Speculation: Claude Giroux and the Colorado Avalanche

[GirardSpinorama]

Hes going to want to go to a team that has a shot at a cup. Those teams are the only ones who will want to trade for him. So any offer on the table will probably fit what Gs looking for.

If anything, I could see him ruling out western conference teams bc hes got two young kids he may want to stay closer to.

Agreed. If he wants to stay in the east, he will stay in the east. And that team will pay the least they possibly can while not embarrassing Fletcher.

 

[Boondock]

Not at all.
The Avs are already scoring like crazy and adding Giroux won't fix a single flaw that this team has (injuries, goaltending, PK /defensive play of our forwards and potentially a lack of quality on the backend if Byram does not return as the main ones IMO).

Also what Avs fans and others are overlooking is IMO that the West aside from Vegas is in a very bad state. With the Avs core players all being still rather young, it is potentially theirs to win for quite some time if they can get past Vegas. Atleast they should win it a few times in the next 5-6 years if they play their cards right (aka not doing silly stuff at the deadline for example).
Minnesota is doomed after this season due to the recapture for a few years, STL is only getting older and worse, the Canadian teams look like a mess right now (even though Jets and maybe Edmonton might get it together in the next few years but als not likely given the history), Dallas looks old and on their last legs, Vancouver also is in limbo.
The only semi rising teams in the West right that look like a threat down the line are the Kings and maybe the Ducks. And the Kings have Doughty and Kopitar who are also not getting younger.

So why would the Avs push all the chips in the middle at all costs?
Yeah they will probably not get much better in the future as a roster. But they don't have to and there is far from a guarantee that they will be able to overcome Vegas or the multiple juggernauts in the East even if you sacrifice your future for this one run.
So why do it?

There are lots of reasons to put all your chips in when you think you have a shot.
1 - Salary Cap: Colorado's entire 2nd line needs to be re-signed and they will have a hard time keeping everyone especially Kadri. The following season MacKinnon will need a new contract so the chances of having the cap space to build a deeper team than what they could build this year seems difficult.
2 - There are no guarantees in sports for anything. If teams wait for a guarantee to win it all before making trades, there would never be a deal made.
3 - There have been more examples of an "up and coming" team never reaching their peak than there has been of teams that follow linear improvement from worst to first. There is no certainty that players will continue to develop, players can get injured, slow down due to age or personal issues. I'm sure the Montreal Canadians never expected their cup final appearance to be followed up by losing Weber to career ending injury, losing Price to personal issues, losing Edmundson to season long injury, having Petry's quality falter, have Caufield's development slow a bit, have Kotkaniemi offer sheeted, etc, etc. - the point is when you think there's a shot - take it, who knows what next season will bring.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Giroux double retained would only have less than a $2.1m caphit, which would be rather easy to fit in for most teams one would think. Everyone has a surplus 4th liner earning a mill too much.

Most teams might, but I'm not seeing anyone on Tampa like that, nor do I see how Vegas fits any more cap with Eichel's looming return. So, that's a couple of the top teams already out of the running. Toronto doesn't really have any pending UFA cap dumps in that range either, which might be an issue (is Philly really going to take back Kerfoot for another year?).

Add in a healthy dose of doubt that Philly would trade him to a division rival (so no Caps, Rangers, Pens, etc.) or that Giroux is going to waive to go to a longshot team (so no to most of the West), and I'm looking at Florida and Colorado (and maybe Carolina, since it's not as much of a rival) as the teams with a good chance at the Cup who can legitimately make it work. And with how each of those teams is currently playing, I don't expect any of them to be desperate to overpay for Giroux.

 

[Dooble08]

You have to retain cause Claude's cap hit is 8 mill. Name me one contender that can fit that cap hit. If you don't retain, you're not getting any offers at all.

All contenders can fit him in with retention and or a cap dump back. It doesn't cheapen the price.

 

[Starat327]

Most teams might, but I'm not seeing anyone on Tampa like that, nor do I see how Vegas fits any more cap with Eichel's looming return. So, that's a couple of the top teams already out of the running. Toronto doesn't really have any pending UFA cap dumps in that range either, which might be an issue (is Philly really going to take back Kerfoot for another year?).

