Combined Goalie Discussion Thread - PART TWO!

[DueDiligence]

Last year, our goalies saved 21.0 goals less than expected.
This year, our goalies have saved 16.8 goals more than expected.

Last year, our starting goalie was -2.3 GSAx on the season, and had been in a nosedive since January.
This year, our starting goalie is +12.5 GSAx on the season, and has remained pretty consistent throughout the year.

Last year, our backup goalie was -11.6 GSAx on the season. This year, our backup goalie is a two-time cup winner who is at +2.3 GSAx on the season.

We're in a vastly better position by any objective measure.

Samsonov has a 15.5 GSAx and has played great this year. Murray has a GSAx of 1.0 which is poor considering he had one game where he was a plus 5 GSAx.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think dubas really thought Murray would be the guy ever since the off season but as the season has played out that has clearly blown up in his face.

If he's still around in the off season, it's likely we'll be seeing dubas trying to dump Murray.

Crazy how injury prone this guy is.

Samsonov had 3 years under his belt before coming here and during that time, his numbers weren't great, however they were better than Murray's numbers during those same three years. Samsonov was also highly touted at one point so high pedigree in that regard whereas Murray had previous playoff successes as we all know but at the same time, that was many years ago and since then he hasn't been great. So bottom line, both had the potential to be very good, but both had question marks attached. With all that context, I'm pretty sure Dubas thought Murray had potential to be "the guy", but also thought the same about Sammy.

I believe Woll has to be with the Leafs next season or go on waivers. Sammy has outplayed Murray and Woll has looked great so unless something drastically changes, it's Woll and Sammy next season. Murray will either be dumped, or if dumping him is too costly they could start the season with 3 goalies, and hope Murray plays well and can be dumped at some point during the season without it costing too much.

Hopefully Murray can play soon, it's not impossible that ups his value before the season is over.

 

[ToneDog]

Samsonov had 3 years under his belt before coming here and during that time, his numbers weren't great, however they were better than Murray's numbers during those same three years. Samsonov was also highly touted at one point so high pedigree in that regard whereas Murray had previous playoff successes as we all know but at the same time, that was many years ago and since then he hasn't been great. So bottom line, both had the potential to be very good, but both had question marks attached. With all that context, I'm pretty sure Dubas thought Murray had potential to be "the guy", but also thought the same about Sammy.

I believe Woll has to be with the Leafs next season or go on waivers. Sammy has outplayed Murray and Woll has looked great so unless something drastically changes, it's Woll and Sammy next season. Murray will either be dumped, or if dumping him is too costly they could start the season with 3 goalies, and hope Murray plays well and can be dumped at some point during the season without it costing too much.

Hopefully Murray can play soon, it's not impossible that ups his value before the season is over.

Both Caps' goalies were available before July 1st. Dubas traded for Murray and at a 4.7m cap hit tells me Murray was plan A. Toronto was a perfect landing ground for Sammy to prove himself. Luckily plan B is working.

As for Murray upping his value. He came with a rep of being injury prone and has been now injured 3 times ?? I can't see another GM rolling the dice on him.

 

[ACC1224]

Both Caps' goalies were available before July 1st. Dubas traded for Murray and at a 4.7m cap hit tells me Murray was plan A. Toronto was a perfect landing ground for Sammy to prove himself. Luckily plan B is working.

That's always seemed pretty obvious that Murray was brought here in hopes of getting them over the playoff hump.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Both Caps' goalies were available before July 1st. Dubas traded for Murray and at a 4.7m cap hit tells me Murray was plan A. Toronto was a perfect landing ground for Sammy to prove himself. Luckily plan B is working.

Who you or anyone else thought was plan A is besides the point. There was more than one guy who had the potential to be "the guy", both get chances to play and then you see who emerges as "the guy" but you don't decide who "the guy" is before the season even starts because that would be insane.

There are at least a couple of guys who as recently as 10 days ago were saying Murray would be our starter in the playoffs despite being outplayed by Sammy all season, just bizarre.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think dubas really thought Murray would be the guy ever since the off season but as the season has played out that has clearly blown up in his face.

If he's still around in the off season, it's likely we'll be seeing dubas trying to dump Murray.

Crazy how injury prone this guy is.

The Leafs went from 25th in goals against above expected to 10th. Pretty tough to say the goaltending situation has blown up in his face, you can see that it's worked out pretty well right?

Also, any goalie could be injured from having their legs suddenly taken out from under them

 

[Gary Nylund]

That's always seemed pretty obvious that Murray was brought here in hopes of getting them over the playoff hump.

Thank you captain obvious.

Newsflash - everyone on the team was brought here in the hopes of getting them over the playoff hump. That includes everyone from Murray and Samsonov and ROR to Lafferty and Schenn and everyone else on the team.

