Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[surixon]

But what source do they have?

Its not that I don't believe it. I just think there is some assuming going on.

Very possible but it's all we have to go on for an actual number.

It wouldn't surprise me if it's all a giant smokescreen and they shock everyone with a long term deal.

 

[jamiebez]

Interesting article on Perfetti's comparables:

What should RFA Cole Perfetti's next contract look like?

Winnipeg Jets training camp has started, but 22-year-old Cole Perfetti is still an RFA and not in attendance. What's the hold up? Jacob Stoller looks at some comparable contracts to make sense of what Perfetti's next deal might look like.

www.sportsnet.ca

Looks like Pinto is the real outlier here on a bridge deal. Kyrou, Bratt and Necas all had comparable numbers to Perfetti and signed bridge deals for between $2.9M and $3.2M (I adjusted to use percentage of cap instead of the actual dollars since they are older deals).

Add in the reporting from Elliotte Friedman that the Jets are rejecting Pinto as a comparable and you can see why this isn't done yet.

 

[surixon]

Interesting article on Perfetti's comparables:

What should RFA Cole Perfetti's next contract look like?

Winnipeg Jets training camp has started, but 22-year-old Cole Perfetti is still an RFA and not in attendance. What's the hold up? Jacob Stoller looks at some comparable contracts to make sense of what Perfetti's next deal might look like.

www.sportsnet.ca

Looks like Pinto is the real outlier here on a bridge deal. Kyrou, Bratt and Necas all had comparable numbers to Perfetti and signed bridge deals for between $2.9M and $3.2M (I adjusted to use percentage of cap instead of the actual dollars since they are older deals).

Add in the reporting from Elliotte Friedman that the Jets are rejecting Pinto as a comparable and you can see why this isn't done yet.

Those other bridge deals were inked years ago while the cap was flat. We've had roughly 10% worth of contract inflation since then. The equivalent deals using today's cap would be 3.2 million to 3.5 million which isnt that far off the Pinto deal. I expect better stuff from a credible sportscaster.

 

[Buffdog]

That is incorrect. The two combos he played with the most during his slump in the top 6 sported a 60 GF% (Him with Monohan and Ehlers) and a 50 XGF (0 gf vs 0 ga) with Monohan and Vilardi. I think it would have been impossible for him to been on the ice with whatever half line combos he played with for the 0 GF and 13 GA he would have needed to be at a 17% GF.

He was a 38 GF% over that slump in the top 6. Which just so happens to not be all that different then what our top line posted for the entire year. It amounted to being on the ice for a whopping 2 more goals scored against then for which isn't bad considering they were rocking a very low on ice shooting percentage.

At the end of the day, here's the most important stat:

In the 9 games prior to the demotion (sample size chosen because rhat how many games he got after the demotion but before being scratched), the Jets were 4-4-1. After the demotion they were 6-3-0

It appears that the move was best for the team

 

[jamiebez]

Those other bridge deals were inked years ago while the cap was flat. We've had over 10% of contract inflation since then. The equivalent deals using today's cap would be 3.3 million to 3.6 million which isnt that far off the Pinto deal. I expect better stuff from a credible sportscaster.

No, I did the math by percentage of cap:

Kyrou's $2.8M in 2021-22 ($81.5M cap) would be $3.02M now
Bratt's $2.75M in 2020-21 ($81.5M cap) would be $2.96M now
Necas' $3M in 2022-23 ($82.5M cap) would be $3.2M now

Even if you give him Necas' deal, and build in a 5% escalation between years 1 and 2 to account for a rising cap, he'd be at $3.36M.

Pinto's an outlier by $500k. Can see why the Jets don't like that as a comp.

 

[surixon]

No, I did the math by percentage of cap:

Kyrou's $2.8M in 2021-22 ($81.5M cap) would be $3.02M now
Bratt's $2.75M in 2020-21 ($81.5M cap) would be $2.96M now
Necas' $3M in 2022-23 ($82.5M cap) would be $3.2M now

Even if you give him Necas' deal, and build in a 5% escalation between years 1 and 2 to account for a rising cap, he'd be at $3.36M.

