Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[LeafChief]

Is Murray 100% healthy?

Didn't play yesterday and is not listed as the starter for either of the next 2 exhibition games...

He's playing the first 40 mins on Wednesday vs Montreal.

 

[Zybalto]

Murray is the 23rd highest paid starting goalie.

So if they get even middle of the pack goaltending, then

A) he outperformed his salary, and
B) he outperformed the near league worst goaltending the Leafs got after Christmas, no matter how little they paid. They got what they paid for.

Prove me wrong on any of this. Go ahead. Please.

I think injuries played a role with Campbell but you may be actually underselling things here.

Looking at goalies after Jan.14th (the 2nd half of the season+), 52 played 800+ minutes, here are the top 5 that statistically had the best D in front of them (along with their save%):

Goalies with the lowest xGA/60:
1. Talbot : .914
2. Swayman: .911
3. Ullmark: .915
4. Campbell: .886
5. Markstrom: .920

The combination of awful goalkeeping behind elite D numbers makes things even worse IMO.

Campbell's ranking out of 52 across the board:

GSAA/60: -.57 (51 out of 52)
Save%: .886 (Tied for dead last)

Looking at his playoff numbers after that:

GSAA/60: -.49
Save%: .897

Not sure why some are surprised at him being cut loose and I still think it's weird to see a "gambling" narrative with Samsonov (x1 year) and Murray(x2 years + picks) when signing a north of 30 Campbell to 5+ year deal after failing in his only full season as a starter is a comparable.

What happens if all three fail to live up to expectations?

Considering health is the most likely cause of a Murray failure, hhe Leafs have the flexibility and the Oilers are screwed due to the term.

 

[Stephen]

If the Saturday night version of Samsonov is the version we get on a regular basis, that's going to be a good addition for the Leafs.

Very focused in all of his movements. Was dialed in even though he was lightly tested, had that upright stance he was reportedly working on (looked somewhat similar to Campbell actually) and great athleticism, lateral movement.

 

[Stephen]

I think injuries played a role with Campbell but you may be actually underselling things here.

Looking at goalies after Jan.14th (the 2nd half of the season+), 52 played 800+ minutes, here are the top 5 that statistically had the best D in front of them (along with their save%):

Goalies with the lowest xGA/60:
1. Talbot : .914
2. Swayman: .911
3. Ullmark: .915
4. Campbell: .886
5. Markstrom: .920

The combination of awful goalkeeping behind elite D numbers makes things even worse IMO.

Campbell's ranking out of 52 across the board:

GSAA/60: -.57 (51 out of 52)
Save%: .886 (Tied for dead last)

Looking at his playoff numbers after that:

GSAA/60: -.49
Save%: .897

Not sure why some are surprised at him being cut loose and I still think it's weird to see a "gambling" narrative with Samsonov (x1 year) and Murray(x2 years + picks) when signing a north of 30 Campbell to 5+ year deal after failing in his only full season as a starter is a comparable.

What happens if all three fail to live up to expectations?

Considering health is the most likely cause of a Murray failure, hhe Leafs have the flexibility and the Oilers are screwed due to the term.

I think I would frame the conflict as this:

1) the Leafs were a 115 point team, with great defensive metrics and up and down, high highs, low lows goaltending.

2) stabilize or massively upgrade that goaltending, and our chance of winning in the playoffs goes up significantly. Aka turn a perceived weakness overall into a massive strength.

3) keeping Campbell gives you more of the same. But does rolling the dice on Samsonov and Murray give you the same level of goaltending or do you have a serious answer between the two?

 

[zeke]

I think I would frame the conflict as this:

1) the Leafs were a 115 point team, with great defensive metrics and up and down, high highs, low lows goaltending.

2) stabilize or massively upgrade that goaltending, and our chance of winning in the playoffs goes up significantly. Aka turn a perceived weakness overall into a massive strength.

3) keeping Campbell gives you more of the same. But does rolling the dice on Samsonov and Murray give you the same level of goaltending or do you have a serious answer between the two?

