Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Isaac Nootin]

While Jack Campbell was not able to get the Leafs over the first round playoff win hurdle, regardless his personal stats rank among the best of Leafs goalies All-time.

Of the 107 goalies that wore the Leafs sweater his SV% as a Leaf @ .916 % average ranks him as 9th best ALL-TIme.

He would even rank higher as some of those above him played less than 10 games in a Leafs jersey. With only HHOF goalies Jacques Plante and Johnny Bower playing more games than him.

View attachment 583943

Jack Campbell's Goals Against Average per game of 2.50 ranks him 15th best ALL-TIme

View attachment 583945

Better than Joseph and Belfour.

He's a sure fire hall of famer!

Congrats, Jack!

 

[Stamkos4life]

When has a discussion about any key Leaf player been firewalled from the GM who traded for him or signed his contract, like they appeared out of thin air and no one is inherently responsible for why they're Leafs?

If Campbell was below average, it means the GM put a below average goalie in a wasted year of contention. That's what you would be implying.



I've kept a very even keel stance on Murray and Samsonov and both of them have unique upside and redemption potential. I just think you're downplaying Campbell unfairly to frame the new crew in a more positive light. We haven't even seen their new equipment.

Somehow these posters think that Campbell was awful for us but have zero complaints about the guy who is responsible for said player being on the team during a contending season.

These same posters blame everything on Lou or babs, even though they've been gone for a few years.

It's clear they are physically or mentally unable to blame anything on dubas.

I mean, after every first round loss, the dubas fan boys tell us it wasn't dubas' fault, it's the players.

Well who decides to trade for/ sign those players? Who decided who coaches? Who decided how much to pay everyone? It's the gm.

If we had beat Tampa in round 1 and made it to the 2nd or third round, these same posters would be praising dubas (even more). But since we keep losing, they have to keep making excuses. I've never seen anything like this. It's insane.

 

[ToneDog]

Could this be Murray showing up for Leaf camp physicals at Ford Centre?

View attachment 584278

He did miss 38 games last year due to injury afterall.

LOL. You are on fire.

 

[deprw]

I wouldn’t be too worried about how Jack chooses to celebrate a hypothetical Stanley Cup over the next 5 years but one of the consequences of a bet on yourself sales pitch to come to the Leafs is going to be a revolving door of good athletes who make good short term here and use it as a spring board elsewhere. If these guys choose to dunk on the Toronto organization after they win, you can’t control that. Only thing to do is win our own cup.

I just see these hyperboles bit odd and ridiculous and I think these same people would have complained after first mistake Kadri would have made here. Hard to see scenario where Jack is bitter toward us, he got better contract, then he could have got here and if he wins the Stanley Cup. Good for him.

I think you can be fairly critical towards Murray & Samsonov tandem, but I stand behind decision not to give that contract to Soup.

 

[Stephen]

I just see these hyperboles bit odd and ridiculous and I think these same people would have complained after first mistake Kadri would have made here. Hard to see scenario where Jack is bitter toward us, he got better contract, then he could have got here and if he wins the Stanley Cup. Good for him.

I think you can be fairly critical towards Murray & Samsonov tandem, but I stand behind decision not to give that contract to Soup.

I’m pretty detached about the whole thing. We could have given Campbell the money for relative continuity just to run it back flaws and all, and letting him go was fine too.

Murray and Samsonov both have major risks on the ice but are less of a burden in the salary and contract department. Both have unique upside to warrant staying tuned to see how it all unfolds.

It’s just within the realm of possibility this could be good for Toronto and bad for Edmonton, bad for Toronto and good for Edmonton, good for Toronto and Edmonton and bad for Toronto and Edmonton.

 

[mydnyte]

Murray last game was March 5th and missed the last 28 games of the regular season and what would have been the entire NHL playoffs.. The last released news was that he was hoping to get back on the ice for the 1st time since being acquired by Leafs in July, near the end of that month.

Sens GM believed Murray would be good to go for next season. Murray (concussion) will be available for the start of training camp in the fall, general manager Pierre Dorion told reporters Wednesday may 15th, per Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. Murray missed the final 28 games of the season while recovering from his concussion but is expected to be good to go for 2022-23.

Leafs Medical staff was able to review and examine Murray prior to the trade (as Ottawa allowed it) and they claimed they endorsed the trade after his team medical. Though he was cleared medically by the Maple Leafs prior to the trade becoming official, his recent string of injuries can't be ignored. He played in only 47 games over the two seasons with the Senators, limited by various ailments, including a concussion that ended his 2021-22 season.