Pinto's an outlier by $500k. Can see why the Jets don't like that as a comp.

Sure but the market also shifts. I think young players now are getting more then they were then. Either way it shouldn't be hard to split difference and come in at 3.4 to 3.5 million.

 

[surixon]

At the end of the day, here's the most important stat:

In the 9 games prior to the demotion (sample size chosen because rhat how many games he got after the demotion but before being scratched), the Jets were 4-4-1. After the demotion they were 6-3-0

It appears that the move was best for the team

I mean if you want to play that game the team was 4 and 7 without him in the lineup. Seems like Bones scratching him was detrimental to the team.

 

[TS Quint]

Interesting article on Perfetti's comparables:

What should RFA Cole Perfetti's next contract look like?

Winnipeg Jets training camp has started, but 22-year-old Cole Perfetti is still an RFA and not in attendance. What's the hold up? Jacob Stoller looks at some comparable contracts to make sense of what Perfetti's next deal might look like.

www.sportsnet.ca

Looks like Pinto is the real outlier here on a bridge deal. Kyrou, Bratt and Necas all had comparable numbers to Perfetti and signed bridge deals for between $2.9M and $3.2M (I adjusted to use percentage of cap instead of the actual dollars since they are older deals).

Add in the reporting from Elliotte Friedman that the Jets are rejecting Pinto as a comparable and you can see why this isn't done yet.

How does that conversation go? “Hey Chevy, remember how Dorion was widely considered an idiot? You should be like him.”

Sure but the market also shifts. I think young players now are getting more then they were then. Either way it shouldn't be hard to split difference and come in at 3.4 to 3.5 million.

No, you don’t split the difference. That would be Maple Leafs dumb. You’re just going from bad to less bad.

 

[Buffdog]

I mean if you want to play that game the team was 4 and 7 without him in the lineup. Seems like Bones scratching him was detrimental to the team.

His last game before being sat was 3/13 (L)

They went 3-1 during his first stint in the PB (3/15, 3/17, 3/19, 3/21)

He was reinserted for a three game stretch where the Jets lost all three (3/23, 3/24, 3/26)

He sat 2 more games (both losses - 3/28, 3/30)

He played the next 4 games (all wins 4/1, 4/4, 4/6, 4/9)

Then was sat for 3 (also all wins 4/11, 4/13, 4/16)

Then he was in for the last game of the season (win 4/18)

Not sure where you got 4-7. I have it at 6-3

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Very possible but it's all we have to go on for an actual number.

It wouldn't surprise me if it's all a giant smokescreen and they shock everyone with a long term deal.

Fine with using it as your best guess. I would agree. I'm questioning your statement tht we "know" that is his ask on a bridge. We don't really know anything except that he is not signed yet. All the rest, the comps, the terms, the AAV's, etc, is speculation.

 

[surixon]

His last game before being sat was 3/13 (L)

They went 3-1 during his first stint in the PB (3/15, 3/17, 3/19, 3/21)

He was reinserted for a three game stretch where the Jets lost all three (3/23, 3/24, 3/26)

He sat 2 more games (both losses - 3/28, 3/30)

He played the next 4 games (all wins 4/1, 4/4, 4/6, 4/9)

Then was sat for 3 (also all wins 4/11, 4/13, 4/16)

Then he was in for the last game of the season (win 4/18)

Not sure where you got 4-7. I have it at 6-3

Hmm, thought he missed all 6 of that loosing streak. It seems I was mistaken.

Still the point i was trying to make was you can't learn all that much from such small samples.

Here is the much larger sample of Perfetti in the top 6 vs not top 6.

First 56 games plus the 5 he played during the last 10 games.

The team went 39-15-5 with him in the top 6. Without him in the top 6 they went 13-9-1.

I'm sure other factors played a role on things but on the whole he contributed positively in the top 6 and as we saw in the playoffs the the deadline assembled vet second line maybe wasn't what the org should have gone with.

Anyhow can we get his contract signed already.