Add in a healthy dose of doubt that Philly would trade him to a division rival (so no Caps, Rangers, Pens, etc.) or that Giroux is going to waive to go to a longshot team (so no to most of the West), and I'm looking at Florida and Colorado (and maybe Carolina, since it's not as much of a rival) as the teams with a good chance at the Cup who can legitimately make it work. And with how each of those teams is currently playing, I don't expect any of them to be desperate to overpay for Giroux.

I think in this particular instance, you should definitely include the 'rival' (and I use this term lossely) teams as legitimate options simply because it's only for a few months, G is likely to entertain them (to stay close to home), and the reasonable assumption is he isn't signing with any of them long term regardless.

All of this really is moot though. Fletcher isn't going to ask for picks, he's going to want more project try-hard 3rd liners, and he'll likely add to Giroux to get them.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

All contenders can fit him in with retention and or a cap dump back. It doesn't cheapen the price.

How many legitimate contenders are there? Is every wild card team going to be on his list, or just the top teams with a good chance? Of the top teams, how does Tampa fit him, even with retention, and who is the cap dump they send back? Or Vegas? Or Toronto? Are you willing to trade him to Pittsburgh? Seems like it's going to be a limited number of teams, which makes a bidding war less likely, which should keep the price down.

 

[Dooble08]

Based on what I've seen, the the only way a trade happens is if the Flyers are trying to grant Giroux's request to be traded to a contender to give him a shot at the Cup. And, there won't be many realistic destinations, since most contenders won't be able to make the cap work without moving someone important.

So, my question is, how exactly does playing hardball or hanging up on one of the few GMs in the NHL who can realistically give Giroux that good chance at a Cup help achieve the goal of getting him a good chance at the Cup?

Again every team who is a contender can make it work fitting Giroux in. It makes the price go up when cap dumps and retention if offered. A 1st, one of your top 3 prospects (not Newhook or Byram) and JTC for Giroux is not a ridiculous ask at all. I mean if CF is smart (he isn't), he'll ask Newhook. Sakic will say no.....as he should and offer some B or C tier prospect. Then they'll settle on Helleson, Barron, or Olausson. You want a Cup. We want to rebuild to get to the point where we may be able to win a Cup. Sending us pick 31 in the draft and one of those 3 certainly isn't mortgaging the future.

If not, I'd circle to some of the other contenders, even the ones in the Eastern Conference. I'd hate to see G on the Rangers. But it depends on the return. Giroux to Carolina or Florida would certainly be awesome (though probably isn't happening). Tampa or Vegas would be hilarious and give him an even better shot at winning a cup. Toronto would be another interesting team in a similar situation to Colorado.

 

[Dooble08]

How many legitimate contenders are there? Is every wild card team going to be on his list, or just the top teams with a good chance? Of the top teams, how does Tampa fit him, even with retention, and who is the cap dump they send back? Or Vegas? Or Toronto? Are you willing to trade him to Pittsburgh? Seems like it's going to be a limited number of teams, which makes a bidding war less likely, which should keep the price down.

Carolina, Florida, Toronto, Tampa Bay in the East. Vegas and Colorado in the West. Don't care how they make it work. Whoever sends us the best offer as well as if G wants to go there. Don't care about the cap dump. As long as their contract ends at the end of the year.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I think in this particular instance, you should definitely include the 'rival' (and I use this term lossely) teams as legitimate options simply because it's only for a few months, G is likely to entertain them (to stay close to home), and the reasonable assumption is he isn't signing with any of them long term regardless.

All of this really is moot though. Fletcher isn't going to ask for picks, he's going to want more project try-hard 3rd liners, and he'll likely add to Giroux to get them.

Maybe the Rangers and the Caps could be options, but I struggle to believe the Flyers would give him to Pittsburgh if there's any other offer on the table.

