Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[Nineteen67]

This is pretty sad. I’ve even spoken to a number of my friends who are planning to gather with at least one other person outside their household for New Years. Really doesn’t make sense. I get Christmas with family, but why New Years during another lockdown with cases at an all time high? Especially if you live with people that are at-risk?

Obviously the data does not support shutting down these small businesses. But this is the kind of behaviour that’s driving these lockdowns, and it’s starting to piss me off. Many people just don’t care about any of this and can’t even wait a few weeks, especially if the restrictions get in the way of them getting laid or gathering with friends.

I know. you can have a celebration, but you have to be certain nobody is contagious and no one attending is in the vulnerable groups and no one will visit vulnerable groups afterwards.
That doesn’t leave very many people.

 

[Pookie]

I know. you can have a celebration, but you have to be certain nobody is contagious and no one attending is in the vulnerable groups and no one will visit vulnerable groups afterwards.
That doesn’t leave very many people.

I’m getting drunk while my wife watches a Coldplay concert. Drinking helps me enjoy Coldplay.

And we aren’t infecting anyone or getting infected.

such is life in 2020

 

[4thline]

I’m getting drunk while my wife watches a Coldplay concert. Drinking helps me enjoy Coldplay.

And we aren’t infecting anyone or getting infected.

such is life in 2020

My pregnant wife has gone to bed, so I've got US-SWE and a Glenlivet 15.

Might have a campfire tomorrow if the weather holds.

 

[Gabriel426]

I guess we all need to stay negative for 2021!!!!

 

[Pookie]

My pregnant wife has gone to bed, so I've got US-SWE and a Glenlivet 15.

Might have a campfire tomorrow if the weather holds.

all the best to you.... sincerely. Don’t always agree and you piss me off sometimes but clearly, leaf fan = brother.

cheers and stay safe.

Ps... congratulations

 

[Metroid]

I’m getting drunk while my wife watches a Coldplay concert. Drinking helps me enjoy Coldplay.

And we aren’t infecting anyone or getting infected.

such is life in 2020

I don't know if being drunk would help with me enjoying coldplay, but I'm stuck watching city tv and finding out shitty pop acts like Megan thee stallion is a multi platinum selling "artist".....
Figured Spotify and such would kill record sales

 

[4thline]

all the best to you.... sincerely. Don’t always agree and you piss me off sometimes but clearly, leaf fan = brother.

cheers and stay safe.

Ps... congratulations

Cheers mate- tried to reach out when you dropped off the boards but my PM was turned away at the gates . Glad to see you're ok.

It seems ridiculous to even think about, but between the kid coming and covid I just can't work up the willingness to cross swords on here about hockey anymore. Some people I see eye to eye with on hockey turned out bat shit crazy, people I'd fight to the death with on inane hockey bullshit (there are 3 of you that come to mind immediately) have hearts and heads in the right place, and with some of the nonsense flying around a difference of hockey opinions seems very small- all about perspective. When I joined this site I gave myself a dual deadline for self indulgence (soonest of a certain age or firstborn child) and one of them is coming up. In the time that's left I figure just to focus on the things I like rather than caring about what others don't.

Ps.. thanks man

 

[GQS]

Yes, why would Africa, a continent which has decades of ongoing experience combating and controlling infectious diseases, a younger population, and less comorbidities be ill equipped to manage a pandemic?

Also, very possible there's undertesting in Africa

Even if they're severely undertesting, they can't hide bodies if there were a vast number of deaths higher than reported. The point is their young and mostly healthier population is what's getting them through the pandemic largely unaffected even without taking many other measures to prevent the spread. Give western countries the same age demographics as many African nations have and we'd be cruising through largely untouched as well.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Happy New Year guys and gals. Good Riddance 2020.

Rang in the new year getting drunk and playing Rock Band on playstation with the wife and kids, lol.

 

[Pookie]

Even if they're severely undertesting, they can't hide bodies if there were a vast number of deaths higher than reported. The point is their young and mostly healthier population is what's getting them through the pandemic largely unaffected even without taking many other measures to prevent the spread. Give western countries the same age demographics as many African nations have and we'd be cruising through largely untouched as well.

This is a good summary of the Africa experience thus far

Why Africa's COVID-19 Outbreak Hasn't Been as Bad as Everyone Feared

I do think it would be erroneous to suggest that they haven’t employed a strict lockdown early on. They did. With stay at home orders, economic shut down, curfews and travel restrictions.

 

[GQS]

because of mitigation efforts.

let’s say it together.... mitigation efforts.

Mitigation efforts are most effective when you have control over almost everything and/or you can be isolated from the rest of the world. Otherwise like most western countries you're simply playing wack-a-mole in trying to stop every new spread of the virus.

