Jeff Marek was talking about this on NHL Radio a few minutes ago and seemed to think this deal happens.
This has the potential to be catastrophic for Jr. A hockey. If the NCAA agrees, there would be no reason for good players to play in the USHL or BCHL. This deal really only benefits the best players, who can now play their 16-20 yr old seasons in the CHL and if they aren't NHL caliber, another 4 seasons in the NCAA.
Gone will be the days where a "good" but not "great" player has any hope of a D1 scholarship. This'll be great for D3 and ACHA programs, because they'll now be getting a lot of talent that is currently D1.
But for the most part all this does is give CHL caliber players 8 years of high level hockey, instead of having to resign to the reality of playing CIS.
The USHL is not Junior A, it is its own thing and operates outside of the Hockey Canada umbrella. 40 USHL players were drafted in 2023, or 28 USHL "proper" players (not USA NTDP). For what it's worth, only 12 players were drafted out of the QMJHL. The USHL and QMJHL have around the same proportion of currently undrafted players in the League, which wouldn't factor in all the players drafted out of the USHL that have moved onto NCAA already, which is kinda crazy.
Some of the players drafted out of NCAA conferences (Adam Fantilli is the most obvious and glaring) are USHL alums as well.
It will likely push some more Michigan kids to the OHL, I don't think Massachusetts kids and Minnesota kids would opt out of the HS/Prep School -> USHL -> NCAA path. Not sure about New York and Illinois, only 4 kids from each in the OHL today (45 and 36 respectively in USHL).
If the NCAA agrees not to touch any CHL Player until they are 20 and have completed their Junior eligibility, then it's a killer for USports but probably not super relevant for the USHL, as any high-end kids aren't going to want to wait around that long. The best (high draft picks) jump to NCAA at 18 and then there's a huge wave across the spectrum of kids that jump to NCAA at 19 (104 NCAA players that are 19 this year) because they aren't trying to wait around to start college.
NAHL will take a big hit. That's the 2nd biggest feeder to NCAA (low level teams) and consists of players not particularly close to the draft radar that can't make the USHL. USA Hockey wouldn't be all that pleased as that's a path to keep more kids in the system and on the road to a potential NCAA offer. But USA Hockey is so focused on players towards the top that it won't care that much.