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Combined Goalie Discussion Thread - PART TWO!

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theathletic.com

LeBrun: Grading the NHL’s best and worst offseason goalie moves

Who were the biggest hits, misses, surprises and flops from last offseason's goalie carousel?
theathletic.com theathletic.com


Looks like Lebrun ranks our goalie acquisitions higher than most of the competitions goalie pickups.

Alexandar Georgiev, Avalanche - Grade: A-plus
Filip Gustavsson, Wild - Grade: A
Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, Maple Leafs - Grade: B-plus
Vitek Vanecek, Devils - Grade: B
Darcy Kuemper, Capitals - Grade: B
Ville Husso, Red Wings - Grade: C
Cam Talbot, Senators - Grade: C-minus
Jack Campbell, Oilers - Grade: F
 
crump said:
Goalie deployment and last 9 games
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Wed, 3/29[/TD]
[TD]vsFLAFLA[/TD]
[TD]7:30 PM[/TD]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, 4/1[/TD]
[TD]@OTTOTT[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sun, 4/2[/TD]
[TD]vsDETDET[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tue, 4/4[/TD]
[TD]vsCBJCBJ[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, 4/6[/TD]
[TD]@BOSBOS[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, 4/8[/TD]
[TD]vsMTLMTL[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mon, 4/10[/TD]
[TD]@FLAFLA[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tue, 4/11[/TD]
[TD]@TBTB[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, 4/13[/TD]
[TD]@NYRNYR[/TD]
[TD]7:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
IMO it’s Samsonov net to lose. Doesn’t mean you overplay him down the stretch. This deployment gives him games against potential playoff opponents and both games to end the season in order to get tuned up and in an every two night routine. Playoffs start the 17th so he has a few days to rest.

Obviously you adjust if injuries happen.
Click to expand...

Unless home ice is still on the line I keep Sammy away from Tampa till game 1. Throw Murray at them.
 
Leafs goaltending last year 2021-22

1680186022548.png


Leafs current goaltending 2022-23 in progress

1680185965662.png


Combined sorted by Games played , Wins and SV%

1680186723454.png


So are we better or worse or about the same heading into the playoffs this year?
 
Mess said:
Leafs goaltending last year 2021-22

View attachment 678487

Leafs current goaltending 2022-23 in progress

View attachment 678485

Combined sorted by Games played , Wins and SV%

View attachment 678488

So are we better or worse or about the same heading into the playoffs this year?
Click to expand...
Jack Campbell first 25 games last season: .938 sv%
Jack Campbell last 24 games last season: .888 sv%
2021-2022 league average: .902 sv%

Ilya Samsonov first 18 games: .916 sv%
Ilya Samsonov last 19 games: .911 sv%
2022-2023 league average: .899 sv%

Contrary to what you may think, consistency and how you play going into the playoffs also matters. I'm taking the guy who gives a consistently solid performance over a guy who wildly goes from hottest in the league to worst in the league any day. Not to mention that Samsonov has given a consistent and better performance in a higher scoring season with worse goaltending across the league. And when you factor in how Campbell has been this season, this is not even a discussion.
 
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Mess said:
Leafs goaltending last year 2021-22

View attachment 678487

Leafs current goaltending 2022-23 in progress

View attachment 678485

Combined sorted by Games played , Wins and SV%

View attachment 678488

So are we better or worse or about the same heading into the playoffs this year?
Click to expand...
Campbell vs Samy is deceptive as Campbell was in that second half free fall but banged out 4 solid starts to finish the season and nudge his numbers up. As it turned out that finish was an aberration and not indicative of what he would bring to the post season. Still a dented can and second half Samsonov is clearly better than second half Campbell. Murray is a bit of disappointment but miles ahead of Mrazek and this year Woll is better than last year's. Campbell's insane first half brought no value to the playoffs. Samy or Murray would both be better options than Jack after he lost his mojo..
 
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Don't see the point of comparing the Leaf goalies to other goalies, it's not like they are going anywhere.

Compare them to each other is fair, anything else is silly, IMO.
 
1specter said:
Jack Campbell first 25 games last season: .938 sv%
Jack Campbell last 24 games last season: .888 sv%
2021-2022 league average: .902 sv%

Ilya Samsonov first 18 games: .916 sv%
Ilya Samsonov last 19 games: .911 sv%
2022-2023 league average: .899 sv%

Contrary to what you may think, consistency and how you play going into the playoffs also matters. I'm taking the guy who gives a consistently solid performance over a guy who wildly goes from hottest in the league to worst in the league any day. Not to mention that Samsonov has given a consistent and better performance in a higher scoring season with worse goaltending across the league. And when you factor in how Campbell has been this season, this is not even a discussion.
Click to expand...
Campbell this year is irrelevant when it comes to Leafs beating TB and winning a series last year or this year & we already know Campbell was not good enough in 7 games to achieve it. :wg:

Consistency or Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde ???

Samsonov at Home vs Road.

1680190452441.png


Sammy in 22 games at home 18 wins and .927 sv%. vs Sammy on road 14 games 6-7-1 record and .892 sv%. Only his combined sv% of .913 is where you get consistency based on averaging, otherwise he is wildly inconsistent based on where the game is played.

Leafs appear to need home ice and last change on personnel to insulate Sammy, when he is in net and without that the opposition seems to get the best of him.

Matt Murray at Home vs Road.

1680191344988.png


Murray is .880 sv% at home but .915 sv% on the road. Where Murray has the opposite problem of being nearly unplayable at home but best chance on the road.

