Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[nsleaf]

Yes this virus is so contagious that again, if you placed EVERY SINGLE confirmed infection in Canada into only Ontario, 96% of all Ontarians would still be covid free right now. And then on top of that even if you do catch the virus, your chances of dying from it are minimal and on top of that for the vast majority of people who are infected they're largely only moderately to not affected at all by the virus. That's TOTALLY what we should be going insane over.



Again there are almost 3 MILLION seniors living in Ontario and even in that most vulnerable group of people who are hit hardest by this virus, we've only seen about 4,200 seniors die to the virus to date. Let me repeat 4,200 deaths out of almost 3 MILLION seniors.



I think it helps ALOT when you have a physical water seperation from the rest of the world and can control much better who can and cannot come into your country and also the entire African continent counters your argument when 1.2 BILLION people there have only about 64,000 covid deaths to date with vastly fewer and inferior medical systems to treat them and probably much worse following of the rules for reducing covid spread.

Nigeria has a population of 195 million and yet they're still sitting at about 1,300 deaths. Do you really, serious want me to believe that Nigeria is handling the pandemic vastly better than Canada is even with their hugely inferior medical resources at their disposal? Yeah ok.



The thing is the seniors you're talking about are the ones in the general population, but the seniors I'm talking about are the ones in long term care homes who are nearing the end of their lives. When we're talking about people who aren't even healthy enough to clean themselves, eat on their own or go out the door and do normal things and require constant around the clock care to keep them alive, those people most definitely don't have long to live and in many cases have far surpassed their normal life expectancy except thanks to modern medicine and personal care that are keeping them alive for a while longer.

People in this category can and do die to any number of causes every single year by the thousands. It just so happens that in this year many of them are dying to covid instead of the flu, heart attack, stroke etc. As much as we want to save everyone, I don't think stopping society for these people is worth the trade off even if it actually worked which obviously it hasn't. Just let society move on and give these seniors the best care possible and protect them as much as you can and leave it at that.

Do you believe the numbers being reported by most African countries? How does their inferior health care systems keep up such accurate testing?

 

[Bluelines]

what an odd bit of mental gymnastics.

if you put all infected cases in Ontario, it’s only 4% of the population right now.

ok.

know why?

because of mitigation efforts.

let’s say it together.... mitigation efforts.

if we had the USA’s divided response our death rate would be more than double what it is now based on per capita averages.

fortunately, anti-maskers and hoax conspiracy nut jobs are fewer in number.

as for your last point, do what we can to protect them.... we are. That’s what you are upset about

So the poster you replied to is among the population that feels if we did nothing the stats that we currently have would just overlay and we would have the same number (%) of deaths. Which if you put just a little thought into it, you would have to think what happens if every one gets sick all at the same time, what happens if hospitals are over capacity to treat people, how many people who received treatment and lived as a result would now die because there is no opportunity for treatment. From a military perspective what if we do nothing and our resources are focused inwards are we weaker from a defence strategy? How would mass infections affect our economy?

Maybe I'm wrong but IMO Canada strategy is to slow down the bleed until a vaccine is avail. It's not a perfect strategy but based on the results in other industrialized western economies, its a pretty effective approach.

 

[Bluelines]

Do you believe the numbers being reported by most African countries? How does their inferior health care systems keep up such accurate testing?

I don't believe in their numbers are close to accurate but a good article on Covid-19 and Africia Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere

 

[Confucius]

So the poster you replied to is among the population that feels if we did nothing the stats that we currently have would just overlay and we would have the same number (%) of deaths. Which if you put just a little thought into it, you would have to think what happens if every one gets sick all at the same time, what happens if hospitals are over capacity to treat people, how many people who received treatment and lived as a result would now die because there is no opportunity for treatment. From a military perspective what if we do nothing and our resources are focused inwards are we weaker from a defence strategy? How would mass infections affect our economy?

Maybe I'm wrong but IMO Canada strategy is to slow down the bleed until a vaccine is avail. It's not a perfect strategy but based on the results in other industrialized western economies, its a pretty effective approach.

The best approach would have been to shutdown everything but true essentials for 28 days. Then reopen everything, once numbers started increasing shutdown everything again for 28 days. Instead of picking and choosing who's lives will be ruined by keeping selected businesses locked down for going on a year shortly. While their competitors pickup the slack by selling more through the increased business. Passing off the wishy washy plan we have as good is just silly.

Thankfully, nobody in our household has covid yet. If one gets it, it will come from outside.

 

[Clark4Ever]

The best approach would have been to shutdown everything but true essentials for 28 days. Then reopen everything, once numbers started increasing shutdown everything again for 28 days. Instead of picking and choosing who's lives will be ruined by keeping selected businesses locked down for going on a year shortly. While their competitors pickup the slack by selling more through the increased business. Passing off the wishy washy plan we have as good is just silly.

Thankfully, nobody in our household has covid yet. If one gets it, it will come from outside.

In theory, that could work. In reality, I find it hard to believe that people won't continue to congregate in private gatherings, and the community spread would continue regardless.