 

[Peasy]

The Leafs went from 25th in goals against above expected to 10th. Pretty tough to say the goaltending situation has blown up in his face, you can see that it's worked out pretty well right?

Also, any goalie could be injured from having their legs suddenly taken out from under them

When did I say the goaltending situation has blown up in their face? I said the Murray acquisition has, and hes lucky there was suddenly a back up option to gamble on (Samsonov, again the Leafs targeted Murray well in advanced of knowing Samsonov would become a UFA. If that never happens, who knows how the season plays out). If you think the Murray acquisition has worked out just as planned then all the power to you, I won't try and change your mind. I personally think its been a mess, and will still have to be dealt with in the off season.

 

[ToneDog]

Who you or anyone else thought was plan A is besides the point. There was more than one guy who had the potential to be "the guy", both get chances to play and then you see who emerges as "the guy" but you don't decide who "the guy" is before the season even starts because that would be insane.

There are at least a couple of guys who as recently as 10 days ago were saying Murray would be our starter in the playoffs despite being outplayed by Sammy all season, just bizarre.

Murray was clearly plan A going into the season. Of course their in season play should dictate who starts game 1 but if you believe the insiders, Murray was still their preferred game #1 starter. Today I think the Leafs can put those thoughts to rest cause Murray is pretty much done if he is concussed.

 

[ToneDog]

When did I say the goaltending situation has blown up in their face? I said the Murray acquisition has, and hes lucky there was suddenly a back up option to gamble on (Samsonov, again the Leafs targeted Murray well in advanced of knowing Samsonov would become a UFA. If that never happens, who knows how the season plays out). If you think the Murray acquisition has worked out just as planned then all the power to you, I won't try and change your mind. I personally think its been a mess, and will still have to be dealt with in the off season.

Agreed. He may have played his last game as a Leaf. He should be LTIRed, put on waivers, sent to the Marlies or bought out and the savings should go to resign Sammy if he does not fold like a suitcase against Tampa.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Samsonov has a 15.5 GSAx and has played great this year. Murray has a GSAx of 1.0 which is poor considering he had one game where he was a plus 5 GSAx.

Fun fact: Murray is 3rd on our team in GSAx this year and still provided more positive impact to our team than every single one of our goalies last year.
Sounds like something to be happy about.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Murray was clearly plan A going into the season. Of course their in season play should dictate who starts game 1 but if you believe the insiders, Murray was still their preferred game #1 starter. Today I think the Leafs can put those thoughts to rest cause Murray is pretty much done if he is concussed.

I don't follow "insiders" but I'm tempted to ask - who are these insiders you're referring to and when and why were they preferring Murray?

TBH I don't really care though because this seems like a really dumb thing to say and only justifies me not wasting my time listening to "insiders". If one goalie plays well and the other doesn't, my preferred starter is the guy who's playing well and anything else is just overthinking things.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

When did I say the goaltending situation has blown up in their face? I said the Murray acquisition has, and hes lucky there was suddenly a back up option to gamble on (Samsonov, again the Leafs targeted Murray well in advanced of knowing Samsonov would become a UFA. If that never happens, who knows how the season plays out). If you think the Murray acquisition has worked out just as planned then all the power to you, I won't try and change your mind. I personally think its been a mess, and will still have to be dealt with in the off season.

when you entered a combined goalie discussion thread to say that their strategy of acquiring Murray to be the guy blew up in their face. I apologize if it's not what you meant, but it really did seem like you were talking about their goaltending situation being a disaster.

As far as Murray goes, I think he's been a pretty big flop. He's talented enough and has interesting pedigree, but he has too many shortcomings. But I do think it's a bit disingenuous to blame him for Murray and give him zero credit for Samsonov and moving on from Campbell/Mrazek and improving the goalies by a pretty substantial amount over last year. Murray himself is a pretty insignificant part of the overall discussion, he's just been a better version of Mrazek to me

 

[ToneDog]

I don't follow "insiders" but I'm tempted to ask - who are these insiders you're referring to and when and why were they preferring Murray?

TBH I don't really care though because this seems like a really dumb thing to say and only justifies me not wasting my time listening to "insiders". If one goalie plays well and the other doesn't, my preferred starter is the guy who's playing well and anything else is just overthinking things.

No need to list insiders given what you think of them. Logic does say Sammy should start game #1 but only Dubas can tell you who he wanted starting game #1. We won't find out now.

 

[ACC1224]

No need to list insiders given what you think of them. Logic does say Sammy should start game #1 but only Dubas can tell you who he wanted starting game #1. We won't find out now.

It really wouldn't have been a surprise had Murray started, like you say, we'll never know now.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Woll needs to get a few games here to keep Sammy fresh.