Look at a country like Japan where outside of having most of their population wear masks in cities when in public, they've largely lived normal lives throughout almost the entire pandemic. They had a few temporary shutdowns for about a month in some regions during the 1st wave and that's about it and everything has been close to back to normal since.

How is it possible that the Japanese can live like that with next to no social distancing or other extreme precautions and not experience tens of thousands of deaths despite having one of the largest senior populations in the world?

as for your last point, do what we can to protect them.... we are. That’s what you are upset about

Except we're NOT protecting patients in the long term care homes which is why they're hit the hardest yet again in the 2nd wave. Shutting down much of society to protect them didn't work in the 1st wave and it isn't working in the 2nd wave. Creating a protective bubble around those LTCs would've done much more and saved many more lives than wasting time and energy on stopping the spread in the general population.

Creating covid patient only hospitals throughout the province so that the rest of the hundreds of hospitals in Ontario can get back to treating non-covid patients would make much more sense than having every hospital treat covid patients and increasing the chance of spread and outbreaks in hospitals.

The point is there are many different things the government and our supposed experts could've implemented that would've been far more effective and less damaging than simply calling for shutdowns even though the positivity rate has been mostly lower than the 1st wave.

 

[GQS]

Do you believe the numbers being reported by most African countries? How does their inferior health care systems keep up such accurate testing?

Even if the numbers aren't completely 100% accurate, they're probably not that far off. In this day and age where all you need is a phone and an internet connection, you can't hide the truth for long if indeed there were tens of thousands more deaths that governments might be trying to hide. That kind of info would quickly get out and the world would know about it in no time.

 

[GQS]

This is a good summary of the Africa experience thus far

Why Africa's COVID-19 Outbreak Hasn't Been as Bad as Everyone Feared

I do think it would be erroneous to suggest that they haven’t employed a strict lockdown early on. They did. With stay at home orders, economic shut down, curfews and travel restrictions.

I didn't say some African nations didn't take measures to prevent the spread early on. I'm saying that isn't a major factor in why covid hasn't hit many African nations hard. From your article:

If South African epidemiologist Siegfried could point to one telling factor in the continent’s low COVID-19 mortality rate, it would be that Africa’s median age is 19 years old. “We don’t have many people over the age of 50,” she says, noting that the virus is far more dangerous in older populations. “It seem logical that a relatively youthful population would result in a lower toll.”

I think that's a better explanation than saying proactive measures and shutdowns saved African nations from the higher death rates in western countries which surprise, surprise is vastly occuring in the age demographics that many African nations possess in very low numbers. Give African countries the same age demographics that the US has for example and then see if their death rate would remain so low.

 

[Pink Mist]

I didn't say some African nations didn't take measures to prevent the spread early on. I'm saying that isn't a major factor in why covid hasn't hit many African nations hard. From your article:



I think that's a better explanation than saying proactive measures and shutdowns saved African nations from the higher death rates in western countries which surprise, surprise is vastly occuring in the age demographics that many African nations possess in very low numbers. Give African countries the same age demographics that the US has for example and then see if their death rate would remain so low.

So what's your point? North America does not have the same demographics and our death rate is much higher since it is a deadly virus for much of our demographics.

 

[Confucius]

Except we're NOT protecting patients in the long term care homes which is why they're hit the hardest yet again in the 2nd wave. Shutting down much of society to protect them didn't work in the 1st wave and it isn't working in the 2nd wave.
.

We have done better in Long Term Care Homes.
COVID-19 cases: Long-term care homes

What is disturbing is the number of staff catching the virus (the black line represents staff infections). It is now almost one for one. I thought wearing a mask indoors while at home helps. Apparently it doesn't help the staff in LTC homes, or they arent wearing masks in there.

 

[Pookie]

Mitigation efforts are most effective when you have control over almost everything and/or you can be isolated from the rest of the world. Otherwise like most western countries you're simply playing wack-a-mole in trying to stop every new spread of the virus.

Look at a country like Japan where outside of having most of their population wear masks in cities when in public, they've largely lived normal lives throughout almost the entire pandemic. They had a few temporary shutdowns for about a month in some regions during the 1st wave and that's about it and everything has been close to back to normal since.

Uh... this Japan?

Except we're NOT protecting patients in the long term care homes which is why they're hit the hardest yet again in the 2nd wave. Shutting down much of society to protect them didn't work in the 1st wave and it isn't working in the 2nd wave. Creating a protective bubble around those LTCs would've done much more and saved many more lives than wasting time and energy on stopping the spread in the general population.

This is where the argument goes off the rails. There has been death in Canada, absolutely and there is some reckoning to understand where the system failed people.

However, claiming that enforcing retail curbside pick up only didn't work is absolutely disingenuous.

Sweden's death rate per capita is double ours. The USA's death rate per capita is triple ours.

In fact, there is an argument to be made that we could have done more to create a protective bubble around LTCs. Which by the way, thousands still died outside of LTC. Especially when you consider we did not have accurate immediate testing and that people are most contagious 3-4 days before symptoms appear... if they ever do.