Also, Compher is a project try-hard 3rd liner (he was once 2nd in NCAA scoring), so he's probably perfect without the Avs needing to add much of anything. We could even graciously decline anything being added to Giroux, if that helps Fletcher justify it.

 

[wankstifier]

How many legitimate contenders are there? Is every wild card team going to be on his list, or just the top teams with a good chance? Of the top teams, how does Tampa fit him, even with retention, and who is the cap dump they send back? Or Vegas? Or Toronto? Are you willing to trade him to Pittsburgh? Seems like it's going to be a limited number of teams, which makes a bidding war less likely, which should keep the price down.

Giroux said he thought that Fletcher put together a good team in the offseason. And, Couturier re-signed to a team friendly deal with the expectation that the Flyers would be in the playoff mix for the forseeable future. I don't trust either player's ability to evaluate the strength of a team.

 

[Starat327]

Maybe the Rangers and the Caps could be options, but I struggle to believe the Flyers would give him to Pittsburgh if there's any other offer on the table.

Also, Compher is a project try-hard 3rd liner (he was once 2nd in NCAA scoring), so he's probably perfect without the Avs needing to add much of anything. We could even graciously decline anything being added to Giroux, if that helps Fletcher justify it.

If Fletcher isn't overpaying for mediocre-at-best talent, he don't want it.

Honestly, I cant see the Flyers really standing in Gs way of wherever he wants to go. If there's a scenario where he says "I want to go to pittsburgh", I think they let him.

I think a realistic situation is he says that he's willing to entertain waiving for a few different teams, and the flyers take "bids". I dont think he says "I only want to go here", but plays nice so the Flyers can maximize his return. He'll ultimately control the destination but I dont think hell pigeonhole the team, either.

He's a 1st+Blue chip talent even despite his age. Getting that in return isn't realistic, though. I'd say a 2nd and someone like barron is probably in the ballpark, or 1st+ Barron for Giroux and our 2nd or something. I'd like to hope Fletcher maximizes the value but I just don't think he's smart enough to pull it off.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

If Fletcher isn't overpaying for mediocre-at-best talent, he don't want it.

Honestly, I cant see the Flyers really standing in Gs way of wherever he wants to go. If there's a scenario where he says "I want to go to pittsburgh", I think they let him.

I think a realistic situation is he says that he's willing to entertain waiving for a few different teams, and the flyers take "bids". I dont think he says "I only want to go here", but plays nice so the Flyers can maximize his return. He'll ultimately control the destination but I dont think hell pigeonhole the team, either.

He's a 1st+Blue chip talent even despite his age. Getting that in return isn't realistic, though. I'd say a 2nd and someone like barron is probably in the ballpark, or 1st+ Barron for Giroux and our 2nd or something. I'd like to hope Fletcher maximizes the value but I just don't think he's smart enough to pull it off.

That certainly sounds much more reasonable and realistic than the suggestions of the Flyers trying to play hardball and hanging up on Sakic for submitting his bid of a 1st + Compher + B prospect.

 

[Starat327]

That certainly sounds much more reasonable and realistic than the suggestions of the Flyers trying to play hardball and hanging up on Sakic for submitting his bid of a 1st + Compher + B prospect.

He's arguably the best rental that will have been available in the last ten years or so. Theres definitely a cost that will come with that. That said, cap space is a real thing, and his no movement clause will also restrict the availability some. There's a gaping chasm of possibilities between "we want your first, and A+, and your top6 20year old center" and "he has a NMC so you'll take future considerations and you'll like it".

I woulsnt at all be surprised to see something like Compher included as some value but also cap to eliminate the need for a second retention team, as well as a 1st and a 4th, for Giroux and a bottom 6 prospect or 5th or something. I know that no one cares about late round picks on here (myself included) but theu seem to always worm their way into these deals.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

All contenders can fit him in with retention and or a cap dump back. It doesn't cheapen the price.

It just makes the retention valueless. Giroux at 8 mill with no retention is unworkable.