Most small businesses should have never been shut down in the first place. I have been out shopping many times at various grocery/retail outlets throughout the pandemic and everyone I encountered has been wearing a mask and respecting the physical distancing guidelines.

 

[Pookie]

The best approach would have been to shutdown everything but true essentials for 28 days. Then reopen everything, once numbers started increasing shutdown everything again for 28 days. Instead of picking and choosing who's lives will be ruined by keeping selected businesses locked down for going on a year shortly. While their competitors pickup the slack by selling more through the increased business. Passing off the wishy washy plan we have as good is just silly.

Thankfully, nobody in our household has covid yet. If one gets it, it will come from outside.

I can see both cases.

In either, more strict enforcement of fines for folks that travelled outside of their zones, refused to wear masks or held gathers above the limits would have also been helpful.

Including fining Ford and now Hillier.

It's hard to think how there wouldn't be economic hardship in some sectors regardless of method selected. Even when we could go out and eat in the summer, we didn't want to. Take out, sure. But dining with strangers? Nope.

And we have to be careful in blaming Covid on business failures. Retail was in trouble long before Covid as online shopping was growing at a rapid pace.

Incidentally, over half of Amazon's revenue comes from 3rd party sellers using their platform and of those that use it, some 80% are profitable in the first year.

Restaurants are notoriously risky businesses to be involved with. Some hit and some don't.

The other side of the coin is that some businesses have done very well during the pandemic. A friend of mine owns a manufacturing business. He switched production to make PPE. He's hiring.

Real Estate is booming. As is the home reno business, including home reno retailers. Boat sales. Sleds. Home exercise gear. Grocery business is thriving as we are eating out less. Courier services. Gaming companies. Communication companies like Zoom. Automobiles. Netflix. Some medical device manufacturers. Distributors. Pharmacies.

Of course others face significant hardship and I would hope we can start a move to renewables, invest in vaccine manufacturing and distribution and local PPE manufacturing and get people working again in meaningful jobs, with services we need.

 

[Bluelines]

The best approach would have been to shutdown everything but true essentials for 28 days. Then reopen everything, once numbers started increasing shutdown everything again for 28 days. Instead of picking and choosing who's lives will be ruined by keeping selected businesses locked down for going on a year shortly. While their competitors pickup the slack by selling more through the increased business. Passing off the wishy washy plan we have as good is just silly.

Thankfully, nobody in our household has covid yet. If one gets it, it will come from outside.

I think if your only consideration was prevent Covid, the approach you mention would make some sense but unfortunately we don't live in a country where you can shut down everything for a month and not have considerable negative side effects. Even with shutting down the country for 28 days, the virus will still find its way into this country then what do we do after that 28 day lock down, do we lock down for another 28 days? You see the reaction when people are asked to wear masks, imagine their reaction if we said, everyone is quarantined to your house for 28 days, there would be a lot of people put in jail for violating that order. Imagine drug addicts going 28 days with out supply, gambling addicts, alcoholics, some people may say that is their problem but you take away their addiction for 28 days, their problem might be yours, maybe they break into your house looking or money, booze, drugs.

Certain things like medical supplies have to be transported during those 28 days.

Your idea, while is logical, I think has considerable logistical issues.

Short of inventing a vaccine day one, I don't think there is a plan that is perfect and pain free.

 

[Bluelines]

Real Estate is booming.

I can attest to this, I sold/moved in the spring. At the time my house set a high record for that neighborhood ( it was listed for less than 2 weeks), then that record was broken a week later, then a few days after that the next sale broke another record. A friend sold his house a year ago (July 2019) on the same street.. similar houses ... my house sold (May 2020) for $73k more than his. If you were selling spring of 2020 was the time to sell, as new home builders had not inflated their prices (cost of lumber did not hit them till a few months later) and people who were selling were selling quickly and at a premium.

The Real Estate agent said I was asking too much, I told him I know what I'm doing , list it at the price I want, 2 weeks later it sold at a really high price for that street.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

In theory, that could work. In reality, I find it hard to believe that people won't continue to congregate in private gatherings, and the community spread would continue regardless.

Most small businesses should have never been shut down in the first place. I have been out shopping many times at various grocery/retail outlets throughout the pandemic and everyone I encountered has been wearing a mask and respecting the physical distancing guidelines.

That would still curb it a lot, but the best way to do it would just to prevent people from going out at all. Just make it an absolute ghost town for 2 weeks. So if people are moving around privately, then it should still mostly run its course.

Another alternative would be to figure out enforcement. No more trusting people, because they have proven they can't be trusted, and there is practically no enforcement right now. People can blatantly post crap on social media showing they are clearly breaking the rules and they don't face any consequences.

My question would be how they do it in places which have natural disasters which force people inside every year? Couldn't you adapt a model similar to that one?

