Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[Confucius]

Again... masks protect others from you.

If the staff wear masks, they are protecting residents. If residents do not, the masks that the workers wear are about 20% effective.

It's completely logical to see similar infection rates in scenarios like that.

Has anyone explained the science behind why masks protect others but not you? Why does it work like that? The rates are actually much higher the numbers are the same. I made the initial error by calling it rates. The reason being there are definitely less staff than residents.

I'm thinking the reason for the higher staff infections, is the residents are probably confined to their rooms and isolated. While staff go room to room.

 

[Pookie]

And there's many more super spreader events in the VOD that would make Doug Ford, John Tory and all our medical experts heads simultaneously explode if they watched it. Mask wearing is high, but there's zero social distancing and just plenty of people enjoying life.

So... let's be real about the Island of Japan.

Here's what is happening now:

Japan, along with its neighbor South Korea, is seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as cold winter temperatures set in. Winter was always expected to bring a spike in cases, as cold weather sends people indoors to poorly ventilated spaces -- conditions likely to make coronavirus spread more easily.

In Japan, cases have been rising steadily since the start of last month. On November 1, just over 600 cases were reported. Twenty days later there were more than 2,500 daily infections.

The country reported 2,988 COVID-19 cases and 51 deaths on Wednesday, bringing the nationwide total to 187,815.

The number of patients in critical condition and in intensive care remains at its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic at 618 people, up 26 cases from the previous day.

Large urban centers like the capital Tokyo are reporting their highest level of infections and the number of people hospitalized is rising. On Wednesday, Tokyo reported 1,960 patients are under medical care and 69 people are in serious condition in intensive care.

Japanese leader appears to flout virus guidelines as country grapples with record cases​

As for enjoying life, I feel sad if you can't find some positives in our current situation.

I am enjoying not having a commute into Toronto and not putting 35,000 kms on my car. I'm loving turning off my laptop and being to make dinner for the family. I'm enjoying taking the dogs on long walks with my wife. I'm enjoying learning new tunes to play on my Bass. I enjoyed a summer of golf and got in a few runs before the ski hills closed. I got plenty of time to cycle in the summer. My lawn was fantastic looking before the snow came. I'm enjoying a glass of wine by the fire. I'm enjoying having time to use the home gym everyday (well not today, had a little too much wine). I'm enjoying a new book. Restarting a mindfulness meditation practice. I'm enjoying talking with my kids. Not experiencing flight delays and uncomfortable hotel sleeps while being on the road. I'm connecting with my dad and mom every day to check in on them and seeing acts of kindness.

Yeah, I think it sucks the ski hills are closed and that I didn't get to see Green Day last summer and it's questionable for this summer. I think it sucks that I can't have dinner with my parents.

But I either rally against it or accept it and try to find something positive to experience. The world has been around for billions of years. We only get consciousness for a short period of time and then that's that.

Hopefully, you can find some of your own positives.

 

[Confucius]

"...our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs..."

Correction: our government could have invested a *tiny fraction* of those resources into protecting LTCs and gotten a much better result. It's absolutely shameful they haven't figured this out yet.

Governments are really just people. When they realize they are mistaken they just avoid the topic rather than come out and say, we were wrong.

 

[Pookie]

Has anyone explained the science behind why masks protect others but not you? Why does it work like that?

Yes.

The virus is spread by droplets and aerosolized particles.

Let's do this.

I have Covid and I don't wear a mask. You are infection free you have a mask on.

I sneeze.

Your eyes are not protected by a mask. The particles can easily get into your body.

Another route for those droplets is through the mask. A double cloth mask will catch some of them but they are no where near as effective as an N95 Respirator which filters out the small particles. And "neck gaiters" are the least effective of all of them.

Wearing a double cloth mask in that scenario gives you an 8 in 10 chance of getting Covid.

Another factor is distance. Without a mask, my sneeze can travel up to 12 feet. With a mask, the droplets only go a few inches.