However this latest concussion is Murray's 4th documented one now.

I guess the only 'bright' spot if Murray flops is the Leafs can LTIR him (injury history) and his cap hit is basically gone, but, we're back looking for a goalie again.

 

[Stephen]

I guess the only 'bright' spot if Murray flops is the Leafs can LTIR him (injury history) and his cap hit is basically gone, but, we're back looking for a goalie again.

Worst case scenario with Murray isn’t that bad because there’s the LTIR angle like you say. Under these circumstances I’d expect Samsonov to have a longer runway to prove himself. And if it all goes well, we could transition to Samsonov for the full time starter in 2023-24. Assume Murray would be on Robidas Island for his last year if that was the case.

 

[Mess]

I guess the only 'bright' spot if Murray flops is the Leafs can LTIR him (injury history) and his cap hit is basically gone, but, we're back looking for a goalie again.

Murray only played in 20 games last yeari, and only played in 27 the season prior.

Leafs I would expect are counting on him for 47 games minimum as their starter this season, which was his total past 2 years combined.

Murray only won 5 games last year 2021-22 and 10 games in 2020-21 in those last 47 stats [=.319 win rate] . So if he is expected to replace Campbell who played in 49 games and won 31 [= .633 win rate] of his starts, were going to need a significant improvement in his play, essentially doubling his win rate. Considering his sv% in Ottawa was .899 combined, and his combined last 3 years including last with Pens is also still .899 sv%., that sounds like a tall order,

Ottawa's other goalie Anton Forsberg stole the #1 job from Murray, and won 22 of his 44 starts [=.500 win rate] with GSAx of +8.5, while posting an impressive .917 SV% (= > Jack Campbell of .914 sv%) So its not the Sens team this was on the the player Murray.

He also missed 38 games last year due to documented injuries/illness = almost 1/2 a season.

So what is the bigger concern his health or his performance, and which one presents the greater risk to the Leafs season?

PS. LTIR might become the silver lining, if this gamble fails.

 

[ACC1224]

I guess the only 'bright' spot if Murray flops is the Leafs can LTIR him (injury history) and his cap hit is basically gone, but, we're back looking for a goalie again.

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Murray only played in 20 games last yeari, and only played in 27 the season prior.

Leafs I would expect are counting on him for 47 games minimum as their starter this season, which was his total past 2 years combined.

Murray only won 5 games last year 2021-22 and 10 games in 2020-21 in those last 47 stats [=.319 win rate] . So if he is expected to replace Campbell who played in 49 games and won 31 [= .633 win rate] of his starts, were going to need a significant improvement in his play, essentially doubling his win rate. Considering his sv% in Ottawa was .899 combined, and his combined last 3 years including last with Pens is also still .899 sv%., that sounds like a tall order,

Ottawa's other goalie Anton Forsberg stole the #1 job from Murray, and won 22 of his 44 starts [=.500 win rate] with GSAx of +8.5, while posting an impressive .917 SV% (= > Jack Campbell of .914 sv%) So its not the Sens team this was on the the player Murray.

He also missed 38 games last year due to documented injuries/illness = almost 1/2 a season.

So what is the bigger concern his health or his performance, and which one presents the greater risk to the Leafs season?

PS. LTIR might become the silver lining, if this gamble fails.

I would not go there on stats as Sens had the worst D in league (bottom 3 for sure) and our D were top 10 in league .. it makes a huge difference on tender stats .. it is major reason why i always say rules are for fools

 

[The Iceman]

Murray only played in 20 games last yeari, and only played in 27 the season prior.

Leafs I would expect are counting on him for 47 games minimum as their starter this season, which was his total past 2 years combined.

Murray only won 5 games last year 2021-22 and 10 games in 2020-21 in those last 47 stats [=.319 win rate] . So if he is expected to replace Campbell who played in 49 games and won 31 [= .633 win rate] of his starts, were going to need a significant improvement in his play, essentially doubling his win rate. Considering his sv% in Ottawa was .899 combined, and his combined last 3 years including last with Pens is also still .899 sv%., that sounds like a tall order,

Ottawa's other goalie Anton Forsberg stole the #1 job from Murray, and won 22 of his 44 starts [=.500 win rate] with GSAx of +8.5, while posting an impressive .917 SV% (= > Jack Campbell of .914 sv%) So its not the Sens team this was on the the player Murray.

He also missed 38 games last year due to documented injuries/illness = almost 1/2 a season.

So what is the bigger concern his health or his performance, and which one presents the greater risk to the Leafs season?

