Combined Goalie Discussion Thread - PART TWO!

[Apex Predator]

Yeah the key is to just be reliable and consistent. If they can maintain an okay level of goaltending that would be preferable to the double nosedive.

Exactly they just need to avoid a nosedive. I think stinkers like this are to be expected from our tandem. They just need to avoid long stretches of it. Got to hope when playoffs come we get playoff level goalkeeping.

 

[PeE eL DuBoiS]

We get off to a good start with goalies, and our fan base is bragging on the main boards after 1 month. Now we're in slump for a few weeks and you guys want to waive one of them and rely on an AHL goalie after a 7 game stretch.

Good grief.

 

[Mess]

All Murray has to do is maintain his consistent career .912 and the Leafs will be more than fine. He was awful last night but that clearly doesn't define who he is a player. Samsonov is still a young guy going through ups and downs of development. We've seen him at his best, and at some suboar games. He'll be fine too.

There's not a goalie in the league who doesn't go through at least one rough patch a season. Folks should take a couple steps back from the ledge to say the least

Murray is just above your threshold at present after 15 games.

Currently sits 20th overall in with a .913 sv%.

However his last 6 games are definitely showing a trend in the wrong direction if he wants to remain at .912 sv%.

Matt Murray Totals (Last 6 games) ......................... Shots Against : 139 ... Saves : 121 ... Goals Against : 18 = Save % .0871

 

[Stephen]

Murray is just above your threshold at present after 15 games.

View attachment 631664

Currently sits 20th overall in with a .913 sv%.

However his last 6 games are definitely showing a trend in the wrong direction if he wants to remain at .912 sv%.

Matt Murray Totals (Last 6 games) ......................... Shots Against : 139 ... Saves : 121 ... Goals Against : 18 = Save % .0871

If Murray and Samsonov get a 50/50 split over the next 43 games remaining, they're each in charge of 21.5 more games.

Rounding down to 21 games each, treading water might be 11 average good starts each, 5 standout games each and 5 stinkers each.

Combined we'll have 22 average good starts left, 10 standout goalie games left and 10 stinkers. Assign a winning percentage to each type of game like:

10 excellent goalie games x .750%
22 good games x .680% (Current winning percentage)
10 stinkers x .300%

=25.5 more wins, or about 50-52 more points.

That would get us to roughly 105 points.

Feels like an MLB budget with a shaky pitching staff.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Sammy is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games now.

 

[Mess]

If Murray and Samsonov get a 50/50 split over the next 43 games remaining, they're each in charge of 21.5 more games.

Rounding down to 21 games each, treading water might be 11 average good starts each, 5 standout games each and 5 stinkers each.

Combined we'll have 22 average good starts left, 10 standout goalie games left and 10 stinkers. Assign a winning percentage to each type of game like:

10 excellent goalie games x .750%
22 good games x .680% (Current winning percentage)
10 stinkers x .300%

=25.5 more wins, or about 50-52 more points.

That would get us to roughly 105 points.

Feels like an MLB budget with a shaky pitching staff.

Pretty good forecasting model.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Murray and Samsonov get a 50/50 split over the next 43 games remaining, they're each in charge of 21.5 more games.
Rounding down to 21 games each, treading water might be 11 average good starts each, 5 standout games each and 5 stinkers each.
Combined we'll have 22 average good starts left, 10 standout goalie games left and 10 stinkers. Assign a winning percentage to each type of game like:
10 excellent goalie games x .750%
22 good games x .680% (Current winning percentage)
10 stinkers x .300%
=25.5 more wins, or about 50-52 more points.
That would get us to roughly 105 points.
Feels like an MLB budget with a shaky pitching staff.

For the record, we are 20-0-0 this season with a SV% of 0.910 or above.
Also, considering that we currently have a 109 point pace with Murray and a 128 point pace with Samsonov, it's a bit odd to project us at a 95-99 point pace moving forward.

 

[LeafChief]

For the record, we are 20-0-0 this season with a SV% of 0.910 or above.
Also, considering that we currently have a 109 point pace with Murray and a 128 point pace with Samsonov, it's a bit odd to project us at a 95-99 point pace moving forward.

"Pretty good forecasting model"

 

[ACC1224]

Sammy is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games now.

