Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[The Hanging Jowl]

So masks cured the flu but somehow Covid still thrives requiring more lockdowns? How can Covid cases continue to climb but flu cases have gone to zero? That makes no sense. WHO stopped recording Influenza entirely ffs.

Yup and the typical response is that flu went away this year because of social distancing, masks, etc. But that's a catch-22 for the true believers because the obvious question is why don't we shutter businesses, bankrupt our country and mandate masks, etc., forever to save as many of the 8,000 people as we can that die from flu and flu related pneumonia every year in Canada?

If you're willing to do it for one transmissible disease, why not another? And true, flu isn't as deadly or transmittable but then why don't we implement half of the measures, or a quarter or whatever fraction you fancy, that we have for Covid? Even 10% of what we've done for Covid would mean $30B+ in government spending every year to fight the flu. But of course, we've never done that. Why not? People dying of the flu don't matter? Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

The ones that are ticketed aren't following the rules. Its not the government dividing us, its us dividing us. The vaccine will be readily available soon and this will all be over.

Are you aware that our health experts now say more than a million Canadians per month need to be vaccinated to avoid a *third* wave and even our prime minister admits the vaccine won't be widely available until next fall? Keep dreaming that the vaccine will get you into your theme parks this summer 'cause it ain't happening. At this rate, we'll be lucky to avoid a fourth wave if we're pinnng all of our hopes on a vaccine. And we still don't even know how effective it will be in stopping the spread.

National Post: WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission.
WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission | National Post

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Bled dry. Last time I looked there is many ways businesses and people can get financial aid due to Covid.

And our national debt is now forecast to top $1.4T. You think this financial aid is sustainable?

 

[Pookie]

Yup and the typical response is that flu went away this year because of social distancing, masks, etc. But that's a catch-22 for the true believers because the obvious question is why don't we shutter businesses, bankrupt our country and mandate masks, etc., forever to save as many of the 8,000 people as we can that die from flu and flu related pneumonia every year in Canada?

If you're willing to do it for one transmissible disease, why not another? And true, flu isn't as deadly or transmittable but then why don't we implement half of the measures, or a quarter or whatever fraction you fancy, that we have for Covid? Even 10% of what we've done for Covid would mean $30B+ in government spending every year to fight the flu. But of course, we've never done that. Why not? People dying of the flu don't matter? Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me.

The Flu:

1. There is a vaccine for the flu

2. There are therapeutics for the flu, including anti-viral medication

3. The flu is most contagious 3 days after symptoms appear.

4. There is no asymptomatic transmission of the flu

——-
Covid:

1. We have had no vaccine for Covid and it won’t be until the fall until enough of the population has taken it

2. There have been very few effective treatments to date

3. Covid is most contagious during the incubation period when no symptoms are present

4. Some people never get symptoms and become asymptomatic spreaders

That’s why.

 

[Pookie]

Are you aware that our health experts now say more than a million Canadians per month need to be vaccinated to avoid a *third* wave and even our prime minister admits the vaccine won't be widely available until next fall? Keep dreaming that the vaccine will get you into your theme parks this summer 'cause it ain't happening. At this rate, we'll be lucky to avoid a fourth wave if we're pinnng all of our hopes on a vaccine. And we still don't even know how effective it will be in stopping the spread.

National Post: WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission.
WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission | National Post

So yes, you may still be vaccinated and able to spread Covid.

but if everyone gets vaccinated, it won’t spread as there won’t be hosts to go to.

95% of the population globally has taken a polio vaccine. That’s where we will likely have to get with this one.

summer would be optimistic in my mind. But with vaccination and mask wearing which reduces an infected person’s ability to spread, businesses can be open safely. Events could resume.

the “normal” will look different. But it’s highly dependent on vaccination for personal protection.

probably every year.

 

[Stigma]

Are there any places where the overwhelming majority of the people don’t were mask? I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen someone without one in public. The don’t seem to be very effective at preventing people from spreading this virus.

Yep, everyone is wearing masks. I have been out of my house and back to work since May. I've spent most of my time in the hot zones too.....Brampton, Mississauga, and Toronto. The amount of people I've seen in indoor spaces, since May, is in the thousands. I saw one guy without a mask at Bestbuy. LOL. One.

 

[Nineteen67]

So yes, you may still be vaccinated and able to spread Covid.

but if everyone gets vaccinated, it won’t spread as there won’t be hosts to go to.

