Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[Nineteen67]

They aren't as densely populated as California is.

No, but it’s quite dense with a lot of retirement communities.

 

[Jojalu]

Florida has an older population ( I think Cal is one of the youngest median ages in the country) and yet Florida has been managing their hospital census with basically everything open.

But again, California has a much lower hospital bed count per capita. That is an issue we deal with here in Ontario.

Which is probably my biggest issue with governments right now. It seems no one was prepared for any sort of disaster/pandemic to hit.

California should be better prepared as they deal with earthquakes/fires/ and having 40 million people in relatively a small area.

 

[Crazy Monkey]

 

[Jojalu]

Did you read the study?

It points out that Covid has the highest rate of transmission of any other virus. So it will indeed spread to others in your house if you are infected.

It also says since some symptoms are mild, it is easily transmitted if you are in any setting with any other people.

So know you need to convince anyone who is suffering any symptoms whether it is Covid or cold to isolate to not spread. Good luck with that.

This really just says that if people did follow lockdown rules the virus couldn't jump.

 

[Muston Atthews]

See how they're partying in Wuhan after proper lock-downs?

they literally locked people in their houses lmao

 

[Pink Mist]

That's a charitable reading of what that study said. It's not exactly what that study said. It said that their meta-study found limited asymptomatic transmission in the household although there has been limited studies completed on it and the data is likely underrepresentative

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate

We found significantly higher SARs (Secondary Attack Rates)from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic index cases, but many studies acknowledged potential underreporting of asymptomatic cases. There were also relatively few studies with separately reported asymptomatic index cases. Prolonged unprotected exposure to symptomatic case patients increases risk of transmission through respiratory droplets, by direct contact, or contact with fomites.11 Modeling studies have suggested, however, that asymptomatic index cases may also be important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly from presymptomatic cases.

 

[Jojalu]

That's not exactly what that study said. It said that their meta-study found limited asymptomatic transmission in the household although there has been limited studies completed on it and the data is likely underrepresentative

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate

Not just that. The conclusion was we need or should wear masks at home and distance at home.

 

[Nineteen67]

But again, California has a much lower hospital bed count per capita. That is an issue we deal with here in Ontario.

Which is probably my biggest issue with governments right now. It seems no one was prepared for any sort of disaster/pandemic to hit.

California should be better prepared as they deal with earthquakes/fires/ and having 40 million people in relatively a small area.

I don’t know, but it wouldn’t surprise me that they don’t have enough beds out there.

 

[Pink Mist]

Not just that. The conclusion was we need or should wear masks at home and distance at home.

Yep also that.

Important questions remain about the household spread of SARS-CoV-2 including the efficiency of asymptomatic transmission, probability of fecal-oral transmission, role of children in potential of reinfection, and sexual transmission of SARS-CoV-2.102 To prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, people are being asked to stay at home worldwide. With suspected cases frequently referred to isolate at home, household transmission will continue to be a significant source of transmission. Prevention strategies such as increased mask-wearing in the home, improved ventilation, voluntary isolation at external facilities, and targeted antiviral prophylaxis should be explored.[\QUOTE]

 

[Nineteen67]

Not just that. The conclusion was we need or should wear masks at home and distance at home.

High asymptomatic spread was the key to the lockdown proponents- quarantining healthy people.

 

[Pink Mist]

High asymptomatic spread was the key to the lockdown proponents- quarantining healthy people.

Did you read the study or just the misleading headline?

 

[Nineteen67]

Did you read the study or just the misleading headline?

Yes,did you read my post.

 

[Jojalu]

High asymptomatic spread was the key to the lockdown proponents- quaraning healthy people.[/QUOTE

I was under the impression that restrictions were to prevent hospitals from being over run.

This is not a good study for those who believe that we should just get back to normal.

With zero asymptomatic spread, and hospitalizations still high, lowering the restrictions would make matters worse.

Now we have already wasted a year not coming up with a better plan than full lockdown.

Mitigation has to exist in some capacity, but we still need to allow people to earn a living.

It's obvious people are not staying home when they are sick, by the amount of community spread there is if there is no asymptomatic spread.

The presymptomatic spread which this study suggests still exists but at a smaller rate doesn't explain how the virus jumps house to house.

Right now Canada and the US have just over 1% of our respective population that have had the virus with some places taking pretty extreme measures.

With no measures, and that number jumps to 5% of the population being infected, you can expect 5x's the burden on hospitals which would cause real serious issues.

Yet, as so many have said, the virus becomes the tip of the iceberg the longer this drags on. The rest of the issues that we face are still to come

 

[stealth1]

High asymptomatic spread was the key to the lockdown proponents- quarantining healthy people.

No it wasn't. The lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. Something that's happening in California now.

If only we were told this was going to happen things might be different.

Oh wait they did warn us. Instead people had to people.

 

[Muston Atthews]

No it wasn't. The lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. Something that's happening in California now.

If only we were told this was going to happen things might be different.

Oh wait they did warn us. Instead people had to people.

but California has had lockdowns for quite some time and yet their hospitals are overwhelmed. Would you look at that

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

If only they had warned us.

What gives though? California locked down harder than any state in the US and no sane person can use their "Republican state" line for this situation.

It's almost as though the virus runs its course like every other virus regardless what extreme measures we take.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Misleading since the people who point this out, are the same that say cases don't matter.

Deaths and hopsitalizations per 100k are much higher in Florida.

I don't have hospitalization data but it took me 10 seconds to see you're wrong about deaths.

Source:

Coronavirus chart: see how your country compares | Free to read | Financial Times

The average age is much higher in Florida too so we should see a higher death rate if they were even affected the same as California. They clearly aren't.

 

[4thline]

What gives though? California locked down harder than any state in the US and no sane person can use their "Republican state" line for this situation.

