Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Gary Nylund]

Somehow these posters think that Campbell was awful for us but have zero complaints about the guy who is responsible for said player being on the team during a contending season.

These same posters blame everything on Lou or babs, even though they've been gone for a few years.

It's clear they are physically or mentally unable to blame anything on dubas.

I mean, after every first round loss, the dubas fan boys tell us it wasn't dubas' fault, it's the players.

Well who decides to trade for/ sign those players? Who decided who coaches? Who decided how much to pay everyone? It's the gm.

If we had beat Tampa in round 1 and made it to the 2nd or third round, these same posters would be praising dubas (even more). But since we keep losing, they have to keep making excuses. I've never seen anything like this. It's insane.

The above is what it looks like when you're so upset about something, that you can no longer think rationally and all you're capable of is repetitive mindless rants.

It’s just within the realm of possibility this could be good for Toronto and bad for Edmonton, bad for Toronto and good for Edmonton, good for Toronto and Edmonton and bad for Toronto and Edmonton.

And for contrast, this is what calm, rational thought looks like.

 

[saltming]

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

 

[Stephen]

Watching some Matt Murray tape, it really looks like he doesn't have a lot of explosive lateral movement as advertised but can get across/over in an emergency play on account of his big rangy frame. Once he's down though you really want the defense to be able to support down low and help box out the heavy traffic so he doesn't get run over or you can keep those second and third chances down. Nothing too special but makes sense what the In Goal guys were saying re: championship Penguins bluelines being able to give him support. Maybe Brian Dumoulin could be a trade target if Pittsburgh isn't a big contender this year. One year left on his $4.1 million deal.

 

[andora]

Watching some Matt Murray tape, it really looks like he doesn't have a lot of explosive lateral movement as advertised but can get across/over in an emergency play on account of his big rangy frame. Once he's down though you really want the defense to be able to support down low and help box out the heavy traffic so he doesn't get run over or you can keep those second and third chances down. Nothing too special but makes sense what the In Goal guys were saying re: championship Penguins bluelines being able to give him support. Maybe Brian Dumoulin could be a trade target if Pittsburgh isn't a big contender this year. One year left on his $4.1 million deal.

Kind of ironic this all came out about how to support murray like pittsburgh did

But as campbell flailed in high danger i dont recall anything specific aboit adjusting to support

Different goalies and styles but same area of the ice

 

[allfornothing]

The above is what it looks like when you're so upset about something, that you can no longer think rationally and all you're capable of is repetitive mindless rants.


And for contrast, this is what calm, rational thought looks like.

Rational thought is saying anything could happen? Thats just mindless speculation? There isn’t even a reasoned argument? You have to first make an argument for it to be rational or not. It’s not an argument to say lets see what happens.

Stamkos4Life is referencing real opinions of leafs fans. You can scroll through some of these threads to see what he’s talking about. Montreal went to the finals and still fired their GM when they knew he couldn’t take them any further. Toronto fans make every excuse for Kyle they can think of. Nothing is his fault. He gave up first round picks to buy goalies that cost more than last season but have worse numbers!!

 

[Stamkos4life]

The above is what it looks like when you're so upset about something, that you can no longer think rationally and all you're capable of is repetitive mindless rants.


And for contrast, this is what calm, rational thought looks like.

This is what someone posts when they can't address a single point and result to insults.

My entire post is factual.

Can't say I'm surprised it's coming from you though.

One thing the dubas fan boys have in common is that they completely ignore any facts that don't align with their narrative and spout nonsense instead.

 

[Zybalto]

It's not a shock or surprise that Murray didn't thrive behind a terrible defensive team in Ottawa that was also a bottom feeder in the standings, but he also lost his job to Anton Forsberg who posted better numbers and earned a platoon job moving forward. From what Noodles said about Murray/Ottawa, their big issue was coming out of the gate slowly, so this October runway is going to be a big test.

One thing to add here would be that Murray played a big chunk of games when a bunch of regulars had covid.

Not taking anything away from Forsberg (who was excellent last season), it explains the biggish gap between their individual xGA's on the same team with solid sample sizes. I'll throw in the Leafs regular from keepers last season to show the difference as well.


xGA/60:

Campbell: 2.51
Mrazek: 2.53
Kallgren: 2.58
Forsberg: 2.98
Murray: 3.12 (bottom 5 of all regular keepers who played 1000+ minutes)

Much of this difference comes from January/Feb.:

Murray:
xGA/60: 3.45 - The worst D in hockey for any goalie over those 2 months
Save%: .932

Forsberg:
xGA/60: 2.47 - One of the better D's in front of a goalie
Save%: .926

Murray was pretty bad in his 6 games early on (hence his demotion to work things out) but was easily one of the better keepers in hockey for those two months and then got injured again. Ottawa certainly began to play better defensive hockey after the regular players came back as well. The numbers are actually saying there may be some truth behind them being a playoff threat this season if they stay healthy as a team.

