Speculation: Claude Giroux and the Colorado Avalanche

[Ararana]

Says the guy who apparently stopped reading before getting to the end of the sentence.

I've seen plenty of Avs fans just fine with one of Barron/Helleson being the prospect. The joys of having both...

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I've seen plenty of Avs fans just fine with one of Barron/Helleson being the prospect. The joys of having both...

And every single one of them would prefer to give up Kaut, if that still gets it done.

I also think Helleson could be included if necessary (as you said, the joys of having both), I just don't think we should offer him up unless the Flyers have some leverage to make it necessary, and it doesn't appear that they will. Plus, if we're looking at that price range, I'm more interested in JT Miller, because he's signed for another year at $5.25m. If we could get $1m in retention too, that's a great replacement for Kadri.

 

[Ararana]

And every single one of them would prefer to give up Kaut, if that still gets it done.

I also think Helleson could be included if necessary (as you said, the joys of having both), I just don't think we should offer him up unless the Flyers have some leverage to make it necessary, and it doesn't appear that they will. Plus, if we're looking at that price range, I'm more interested in JT Miller, because he's signed for another year at $5.25m. If we could get $1m in retention too, that's a great replacement for Kadri.

Well of course we'd all rather give up Kaut. But Barron or Helleson are absolutely on the table.

 

[McJedi]

How did you come to that conclusion? I haven't seen anything that indicates where Giroux would limit his list if he waived.

Why would he? He’s got that full NTC to give himself leverage. He has far more reasons to pick his team and do right by himself than throw caution to the wind and let the Flyers GM have the say. Giroix doesn’t owe the Flyers the right to maximize value.

I bet his list is two or three teams max. It might be one.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Why would he? He’s got that full NTC to give himself leverage. He has far more reasons to pick his team and do right by himself than throw caution to the wind and let the Flyers GM have the say. Giroix doesn’t owe the Flyers the right to maximize value.

I bet his list is two or three teams max. It might be one.

It's a No Movement Clause. Just correcting that since I've seen it mentioned a few times.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's a No Movement Clause. Just correcting that since I've seen it mentioned a few times.

A full NTC vs a NMC is pretty close to the same. Only difference is with a NMC, you can't be sent to the AHL.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

A full NTC vs a NMC is pretty close to the same. Only difference is with a NMC, you can't be sent to the AHL.

Just pointing out that they're different. Claude literally dictates whether he's a Flyer or not, unless he's bought out.

 

[Dooble08]

That's great, but Marat is still a 2020 2nd round pick who has no plans to come to North America anytime soon. Just because he might eventually be useful if everything goes right doesn't mean he has a ton of value in a trade. Maybe Kaut doesn't have much more, but he's at least in the AHL and could compete for a spot on the Flyers NHL roster in training camp. He's just not good enough to make the Avs.

Also, JTC has another year left on his contract, and could plausibly fit on the Flyers 2nd or 3rd lines next year. He's got some value, no matter how many people want to pretend otherwise because he's slightly overpaid.

I also don't see how Barron doesn't have more value than a rental. Go find another apparently NHL ready 20 year old big RHD with top 4 skills and see what he costs. Or, even easier, what would you want for Cameron York, a smaller LHD with top 4 skills? Does a 1st round pick get it done? Or does apparently being NHL ready and a known entity raise his value?

That's the problem with the Flyers. Chuck Fletcher thinks that the team is close to competing. So he'd love to have some bottom 6 role players. But JTC, a 1st, and Kaut in no way helps the Flyers today or moving forward. I'd much rather get Marat with the thinking that he could be part of the plans in 2-3 years for the next decade. I don't see Kaut as that type of a player.

Yeah he does have more value that a generic rental. G isn't a generic rental though. So no, I don't see Barron or York having more value than Giroux. Well York is at least closer.

 

[McJedi]

It's a No Movement Clause. Just correcting that since I've seen it mentioned a few times.

Which is even more restrictive than a NTC. Giroux gets to pick where he plays if he even wants to be traded. Maybe he wants a long offseason. That’s not entirely crazy. Rest your body and mind.

flyers won’t be hitting any home runs on a Giroux deal. At best, they’ll get one good asset (1st) and a middling prospect.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Which is even more restrictive than a NTC. Giroux gets to pick where he plays if he even wants to be traded. Maybe he wants a long offseason. That’s not entirely crazy. Rest your body and mind.

flyers won’t be hitting any home runs on a Giroux deal. At best, they’ll get one good asset (1st) and a middling prospect.