Now, assume you still have your mask. I have Covid and I wear one.

When I sneeze, I sneeze into the mask.

My mask catches quite a few of the particles and droplets but some will escape. However, the actual "viral load" of particles in the air is much lower. You may catch a stray particle in the eye but it likely not going to be significant enough to cause an infection. Or it may work it's way through your cloth mask but again, not in significant quantity to get you infected.

There's still a risk but it has been measured to be as low as 1.5%. So in absolute terms, if someone has Covid and is wearing a mask and you wear a mask, it's more effective than any vaccine in preventing transmission.

Does that help?

 

[Pookie]

If interested, this is a good look at the types of masks available and how effective they are in preventing the release of droplets

Masks Save Lives: Duke Study Confirms Which Ones Work Best | Hartford HealthCare

For those who really want to understand the science behind masks and transmission but don't want to wade through medical journals , this is a great visual presentation

Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Has anyone explained the science behind why masks protect others but not you? Why does it work like that? The rates are actually much higher the numbers are the same. I made the initial error by calling it rates. The reason being there are definitely less staff than residents.

I'm thinking the reason for the higher staff infections, is the residents are probably confined to their rooms and isolated. While staff go room to room.

In all honesty, the theory does make sense to me. The mask stops my droplets from getting out but isn't very effective at stopping aerosols from getting in. That makes sense and is consistent with masks helping somewhat (very difficult to measure how much). I'm personally not an anti-masker. I'm totally willing to follow guidelines that are easy if it helps get us out of this.

 

[Confucius]

In all honesty, the theory does make sense to me. The mask stops my droplets from getting out but isn't very effective at stopping aerosols from getting in. That makes sense and is consistent with masks helping somewhat (very difficult to measure how much). I'm personally not an anti-masker. I'm totally willing to follow guidelines that are easy if it helps get us out of this.

I find it all a learning process, I think I've learned much more than the average person, just by reading this thread. I always wear a mask as well and am not an anti masker either. Spent Newyears eve at home with the wife, no party here... again

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I find it all a learning process, I think I've learned much more than the average person, just by reading this thread. I always wear a mask as well and am not an anti masker either. Spent Newyears eve at home with the wife, no party here... again

Yes, I've learned quite a bit here too. And for good measure, the discussion has a local slant. Probably why I keep following these threads.

 

[Pookie]

For me, that's why I have so much disdain for anti-maskers, protests and the like.

Might as well be going around to the hospital and throw a middle finger to the ICUs.

If you see someone without a mask in a store, stay far away. Even those ones that wear a mask but don't cover their nose. Like 12 feet of space.

Their choice puts YOU at extreme risk even if you are doing all the right things.

 

[Confucius]

Yes, I've learned quite a bit here too. And for good measure, the discussion has a local slant. Probably why I keep following these threads.

Not much else to do these days... LOL
Happy Newyear!

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Not much else to do these days... LOL
Happy Newyear!

Thanks and same.

 

[Muston Atthews]

How bad are these optics

 

[Mickey Marner]

Toronto is cracking down on illicit tobogganing and skating and people think it's ridiculous

Gotta' crackdown on those socially distanced outdoor activities, so we can make sure everyone remains indoors and can continue to spread the virus much more efficiently.

 

[blueberrie]

I've posted recently graphics showing our hospital ICU numbers are no different this year in ON than previous years. The overwhelm never happened.

We built an emergency hospital in Burlington back in the Spring. It's remained empty.

link?

The overwhelm may not have happened in Ontario but would/could it have without mitigation efforts?

We’ve seen the overwhelm in a couple places so far, Italy, Bay Area, El Paso.

 

[Nineteen67]

Yes.

The virus is spread by droplets and aerosolized particles.

Let's do this.

I have Covid and I don't wear a mask. You are infection free you have a mask on.

I sneeze.

Your eyes are not protected by a mask. The particles can easily get into your body.