Which is great but he’s 1-1 in his last two.
Played well last night and brutal the game before. Here’s to hoping he continues last nights play.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Which is great but he’s 1-1 in his last two.
Played well last night and brutal the game before. Here’s to hoping he continues last nights play.

Actually he's 1-0-1 which is 3 of 4 possible points and the loss was in a shootout, so that also comes with a grain of salt.

 

[Stephen]

For the record, we are 20-0-0 this season with a SV% of 0.910 or above.
Also, considering that we currently have a 109 point pace with Murray and a 128 point pace with Samsonov, it's a bit odd to project us at a 95-99 point pace moving forward.

Okay, let me do your homework for you:

Let's say we get .910 sv% in 50% of the remaining 42 games at a winning percentage of 1.000. = 21 wins, 42 points.

If you take out the 20-0-0 record from the Leafs current record of 24-9-7, you're left with a record of 4-9-7. That's a percentage of .200 regulation wins, .450 regulation losses and .350 OT/SO losses.

Let's say we get below .910 sv% in 50% of the remaining 42 games at a winning percentage following the exact same Leaf trends above. The 21 game record would result in 4.2 wins and 7.3 ties, working out to 15.7 points.

55+42+15.7 works out to 112.7 points.

I don't think we're going to undefeated with a perfect winning percentage in 41 games. I don't think we're going to have a .200 winning percentage when we get below .910 goaltending. 113 points would be the high side and 105 points will probably be more realistic if we have any slumps here and there. Not that odd at all.

 

[ACC1224]

Actually he's 1-0-1 which is 3 of 4 possible points and the loss was in a shootout, so that also comes with a grain of salt.

yes he was fortunate enough that the St Louis goalie was equally as brutal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Okay, let me do your homework for you:

But I just did the homework for you, after you didn't do it, and the answer is very clear. When you have a team that is on pace for 113 points, after seasons of 115 and 113 points, and you're projecting using goalies that the team currently has 109 and 128 point paces with, it's not really justified to project a 95-99 point pace moving forward for no reason.

Let's say we get .910 sv% in 50% of the remaining 42 games at a winning percentage of 1.000. = 21 wins, 42 points.
If you take out the 20-0-0 record from the Leafs current record of 24-9-7, you're left with a record of 4-9-7. That's a percentage of .200 regulation wins, .450 regulation losses and .350 OT/SO losses.
Let's say we get below .910 sv% in 50% of the remaining 42 games at a winning percentage following the exact same Leaf trends above. The 21 game record would result in 4.2 wins and 7.3 ties, working out to 15.7 points.
55+42+15.7 works out to 112.7 points.

Or... alternatively... you could just look up our current point pace and get the same result.

I don't think we're going to undefeated with a perfect winning percentage in 41 games. I don't think we're going to have a .200 winning percentage when we get below .910 goaltending. 113 points would be the high side and 105 points will probably be more realistic if we have any slumps here and there.

We may not go undefeated, but a ridiculously good record with average or better goaltending is not unusual, given the quality of our team. Last year we went 33-1-1 with a SV% of 0.915 or higher, 34-2-3 with a SV% of 0.910 or higher, and 39-2-4 with a SV% of 0.900 or higher. Our sub 0.910 record is more likely to rise more than our above-0.910 record is likely to drop, especially since it's impacted by Kallgren and a pretty one-sided OT/SO record. We've already had "slumps here and there", and we're still on a 113 point pace. Maybe the team is actually just really good?

 

[Stephen]

But I just did the homework for you, after you didn't do it, and the answer is very clear. When you have a team that is on pace for 113 points, after seasons of 115 and 113 points, and you're projecting using goalies that the team currently has 109 and 128 point paces with, it's not really justified to project a 95-99 point pace moving forward for no reason.

Or... alternatively... you could just look up our current point pace and get the same result.

We may not go undefeated, but a ridiculously good record with average or better goaltending is not unusual, given the quality of our team. Last year we went 33-1-1 with a SV% of 0.915 or higher, 34-2-3 with a SV% of 0.910 or higher, and 39-2-4 with a SV% of 0.900 or higher. Our sub 0.910 record is more likely to rise more than our above-0.910 record is likely to drop, especially since it's impacted by Kallgren and a pretty one-sided OT/SO record. We've already had "slumps here and there", and we're still on a 113 point pace. Maybe the team is actually just really good?