It's why it's tough to make any solid predictions on how well Murray will do with 2 wildly different defensive teams to base things on and a wildly up and down season.

The only thing we can do is hope he stays healthy and then see how it plays out.

 

[Stephen]

Kind of ironic this all came out about how to support murray like pittsburgh did

But as campbell flailed in high danger i dont recall anything specific aboit adjusting to support

Different goalies and styles but same area of the ice

It’s more about having the personnel on defense to protect the crease and whatever goalie we have in there. Tampa has a redwood forest in front of their D.

 

[Fogelhund]

“Mental collapse” yeah ok. If the leafs would’ve scored more than one goal in game 7 for him he would still be a leaf.

No.

 

[Stephen]

One thing to add here would be that Murray played a big chunk of games when a bunch of regulars had covid.

Not taking anything away from Forsberg (who was excellent last season), it explains the biggish gap between their individual xGA's on the same team with solid sample sizes. I'll throw in the Leafs regular from keepers last season to show the difference as well.


xGA/60:

Campbell: 2.51
Mrazek: 2.53
Kallgren: 2.58
Forsberg: 2.98
Murray: 3.12 (bottom 5 of all regular keepers who played 1000+ minutes)

Much of this difference comes from January/Feb.:

Murray:
xGA/60: 3.45 - The worst D in hockey for any goalie over those 2 months
Save%: .932

Forsberg:
xGA/60: 2.47 - One of the better D's in front of a goalie
Save%: .926

Murray was pretty bad in his 6 games early on (hence his demotion to work things out) but was easily one of the better keepers in hockey for those two months and then got injured again. Ottawa certainly began to play better defensive hockey after the regular players came back as well. The numbers are actually saying there may be some truth behind them being a playoff threat this season if they stay healthy as a team.

It's why it's tough to make any solid predictions on how well Murray will do with 2 wildly different defensive teams to base things on and a wildly up and down season.

The only thing we can do is hope he stays healthy and then see how it plays out.

Yeah basically all we can do is just see how plays out. The variables between Ottawa and Toronto are just so different and like you said, random pandemic factors. The success or failure of Murray is up in the air. Can’t wait for camp to kick off and start getting updates.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Rational thought is saying anything could happen? Thats just mindless speculation? There isn’t even a reasoned argument? You have to first make an argument for it to be rational or not. It’s not an argument to say lets see what happens.

Stamkos4Life is referencing real opinions of leafs fans. You can scroll through some of these threads to see what he’s talking about. Montreal went to the finals and still fired their GM when they knew he couldn’t take them any further. Toronto fans make every excuse for Kyle they can think of. Nothing is his fault. He gave up first round picks to buy goalies that cost more than last season but have worse numbers!!

Saying anything could happen is stating a simple obvious fact, why does this upset you?

Strange that you're triggered by someone stating this simple fact, yet you don't seem to have a problem with people saying things like we'll never win anything as long as Dubas is the GM which is not only mindless speculation, but clearly irrational.

This is what someone posts when they can't address a single point and result to insults.

My entire post is factual.

Can't say I'm surprised it's coming from you though.

One thing the dubas fan boys have in common is that they completely ignore any facts that don't align with their narrative and spout nonsense instead.

 

[Mess]

One thing to add here would be that Murray played a big chunk of games when a bunch of regulars had covid.

Murray was pretty bad in his 6 games early on (hence his demotion to work things out) but was easily one of the better keepers in hockey for those two months and then got injured again. Ottawa certainly began to play better defensive hockey after the regular players came back as well. The numbers are actually saying there may be some truth behind them being a playoff threat this season if they stay healthy as a team.

The only thing we can do is hope he stays healthy and then see how it plays out.

If you can't beat them join them they say.

Leafs played Ottawa 4 times last season in 2021-22

In 3 of those games the Sens played their #1 goalie Anton Forsberg

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, Oct 14[/TD]
[TD]@Ottawa[/TD]
[TD]L 3-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Oct 16[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 3-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 16[/TD]
[TD]@Ottawa[/TD]
[TD]W 5-4 OT[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The 1 time the Sens decided to play Murray against our Leafs.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Jan 1[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 6-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Matt Murray 6.0 GA/G and .850 sv% allowing 6 goals in 40 shots.

FWIW: Leafs played Ottawa 8 times in 2020-21 in the CDN Div. Murray appeared in 4 of those games including this one.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, Feb 18[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 7-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

6 goals against on 26 shots with .769 sv% in just 48 minutes of play,

Murray splits vs Toronto in 2020-21 were 1 win 3 losses .. 3.72 GA/G and .880 SV % in those 4 games.