It's also disingenuous to say we shut down much of society.

ALL Retail is open to curbside pick up and delivery. ALL Restaurants are open to take out and delivery. Some segments are thriving. As I highlighted earlier: Home Renos, Contractors, Building Supply Companies, , Golf Courses, Couriers, Medical Equipment Manufactuers, Distributors, Pharmacies, Real Estate, Communications companies, Gaming, etc. These segments are posting record profits.

Creating covid patient only hospitals throughout the province so that the rest of the hundreds of hospitals in Ontario can get back to treating non-covid patients would make much more sense than having every hospital treat covid patients and increasing the chance of spread and outbreaks in hospitals.

The point is there are many different things the government and our supposed experts could've implemented that would've been far more effective and less damaging than simply calling for shutdowns even though the positivity rate has been mostly lower than the 1st wave.

I'll give you the hospital point. Challenge of course is that the infrastructure needed to open an ICU with it's piped in gas lines, monitoring equipment, etc cannot just be constructed overnight.

That would help keep surgeries running. But it would not have done anything to change the rate of spread, which could have been better enforced.

 

[Pookie]

View attachment 381395

We have done better in Long Term Care Homes.
COVID-19 cases: Long-term care homes

What is disturbing is the number of staff catching the virus (the black line represents staff infections). It is now almost one for one. I thought wearing a mask indoors while at home helps. Apparently it doesn't help the staff in LTC homes, or they arent wearing masks in there.

I'd see a few possible reasons to explain this.

Surprisingly, the law does not require private LTC corporations to provide their workers with the more effective N95 mask. So right out of the gate they are dealing with the worst infections with inferior equipment. This is a major flaw in how our system is set up

Secondly, masks protect others from you. Not the other way around. If I have COVID and don't wear a mask but you do wear one, you have an 80% chance to get infected.

So while wearing a cloth mask, a worker in LTC may face a situation in which the patient is not wearing a mask. Such as changing an oxygen mask or through basic hygiene needs.

Lastly, when they gather for breaks or in the lunch room... they remove masks to eat and drink. It's a confined space. All it takes is one and in a building that is in an outbreak or has the virus present, that's a recipe for disaster.

 

[GQS]

So what's your point? North America does not have the same demographics and our death rate is much higher since it is a deadly virus for much of our demographics.

Which is EXACTLY WHY instead of wasting so much time, energy and resources trying to control and chase the spread in the general population, our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs with a NHL/NBA kind of bubble where there's constant testing of patients and also everyone from the outside before they're allowed entry.

If we could've mostly protected patients in LTCs effectively from the beginning, we could've saved thousands of senior lives and probably cut Canada's death total by more than half when even now some 75% or so of all deaths in Canada were in LTCs. And also in taking that targeted approach, the rest of society and so many businesses and the economy wouldn't have had to take so much needless damage.

Also on a side note if anyone is interested in how Japan is dealing with the pandemic, you can checkout this guy's VOD where he did a 24 hour new years eve/day livestream in the heart of Tokyo. Some highlights:

Huge new years crowds:





Hanging out at a packed club:



Crowds of people doing some morning/afternoon shopping:

Twitch

Lots of people waiting in line for some kind of new years day deals:

Twitch

Twitch


And there's many more super spreader events in the VOD that would make Doug Ford, John Tory and all our medical experts heads simultaneously explode if they watched it. Mask wearing is high, but there's zero social distancing and just plenty of people enjoying life.

 

[Pink Mist]

Which is EXACTLY WHY instead of wasting so much time, energy and resources trying to control and chase the spread in the general population, our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs with a NHL/NBA kind of bubble where there's constant testing of patients and also everyone from the outside before they're allowed entry.

If we could've mostly protected patients in LTCs effectively from the beginning, we could've saved thousands of senior lives and probably cut Canada's death total by more than half when even now some 75% or so of all deaths in Canada were in LTCs. And also in taking that targeted approach, the rest of society and so many businesses and the economy wouldn't have had to take so much needless damage.

Sure, we're in agreement that more needs to be done to protect LTC facilities, however most of the elderly and vulnerable people do not live in LTC facilities so you still need to have measures to protect vulnerable populations outside of these facilities.

 

[Confucius]

I'd see a few possible reasons to explain this.

Surprisingly, the law does not require private LTC corporations to provide their workers with the more effective N95 mask. So right out of the gate they are dealing with the worst infections with inferior equipment. This is a major flaw in how our system is set up

Secondly, masks protect others from you. Not the other way around. If I have COVID and don't wear a mask but you do wear one, you have an 80% chance to get infected.

So while wearing a cloth mask, a worker in LTC may face a situation in which the patient is not wearing a mask. Such as changing an oxygen mask or through basic hygiene needs.