95% of the population globally has taken a polio vaccine. That’s where we will likely have to get with this one.

summer would be optimistic in my mind. But with vaccination and mask wearing which reduces an infected person’s ability to spread, businesses can be open safely. Events could resume.

the “normal” will look different. But it’s highly dependent on vaccination for personal protection.

probably every year.

Vaccinated Every year?

 

[Nineteen67]

Have you said anything new in the last month? And could you please point out where you're getting this from? I've searched pretty hard and I can't find anything that shows or states that household transmission is the primary cause of Covid spread right now. Please share.

We’ve known since July that ~ 70 % of the spread occurs in homes and other places where people are gathering in close proximity with poor ventilation for extended periods.
Even with all the size limits on gatherings it still spreads like seasonal viruses spread.
It has nothing to do with letting your guard down.

 

[Pink Mist]

So yes, you may still be vaccinated and able to spread Covid.

but if everyone gets vaccinated, it won’t spread as there won’t be hosts to go to.

95% of the population globally has taken a polio vaccine. That’s where we will likely have to get with this one.

summer would be optimistic in my mind. But with vaccination and mask wearing which reduces an infected person’s ability to spread, businesses can be open safely. Events could resume.

the “normal” will look different. But it’s highly dependent on vaccination for personal protection.

probably every year.

Not to mention that the vaccine reduces severe reactions to the virus which will help give relief to the hospitals during the pandemic

 

[Nineteen67]

Not to mention that the vaccine reduces severe reactions to the virus which will help give relief to the hospitals during the pandemic

That’s what the mRNA does. Which is why many young, healthy, low risk people won’t take the vaccine this year.

 

[Pookie]

Vaccinated Every year?

Not if we have global eradication... and that should still be a goal... but I think we have to get ourselves ready for the idea of annual vaccinations.

The longer is stays around, the longer it can mutate.

And in one of your posts you suggest young, low risk folks won't take a vaccine this year. That's a great playground for it.

Add to it the fact that you can still likely pass it around even if vaccinated, and we have another playground.

And unfortunately, this virus has made a species jump. So it's likely to play around in the animal/bird population and find it's way back.

I suspect there will be multiple strains and like the flu will have to mobilize vaccine production and deployment annually.

This would be a great time for a little Keynesian economic boost to mobilize production and distribution hubs and put people back to work.

 

[Pookie]

Here's a good source of info on current spread of Covid in Ontario.

COVID-19 case data: All Ontario

The main source of spread is "close contact" which could be anywhere. They don't break it down from there which leads me to believe our government doesn't have data on the actual location of this close contact. But they do have data on where the outbreaks are happening:

View attachment 381171

They don't even have a category for outbreaks from household settings or social gatherings. Again, where are you getting your data from showing households are now the primary place Covid is spreading?

The answer is in the definitions they provide for each:

Close contact
Individuals who likely caught COVID-19covid 19 from an infected person that they were physically close to.
Community spread
A case is considered “community spread” when someone tests positive but we cannot trace the source because the person:

• did not travel
• did not knowingly have contact with another infected person
• is not associated with an outbreak

Outbreak setting
Individuals who caught COVID-19covid 19 in a specific shared space or setting such as a workplace, long-term care home or daycare.
Travel
Individuals who travelled outside of Ontario within 14 days before their symptoms began.
Other
Information on the source of infection is currently pending or unspecified.
​

Typically close contact cases are traceable to a person you have been around who isn't in one of those other categories.

Therefore, it's likely to be household in nature.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Governments babysit its citizens all the time. That is why we have laws, police service, and courts.

It's rare to see people out there without masks...Except the ones that are fighting the "good fight" against the "man". The ones that don't want to be babysat. The ones that feel it's their right to do what ever the hell they damn well please. You know...the exact same ones that should have been babysat more when they were children because they're acting like children now.

 

[Nineteen67]

Not if we have global eradication... and that should still be a goal... but I think we have to get ourselves ready for the idea of annual vaccinations.

The longer is stays around, the longer it can mutate.

And in one of your posts you suggest young, low risk folks won't take a vaccine this year. That's a great playground for it.

Add to it the fact that you can still likely pass it around even if vaccinated, and we have another playground.

And unfortunately, this virus has made a species jump. So it's likely to play around in the animal/bird population and find it's way back.