PS. LTIR might become the silver lining, if this gamble fails.

We got identical .888 from Mrazek and Kallgren last season and they were a combined 20-10. .667 win%.
So if Murray comes back with his .899 he should be good for a .700 win%. Pretty good...yes?

 

[Mess]

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

Ottawa wasn't afraid to place him on waivers and spend a month in the AHL trying to find his game. Leafs might not have any better option than to do the same.

GARRIOCH: Matt Murray returns to the Ottawa Senators after month-long stint in Belleville​

There was a familiar face back on the ice with the Ottawa Senators Tuesday.

Matt Murray was recalled from the club’s AHL affiliate in Belleville and skated with his Ottawa teammates at the Canadian Tire Centre.

The 27-year-old Murray, who cleared waivers last month and was assigned to Belleville on Nov. 28 to get his game together, was brought back to Ottawa after goaltender Anton Forsberg was placed in protocol after testing positive for COVID-19 Monday.

GARRIOCH: Matt Murray returns to the Ottawa Senators after month-long stint in Belleville

There was a familiar face back on the ice with the Ottawa Senators Tuesday.

ottawasun.com

 

[Fogelhund]

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

Where is Tonya Harding when you need her?

 

[Stephen]

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

On the Murray scatter plot of good to bad and healthy to injured I’m not seeing the possibility of poor play coupled with nagging good health for long stretches.

If he struggles it will probably be related to his body, and if he’s really good we’ll be praying for good health.

 

[The Iceman]

I see Leafs have invited Marco Constantini to rookie camp.
He had a fabulous year going 31-9 .917 for the Memorial Cup winning Hamilton Bulldogs.

 

[Stephen]

I would not go there on stats as Sens had the worst D in league (bottom 3 for sure) and our D were top 10 in league .. it makes a huge difference on tender stats .. it is major reason why i always say rules are for fools

From what I hear Murray had some good stretches in Ottawa as well but what really torpedoed Ottawa and Murray were their terrible season starts in 2021 and 2022. Also can’t let Murray off the hook too much for his bad stats in Ottawa cause they did bring him in to be a stabilizing force as they went in their rebuild. They didn’t bring him in to be a Shooter Tutor.

 

[Mess]

I would not go there on stats as Sens had the worst D in league (bottom 3 for sure) and our D were top 10 in league .. it makes a huge difference on tender stats .. it is major reason why i always say rules are for fools

The Sens team due to the strong play of Anton Forsberg actually finished ahead of the Leafs in Team SV% last year.

The Leafs finished 19th overall in total goals against with 252, Sens only finished a few spots lower and surrendered +12 more on the entire season.

There is this perception that the Leafs D is so much better, but the actual team SV% and actual goals against don't support that. Leafs and Sens both appeared in the bottom 1/2 a league.

 

[Mess]

We got identical .888 from Mrazek and Kallgren last season and they were a combined 20-10. .667 win%.

So if Murray comes back with his .899 he should be good for a .700 win%. Pretty good...yes?

Lets be honest we're not talking strong goaltending here, nor strong defense,

Leafs have 1/2 their cap invested in 4 high scoring forwards and its those core 4 that outscore the Leafs goaltending for the most part. Leafs win rate is based on if Leaf goalies surrender 3-4 goals against on >.900 sv% then Leafs need to score 4 or more to record a Win.

That works fine for the regular season because Leafs being the 2nd highest scoring team masks the team weakness its goaltending, by outscoring it. If it doesn't happen in a game no big deal, move on the next game. Law of averages with a +64 goal differential it will happen more times then not, based on Leafs 315 GF in 82 games = 3.84 GF/g vs 20th team ranked 3.07 GA/g.

However when the playoffs start and checking gets tighter Leafs offensive production drops and when opposition hold Leafs core 4 in check then their goaltending fails them, their secondary offense limited by Cap mismanagement and its lost in round #1 over and over again. That is because there is no next game in a best of 7 series and when GF and GA differential flatten out once GF = GA, it all comes down to the goalies making key and timely saves to win and advance.

Same conclusion every year Core 4 is fine, goaltending and secondary scoring needs improving, but with limited cap space it always bargin bin shopping for cheap depth players of other teams castoffs, and goaltending which should be priority #1 becomes an afterthought, and that is why the Leafs are going with reclamation projects in net, with a contract dump with retention and an unqualified RFA cut loose, because that is all they can afford to spend on the position.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is this perception that the Leafs D is so much better, but the actual team SV% and actual goals against don't support that.