Lastly, when they gather for breaks or in the lunch room... they remove masks to eat and drink. It's a confined space. All it takes is one and in a building that is in an outbreak or has the virus present, that's a recipe for disaster.

The point still remains, the staff wear some type of masks and I'm told even face shield. I'm pretty sure the residents don't. And I would think the staff are generally healthier and younger. Also I would think there are fewer staff than residents. Yet the infection numbers appears to be the same.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'd see a few possible reasons to explain this.

Surprisingly, the law does not require private LTC corporations to provide their workers with the more effective N95 mask. So right out of the gate they are dealing with the worst infections with inferior equipment. This is a major flaw in how our system is set up

Secondly, masks protect others from you. Not the other way around. If I have COVID and don't wear a mask but you do wear one, you have an 80% chance to get infected.

So while wearing a cloth mask, a worker in LTC may face a situation in which the patient is not wearing a mask. Such as changing an oxygen mask or through basic hygiene needs.

Lastly, when they gather for breaks or in the lunch room... they remove masks to eat and drink. It's a confined space. All it takes is one and in a building that is in an outbreak or has the virus present, that's a recipe for disaster.

Nope.

 

[Pookie]

Which is EXACTLY WHY instead of wasting so much time, energy and resources trying to control and chase the spread in the general population, our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs with a NHL/NBA kind of bubble where there's constant testing of patients and also everyone from the outside before they're allowed entry.

If we could've mostly protected patients in LTCs effectively from the beginning, we could've saved thousands of senior lives and probably cut Canada's death total by more than half when even now some 75% or so of all deaths in Canada were in LTCs. And also in taking that targeted approach, the rest of society and so many businesses and the economy wouldn't have had to take so much needless damage.

The goal of your stance is admirable. Saving lives is the name of the game.

However, you are overlooking a significant challenge with your retro-active proposal.

We didn't have Rapid Covid testing.

In fact, it wasn't until Nov 24th that the government was able to deploy rapid testing within some healthcare settings.

It takes time to develop the test. Time to determine its accuracy. Get Health Canada approval. Scale up production.

A best you could test a worker, send them home and have results a few days later. Meanwhile they would be at home, where over 50% of the spread happens in close contact. They would get getting groceries, gas, etc.

Which of course would make the test results, once received days later... essentially invalid.

If you wanted to create a bubble where the workers didn't have to quarantine at home and instead in some guarded facility like the NBA... know that in Ontario alone that are over 100,000 LTC workers.

It's a little easier to put a basketball team up in a hotel than it is to find space to house 100,000 people across the province. and monitor them and everything that comes in to that setting.

Oh... and many are single parents with kids... so, add a child care dilemma on top.

 

[stealth1]

9 months into this a yet people continue to try to downplay the effectiveness of masks. Masks aren't 100% effective and really only protect you from giving the virus to someone else. Since in LTC homes most residents don't wear masks if any of them have Covid it can still spread to the staff. Then you add in that on lunch breaks people take their masks off to eat. Its not surprising to see the spread and another reason why it's not that simple to just put a bubble around the LTC homes and let the rest of us go on with life.

 

[Pookie]

The point still remains, the staff wear some type of masks and I'm told even face shield. I'm pretty sure the residents don't. Yet the infection rate appears to be the same.

Again... masks protect others from you.

If the staff wear masks, they are protecting residents. If residents do not, the masks that the workers wear are about 20% effective.

It's completely logical to see similar infection rates in scenarios like that.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Which is EXACTLY WHY instead of wasting so much time, energy and resources trying to control and chase the spread in the general population, our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs with a NHL/NBA kind of bubble where there's constant testing of patients and also everyone from the outside before they're allowed entry.

If we could've mostly protected patients in LTCs effectively from the beginning, we could've saved thousands of senior lives and probably cut Canada's death total by more than half when even now some 75% or so of all deaths in Canada were in LTCs. And also in taking that targeted approach, the rest of society and so many businesses and the economy wouldn't have had to take so much needless damage.

Also on a side note if anyone is interested in how Japan is dealing with the pandemic, you can checkout this guy's VOD where he did a 24 hour new years eve/day livestream in the heart of Tokyo. Some highlights:

Huge new years crowds:





Hanging out at a packed club:



Crowds of people doing some morning/afternoon shopping:

Twitch

Lots of people waiting in line for some kind of new years day deals:

Twitch

Twitch


And there's many more super spreader events in the VOD that would make Doug Ford, John Tory and all our medical experts heads simultaneously explode if they watched it. Mask wearing is high, but there's zero social distancing and just plenty of people enjoying life.

"...our government could've instead invested those resources into protecting all LTCs..."

Correction: our government could have invested a *tiny fraction* of those resources into protecting LTCs and gotten a much better result. It's absolutely shameful they haven't figured this out yet.