Conclusion: Matt Murray is very glad Auston Matthews & his pals are now shooting on the opposite net.

 

[andora]

It’s more about having the personnel on defense to protect the crease and whatever goalie we have in there. Tampa has a redwood forest in front of their D.

Fair.. but pittsburgh wasnt big.. they were quick with their sticks rotation and support

 

[Mess]

Not taking anything away from Forsberg (who was excellent last season), it explains the biggish gap between their individual xGA's on the same team with solid sample sizes. I'll throw in the Leafs regular from keepers last season to show the difference as well.


xGA/60:

Campbell: 2.51
Mrazek: 2.53
Kallgren: 2.58
Forsberg: 2.98
Murray: 3.12 (bottom 5 of all regular keepers who played 1000+ minutes)

Since you have a real solid grasp of underlying factors, I thought you would be a good person to ask these questions. please.

Anton Forsberg in front of much weaker defense outplayed Jack Campbell last year.

Both goalies played in similar # of games .. faced similar shots against, saves, and goals against, making a good comparison with Forsberg SV% and GSAx interesting factors.

If the Leafs defense in front of Campbell is so much better than Sens defense than how do we explain these numbers?

Wouldn't it be a better gamble to pull a goalie who posts strong #'s in front of a weak defense?

Could it be the Leafs went and got the wrong Sens goalie? Forsberg only has $2,750,000 AAV and had the Leafs retained Campbell for $5 mil their goaltending tandem for next year could include both above and not much different in cap usage then Murray/Samsonov now?.

 

[Zybalto]

If you can't beat them join them they say.

Leafs played Ottawa 4 times last season in 2021-22

In 3 of those games the Sens played their #1 goalie Anton Forsberg

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, Oct 14[/TD]
[TD]@Ottawa[/TD]
[TD]L 3-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Oct 16[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 3-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 16[/TD]
[TD]@Ottawa[/TD]
[TD]W 5-4 OT[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The 1 time the Sens decided to play Murray against our Leafs.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Jan 1[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 6-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Matt Murray 6.0 GA/G and .850 sv% allowing 6 goals in 40 shots.

FWIW: Leafs played Ottawa 8 times in 2020-21 in the CDN Div. Murray appeared in 4 of those games including this one.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, Feb 18[/TD]
[TD]vsOttawa[/TD]
[TD]W 7-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

6 goals against on 26 shots with .769 sv% in just 48 minutes of play,

Murray splits vs Toronto in 2020-21 were 1 win 3 losses .. 3.72 GA/G and .880 SV % in those 4 games.

Conclusion: Matt Murray is very glad Auston Matthews & his pals are now shooting on the opposite net.

Yup, I'm sure Murray liked what he saw on the other side of that 6-0 loss (in which Murray was actually decent compared to the rest of the covid riddled team) Scoring chances 46-18 and HD chances 17-5 Leafs in that game. Hung out to dry big time. Luckily for the Sens, he rebounded after that first tough start back and put up a .941 to the end of Feb. (outplaying Forsberg, aint competition a motivator?) as one of the better goalies in hockey before getting hurt.

....and yup, he got burned that night last year against the Leafs (most teams did) but he was far better than his backup all season and put up 2 .920 games against the Leafs too.

He just has to stay healthy IMO but my confidence in that is lacking.

 

[Zybalto]

Since you have a real solid grasp of underlying factors, I thought you would be a good person to ask these questions. please.

Anton Forsberg in front of much weaker defense outplayed Jack Campbell last year.

Both goalies played in similar # of games .. faced similar shots against, saves, and goals against, making a good comparison with Forsberg SV% and GSAx interesting factors.

View attachment 584819

If the Leafs defense in front of Campbell is so much better than Sens defense than how do we explain these numbers?

Wouldn't it be a better gamble to pull a goalie who posts strong #'s in front of a weak defense?

Could it be the Leafs went and got the wrong Sens goalie? Forsberg only has $2,750,000 AAV and had the Leafs retained Campbell for $5 mil their goaltending tandem for next year could include both above and not much different in cap usage then Murray/Samsonov now?.

The difference there is term for Campbell and Forsberg wasnt available. (all the goalies available had their warts or were a stupidly high price IMO.)

The big worrys about Campbell at the start of the covid division season were workload and injuries (you must remember this). He stayed relatively healthy was able to put up great numbers (second best save% in all of hockey behind the Leafs great D) over a backup stint, a shortened season and half of this past one as the legit starter but then took an injury, tried to play through it and then had to sit out (confirming the worst fears).

Add in the fact he was bad in big playoff games and you had to think about committing 5 years to an unproven starter with workload/injury issues who wasnt good in big playoff games.