I'm literally just saying his deal isn't a NTC. I'm not showing you up.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That's the problem with the Flyers. Chuck Fletcher thinks that the team is close to competing. So he'd love to have some bottom 6 role players. But JTC, a 1st, and Kaut in no way helps the Flyers today or moving forward. I'd much rather get Marat with the thinking that he could be part of the plans in 2-3 years for the next decade. I don't see Kaut as that type of a player.

Yeah he does have more value that a generic rental. G isn't a generic rental though. So no, I don't see Barron or York having more value than Giroux. Well York is at least closer.

If you're willing to take on a long shot prospect with a low chance of success like Marat, then what's the problem with someone like Stienburg who is currently PPG+ at Cornell?

I also don't see anyone having that much value in a buyers market. Giroux is easily one of the top guys who could be available, but with so much supply I can't see how there's going to be enough demand for the top rentals to drive prices up beyond the generic rental levels.

 

[McJedi]

I'm literally just saying his deal isn't a NTC. I'm not showing you up.

NMC is even better for the player than a NTC. Erik Johnson has a NMC so the Avs had to protect him for the expansion draft (he graciously waived anyway knowing he was at virtually no risk of being picked). Can’t waive and send down to the AHL a NMC player either.

giroux has a good agent and attorney. He’s very well protected via his contract. Fletcher has said Giroux decides if and where he’ll go. That’s about right.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

NMC is even better for the player than a NTC. Erik Johnson has a NMC so the Avs had to protect him for the expansion draft (he graciously waived anyway knowing he was at virtually no risk of being picked). Can’t waive and send down to the AHL a NMC player either.

giroux has a good agent and attorney. He’s very well protected via his contract. Fletcher has said Giroux decides if and where he’ll go. That’s about right.

I. Understand. What. a. NMC. Is.

I was just informing you that it's not a NTC.

 

[captainpaxil]

That's great, but Marat is still a 2020 2nd round pick who has no plans to come to North America anytime soon. Just because he might eventually be useful if everything goes right doesn't mean he has a ton of value in a trade. Maybe Kaut doesn't have much more, but he's at least in the AHL and could compete for a spot on the Flyers NHL roster in training camp. He's just not good enough to make the Avs.

Also, JTC has another year left on his contract, and could plausibly fit on the Flyers 2nd or 3rd lines next year. He's got some value, no matter how many people want to pretend otherwise because he's slightly overpaid.

I also don't see how Barron doesn't have more value than a rental. Go find another apparently NHL ready 20 year old big RHD with top 4 skills and see what he costs. Or, even easier, what would you want for Cameron York, a smaller LHD with top 4 skills? Does a 1st round pick get it done? Or does apparently being NHL ready and a known entity raise his value?

York is closer to Byram. Barron being right handed had me rank him over zamula who would absolutely be in the conversation if the flyers were pushing for a cup.

Also the flyers are dripping with middle six wingers. So much that it would have to be a seriously high end guy to grab my attention and kaut isn't that

 

[mdm815]

This narrative that G controls his destination (while factual) meaning his value is peanuts is crazy. Him controlling his destination is why the asking price is only a 1st and a decent prospect. GMs don’t screw each other over like ppl imagine on HF, nor do they screw players over. A 1st and good prospect with all things considered is fantastic value for both teams that could be involved. That’s how the world works. He’s not getting moved for junk

 

[Dooble08]

If you're willing to take on a long shot prospect with a low chance of success like Marat, then what's the problem with someone like Stienburg who is currently PPG+ at Cornell?

I also don't see anyone having that much value in a buyers market. Giroux is easily one of the top guys who could be available, but with so much supply I can't see how there's going to be enough demand for the top rentals to drive prices up beyond the generic rental levels.

Really? Nobody projects him to have a low chance of success. He's projected to be a middle 6 talent in the NHL. He has a ton of speed, isn't large, but can still hold his own against larger men in the KHL. It seems like he will come over to the US once his contract is up. I don't think Wild fans have an issue with him growing in the KHL versus growing in the AHL. If I'm getting a 1st round pick and either Marat or Kaut, I'd pick Marat 10 out of 10 times.

This is all speculative as well. G hasn't waived or told the Flyers he wants to be traded. You're also assuming that Miller, Pavelski, and Hertl are all being actively shopped. As of right now, none are. I could see a situation where only G gets traded of the 3. Or all 4 could be. Who knows.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

York is closer to Byram. Barron being right handed had me rank him over zamula who would absolutely be in the conversation if the flyers were pushing for a cup.