I suspect there will be multiple strains and like the flu will have to mobilize vaccine production and deployment annually.

This would be a great time for a little Keynesian economic boost to mobilize production and distribution hubs and put people back to work.

We had a vaccine roll out educational webinar in early December and they told us that you would not need an annual vaccine.
Even though it was available to me last week I didn’t get it because I think it’s better served in a vulnerable person, either someone over 65 or someone with multiple comorbidities.

 

[GQS]

I would agree with all you said if we were the only place that was doing lockdowns. They fact that the rest of the world is doing it says a lot.

Japan only had some brief regional lockdowns for like a month or so back in April/May and that was it and outside of some restrictions and mask wearing, they haven't had an explosion in deaths for the whole time when they're still at around 3,200 deaths for one of the oldest populations in the world.

Has anyone ever thought that maybe the numbers aren't that bad due to the measures put in place. Look at the numbers and deaths in the US. The fact that California hospital ICUs are full in many cases shows what would have happened here had we not had measures in place.

As I've been saying all along, the numbers wouldn't be as bad if we had simply protected the elderly and sick and let the rest of the population go on living with some precautions in place. Lockdowns didn't do anything for the long term when it was predicted that the summer months would be lower cases and deaths and then when the winter came that would change and that's what happened.

I will keep repeating this over and over. WHEN DO WE START BLAMING PEOPLE for the spread of Covid? If we control the spread and keep cases low businesses could be open.

You can't control the spread except under ideal conditions that's the point. How many at least moderately large nations that took harsh measures in the 1st wave to keep the spread low is still keeping the spread low in the 2nd wave? Very few if any. Weren't people pointing to Germany as being a success story during the 1st wave with how they were handling the virus and yet here they are getting hit hard in the 2nd wave. Many European countries that took covid seriously in the 1st wave are still getting hit hard in the 2nd wave anyways.

Contrast that to the continent of Africa who are collectively sitting at about 2.7 million cases and 64,000 deaths to date. Does anyone seriously believe that African nations with their vastly inferior medical systems and lack of advanced resources is handling the pandemic orders of magnitude better than western countries are? Yeah I doubt it. This simply comes down to Africa being lucky that their much, MUCH younger population is largely unaffected by this virus unlike much of the rest of the world where any nation that has an older, less healthy population is going to get hit hard.

This is also why many asian nations with their healthier and often younger populations are much less affected compared to the older and often much less healthier western populations. The bottom line is trying to lower the spread is largely an exercise in futility with only a few exceptions and its simply better to try and have as healthy a population as you can and protect those that are the most vulnerable.

 

[blueberrie]

Yup and the typical response is that flu went away this year because of social distancing, masks, etc. But that's a catch-22 for the true believers because the obvious question is why don't we shutter businesses, bankrupt our country and mandate masks, etc., forever to save as many of the 8,000 people as we can that die from flu and flu related pneumonia every year in Canada?

If you're willing to do it for one transmissible disease, why not another? And true, flu isn't as deadly or transmittable but then why don't we implement half of the measures, or a quarter or whatever fraction you fancy, that we have for Covid? Even 10% of what we've done for Covid would mean $30B+ in government spending every year to fight the flu. But of course, we've never done that. Why not? People dying of the flu don't matter? Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me.

Probably because we can live our normal lives and not have the flu bring our healthcare system to the ground?

Which past flu season had provincial and federal governments planning to build a field hospital in Alberta? Have we ever had a flu season force hospitals to ration O2 and stretch ventilator/ICU capacity to the limit? Double bunk kids in the paediatric wing?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5843814

We’re doing more for covid because covid is deadlier, spreads easier and puts more people in the hospital.

Your core point is right though, we probably should be doing a lot more for flu, wearing a mask when we are feeling sick, not going to work when sick, washing hands much more frequently.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

And our national debt is now forecast to top $1.4T. You think this financial aid is sustainable?

It is all relative to every other countries GDP and we are still at top of G7 ... I know I am losing $$$ everyday on US$ ... but I am scared to bet da other way due to historical trends in an election year ... but da world can't keep on funding this thing that we can agree on

 

[Nineteen67]

Probably because we can live our normal lives and not have the flu bring our healthcare system to the ground?

Which past flu season had provincial and federal governments planning to build a field hospital in Alberta? Have we ever had a flu season force hospitals to ration O2 and stretch ventilator/ICU capacity to the limit? Double bunk kids in the paediatric wing?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5843814

We’re doing more for covid because covid is deadlier, spreads easier and puts more people in the hospital.