Another route for those droplets is through the mask. A double cloth mask will catch some of them but they are no where near as effective as an N95 Respirator which filters out the small particles. And "neck gaiters" are the least effective of all of them.

Wearing a double cloth mask in that scenario gives you an 8 in 10 chance of getting Covid.

Another factor is distance. Without a mask, my sneeze can travel up to 12 feet. With a mask, the droplets only go a few inches.

Now, assume you still have your mask. I have Covid and I wear one.

When I sneeze, I sneeze into the mask.

My mask catches quite a few of the particles and droplets but some will escape. However, the actual "viral load" of particles in the air is much lower. You may catch a stray particle in the eye but it likely not going to be significant enough to cause an infection. Or it may work it's way through your cloth mask but again, not in significant quantity to get you infected.

There's still a risk but it has been measured to be as low as 1.5%. So in absolute terms, if someone has Covid and is wearing a mask and you wear a mask, it's more effective than any vaccine in preventing transmission.

Does that help?

Nope. Sneezes? Nope.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yes.

The virus is spread by droplets and aerosolized particles.

Let's do this.

I have Covid and I don't wear a mask. You are infection free you have a mask on.

I sneeze.

Your eyes are not protected by a mask. The particles can easily get into your body.

Another route for those droplets is through the mask. A double cloth mask will catch some of them but they are no where near as effective as an N95 Respirator which filters out the small particles. And "neck gaiters" are the least effective of all of them.

Wearing a double cloth mask in that scenario gives you an 8 in 10 chance of getting Covid.

Another factor is distance. Without a mask, my sneeze can travel up to 12 feet. With a mask, the droplets only go a few inches.

Now, assume you still have your mask. I have Covid and I wear one.

When I sneeze, I sneeze into the mask.

My mask catches quite a few of the particles and droplets but some will escape. However, the actual "viral load" of particles in the air is much lower. You may catch a stray particle in the eye but it likely not going to be significant enough to cause an infection. Or it may work it's way through your cloth mask but again, not in significant quantity to get you infected.

There's still a risk but it has been measured to be as low as 1.5%. So in absolute terms, if someone has Covid and is wearing a mask and you wear a mask, it's more effective than any vaccine in preventing transmission.

Does that help?

But Covid spreads primarily via aerosols. That’s why n-95 masks are remarkably effective, but cloth masks aren’t really effective at all.

 

[Pookie]

But Covid spreads primarily via aerosols. That’s why n-95 masks are remarkably effective, but cloth masks aren’t really effective at all.

I mentioned "aerosolized" particles.

Check the link to the Duke study on the different mask types and effectiveness (posted above). There are different types of cloth masks studied as well as bandanas, neck gaiters, different N95, etc. I think they did 14-15 different masks.

 

[Nineteen67]

Has anyone explained the science behind why masks protect others but not you? Why does it work like that? The rates are actually much higher the numbers are the same. I made the initial error by calling it rates. The reason being there are definitely less staff than residents.

I'm thinking the reason for the higher staff infections, is the residents are probably confined to their rooms and isolated. While staff go room to room.

There have been a few studies and marginally at best does a mask prevent spread of an aerosolized virus - you won’t get spit on by a spittle talker The most recent one was published sometime in November.
If someone is shedding the virus and they wearing a mask for a long period of time, one could assume the moisture that collects on the mask would contain some of the virus, so they may actually expel more of the virus with each breath, not just around it, but through it.
During surges, the only thing you can do is stay away from people if you are n the high risk group.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mentioned "aerosolized" particles.

Check the link to the Duke study on the different mask types and effectiveness (posted above). There are different types of cloth masks studied as well as bandanas, neck gaiters, different N95, etc. I think they did 14-15 different masks.

The Duke study has no mention of aerosols and focuses entirely on droplets. I'm not disagreeing that cloth masks have a benefit in stopping droplets. And being that covid also spreads via droplets, cloth masks do help in a very small capacity. But then of course... the aerosols.