Also the flyers are dripping with middle six wingers. So much that it would have to be a seriously high end guy to grab my attention and kaut isn't that

Lol York isn't anywhere near Byram. Even Barron is out producing York in the AHL.

 

[Patagonia]

York is closer to Byram. Barron being right handed had me rank him over zamula who would absolutely be in the conversation if the flyers were pushing for a cup.

Also the flyers are dripping with middle six wingers. So much that it would have to be a seriously high end guy to grab my attention and kaut isn't that

York is nowhere near Byram.

AVs prospect DMen have all outplayed him this season Barron, Helleson and Behrens.

 

[McJedi]

I. Understand. What. a. NMC. Is.

I was just informing you that it's not a NTC.

I’m also aware. It’s nothing but semantics here since there is no expansion draft and he’s not getting waived and sent to the AHL.

Weather its a full NMC or full NTC is inconsequential because Giroux holds all the cards in either scenario and that reduces his trade value.

 

[McJedi]

York is closer to Byram. Barron being right handed had me rank him over zamula who would absolutely be in the conversation if the flyers were pushing for a cup.

Also the flyers are dripping with middle six wingers. So much that it would have to be a seriously high end guy to grab my attention and kaut isn't that

There isn’t a single defender on the Flyers that has the upside of Byram. York isn’t even in the same hemisphere in that respect.

 

[Dooble08]

York is nowhere near Byram.

AVs prospect DMen have all outplayed him this season Barron, Helleson and Behrens.

To be fair, only 1 is an NHLer, York. I don't put stock in who is outplaying who in the AHL, especially when it comes to the Flyers. Players like York and Hart have performed better in the NHL than they did in the AHL.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Really? Nobody projects him to have a low chance of success. He's projected to be a middle 6 talent in the NHL. He has a ton of speed, isn't large, but can still hold his own against larger men in the KHL. It seems like he will come over to the US once his contract is up. I don't think Wild fans have an issue with him growing in the KHL versus growing in the AHL. If I'm getting a 1st round pick and either Marat or Kaut, I'd pick Marat 10 out of 10 times.

This is all speculative as well. G hasn't waived or told the Flyers he wants to be traded. You're also assuming that Miller, Pavelski, and Hertl are all being actively shopped. As of right now, none are. I could see a situation where only G gets traded of the 3. Or all 4 could be. Who knows.

I don't care what he's projected to be if everything works out perfectly, he's nowhere near a sure thing. Even 1st rounds aren't much more than a 50-50 shot at getting an NHLer in any capacity. Add in the fact that he's playing in Russia at the moment with no plans to come over, and I don't think I'd be penciling him in to the lineup anytime soon.

And, yes, what's going to happen leading up to the trade deadline is all speculation. You're assuming Giroux is going to be the best player on the market with little competition which drives the price up, while I'm speculating that it's going to be a buyers market and prices will be much more reasonable. We'll find out who guessed right in the next month or so.

 

[captainpaxil]

There isn’t a single defender on the Flyers that has the upside of Byram. York isn’t even in the same hemisphere in that respect.

York is currently contributing at the NHL level and a key part of plans going forward. He doesn't have Byram's upside but I see him as the only other one in the group who projects as a top pairing guy.
Barron has Middle pairing upside and that's very valuable but comparing his ahl production to a devastated phantoms team isn't something I'd put much weight on

 

[John Mandalorian]

York is currently contributing at the NHL level and a key part of plans going forward. He doesn't have Byram's upside but I see him as the only other one in the group who projects as a top pairing guy.
Barron has Middle pairing upside and that's very valuable but comparing his ahl production to a devastated phantoms team isn't something I'd put much weight on

You wouldn't put much weight on the act of comparing his ahl production to a devastated phantoms team? Or you wouldn't put much weight on the result of a comparison to a devastated phantoms team?

devastated phantoms team.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

York is currently contributing at the NHL level and a key part of plans going forward. He doesn't have Byram's upside but I see him as the only other one in the group who projects as a top pairing guy.
Barron has Middle pairing upside and that's very valuable but comparing his ahl production to a devastated phantoms team isn't something I'd put much weight on

And Barron projects to be EJ's long term replacement on the middle pairing in the near future, which is one of our bigger needs. Maybe he doesn't have a ton of value in a vacuum, but I think he'll be a key part of the plans going forward.