Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[Martin Skoula]

Western governments completely botched the way they did things. It is a complete JOKE.

That said. one silver lining for me is that there is renewed interest in science especially in younger generation (increased application for med school, bio-engineering, etc...); I think future generations t are going to be scientifically more literate than the current one; and are gong to be able to achieve a lot more and be able to handle a crisis like the one we are going through a lot better

Shutting down the border isn't a question of scientific literacy though, it's plainly obvious that it would reduce the risk of cases to anyone with a grade school education. The problem is weighing it against economic factors and social justice complaints.

There's going to be more kids in science, but there's also going to be more kids in econ and intersectional virusology through a marxist-feminist lens.

 

[cbbb25]

Is there any conclusive evidence that lockdowns does anything?

I imagine a decrease in spread between employee to employee... but is employee to customer a significant risk factor to spread at all? How significant was employee to employee spread? Does this even change with the current lockdown? I have to imagine no.

I have to imagine that the vast majority of spread is close maskless contact.

Seems like damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Government has to lockdown for PR purposes but realistically the spread of COVID is going to happen if people are getting together for significant periods of time with no mask.

I would have done no business lockdown but actually enforced household limits with no masks.

You think its crazy right now with anti-maskers and anti-lockdown. Imagine having rolling police checks to your residence. It wouldn't be enforceable as I personally just wouldn't open the door. Kicking down the door to stop a small gathering would go viral and they'd have a bigger PR problem.

I hate to say this but were in catch 22. If your business can be open then dont tell me to stay home, stay away from the cottage ect.. The flip side and why ive started to move away from the lockdowns we have now is if households continue to mingle then might as well just open back up.

Im for opening up now but also rolling out rapid tests. Zero clue why that isn't discussed more. Let me go to shoppers buy a $10 test and get my results in 15 minutes.

 

[PromisedLand]

Is there any conclusive evidence that lockdowns does anything?

I imagine a decrease in spread between employee to employee... but is employee to customer a significant risk factor to spread at all? How significant was employee to employee spread? Does this even change with the current lockdown? I have to imagine no.

I have to imagine that the vast majority of spread is close maskless contact.

Seems like damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Government has to lockdown for PR purposes but realistically the spread of COVID is going to happen if people are getting together for significant periods of time with no mask.

I would have done no business lockdown but actually enforced household limits with no masks.

The push for lockdown, at least, in ontario was coming from hospitals and doctors. Ford didn't want to shutdown; they were calling for shutdowns in late oct and nov; ford kept on delaying after finally relenting to it.

There are some % of beds that are always occupied by other patients for number of diseases; then you add the covid load at an increasing rate, hospitals/staff cannot manage it.

Even if somehow they are able to create more space for beds (heck even ICUs) in short time; they cannot get more doctors/nurses/other health professionals; in a short time. Specialized "skill" i.e. medical skill cannot be churned out in a matter of days/months; it requires a lot of studying and testing.

Don't think we have enough healthcare providers in Ontario (heck in all of Canada for that matter). I have been on the list for finding a GP for the last 4 years and still don't have one.

 

[PromisedLand]

Shutting down the border isn't a question of scientific literacy though, it's plainly obvious that it would reduce the risk of cases to anyone with a grade school education. The problem is weighing it against economic factors and social justice complaints.

There's going to be more kids in science, but there's also going to be more kids in econ and intersectional virusology through a marxist-feminist lens.

the kids in econ don't learn much about policy; it is heavily "math" driven (linear algebra, calculas. statistical regressions, matrix algebra. real analysis. etc...) especially the graduate school. I can't comment on other social science discipline because I don't have much knowledge about how the syllabus works for those disciplines.

shutting down the border may not require scientific literacy but making science based decisions requires scientific literacy; the rise in cases basically is a signal that most people are not taking the virus seriously or following protocols (social distancing, mask wearing, washing hands, etc...) because if they were following guidelines and protocols there would not be a rise in cases and we wouldn't be facing lockdowns in Ontario.