The Center For Infecious Disease Reserach and Policy (CIDRAP) has long maintained that their research suggests:
1: Covid spreads primarily via aerosols
2: Cloth masks don't stop aerosols, but n-95 masks stop aerosols very well
3: Cloth masks may help a little due to droplet spread, but people have a very exaggerated understanding of how effective they are
4: There should be a MUCH greater emphasis from governments, experts, media, etc. to focus on n-95 masks and mass produce them
5: masks have become so political that stances like theirs (n-95 masks are WAY more effective and we should focus on them) are seen as "anti-mask trumpers". To the point of them receiving death threats for their "anti-mask" evidence

 

[Pookie]

The Duke study has no mention of aerosols and focuses entirely on droplets. I'm not disagreeing that cloth masks have a benefit in stopping droplets. And being that covid also spreads via droplets, cloth masks do help in a very small capacity. But then of course... the aerosols.

The Center For Infecious Disease Reserach and Policy (CIDRAP) has long maintained that their research suggests:
1: Covid spreads primarily via aerosols
2: Cloth masks don't stop aerosols, but n-95 masks stop aerosols very well
3: Cloth masks may help a little due to droplet spread, but people have a very exaggerated understanding of how effective they are
4: There should be a MUCH greater emphasis from governments, experts, media, etc. to focus on n-95 masks and mass produce them
5: masks have become so political that stances like theirs (n-95 masks are WAY more effective and we should focus on them) are seen as "anti-mask trumpers". To the point of them receiving death threats for their "anti-mask" evidence

When reading the literature about masks, you’ve got to be very cognizant of whether they are talking about an infected person wearing a mask or about the mask’s ability to protect the wearer FROM droplets.

a number of studies on the infected person wearing a mask are pretty clear about the effectiveness of cloth masks in reducing both the amount of contagion and the distance it can travel.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

When reading the literature about masks, you’ve got to be very cognizant of whether they are talking about an infected person wearing a mask or about the mask’s ability to protect the wearer FROM droplets.

a number of studies on the infected person wearing a mask are pretty clear about the effectiveness of cloth masks in reducing both the amount of contagion and the distance it can travel.

I agree that an infected person wearing a mask helps a little. But because it doesn't block aerosols in the slightest, the general public has a VERY exaggerated understanding of their effectiveness. Hence, why the focus should be on n-95. Even you agree that n-95 masks are FAR better. So why isn't there a focus on them?

 

[stealth1]

I agree that an infected person wearing a mask helps a little. But because it doesn't block aerosols in the slightest, the general public has a VERY exaggerated understanding of their effectiveness. Hence, why the focus should be on n-95. Even you agree that n-95 masks are FAR better. So why isn't there a focus on them?

Instead of focusing on masks, the focus should be on staying away from others.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Instead of focusing on masks, the focus should be on staying away from others.

Yes, the CIDRAP says the precise same thing.

Two people in cloth masks not social distancing gets a free pass. No shaming for it. As though it's impossible to get covid if they have cloth masks on, so they're safe.

But now two people NOT in masks, but social distancing? That's where the "mask shaming" comes in. Even though they're actually safer than the 2 in the previous example.

It shows just how far this has gone. Masks became a political issue. Social distancing didn't. So now people have a VERY false understanding about how effective each measure is. And what's worse... the uninformed ones affected by politicization and the media act like THEY'RE the informed educated ones. It's maddening.

 

[Pookie]

I agree that an infected person wearing a mask helps a little. But because it doesn't block aerosols in the slightest, the general public has a VERY exaggerated understanding of their effectiveness. Hence, why the focus should be on n-95. Even you agree that n-95 masks are FAR better. So why isn't there a focus on them?

they are really hard to source.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

they are really hard to source.

Maybe if people listened to the actual experts I linked, instead of pseudo-science, society at large would have worked harder to get everyone in n-95 masks. Instead, we falsely believe the cloth masks are effective. It's a problem.