For me I see the likeliest outcome is similar below average goaltending as last year.

But there's a little more upside in the new guys, both by age and by past playoffs performance.

 

[Zybalto]

I think I would frame the conflict as this:

1) the Leafs were a 115 point team, with great defensive metrics and up and down, high highs, low lows goaltending.

2) stabilize or massively upgrade that goaltending, and our chance of winning in the playoffs goes up significantly. Aka turn a perceived weakness overall into a massive strength.

3) keeping Campbell gives you more of the same. But does rolling the dice on Samsonov and Murray give you the same level of goaltending or do you have a serious answer between the two?

Considering Campbell's level of goaltending the 2nd half behind those great defensive numbers was brutal (to go along with other goalies' awful showings, no matter what the reasons), everyone should have been on board with a change....and considering the fact both new goalies are going to a more favorable system in front, I'd like to see how things play out before labeling anything a failure as some are so eager to do.

Maybe its just the language, I mean, Campbell has never had a successful full season as an NHL starter right?

How are taking on two new (much in Samosonovs case) younger guys who have started more games than him and had more time as starters with one having backstopped a team to two cups and the other coming off a better playoffs on a worse team considered "rolling the dice" comparatively?

Isnt Campbell for 5 years a bigger roll of the dice? How about any of the other goalies available? It's why you don't see a ton of what they should have done in here to go with the empty criticisms.

I really do think it would have been as big a risk no matter who they chose.....and they chose to go short-term with a proven winner and high potential which might be the smart play here......who knows though...time will tell.

My personal feeling going into the season is that we will improve in net but be just barely cracking the top 10 and that Murray will play well but miss time during the season while Samsonov will be a .910+ keeper for us.

Will that be enough?

 

[zeke]

If we had signed Campbell to that contract you can be sure that the same posters would be calling him a brief fluke that got quickly figured out after a hot start to the first fulltime starter season of his career, and posting stats about how he was an .890 goalie over his last 30+gms (which is a full 1/4 of his career starts).

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

If we had signed Campbell to that contract you can be sure that the same posters would be calling him a brief fluke that got quickly figured out, and posting stats about how he was an .890 goalie over his last 30+gms (which is a full 1/4 of his career starts).

Agreed. It seems that risk-reward for going with the new guys is well worth it. We keep hearing that Dubas keeps beating his head against the wall by doing the same thing (core 4) but when he does change gears on goaltending....we get a freak out. Honestly, we probably took more of a chance in letting Fred go than we did with Jack. He is a bad streak away from a meltdown with the pressure of his $5M deal. He will feel the weight of everything exponentially as things get bad (everybody goes through rough patches in a season) and I don't think he is built to handle it...I could be wrong...but I still think betting on Matt and Samsonov is a better play.

 

[LeafSteel]

Let’s go Sammy!

 

[Namikaze Minato]

 

[saltming]

 

[makbeer]

I don't believe it is fair to roll the dice in net with this roster.

That said, you now have 2 rolls of the dice for basically the same price of 1 roll of the dice if they kept Campbell.

I'm not sold on either Samsonov or Murray, but both have proven more as starters than Campbell ever did.

The one thing I like about Samsonov is I think he has a very high ceiling. He is an "all the tools" goalie in terms of size, athleticism and pedigree.

Per his 2015 scouting repot - "Combines essential elements of size and athletic ability to be imposing in the net and make scoring difficult. He is very aware and reads the play well and is quick to close down the net. An ultra competitor who never gives up on a play. With normal technical refinement, he can become a star."

For Murray I do feel he's slow on his feet, and I think that got worse with his injuries, but behind the Leafs mostly solid defense that might be sheltered a bit. He's good if he has time to set up and he's not forced into a bunch of athletic plays.

All we can do now is wait and see, and pray.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I do believe one of the two will win us over, hopefully both, but from a "story" stand point, Dubas did one heck of a job riling people up.