It's almost as though the virus runs its course like every other virus regardless what extreme measures we take.

A building collapsed once. It's almost as though buildings will fall down regardless of building codes and engineers.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

They aren't as densely populated as California is.

Wrong again. Florida: 121/km^2, California: 119/km^2.

Florida - Wikipedia

California - Wikipedia

Not trying to be a dick here but don't you guys look these things up before just saying them?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

A building collapsed once. It's almost as though buildings will fall down regardless of building codes and engineers.

But no one designs a building to survive 10 feet of snow or 140 mph winds or a magnitude 8 earthquake. We take a measured approach balancing public safety against completely infeasible and uneconomic design requirements.

 

[Jojalu]

I don't have hospitalization data but it took me 10 seconds to see you're wrong about deaths.

View attachment 380711

Source:

Coronavirus chart: see how your country compares | Free to read | Financial Times

The average age is much higher in Florida too so we should see a higher death rate if they were even affected the same as California. They clearly aren't.

I am not sure I get your chart.

Florida has 21k deaths reported with a population of 20 million, while California has 24k deaths with a 40 million population.

That graph cannot be accurate.

 

[Jojalu]

Wrong again. Florida: 121/km^2, California: 119/km^2.

Florida - Wikipedia

California - Wikipedia

Not trying to be a dick here but don't you guys look these things up before just saying them?

Even this is misleading. While overall California is larger, according to the info you posted, they have the second most populous region as well as the 5th with 18.7 and 9.8 million people in each.

The 18.7 million which is almost the population in Florida live in a much smaller area than the state of Florida

 

[Confucius]

I am not sure I get your chart.

Florida has 21k deaths reported with a population of 20 million, while California has 24k deaths with a 40 million population.

That graph cannot be accurate.

How about this one?
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker


CDC | Updated: Dec 27 2020 2:05PMDownload Data
Skip Table

State/Territory	Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
Tennessee	119.7
California	95.7
Arizona	88
Oklahoma	83.2
Indiana	72.5
West Virginia	71.4
Alabama	68.6
Utah	67.3
Arkansas	65.6
Nevada	64
Delaware	63.6
New York*	63.6
Pennsylvania	63.2
Georgia	62.6
Ohio	61.4
Massachusetts	59.7
Mississippi	57.9
Rhode Island	57.4
North Carolina	56.8
New Mexico	56.5
Idaho	53.7
South Carolina	50.9
New Jersey	50.6
New York City*	50.5
Kentucky	48
Florida	46.4
Kansas	45.4
New Hampshire	45.4
Illinois	44.8
Virginia	44.7
Nebraska	43.7
Louisiana	43.2
Texas	42.7
South Dakota	42.4
Colorado	42.2
Wyoming	40.9
Missouri	40.8
Connecticut	39.9
Maryland	38.7
Wisconsin	37.7
Montana	37.6
Iowa	37
Alaska	34.3
Maine	31.2
Minnesota	30.2
Michigan	29
District of Columbia	27.7
North Dakota	26.7
Washington	26.5
Oregon	22.1
Puerto Rico	21.4
Vermont	14.3
Virgin Islands	9.1
Hawaii	8.5
Guam	6.3
Northern Mariana Islands	1.8
American Samoa	0
Federated States of Micronesia	0
Palau	0
Republic of Marshall Islands	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Jojalu]

How about this one?
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker


CDC | Updated: Dec 27 2020 2:05PMDownload Data
Skip Table

State/Territory	Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
Tennessee	119.7
California	95.7
Arizona	88
Oklahoma	83.2
Indiana	72.5
West Virginia	71.4
Alabama	68.6
Utah	67.3
Arkansas	65.6
Nevada	64
Delaware	63.6
New York*	63.6
Pennsylvania	63.2
Georgia	62.6
Ohio	61.4
Massachusetts	59.7
Mississippi	57.9
Rhode Island	57.4
North Carolina	56.8
New Mexico	56.5
Idaho	53.7
South Carolina	50.9
New Jersey	50.6
New York City*	50.5
Kentucky	48
Florida	46.4
Kansas	45.4
New Hampshire	45.4
Illinois	44.8
Virginia	44.7
Nebraska	43.7
Louisiana	43.2
Texas	42.7
South Dakota	42.4
Colorado	42.2
Wyoming	40.9
Missouri	40.8
Connecticut	39.9
Maryland	38.7
Wisconsin	37.7
Montana	37.6
Iowa	37
Alaska	34.3
Maine	31.2
Minnesota	30.2
Michigan	29
District of Columbia	27.7
North Dakota	26.7
Washington	26.5
Oregon	22.1
Puerto Rico	21.4
Vermont	14.3
Virgin Islands	9.1
Hawaii	8.5
Guam	6.3
Northern Mariana Islands	1.8
American Samoa	0
Federated States of Micronesia	0
Palau	0
Republic of Marshall Islands	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There is no doubt that California has had a brital second go around. No one can dispute that.

Again, I was clearly talking overall numbers from the entire pandemic. As there is always a delay from when cases start to rise, to hospitalizations, to deaths, and the same is true for when counties, states put restrictions into place, what also is true is California is starting to decrease the amount of spread, while Florida is still rising.

We will have to check back in 4-6 weeks to see if what California did will make a big enough difference.

 

[stealth1]

What gives though? California locked down harder than any state in the US and no sane person can use their "Republican state" line for this situation.

It's almost as though the virus runs its course like every other virus regardless what extreme measures we take.

I don't buy the virus runs its course thing. Other places have done well to keep cases low with using measures. Even here, though our numbers have risen, they could have been much worse with out measures in place.

As far as California goes, they put a lot of the blame on them never reopening. Reopening parts of the economy for a period gives people some relief. A lot of people there have stopped following guidelines.