 

[Seras]

He has a full NMC? Might be in his best interests to just stay in Philly this year

Playing in the playoffs on a different team only adds risk with little reward

 

[hughdreamz]

He has a full NMC? Might be in his best interests to just stay in Philly this year

Playing in the playoffs on a different team only adds risk with little reward

How?

 

[Dooble08]

It just makes the retention valueless. Giroux at 8 mill with no retention is unworkable.

Rangers can do it.

 

[McJedi]

If he is only willing to go to one team and that team offers less than a 1st, do they just tell Giroux fine miss the playoffs we'd rather get nothing than a 4th round pick to make you happy. After all a 4th rder is unlikely to make a difference.

Even as an Avs fan, if I’m Philly I tell Colorado to buzz off if sakic wont offer a 2023 1st. Fletcher can’t let himself be embarrassed even with the NMC.

 

[McJedi]

It just makes the retention valueless. Giroux at 8 mill with no retention is unworkable.

That’s just ~$2mm by the deadline. ~$1mm at 50% retained.

 

[FlyguyOX]

The starting ask that was reported on coldstove podcast in December and reiterated today on Twitter is a 1st and a very good young player. All these “2nd a our B prospect and a cap dump” shitty trades can buzz off.

 

[txpd]

Most teams might, but I'm not seeing anyone on Tampa like that, nor do I see how Vegas fits any more cap with Eichel's looming return. So, that's a couple of the top teams already out of the running. Toronto doesn't really have any pending UFA cap dumps in that range either, which might be an issue (is Philly really going to take back Kerfoot for another year?).

Add in a healthy dose of doubt that Philly would trade him to a division rival (so no Caps, Rangers, Pens, etc.) or that Giroux is going to waive to go to a longshot team (so no to most of the West), and I'm looking at Florida and Colorado (and maybe Carolina, since it's not as much of a rival) as the teams with a good chance at the Cup who can legitimately make it work. And with how each of those teams is currently playing, I don't expect any of them to be desperate to overpay for Giroux.

I think you misread the situation. The Bruins, Caps and Rangers are the only teams he may be considering. He can live and home and communte a lot of the time the way the shuttle flights run. Its 1 hour from Philly to DC. On practice days and off days he can be at home. With having kids of very possible that this is his consideration.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I think you misread the situation. The Bruins, Caps and Rangers are the only teams he may be considering. He can live and home and communte a lot of the time the way the shuttle flights run. Its 1 hour from Philly to DC. On practice days and off days he can be at home. With having kids of very possible that this is his consideration.

Agree with the sentiment and that he wants to remain close to his family, but I’ve heard it’s more along the lines that he doesn’t want to be in Canada (can’t blame him) and doesn’t want to be west of the Mississippi

 

[Seras]

How?

He will get a good contract as a UFA if he turns down any and all trade requests.

If he leaves he takes an additional chance at injury and if he doesn't play well he hurts his chances at a good contract, if he plays well he will likely increase his value, but how much and for how much.

If he has a full NTC, Giroux is likely better off staying in Philly and signing in the off season.

 

[Harhis]

He will get a good contract as a UFA if he turns down any and all trade requests.

If he leaves he takes an additional chance at injury and if he doesn't play well he hurts his chances at a good contract, if he plays well he will likely increase his value, but how much and for how much.

If he has a full NTC, Giroux is likely better off staying in Philly and signing in the off season.

He really seems like a guy who wants to win. He is 34 so there really is not many chances for him. This might be his best chance since he can pick where he goes.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I think you misread the situation. The Bruins, Caps and Rangers are the only teams he may be considering. He can live and home and communte a lot of the time the way the shuttle flights run. Its 1 hour from Philly to DC. On practice days and off days he can be at home. With having kids of very possible that this is his consideration.

If his priority is to stay closer to home and still get a chance at the playoffs, and those are the only teams he's willing to waive for, then that's a different conversation. I was working under the impression that his goal would be to have the best chance at the Cup. Either way, it'll probably still be a small number of teams with a realistic chance of getting him, which makes a bidding war less likely. He'll still return good value, just probably not anything crazy because most of the desperate bubble teams probably won't be eligible to bid.