The difference between a 113 and 105 point season isn't really that much other than to say with unpredictable up and down goaltending either side of league average they're still basically going to get to where they need to, and what we reasonably need budget out of Murray and Samsonov in terms of quality/poor starts.

 

[Stephen]

yes he was fortunate enough that the St Louis goalie was equally as brutal.

Binnington might be the most histrionic goalie in the game today.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The difference between a 113 and 105 point season isn't really that much other than to say with unpredictable up and down goaltending either side of league average they're still basically going to get to where they need to, and what we reasonably need budget out of Murray and Samsonov in terms of quality/poor starts.

The difference between 113 points and 105 points is probably the difference between home ice. You were doing projections. I thought you'd want your projections to be more accurate.

 

[Stephen]

The difference between 113 points and 105 points is probably the difference between home ice. You were doing projections. I thought you'd want your projections to be more accurate.

I doubt you're putting our money down on the 20-0-0 record when receiving .910 goaltending to continue over a full season, so I think a range of 105-113 points is a good enough ballpark for me. When looking for accuracy you're not the first source I go to, but thanks for the input.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I doubt you're putting our money down on the 20-0-0 record when receiving .910 goaltending to continue over a full season, so I think a range of 105-113 points is a good enough ballpark for me. When looking for accuracy you're not the first source I go to, but thanks for the input.

I'd certainly feel better putting money down on us ending closer to 113 points than 105 points, since everything points to that.
But also, it wasn't a range of 105-113 points to start with. It was just 105 points, which projected us at a 95-99 point pace the rest of the season, after putting up a 113-115 point pace for the past 2 and a half years. And you didn't give any justification for this, other than making random assumptions about how our goalies would perform, and then making random assumptions about the point percentage each would correspond with - all of which fell below how we've actually performed relative to that level of goalie performance.
So you're welcome for improving your projection, even if you refuse to acknowledge it. Sounds like you should be going to me - one of the most accurate sources on here - more often.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

yes he was fortunate enough that the St Louis goalie was equally as brutal.

Sounds like he gave us a chance to win and definitely extended the game with some big saves in the overtime. Just what we need.

I get that hes not some .930 1.99 hero goalie and hes especially not paid like one. Why are people whining about a goalie making 1.8 million, whos done nothing but win since he got here, just because he had a few bad games in a row.

He is 25, has shown us he can be a brilliant goalie for stretches and is under team control as an RFA after this season, youd think people would cry less about getting him for free, but here we are.

12-3-1 .916 and 2.29 gaa with 2 shutouts in 16 games, again for 1.8 million.

 

[ULF_55]

Next few games are going to be interesting.

If the goalies and team get back on track we'll have some confidence heading the the final-season.

 

[ACC1224]

Sounds like he gave us a chance to win and definitely extended the game with some big saves in the overtime. Just what we need.

I get that hes not some .930 1.99 hero goalie and hes especially not paid like one. Why are people whining about a goalie making 1.8 million, whos done nothing but win since he got here, just because he had a few bad games in a row.

He is 25, has shown us he can be a brilliant goalie for stretches and is under team control as an RFA after this season, youd think people would cry less about getting him for free, but here we are.

12-3-1 .916 and 2.29 gaa with 2 shutouts in 16 games, again for 1.8 million.

I like Samsonov but come on, he didn’t give them a chance to win Tuesday. He did last night though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I like Samsonov but come on, he didn’t give them a chance to win Tuesday.

We very literally had a chance to win until the final shot in the NHL's gimmick.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I like Samsonov but come on, he didn’t give them a chance to win Tuesday. He did last night though.

On Tuesday he failed to give them one save in the 3rd round of the shootout which would have won the game. However last night he did make a clutch save after Marner made it a 1-1 game.

 

[ACC1224]

On Tuesday he failed to give them one save in the 3rd round of the shootout which would have won the game. However last night he did make a clutch save after Marner made it a 1-1 game.

Yes I mentioned he gave them a chance to win last night and they did. He failed to give them many saves over the 3 periods Tuesday which cost them the game

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yes I mentioned he gave them a chance to win last night and they did. He failed to give them many saves over the 3 periods Tuesday which cost them the game

Maybe these are just as bad but what do you think was worse? Allowing the shorthanded goal on a shot he should have stopped, or not making just one more save in the shooutout?

If the shorthanded goal never gets scored maybe the Leafs win in regulation and the game never gets to overtime. If all the others goals still happened like we saw.