 

[Confucius]

We could shutdown our borders, we don't have to be an Island country. We could have closed the airports to international travel. We could have eliminated buses that had U S destinations. We could quarantine foreign ships at their ports for 14 days. Heck, I'm sure many products get held up at the border and customs for much longer periods of time already. We could have come up with a system to quarantine food at the border for 5 to 7 days and have the merch moved into Canada by Canadian truckers.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Contrast that to the continent of Africa who are collectively sitting at about 2.7 million cases and 64,000 deaths to date. Does anyone seriously believe that African nations with their vastly inferior medical systems and lack of advanced resources is handling the pandemic orders of magnitude better than western countries are? Yeah I doubt it. This simply comes down to Africa being lucky that their much, MUCH younger population is largely unaffected by this virus unlike much of the rest of the world where any nation that has an older, less healthy population is going to get hit hard.

I think the lack of cases in Africa is more due to many cases not being reported due to those inferior medical systems and lack of advanced resources you're speaking of.

 

[Confucius]

I think the lack of cases in Africa is more due to many cases not being reported due to those inferior medical systems and lack of advanced resources you're speaking of.

It may be a climate thing unlike smallpox etc. Everyone knew a second wave was coming in the fall. why? Why did a second wave have to come and why in the fall? This round will ease in the warmer months and in my opinion it will have nothing to do with the measures taken thus far. It will all be weather related.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

We’ve known since July that ~ 70 % of the spread occurs in homes and other places where people are gathering in close proximity with poor ventilation for extended periods.
Even with all the size limits on gatherings it still spreads like seasonal viruses spread.
It has nothing to do with letting your guard down.

If we've known, there should be some easily accessible stat or info no?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Probably because we can live our normal lives and not have the flu bring our healthcare system to the ground?

Which past flu season had provincial and federal governments planning to build a field hospital in Alberta? Have we ever had a flu season force hospitals to ration O2 and stretch ventilator/ICU capacity to the limit? Double bunk kids in the paediatric wing?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5843814

We’re doing more for covid because covid is deadlier, spreads easier and puts more people in the hospital.

Your core point is right though, we probably should be doing a lot more for flu, wearing a mask when we are feeling sick, not going to work when sick, washing hands much more frequently.

I've posted recently graphics showing our hospital ICU numbers are no different this year in ON than previous years. The overwhelm never happened.

We built an emergency hospital in Burlington back in the Spring. It's remained empty.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It is all relative to every other countries GDP and we are still at top of G7 ... I know I am losing $$$ everyday on US$ ... but I am scared to bet da other way due to historical trends in an election year ... but da world can't keep on funding this thing that we can agree on

I don't trust anything right now so I'm in the process of buying a commercial/residential property in Hamilton. Not even a great deal and I don't care. Bitcoin and gold are probably great bets for people willing to stomach market fluctuations. I know now I can't. Real estate is the only thing I've ever done well with all that's that. Leveraging it all to buy something just so I don't have to see the market value every day.

 

[Nineteen67]

If we've known, there should be some easily accessible stat or info no?

We have it.

 

[Nineteen67]

If we've known, there should be some easily accessible stat or info no?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Not sure if there was an image you posted. It didn't show up for me.

 

[Nineteen67]

Not sure if there was an image you posted. It didn't show up for me.

It’s from google docs....

anyway with roughly 46k data points

74% of spread is from households and social gatherings
8% healthcare
2% colleges
1.4% restaurants and bars

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It’s from google docs....

anyway with roughly 46k data points

74% of spread is from households and social gatherings
8% healthcare
2% colleges
1.4% restaurants and bars

Thanks, I'll review. I probably need my laptop to see the link.

 

[Confucius]

Thanks, I'll review. I probably need my laptop to see the link.

Laptop won't help, as I don't see anything either.

 

[Confucius]

almost 2 hrs to go to the local grocery store. Sure glad there is a lockdown, otherwise I may never have gotten back.

 

[stealth1]

almost 2 hrs to go to the local grocery store. Sure glad there is a lockdown, otherwise I may never have gotten back.

Even before Covid it was always like this. I don't get why everyone panics cause stores are closed tomorrow. Ya'll worried you are going to run out of food one day.

 

[Confucius]

Even before Covid it was always like this. I don't get why everyone panics cause stores are closed tomorrow. Ya'll worried you are going to run out of food one day.

we only shop one day at a time, sometimes we can miss a day. You are correct it was always like this...

 

[Future]

It’s from google docs....

anyway with roughly 46k data points

74% of spread is from households and social gatherings
8% healthcare
2% colleges
1.4% restaurants and bars

This is pretty sad. I’ve even spoken to a number of my friends who are planning to gather with at least one other person outside their household for New Years. Really doesn’t make sense. I get Christmas with family, but why New Years during another lockdown with cases at an all time high? Especially if you live with people that are at-risk?

Obviously the data does not support shutting down these small businesses. But this is the kind of behaviour that’s driving these lockdowns, and it’s starting to piss me off. Many people just don’t care about any of this and can’t even wait a few weeks, especially if the restrictions get in the way of them getting laid or gathering with friends.