The big issue for the Leafs goaltending the last 3 seasons has been, by far, injury issues. From Andersen trying to play through stuff his last 2 seasons (he's admitted as much) to Campbell's meltdown this season to Mrazek (who had been a successful tandem guy in the past) blowing his groin out in the first game and never being able to get back on track.

You seem a little too invested in doom and gloom here. Let's wait and see how it unfolds now. It's been analyzed to death and no one can be that certain about the good and bad. Murray has 2 rings and Samsonov has got massive potential. Both will be super motivated and playing behind a top 5 team out front.

 

[The90]

This is what someone posts when they can't address a single point and result to insults.

My entire post is factual.

Can't say I'm surprised it's coming from you though.

One thing the dubas fan boys have in common is that they completely ignore any facts that don't align with their narrative and spout nonsense instead.

That pesky Dubas, again!

 

[The90]

The above is what it looks like when you're so upset about something, that you can no longer think rationally and all you're capable of is repetitive mindless rants.


And for contrast, this is what calm, rational thought looks like.

Agreed. Senselessly whining about one particular person to the point that you can’t say anything objective or acknowledge anything positive is neither constructive or correct. I become very weary of people who have opinions on pretty near anything that’s 100% one way or the other. It’s usually not based in sound reasoning. It’s based on emotion. Some of us can’t see that.

 

[Stephen]

Fair.. but pittsburgh wasnt big.. they were quick with their sticks rotation and support

They had a nice mix during their cup runs. Dumoulin and Hainsey were good defenders with wingspan, Ian Cole was a bowling ball, Scuderi was your classic intelligent defender. Letang is your all situation superstar (though he was missing for one run) and Daley could skate like the wind.

 

[andora]

They had a nice mix during their cup runs. Dumoulin and Hainsey were good defenders with wingspan, Ian Cole was a bowling ball, Scuderi was your classic intelligent defender. Letang is your all situation superstar (though he was missing for one run) and Daley could skate like the wind.

forgetting lovejoy on the first team and schultz/maatta for both..

they bought in played the system needed down low

 

[Stephen]

forgetting lovejoy on the first team and schultz/maatta for both..

they bought in played the system needed down low

Yeah I don’t remember anything about Maatta on those runs but you’re right Schultz was good coming over from Edmonton.

 

[zeke]

PIT 16-17

1. Dumoulin (25, 6'4" 205): 21:59
2. Hainsey (35, 6'3", 205): 21:07

3. Matta (22, 6'2", 210): 20:37
4. Schultz (26, 6'2" 185): 19:44

5. Daley (33, 5'11", 200): 19:07
6. Cole (27, 6'1" 225): 18:50


I mean it's a terrible blueline no two ways about it. Dumoulin the only guy that ever resembled a top pair quality dman in their careers. Hainsey a solid #4.

The rest a bunch of guys who had to battle for top 4 duty at every step in their careers, and mostly didn't win those battles.

 

[Stephen]

PIT 16-17

1. Dumoulin (25, 6'4" 205): 21:59
2. Hainsey (35, 6'3", 205): 21:07

3. Matta (22, 6'2", 210): 20:37
4. Schultz (26, 6'2" 185): 19:44

5. Daley (33, 5'11", 200): 19:07
6. Cole (27, 6'1" 225): 18:50


I mean it's a terrible blueline no two ways about it. Dumoulin the only guy that ever resembled a top pair quality dman in their careers. Hainsey a solid #4.

The rest a bunch of guys who had to battle for top 4 duty at every step in their careers, and mostly didn't win those battles.

It's too superficial to write off a championship blueline by describing them as "terrible" without extracting what made them work well as a unit in front of Murray. If they did certain things defensively that helped Murray realize his potential as a cup winning goalie the Leafs should look at those elements and try to reproduce them.

 

[zeke]

It's too superficial to write off a championship blueline by describing them as "terrible" without extracting what made them work well as a unit in front of Murray. If they did certain things defensively that helped Murray realize his potential as a cup winning goalie the Leafs should look at those elements and try to reproduce them.

well let's take a look to see if we can see anything at all. I dont like "scoring chances" or "High danger chances" as stats really but I sense that that's the kind of thing you're referring to so let's see what naturalstatrick thinks:

16-17 Playoffs (rank of 16 teams):

#8 Shot Attempts Against
#9 Unblocked Shot Attempts Against
#12 Shots Against
#12 Scoring Chances Against
#9 High Danger Scoring Chances Against
#8 Expected Goals Against

#6 Goals Against
#3 Save Percentage
#1 Shooting Percentage
#1 Goals For

 

[Sypher04]

Not absolving Dubas of his poor signings whatsoever but I think it’s really comical that so many people here don’t seem to realize that every team makes both good and bad signings. Just about every single season