Your core point is right though, we probably should be doing a lot more for flu, wearing a mask when we are feeling sick, not going to work when sick, washing hands much more frequently.

In the US the 2017/18 flu season had about 810,000 hospitalizations, thats with a vaccine. Although kids are hospitalized with flu and not Covid.

 

[GQS]

Once again, that's because those diseases aren't contagious. If heart attacks were contagious I'm sure we'd have more measures to control them.

Yes this virus is so contagious that again, if you placed EVERY SINGLE confirmed infection in Canada into only Ontario, 96% of all Ontarians would still be covid free right now. And then on top of that even if you do catch the virus, your chances of dying from it are minimal and on top of that for the vast majority of people who are infected they're largely only moderately to not affected at all by the virus. That's TOTALLY what we should be going insane over.

It doesn't matter if the majority of people don't have adverse effects. The danger is that those who have minimal reactions then spread it to vulnerable populations who could have adverse reactions. Can't believe people still don't understand this a year into the pandemic. That or they just don't care about those populations. The latter is most likely.

Again there are almost 3 MILLION seniors living in Ontario and even in that most vulnerable group of people who are hit hardest by this virus, we've only seen about 4,200 seniors die to the virus to date. Let me repeat 4,200 deaths out of almost 3 MILLION seniors.

The success in Australia and NZ in implementing Lockdowns and controlling covid when it reappears says otherwise to your claim about the success of lockdowns.

I think it helps ALOT when you have a physical water seperation from the rest of the world and can control much better who can and cannot come into your country and also the entire African continent counters your argument when 1.2 BILLION people there have only about 64,000 covid deaths to date with vastly fewer and inferior medical systems to treat them and probably much worse following of the rules for reducing covid spread.

Nigeria has a population of 195 million and yet they're still sitting at about 1,300 deaths. Do you really, serious want me to believe that Nigeria is handling the pandemic vastly better than Canada is even with their hugely inferior medical resources at their disposal? Yeah ok.

And you totally misunderstand how life expectancy works. Just because someone is 70+ doesn't mean they're at the end of their life, many are in good health. And yeah mask off on you saying you think these people are disposable.

The thing is the seniors you're talking about are the ones in the general population, but the seniors I'm talking about are the ones in long term care homes who are nearing the end of their lives. When we're talking about people who aren't even healthy enough to clean themselves, eat on their own or go out the door and do normal things and require constant around the clock care to keep them alive, those people most definitely don't have long to live and in many cases have far surpassed their normal life expectancy except thanks to modern medicine and personal care that are keeping them alive for a while longer.

People in this category can and do die to any number of causes every single year by the thousands. It just so happens that in this year many of them are dying to covid instead of the flu, heart attack, stroke etc. As much as we want to save everyone, I don't think stopping society for these people is worth the trade off even if it actually worked which obviously it hasn't. Just let society move on and give these seniors the best care possible and protect them as much as you can and leave it at that.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Probably because we can live our normal lives and not have the flu bring our healthcare system to the ground?

Which past flu season had provincial and federal governments planning to build a field hospital in Alberta? Have we ever had a flu season force hospitals to ration O2 and stretch ventilator/ICU capacity to the limit? Double bunk kids in the paediatric wing?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5843814

We’re doing more for covid because covid is deadlier, spreads easier and puts more people in the hospital.

Your core point is right though, we probably should be doing a lot more for flu, wearing a mask when we are feeling sick, not going to work when sick, washing hands much more frequently.

When I was a kid we had more hospital beds to deal with every kinda of sickness like 7 beds for every sick person ... today because we have not funding hospitals/docs/nurses over past 50 years so we have 2.3 beds for every sick person ... so WE ARE EASILY put in a bad position with any major problem like we have today with COVID ... we as a society/gov over da years choose to invest MORE in other issues and have reduced our prorata spending to put ourselves in this bad position ... so everyone needs to look in mirror here ... because of COVID Trudeau sees these stats now and everyone asks WHY? ... well what took 50 years to create won't get fixed in 1 year ... it will take another 50 years to FIX it

 

[Confucius]

It's rare to see people out there without masks...Except the ones that are fighting the "good fight" against the "man". The ones that don't want to be babysat. The ones that feel it's their right to do what ever the hell they damn well please. You know...the exact same ones that should have been babysat more when they were children because they're acting like children now.