The Leaf's defense is massively better. Team SV% and GA just aren't statistics that isolate defensive play - they are impacted by or are entirely about goaltending.

that is why the Leafs are going with reclamation projects in net, because that is all they can afford to spend.

Leafs could have afforded literally any goalie this offseason.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The Sens team due to the strong play of Anton Forsberg actually finished ahead of the Leafs in Team SV% last year.

View attachment 584334

The Leafs finished 19th overall in total goals against with 252, Sens only finished a few spots lower and surrendered +12 more on the entire season.

View attachment 584337

There is this perception that the Leafs D is so much better, but the actual team SV% and actual goals against don't support that. Leafs and Sens both appeared in the bottom 1/2 a league.

I don't get into stats i use da eye ball test .. to me Muzzy Brodie Lily and Gio when healthy far far better then Sens D .. Rielly Sandin and Holl ok defensively challenged for sure but Rielly and Sandin can help move da puck .. Holl I don't know why he is even on da team skill wise except for Dubie politics

 

[zeke]

Lets be honest we're not talking strong goaltending here, nor strong defense,

Leafs have 1/2 their cap invested in 4 high scoring forwards and its those core 4 that outscore the Leafs goaltending for the most part. Leafs win rate is based on if Leaf goalies surrender 3-4 goals against on >.900 sv% then Leafs need to score 4 or more to record a Win.

That works fine for the regular season because Leafs being the 2nd highest scoring team masks the team weakness its goaltending, by outscoring it. If it doesn't happen in a game no big deal, move on the next game. Law of averages with a +64 goal differential it will happen more times then not, based on Leafs 315 GF in 82 games = 3.84 GF/g vs 20th team ranked 3.07 GA/g.

However when the playoffs start and checking gets tighter Leafs offensive production drops and when opposition hold Leafs core 4 in check then their goaltending fails them, their secondary offense limited by Cap mismanagement and its lost in round #1 over and over again. That is because there is no next game in a best of 7 series and when GF and GA differential flatten out once GF = GA, it all comes down to the goalies making key and timely saves to win and advance.

Same conclusion every year Core 4 is fine, goaltending and secondary scoring needs improving, but with limited cap space it always bargin bin shopping for cheap depth players of other teams castoffs, and goaltending which should be priority #1 becomes an afterthought, and that is why the Leafs are going with reclamation projects in net, with a contract dump with retention and an unqualified RFA cut loose, because that is all they can afford to spend on the position.

ah the great mysteries of life.


TOR:

#9 Shots Against/60
#7 Unblocked Shot Attempts Against/60
#5 Shot Attempts Against/60
#3 Expected Goals Against/60
#22 Save Percentage
#18 Goals Against/60


OTT

#27 Shots Against/60
#25 Unblocked Shot Attempts Against/60
#26 Shot Attempts Against/60
#26 Expected Goals Against/60
#14 Save Percentage
#23 Goals Against/60

 

[Stephen]

It's not a shock or surprise that Murray didn't thrive behind a terrible defensive team in Ottawa that was also a bottom feeder in the standings, but he also lost his job to Anton Forsberg who posted better numbers and earned a platoon job moving forward. From what Noodles said about Murray/Ottawa, their big issue was coming out of the gate slowly, so this October runway is going to be a big test.

 

[Maplebeasts]

The Sens team due to the strong play of Anton Forsberg actually finished ahead of the Leafs in Team SV% last year.

View attachment 584334

The Leafs finished 19th overall in total goals against with 252, Sens only finished a few spots lower and surrendered +12 more on the entire season.

View attachment 584337

There is this perception that the Leafs D is so much better, but the actual team SV% and actual goals against don't support that. Leafs and Sens both appeared in the bottom 1/2 a league.

So the Sens let in more goals while getting better goaltending?

 

[Racer88]

What if he 'flops' but isn't injured?

Then Dubas goes on LTIR

 

[allfornothing]

Comparing goalie stats on different teams is a fool's errand. Few fans truly understand the Goaltending position beyond staring at a spreadsheet and watching highlights. The best information we have to go on is Murray's drive to return to form with 2 cups on his resume and Samsonov's 1st round pedigree to make it as a starter as he begins his prime years.

Not a bad backdrop for our goaltending, in my honest opinion. We had hoped Campbell's drive for a big contract would have carried us, and it almost did before he had a mental collapse, which ended any possibility of earning a long-term deal in Toronto.

“Mental collapse” yeah ok. If the leafs would’ve scored more than one goal in game 7 for him he would still be a leaf.