 

[Stand Witness]

The push for lockdown, at least, in ontario was coming from hospitals and doctors. Ford didn't want to shutdown; they were calling for shutdowns in late oct and nov; ford kept on delaying after finally relenting to it.

There are some % of beds that are always occupied by other patients for number of diseases; then you add the covid load at an increasing rate, hospitals/staff cannot manage it.

Even if somehow they are able to create more space for beds (heck even ICUs) in short time; they cannot get more doctors/nurses/other health professionals; in a short time. Specialized "skill" i.e. medical skill cannot be churned out in a matter of days/months; it requires a lot of studying and testing.

Don't think we have enough healthcare providers in Ontario (heck in all of Canada for that matter). I have been on the list for finding a GP for the last 4 years and still don't have one.

Yes I understand this. My point is more that I don’t know how much impact lockdowns have on spread... I guess the real benefit of the lockdown is the restrictions on personal gathering and as someone else mentioned above its catch 22... tough for the government to say not to meeting in private while allowing businesses to stay open.

 

[Stand Witness]

You think its crazy right now with anti-maskers and anti-lockdown. Imagine having rolling police checks to your residence. It wouldn't be enforceable as I personally just wouldn't open the door. Kicking down the door to stop a small gathering would go viral and they'd have a bigger PR problem.

I hate to say this but were in catch 22. If your business can be open then dont tell me to stay home, stay away from the cottage ect.. The flip side and why ive started to move away from the lockdowns we have now is if households continue to mingle then might as well just open back up.

Im for opening up now but also rolling out rapid tests. Zero clue why that isn't discussed more. Let me go to shoppers buy a $10 test and get my results in 15 minutes.

i agree, damned if you do and damned if you dont. Lockdown just makes it easiest to implement rules.

 

[Pink Mist]

Yes I understand this. My point is more that I don’t know how much impact lockdowns have on spread... I guess the real benefit of the lockdown is the restrictions on personal gathering and as someone else mentioned above its catch 22... tough for the government to say not to meeting in private while allowing businesses to stay open.

Well if you look at the number of cases in Toronto and Peel since lockdowns have been implemented it has clearly slowed the slowed the curve in those two regions

 

[Stand Witness]

Well if you look at the number of cases in Toronto and Peel since lockdowns have been implemented it has clearly slowed the slowed the curve in those two regions

As I would expect. But a lockdown implements stricter rules on household gathering and public gatherings. Public gatherings have mask to mask contact with significantly less exposure time whereas household gatherings are generally maskless with significantly longer exposure time.

Was/is there a way to restrict household gatherings while not locking down the rest of society? I get it... likely not doable because it’s impossible to tell someone they can be in public together but not in someones house.

 

[PromisedLand]

Yes I understand this. My point is more that I don’t know how much impact lockdowns have on spread... I guess the real benefit of the lockdown is the restrictions on personal gathering and as someone else mentioned above its catch 22... tough for the government to say not to meeting in private while allowing businesses to stay open.

I think initially the plan IMO was the hope that businesses will remain open while people practicing guidelines; but alas that didn't work. It is my belief (don't have data to support it btw) that people who are strongly against lockdowns and anti-masks are the reason behind the lockdowns. They don't follow guidelines and spread the illness.

If you looked at TTC people wore masks but were so close together (busses, streetcars, trains); also - some of the businesses were not following protocols i.e. only have in store capacity at 50% but they didn't care.

I will give you a personal example. My mouse broke; I went to the store to get the mouse; the employee at circuit city that was helping me did not use any hand sanitizer to get the mouse of the wall for me at the same time people coming into the store were touching products hanging on the wall; he touched those products helping someone else and then came to help me.

I usually carry alcohol (70%) spray with me; I used it on the product right in front of him and then sanitized my hands in front of him; and he was looking at me like I am some kind of weird guy.

I think the hope was that people in ontario will take social responsibility for their fellow Ontarians and behave accordingly but as we see it didn't happen.