Today and everyday in large cities there will be dozens of serious assaults maybe even the odd attempted murder.

Yet some still wonder why some others won't follow rules.

Good plan.(Sarcasm)

 

[Pink Mist]

I think it helps ALOT when you have a physical water seperation from the rest of the world and can control much better who can and cannot come into your country and also the entire African continent counters your argument when 1.2 BILLION people there have only about 64,000 covid deaths to date with vastly fewer and inferior medical systems to treat them and probably much worse following of the rules for reducing covid spread.

Nigeria has a population of 195 million and yet they're still sitting at about 1,300 deaths. Do you really, serious want me to believe that Nigeria is handling the pandemic vastly better than Canada is even with their hugely inferior medical resources at their disposal? Yeah ok.

Yes, why would Africa, a continent which has decades of ongoing experience combating and controlling infectious diseases, a younger population, and less comorbidities be ill equipped to manage a pandemic?

Also, very possible there's undertesting in Africa

 

[Pookie]

We had a vaccine roll out educational webinar in early December and they told us that you would not need an annual vaccine.
Even though it was available to me last week I didn’t get it because I think it’s better served in a vulnerable person, either someone over 65 or someone with multiple comorbidities.

same on our side.

The jury was out on the question of how long it would last and would it be effective against newer strains.

 

[Pookie]

Yes this virus is so contagious that again, if you placed EVERY SINGLE confirmed infection in Canada into only Ontario, 96% of all Ontarians would still be covid free right now. And then on top of that even if you do catch the virus, your chances of dying from it are minimal and on top of that for the vast majority of people who are infected they're largely only moderately to not affected at all by the virus. That's TOTALLY what we should be going insane over.



Again there are almost 3 MILLION seniors living in Ontario and even in that most vulnerable group of people who are hit hardest by this virus, we've only seen about 4,200 seniors die to the virus to date. Let me repeat 4,200 deaths out of almost 3 MILLION seniors.



I think it helps ALOT when you have a physical water seperation from the rest of the world and can control much better who can and cannot come into your country and also the entire African continent counters your argument when 1.2 BILLION people there have only about 64,000 covid deaths to date with vastly fewer and inferior medical systems to treat them and probably much worse following of the rules for reducing covid spread.

Nigeria has a population of 195 million and yet they're still sitting at about 1,300 deaths. Do you really, serious want me to believe that Nigeria is handling the pandemic vastly better than Canada is even with their hugely inferior medical resources at their disposal? Yeah ok.



The thing is the seniors you're talking about are the ones in the general population, but the seniors I'm talking about are the ones in long term care homes who are nearing the end of their lives. When we're talking about people who aren't even healthy enough to clean themselves, eat on their own or go out the door and do normal things and require constant around the clock care to keep them alive, those people most definitely don't have long to live and in many cases have far surpassed their normal life expectancy except thanks to modern medicine and personal care that are keeping them alive for a while longer.

People in this category can and do die to any number of causes every single year by the thousands. It just so happens that in this year many of them are dying to covid instead of the flu, heart attack, stroke etc. As much as we want to save everyone, I don't think stopping society for these people is worth the trade off even if it actually worked which obviously it hasn't. Just let society move on and give these seniors the best care possible and protect them as much as you can and leave it at that.

what an odd bit of mental gymnastics.

if you put all infected cases in Ontario, it’s only 4% of the population right now.

ok.

know why?

because of mitigation efforts.

let’s say it together.... mitigation efforts.

if we had the USA’s divided response our death rate would be more than double what it is now based on per capita averages.

fortunately, anti-maskers and hoax conspiracy nut jobs are fewer in number.

as for your last point, do what we can to protect them.... we are. That’s what you are upset about

 

[Bluelines]

The Flu:

1. There is a vaccine for the flu

2. There are therapeutics for the flu, including anti-viral medication

3. The flu is most contagious 3 days after symptoms appear.

4. There is no asymptomatic transmission of the flu

——-
Covid:

1. We have had no vaccine for Covid and it won’t be until the fall until enough of the population has taken it

2. There have been very few effective treatments to date

3. Covid is most contagious during the incubation period when no symptoms are present

4. Some people never get symptoms and become asymptomatic spreaders

That’s why.

Facts are so 1985... Pfffftttt .. Meh!