Murray is not in the picture at all imo

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Murray just can't stay healthy .. last night was huge bad luck but he is hurt more then he plays .. oh well at least we will get Woll up again .. get him in a few games so he can get his NHL timing on track .. Sammy will do what Sammy always does and give up 5 or 6 in game 1 and then Woll comes in to take us to round 2

 

[Peasy]

when you entered a combined goalie discussion thread to say that their strategy of acquiring Murray to be the guy blew up in their face. I apologize if it's not what you meant, but it really did seem like you were talking about their goaltending situation being a disaster.

As far as Murray goes, I think he's been a pretty big flop. He's talented enough and has interesting pedigree, but he has too many shortcomings. But I do think it's a bit disingenuous to blame him for Murray and give him zero credit for Samsonov and moving on from Campbell/Mrazek and improving the goalies by a pretty substantial amount over last year. Murray himself is a pretty insignificant part of the overall discussion, he's just been a better version of Mrazek to me

During the offseason I was fine with what they did with the goaltending. In no way did I want Campbell back at all (I have a long history of posts warning Oiler fans of how bad Campbell actually is). I know there werent that many options out there to begin with, and its great that Samsonov has worked out for us. I was willing to see how Murray could perform this year, but after seeing how its played out, its difficult to look at Murray not as a negative, and another hurdle they will have to deal with in the off season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No need to list insiders given what you think of them. Logic does say Sammy should start game #1 but only Dubas can tell you who he wanted starting game #1. We won't find out now.

No need to list insiders - agreed.

I'm pretty sure Dubas was hoping that at least one goalie would play well enough to look like he could carry the load in the playoffs. Samsonov has done just that and I doubt Dubas cares that it was Samsonov, not Murray who has emerged as "the guy".

 

[All Mod Cons]

It's cray cray when you consider the lengths people went to, to defend the Campbell and Mrazek acquisitions last year. All sort of random, irrelevant stats were being pulled out of the hat.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's cray cray when you consider the lengths people went to, to defend the Campbell and Mrazek acquisitions last year.

They didn't acquire Campbell last year. He was on the team the year prior and performed well.

 

[Gary Nylund]

when you entered a combined goalie discussion thread to say that their strategy of acquiring Murray to be the guy blew up in their face. I apologize if it's not what you meant, but it really did seem like you were talking about their goaltending situation being a disaster.

As far as Murray goes, I think he's been a pretty big flop. He's talented enough and has interesting pedigree, but he has too many shortcomings. But I do think it's a bit disingenuous to blame him for Murray and give him zero credit for Samsonov and moving on from Campbell/Mrazek and improving the goalies by a pretty substantial amount over last year. Murray himself is a pretty insignificant part of the overall discussion, he's just been a better version of Mrazek to me

Murray's been a big tease. He hasn't played that badly even (way better than Mrazek for starters) but he's been so up and down that he's either really good or he's really bad and then of course he keeps getting hurt so in the end, he's not someone you can count on. But still, when he's on he's so good, it's not out of the question that we'll turn to him at some point in the playoffs. That's assuming he's not hurt too bad of course, se'll see.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

No need to list insiders - agreed.

I'm pretty sure Dubas was hoping that at least one goalie would play well enough to look like he could carry the load in the playoffs. Samsonov has done just that and I doubt Dubas cares that it was Samsonov, not Murray who has emerged as "the guy".

Has Sammy though? He'll play one, maybe 2 good games then he's off again. Is it lack of endurance? I don't know. I just have no confidence that he can carry the team in the playoffs. Ofcourse Murray is another story.

A.Niemi, JGibson, C.Ward, F.Potvin, J.Binnington etc.
What do they all have in common?
Could Leafs catch lightning in a bottle with their rookie? Just saying.

Again I dont see it happening. Yeah right now it looks like Sammy will start off the playoffs.

 

[ToneDog]

It really wouldn't have been a surprise had Murray started, like you say, we'll never know now.

MIke Johnson talking to Al's Bros on Leaf Lunch just said as much as Leafs wanted Murray to start game #1, that ship has sailed. Nobody is making this sh1t up. Murray has two SC rings, the experience and I think Sammy has 1 playoff win. Why would it not make sense that the Leafs wanted/hoped Murray could start game #1 ??

 

[ToneDog]

Murray just can't stay healthy .. last night was huge bad luck but he is hurt more then he plays .. oh well at least we will get Woll up again .. get him in a few games so he can get his NHL timing on track .. Sammy will do what Sammy always does and give up 5 or 6 in game 1 and then Woll comes in to take us to round 2

You've been claiming Woll is the answer for quite some time. I'd be concerned if he became our #1 vs Tampa. Hope you are right.