I watched a YouTube interview (note it is from Oct 8th) yesterday (link below if interested - look at around 1:14:26) - the other stuff might interest you as well (the interview); for the rest it is mostly nerdy about physics and stuff so you can skip it


basically the time stamp i put is saying that technically if everyone practiced guidelines strictly for around 2 or so weeks it would have been over; but people are people (especially the anti-maskers, and deniers who think this virus is not a problem).

It just boils down to the fact that when it comes to social responsibility the people in general have failed IMO

 

[Muston Atthews]

Time for more fear porn. I guess we're going to start counting this one separately than the regular COVID count to REALLY scare people

 

[stealth1]

Time for more fear porn. I guess we're going to start counting this one separately than the regular COVID count to REALLY scare people

If it "scares" people in too going out less then it's a good thing.

 

[Muston Atthews]

If it "scares" people in too going out less then it's a good thing.

Where are people going?

 

[stealth1]

Where are people going?

To the airport.

WARMINGTON: Long line-ups at airport instead of stores on Boxing Day 2020 | Toronto Sun

 

[TheTotalPackage]

To the airport.

WARMINGTON: Long line-ups at airport instead of stores on Boxing Day 2020 | Toronto Sun

Which makes things look worse. Lock things down within so it doesn’t spread. But by all means, fly all over the world and come back home and bring whatever’s there with you.

 

[stealth1]

Which makes things look worse. Lock things down within so it doesn’t spread. But by all means, fly all over the world and come back home and bring whatever’s there with you.

Yes it makes things look worse. Most of those people according to the article aren't leaving the country but going to other provinces due to less restrictions. Again as @PromisedLand posted we failed as people. We keep blaming the government for doing too much or not doing enough. We all don't want to be locked down but we really have no one to blame but ourselves.

 

[HolyCrap]

Which makes things look worse. Lock things down within so it doesn’t spread. But by all means, fly all over the world and come back home and bring whatever’s there with you.

Those people are supposed to quarantine upon returning. But our border is still open for essential business because we have no choice. If we shutdown the border how do we get food and essential supplies to live? It’s a never ending issue. Protect and spend resources on LTC homes, elderly and immune compromised. We will never be able to stop tractor trailers crossing the border with essential goods. Unless starving the folks living in the city and creating civil unrest is better than most folks getting an inconvenient virus. I’m all for only essential stuff crossing borders. There should be no international travel unless it is needed and it’s approved.

 

[justashadowof]

Van Morrison, have we told you lately that we love you?

 

[stealth1]

If only they had warned us.

 

[Nineteen67]

California has done a terrible job with their response.

 

[Jojalu]

California has done a terrible job with their response.

Misleading since the people who point this out, are the same that say cases don't matter.

Deaths and hopsitalizations per 100k are much higher in Florida.

You need to go county by county in California to see where the highest spread rate. The results are not surprising.

I am in any way suggesting lockdowns are the answer, but comparing a state with 40 million to a state with 20 million is not very telling

 

[stealth1]

Misleading since the people who point this out, are the same that say cases don't matter.

Deaths and hopsitalizations per 100k are much higher in Florida.

You need to go county by county in California to see where the highest spread rate. The results are not surprising.

I am in any way suggesting lockdowns are the answer, but comparing a state with 40 million to a state with 20 million is not very telling

The worst part is it could have all been avoided. They have warned us. You know people have to people.

 

[Nineteen67]

Misleading since the people who point this out, are the same that say cases don't matter.

Deaths and hopsitalizations per 100k are much higher in Florida.

You need to go county by county in California to see where the highest spread rate. The results are not surprising.

I am in any way suggesting lockdowns are the answer, but comparing a state with 40 million to a state with 20 million is not very telling

Florida has an older population ( I think Cal is one of the youngest median ages in the country) and yet Florida has been managing their hospital census with basically everything open.

 

[stealth1]

Florida has an older population ( I think Cal is one of the youngest median ages in the country) and yet Florida has been managing their hospital census with basically everything open.

They aren't as densely populated as California is.

 

[Muston Atthews]

 

[moon111]

See how they're partying in Wuhan after proper lock-downs?