We hands down had some of the worst goaltending in the league last season. How do we follow up? We're a team that broke ties with players like Kadri and Kapanen who had discipline issues here, but one of our gambles is a head case from Washington (suspended for being a clown off the ice) and the other gamble was the least tradeable goalie on the market, after already shedding one of the other least tradeable goalies on the market, rank unknown.

I mean, whether you are high on the tandem or not, the backstory for the tandem is a total fail lol.

Right now it's just a story and nothing more, their performance is what matters, but the story will come back to haunt Dubas' extension if they are a train wreck.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

When I hear a tender is a headcase that is to be expected .. I did not know one tender in over 20 years of playing competitive hockey who was not a headcase .. they are a different breed .. nice guys finish last .. when I think crazy I think of a couple of my ex teammates who were tenders .. off da wall types, who like enforcers, you just never know, even if teammates, what da h*ll they are gonna say or do

 

[DraftSchmaft]

When I hear a tender is a headcase that is to be expected .. I did not know one tender in over 20 years of playing competitive hockey who was not a headcase .. they are a different breed .. nice guys finish last .. when I think crazy I think of a couple of my ex teammates who were tenders .. off da wall types, who like enforcers, you just never know, even if teammates, what da h*ll they are gonna say or do

Yeah but just saying, if the tandem ends up a failure, the "social science" behind this new tandem after moving on from a tandem that was already a fail will exacerbate how the failure is viewed.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Yeah but just saying, if the tandem ends up a failure, the "social science" behind this new tandem after moving on from a tandem that was already a fail will exacerbate how the failure is viewed.

We had 2 "nice guys" in Freddy and Soup .. i think Dubie has learned "nice guy" tenders don't win .. you need a prick like Murray .. completely isolated guy who is totally self centered .. good to hear Sammy is off da wall too .. to me that is NORMAL for a good tender

 

[DraftSchmaft]

We had 2 "nice guys" in Freddy and Soup .. i think Dubie has learned "nice guy" tenders don't win .. you need a prick like Murray .. completely isolated guy who is totally self centered .. good to hear Sammy is off da wall too .. to me that is NORMAL for a good tender

At least with Murray he took his training seriously. Seems like Samsonov is his own worst enemy so far when it comes to meeting his potential. I don't mind a head case if it's a work hard party hard head case.

*Disclaimer: I don't know the extent of how much of a head case he is/was that got him in trouble with the caps, so don't look too far into what I'm saying. Just overall, the whole situations around ilya and murray will sink dubas even further if they don't work out. Easily spins back into a "Well what did you expect? Can't believe you thought these two were the answer" scenario.

 

[LeafEgo]

When I hear a tender is a headcase that is to be expected .. I did not know one tender in over 20 years of playing competitive hockey who was not a headcase .. they are a different breed .. nice guys finish last .. when I think crazy I think of a couple of my ex teammates who were tenders .. off da wall types, who like enforcers, you just never know, even if teammates, what da h*ll they are gonna say or do

This is pretty accurate, with the exception of King Henrik.

 

[Havoc]

Random source of information: Murray is only 49% owned in Yahoo Fantasy. That's significant for fantasy since there's 12 teams in most leagues with 2 goalie spots and at least half the teams roster 3 goalies.

In contrast Ilya is 80% owned.

I've been playing fantasy for a decade now, take it with a grain of salt but these public opinions usually end up correct.

Ilya is the current front runner to take over Leafs net as declared by the fantasy community.

Would be nice if they're right since Samsonov would have 5-7 years in him and has a vezina winning ceiling even if on a middle of the pack team. Not a gamble goalie if he meets his potential, will jump into Saros tier.

 

[Shooter2x]

Random source of information: Murray is only 49% owned in Yahoo Fantasy. That's significant for fantasy since there's 12 teams in most leagues with 2 goalie spots and at least half the teams roster 3 goalies.

In contrast Ilya is 80% owned.

I've been playing fantasy for a decade now, take it with a grain of salt but these public opinions usually end up correct.

Ilya is the current front runner to take over Leafs net as declared by the fantasy community.

