from the article
Many factors influence how the coronavirus spreads.
The researchers took an admittedly uncomplicated approach — Butler called it “a fairly simple mathematical model” — and used that to assess several scenarios, varying the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from people who never develop symptoms.
The
model consistently predicted asymptomatic spread accounted for roughly half of viral transmission.
But Muge Cevik, an infectious-disease expert at Scotland’s University of St. Andrews, argued some of the model’s assumptions are flawed.
Cevik also noted the study does not account for the environment where the spread occurs.
“
Maybe asymptomatic transmission is important, but it may be much more important in long-term care facilities and households,” Cevik said. “That might mean that we need to do much more targeted testing for high-risk populations,” as opposed to mass screening.
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