Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Zybalto]

That's not true tho. Jack's issues actually came on the more routine chances, not the tough ones.

...and it came out he was playing hurt during the 2nd half before he eventually went on the DL. (Why do people keep ignoring this)

Hes never been great on HD chances anyways but once he started letting in a ton of weaker shots, its not a surpise he ended up going from an all star to arguably the worst starter the 2nd half of the season.

Up until Jan.14th, he had the 2nd best save % in the NHL since he joined the Leafs because the Leafs were so good at protecting him and finally had a goalie that was competent and healthy (until then) to take advantage of it.

Im not even sure what the argument is on the opposite side here.

The Leafs defensive numbers and system didnt all of a sudden change in front of him and he admits playing through injury the 2nd half of last year confirming the fears that he isnt built to be a full season starter. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

 

[Zybalto]

Campbell was fine on most play that influence xGA. He break down when Leafs D broke down around the net and around the crease. He's not good goalie for a team forced to play Boosh beside Rielly against Tampa because of how soft the backend is around the crease. But most Middle of the pack goalies like Campbell would break down in that situation.

Leafs need an actual top 10 goalie to balance physicality issues on the backend so hope one of these guys rise to the challenge and become one for the full season. It's a 60 minute game does not matter how low xGA is if you can't clear the crease and tie guys up around the net. That's hockey fundamentals. The coach agrees too.

Almost 2 calandar years with the 2nd best save% in hockey among regular keepers and then the Leafs D (with top 10 numbers accross the board) caused the issues?

.....Or was it the admitted injury issues?

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

That's not true tho. Jack's issues actually came on the more routine chances, not the tough ones.

I said he was fine though, not great. That helps support that the softness issue will be even worse stats wise and then you plummet down into embarrassing levels.

Saying the Leafs D is soft is not the same as saying the D sucks. The D is elite in many things, but it is soft around the net and crease and Campbell is not a goalie who can survive that no matter what the xGA is and not a lot of the starters in the league will be great in that either. Murray will have to live up to his hot stretch last season to be a top 10 goalie and offset soft issues.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Almost 2 calandar years with the 2nd best save% in hockey among regular keepers and then the Leafs D (with top 10 numbers accross the board) caused the issues?

.....Or was it the admitted injury issues?

Mutual relationship between Campbell and D problems. The D is soft around the net, that's a fact not opinion unless people want to fantasize. Campbell is a middle of the pack goalie, he's not a great goalie. And his deficiencies include looking lost when his defence plays soft around the net. His stats relative to our xGA literally shows you this and if you take many of the middle of the pack goalies in the league and put them as our no.1 during that 2022 stretch we were barely scraping .500 and soft as butter around our net, their stats would nose dive too.

 

[zeke]

Mutual relationship between Campbell and D problems. The D is soft around the net, that's a fact not opinion unless people want to fantasize. Campbell is a middle of the pack goalie, he's not a great goalie. And his deficiencies include looking lost when his defence plays soft around the net. His stats relative to our xGA literally shows you this and if you take many of the middle of the pack goalies in the league and put them as our no.1 during that 2022 stretch we were barely scraping .500 and soft as butter around our net, their stats would nose dive too.

I mean literally Jack's biggest issues last year were shots from medium range.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

I mean literally Jack's biggest issues last year were shots from medium range.

I mean literally the relation between xGA and our GA/60 is too drastic to not say it also exposes how soft the backend is too when it is fact our backend is soft around the net. You would need to be insane to just pin that on goaltending alone. Middle of the pack goalies won't survive here if that remains an issue doesn't matter how low the xGA gets.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I mean literally the relation between xGA and our GA/60 is too drastic to not say it also exposes how soft the backend is too when it is fact our backend is soft around the net.

The relationship between xGA and GA/60 suggests the issue is that our goaltending did not perform well. When we look deeper into Campbell's metrics for instance, we see that the issue had nothing to do with us being "soft around the net", as you incorrectly label. We actually perform quite well around the net, and those aren't the shots he started allowing.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

The relationship between xGA and GA/60 suggests the issue is that our goaltending did not perform well. When we look deeper into Campbell's metrics for instance, we see that the issue had nothing to do with us being "soft around the net", as you incorrectly label. We actually perform quite well around the net.

We are soft around the net. If you have time to waste today knock yourself out in fantasy land debating that with someone who has time to waste too.