Therefore playing Sammy on the road or Murray at home in the series based on these stats would be the equivalent of having to have played Mrazek from last year at > 900 sv%.

Are Leafs going to play Samsonov in Toronto and Murray in Tampa Bay because Analytics which is what this management team relies heavily on, will require BOTH Leafs goals combined to beat Vasilevskiy and TB this year?
 
Last edited:
Mess said:
So are we better or worse or about the same heading into the playoffs this year?
Click to expand...
Last year, our goalies saved 21.0 goals less than expected.
This year, our goalies have saved 16.8 goals more than expected.

Last year, our starting goalie was -2.3 GSAx on the season, and had been in a nosedive since January.
This year, our starting goalie is +12.5 GSAx on the season, and has remained pretty consistent throughout the year.

Last year, our backup goalie was -11.6 GSAx on the season. This year, our backup goalie is a two-time cup winner who is at +2.3 GSAx on the season.

We're in a vastly better position by any objective measure.
 
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Mess said:
Are Leafs going to play Samsonov in Toronto and Murray in Tampa Bay because Analytics which is what this management team relies heavily on, will require BOTH Leafs goals combined to beat Vasilevskiy and TB this year?
Click to expand...
that's an interesting theory, but to me this would be overcoaching 100%. Same as shaking up line combinations just for the sake of doing it.

Personally i would not be in favor of it and I think Samsonov deserves starting goalie duty regardless of where the game is played.
 
ACC1224 said:
Don't see the point of comparing the Leaf goalies to other goalies, it's not like they are going anywhere.

Compare them to each other is fair, anything else is silly, IMO.
Click to expand...
People (including you) compare Marner, Matthews and whoever else to players on other teams every day, why would it be any different with goalies?

I'd prefer it if we spent less time comparing our players to each other myself, I've had enough of player A vs player B threads to last me a lifetime.

Mess said:
Murray is .880 sv% at home but .915 sv% on the road. Where Murray has the opposite problem of being nearly unplayable at home but best chance on the road.

Therefore playing Sammy on the road or Murray at home in the series based on these stats would be the equivalent of having to have played Mrazek from last year at > 900 sv%.

Are Leafs going to play Samsonov in Toronto and Murray in Tampa Bay because Analytics which is what this management team relies heavily on, will require BOTH Leafs goals combined to beat Vasilevskiy and TB this year?
Click to expand...
Interesting question IMO!

fancy lad said:
that's an interesting theory, but to me this would be overcoaching 100%. Same as shaking up line combinations just for the sake of doing it.

Personally i would not be in favor of it and I think Samsonov deserves starting goalie duty regardless of where the game is played.
Click to expand...
It wouldn't be "just for the sake of doing it", it would be because the stats suggest it's worth doing. Not sure if it makes sense or not, maybe it's just a random fluctuation I have no idea but if it was up to me I'd get my analytics team to look into it a bit deeper.
 
fancy lad said:
that's an interesting theory, but to me this would be overcoaching 100%. Same as shaking up line combinations just for the sake of doing it.

Personally i would not be in favor of it and I think Samsonov deserves starting goalie duty regardless of where the game is played.
Click to expand...
You know its going to happen. :wg:

Leafs are going to play 82 to secure home ice advantage and then Sammy like starts and should he lose either of the first 2 games in TO then TB has now got home ice advantage in the series and Leafs are going to start second guessing which goalie to play and as I pointed out home and away win and save % is vastly different for each goalie based on the regular season.
 
Leafs really blew it with goaltending eh?

www.espn.com

Toronto out and Detroit in? Teams most likely to rise and fall in the playoff race

We identify the most vulnerable candidates in each division -- plus the non-playoff teams from last season that are ready to take their place.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Over the past three seasons, Samsonov and Murray have combined for 7.4 goals saved above average. For comparison's sake, Boston netminders Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark combined for 45.7 goals saved above average in that span. Even last season's Leafs battery of Campbell and Petr Mrazekcombined for 31.2.

Toronto is a team with Stanley Cup aspirations that is playing a hunch in goal. Even with Florida coming back to the pack and Boston nearing the closure of its contention window, that goaltending might have the Leafs on the shakiest ground. They've shown they can win despite their goaltending. But can they win despite this goaltending?
Click to expand...

Yes Greg, they can.
 
I was gonna say they should split in the playoffs but Murray can't be trusted at this point.

If your goalie has to come in cold bc of injuries, you are giving the opponent a huge advantage.
 
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1specter said:
Jack Campbell first 25 games last season: .938 sv%
Jack Campbell last 24 games last season: .888 sv%
2021-2022 league average: .902 sv%

Ilya Samsonov first 18 games: .916 sv%
Ilya Samsonov last 19 games: .911 sv%
2022-2023 league average: .899 sv%

Contrary to what you may think, consistency and how you play going into the playoffs also matters. I'm taking the guy who gives a consistently solid performance over a guy who wildly goes from hottest in the league to worst in the league any day. Not to mention that Samsonov has given a consistent and better performance in a higher scoring season with worse goaltending across the league. And when you factor in how Campbell has been this season, this is not even a discussion.
Click to expand...
Perfect answer.

I quite frankly could give a shit less about what the stats say. Watch Campbell last year (and this year really) then watch Samsonov. Who would you be more comfortable with? All of a sudden it looks like a dumb question. Campbell became an unmitigated disaster in the last quarter of last year.
 
At least Campbell looked like he cared when he sucked (edit - not look like, he genuinely wanted us to experience great things). Murray looks like he couldn't care less if we have success or not. Robidas island asap and good riddance.
 
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