Would be nice if they're right since Samsonov would have 5-7 years in him and has a vezina winning ceiling even if on a middle of the pack team. Not a gamble goalie if he meets his potential, will jump into Saros tier.

Unorthodox reporting but interesting nonetheless. Gotta attack all angles.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Random source of information: Murray is only 49% owned in Yahoo Fantasy. That's significant for fantasy since there's 12 teams in most leagues with 2 goalie spots and at least half the teams roster 3 goalies.

In contrast Ilya is 80% owned.

I've been playing fantasy for a decade now, take it with a grain of salt but these public opinions usually end up correct.

Ilya is the current front runner to take over Leafs net as declared by the fantasy community.

Would be nice if they're right since Samsonov would have 5-7 years in him and has a vezina winning ceiling even if on a middle of the pack team. Not a gamble goalie if he meets his potential, will jump into Saros tier.

Murray is rising though 67 adds 6 drops and 4 trades.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

I think injuries played a role with Campbell but you may be actually underselling things here.

Looking at goalies after Jan.14th (the 2nd half of the season+), 52 played 800+ minutes, here are the top 5 that statistically had the best D in front of them (along with their save%):

Goalies with the lowest xGA/60:
1. Talbot : .914
2. Swayman: .911
3. Ullmark: .915
4. Campbell: .886
5. Markstrom: .920

The combination of awful goalkeeping behind elite D numbers makes things even worse IMO.

Campbell's ranking out of 52 across the board:

GSAA/60: -.57 (51 out of 52)
Save%: .886 (Tied for dead last)

Looking at his playoff numbers after that:

GSAA/60: -.49
Save%: .897

Not sure why some are surprised at him being cut loose and I still think it's weird to see a "gambling" narrative with Samsonov (x1 year) and Murray(x2 years + picks) when signing a north of 30 Campbell to 5+ year deal after failing in his only full season as a starter is a comparable.

What happens if all three fail to live up to expectations?

Considering health is the most likely cause of a Murray failure, hhe Leafs have the flexibility and the Oilers are screwed due to the term.

Campbell was fine on most play that influence xGA. He break down when Leafs D broke down around the net and around the crease. He's not good goalie for a team forced to play Boosh beside Rielly against Tampa because of how soft the backend is around the crease. But most Middle of the pack goalies like Campbell would break down in that situation.

Leafs need an actual top 10 goalie to balance physicality issues on the backend so hope one of these guys rise to the challenge and become one for the full season. It's a 60 minute game does not matter how low xGA is if you can't clear the crease and tie guys up around the net. That's hockey fundamentals. The coach agrees too.

 

[makbeer]

When I hear a tender is a headcase that is to be expected .. I did not know one tender in over 20 years of playing competitive hockey who was not a headcase .. they are a different breed .. nice guys finish last .. when I think crazy I think of a couple of my ex teammates who were tenders .. off da wall types, who like enforcers, you just never know, even if teammates, what da h*ll they are gonna say or do

LOL. Guilty as charged brother.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Random source of information: Murray is only 49% owned in Yahoo Fantasy. That's significant for fantasy since there's 12 teams in most leagues with 2 goalie spots and at least half the teams roster 3 goalies.

In contrast Ilya is 80% owned.

I've been playing fantasy for a decade now, take it with a grain of salt but these public opinions usually end up correct.

Ilya is the current front runner to take over Leafs net as declared by the fantasy community.

Would be nice if they're right since Samsonov would have 5-7 years in him and has a vezina winning ceiling even if on a middle of the pack team. Not a gamble goalie if he meets his potential, will jump into Saros tier.

I think most of that has to do with injury history. I know I won't take anyone like a Malkin or Seguin because I know they're gonna miss like 30 games. I thought about taking Murray as my 3rd goalie in my draft last night as a potential steal but I ended up taking Samsonov as my 2nd and Blackwood as my 3rd in a 14 man league.

 

[zeke]

Campbell was fine on most play that influence xGA. He break down when Leafs D broke down around the net and around the crease.

That's not true tho. Jack's issues actually came on the more routine chances, not the tough ones.