 

[Metroid]

Random source of information: Murray is only 49% owned in Yahoo Fantasy. That's significant for fantasy since there's 12 teams in most leagues with 2 goalie spots and at least half the teams roster 3 goalies.

In contrast Ilya is 80% owned.

I've been playing fantasy for a decade now, take it with a grain of salt but these public opinions usually end up correct.

Ilya is the current front runner to take over Leafs net as declared by the fantasy community.

Would be nice if they're right since Samsonov would have 5-7 years in him and has a vezina winning ceiling even if on a middle of the pack team. Not a gamble goalie if he meets his potential, will jump into Saros tier.

I took both just incase and Saros from last year as one of my keeprs

 

[zeke]

I mean literally the relation between xGA and our GA/60 is too drastic to not say it also exposes how soft the backend is too when it is fact our backend is soft around the net. You would need to be insane to just pin that on goaltending alone. Middle of the pack goalies won't survive here if that remains an issue doesn't matter how low the xGA gets.

Campbell was elite for half the year and horrendous for half the year.

Do you think this is because the defense changed how they play?

Remember, the horrendous half of the year came when the Leafs added Boosh and Gio.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We are soft around the net.

We aren't soft around the net, but even if we were, the fact is that's not why Campbell's stats nosedived anyway.

 

[hotpaws]

Campbell was elite for half the year and horrendous for half the year.

Do you think this is because the defense changed how they play?

Remember, the horrendous half of the year came when the Leafs added Boosh and Gio.

Jack was 7-0-2 with a ,915 save % in Apr .

 

[zeke]

Jack was 7-0-2 with a ,915 save % in Apr .

Boosh was added Feb 22.

 

[hotpaws]

Boosh was added Feb 22.

so he was there in Apr when Jack played very well contrary to you saying he was ''horrendous'' the entire time since the team added Gio and Boosh

 

[Dekes For Days]

Boosh was added Feb 22.

So 0.892 SV% with Boosh's awesome toughness inserted...
And 0.922 SV% with just soft as butter noodle D...
Hmm...

 

[Zybalto]

Mutual relationship between Campbell and D problems. The D is soft around the net, that's a fact not opinion unless people want to fantasize. Campbell is a middle of the pack goalie, he's not a great goalie. And his deficiencies include looking lost when his defence plays soft around the net. His stats relative to our xGA literally shows you this and if you take many of the middle of the pack goalies in the league and put them as our no.1 during that 2022 stretch we were barely scraping .500 and soft as butter around our net, their stats would nose dive too.

Feb. 2020- January 14th, 2022:

Top 5 goalies with over 2000 minutes played:

1. Saros: .930 with 2.59 xGA
2. Campbell: .928 with 2.47 xGA
3. Shesterkin: .927 with 2.88 xGA
4. Vasy: .923 with 2.39 xGA
5. Varlamov: .922 with 2.43 xGA


January 15th, 2022 - end of season:

Campbell is playing with a lingering rib injury that gets worse and he actually spends time on the DL. This has all been admitted and makes perfect sense.

Campbell: .886 with 2.44 xGA

Yes, Campbell has issues with HD chances but lucky for him he was on a team that didnt give up a lot of them. If they were so soft around the net it would 100% being showing up in xGA, rebound and HDCA numbers right?

During that awful stretch for him, here are the numbers and rank out of the 42 goalies with 1000+ minutes over that stretch:

xGA/60: 2.44 (4th lowest out of 42 goalies)

HD shots against/60: 7.46 (7th fewest out of 42 goalies)

Rebound attempts against/60: 2.85 (4th fewest out of 42 goalies)


If the Leafs had a middle of the pack goalie during that stretch (instead of a hurt Campbell, another guy who blew his groin out and an AHLer), they would have been in a dogfight for the Presidents trophy.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Campbell was elite for half the year and horrendous for half the year.

Do you think this is because the defense changed how they play?

Remember, the horrendous half of the year came when the Leafs added Boosh and Gio.

In March 2022 almost the whole season over and confirmed goalie travesties, Sheldon Keefe is making quotes about us making life hard on our goalies. There is literally no debate here. It was a combo of Campbell not being as great as his start suggested he was, and the deficiency that do exist in our D. Divide up the blame % how you want I don't have issue with how you divide it up because I am focus on the general conclusion which is important towards how to build the team properly.

Boosh is easy to counter because if they thought he was a main problem for it he would not have been a starter against Tampa with Rielly. Things need to make sense. His spot in lineup only makes sense because the soft issues is actually an issue.

Our D is elite in many things but making life easy for the goalies when the puck is around the net is not one of them (or even from mid range as keefe has complained about tips and lanes). I think I will stick to what happened in real life that is more in support of our D being too soft in some areas. Even the xGA shows it because that xGA is way too good for a goalie to have stats like that, so something amplified it even more. No physicality on the backend is suspect no.1 for this amplification.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

So 0.892 SV% with Boosh's awesome toughness inserted...
And 0.922 SV% with just soft as butter noodle D...
Hmm...

Two stats used in sarcasm offers zero to this topic. The emoji is the most useful thing you said.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Feb. 2020- January 14th, 2022:

Top 5 goalies with over 2000 minutes played:

1. Saros: .930 with 2.59 xGA
2. Campbell: .928 with 2.47 xGA
3. Shesterkin: .927 with 2.88 xGA
4. Vasy: .923 with 2.39 xGA
5. Varlamov: .922 with 2.43 xGA


January 15th, 2022 - end of season:

Campbell is playing with a lingering rib injury that gets worse and he actually spends time on the DL. This has all been admitted and makes perfect sense.

Campbell: .886 with 2.44 xGA

Yes, Campbell has issues with HD chances but lucky for him he was on a team that didnt give up a lot of them. If they were so soft around the net it would 100% being showing up in xGA, rebound and HDCA numbers right?

During that awful stretch for him, here are the numbers and rank out of the 42 goalies with 1000+ minutes over that stretch:

xGA/60: 2.44 (4th lowest out of 42 goalies)

HD shots against/60: 7.46 (7th fewest out of 42 goalies)

Rebound attempts against/60: 2.85 (4th fewest out of 42 goalies)


If the Leafs had a middle of the pack goalie during that stretch (instead of a hurt Campbell, another guy who blew his groin out and an AHLer), they would have been in a dogfight for the Presidents trophy.

I like your posts they are very well done and you actually show why the other person might be wrong. For our sake I am rooting for you, but based on real life as well, physicality on the backend is a genuine suspect still.

 

[Shooter2x]

Just giving information, not taking sides. Do with the information what you please:

When we lost 6-3 to the Rangers, Rielly also made comments about the D needing to clean up around the net better. He clarified that his comments have nothing to do with Keefes comments about being soft that game, as he was unaware Keefe even said that.

Then later in the season Keefe is not pleased with play around the net.

So, up to you if you think it was a one game issue, or if it was a lingering issue that was never solved due to the time lapse between comments and events, to the point a lot of people are left wondering to this day what exactly Boosh was doing in the lineup beside Rielly in the playoffs.

I forgot to mention it's also up to you if you think Rielly and Keefe were just straight up dead wrong about how they assessed things.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Two stats used in sarcasm offers zero to this topic.

When you're arguing that Campbell's nosedive was because of "soft D", in contrast to all of the evidence, then I'd say stats showing that Campbell's worse period came when we had tougher D is relevant, and certainly offers more than your incorrect assessments of our D and goaltending.

 

[andora]

not really sure if this was useful, but had some time and was curious. top half is campbell month by month through the season. first group of numbers is leafs as a team, then below specifically campbell. in the middle there are some other details i added. the top half the greens are above league average amongst those 31 goalies, the yellows are when he faced above league averages shots in those categories.

the bottom half is same group of stats, but the colors are working off the middle right column, where i looked at the top 10 of those 31 goalies in each SV% category, and then looked at what shots they faced on average. the greens on the bottom are where campbell exceeded the save % in those top 10 guys, and the yellows are where he faced more shots in a category than those top 10 guys did.

 

[zeke]

not really sure if this was useful, but had some time and was curious. top half is campbell month by month through the season. first group of numbers is leafs as a team, then below specifically campbell. in the middle there are some other details i added. the top half the greens are above league average amongst those 31 goalies, the yellows are when he faced above league averages shots in those categories.

the bottom half is same group of stats, but the colors are working off the middle right column, where i looked at the top 10 of those 31 goalies in each SV% category, and then looked at what shots they faced on average. the greens on the bottom are where campbell exceeded the save % in those top 10 guys, and the yellows are where he faced more shots in a category than those top 10 guys did.

View attachment 589301

nice. I appreciate the effort in this post.

 

[saltming]

@Mess

 

[Stephen]

Missed the game but Murray looked very strong in the highlights.