Confirmed Signing with Link: [CHI] Seth Jones signs extension with the Blackhawks (8 years, $9.5M AAV)

[JoeSakic13]

You think that's gonna last?

No. I don’t think anyone is serious (or if you’re an Avs fan wants that to be serious) about that lasting. However you can’t fault the guy for the immediate callout considering he bashed JJ in a situation dripping with irony.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Only one game doesn't really matter when this contract was bad the second it was signed.
He's going to be overpaid for the duration the only question is how much, maybe 1M, maybe 4M.

 

[BrokenFace]

Buyout in 2024-2025 incoming.

Why bother with a buyout when LTIRetirement works so well?

 

[Viqsi]

Yikes. Don't get me wrong, y'all, I love a good narrative in which my team comes out the dominant winner as much as the next homer fan, but c'mon. Lots of folks jumping to very premature conclusions here.

 

[Crow]

Yikes. Don't get me wrong, y'all, I love a good narrative in which my team comes out the dominant winner as much as the next homer fan, but c'mon. Lots of folks jumping to very premature conclusions here.

So he isn’t getting bought out because of opening night mediocrity?

 

[TheNumber4]

I watched the whole game, the Hawks got f***ing smoked the first period and were outshot 18-2. Jones wasn't making egregious plays that were directly leading to scoring chances. Hockey is way too much of a luck and bounce sport that relies on a whole team that you can just pull up analytics of shots for and against, scoring chances for and against, and get the whole picture. In baseball, I live and die by analytics because its 1 on 1 controllable events over and over with tons of data.

I didn't like the contract the day it was signed, and didn't like how much we gave up in the trade, but Jones got smoked in the first period just like every single other Hawks player. After that, he was good and I thought he generated and exited the zone fine. I'm still not a fan of the trade, but hockey analytics as a whole have a long way to go before you can pull them up after a game and feel good about what you're seeing.

Something analytics guys are too dumb to understand. The stats they use are TEAM stats and they try to apply it to individual performance. I don’t doubt that one day you’ll be able to determine individual performance with stats, but that day is not now, and Corsi is not the stat to do it.

 

[TheNumber4]

On a brighter note Hawks fans, Kieth still looks good like you all said he would despite getting clobbered by Myers.

 

[Viqsi]

Something analytics guys are too dumb to understand. The stats they use are TEAM stats and they try to apply it to individual performance. I don’t doubt that one day you’ll be able to determine individual performance with stats, but that day is not now, and Corsi is not the stat to do it.

Those are the folks I refer to as "analytics bandwagoners". The people putting together the stats are aware of how that goes. The bandwagoners are just trying to win points by pretending to look smart.

 

[TheNumber4]

Those are the folks I refer to as "analytics bandwagoners". The people putting together the stats are aware of how that goes. The bandwagoners are just trying to win points by pretending to look smart.

I could see this. The dudes that are actually the source for the stats know their limits and know how and why they need to be improved. Then there’s the idiots that think they are magic all-seeing numbers and have no sense of the old statistical adage of “Garbage In Garbage Out”

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

It's not fair to judge any defenseman in Colliton's crap system. Wait until the Hawks get someone in here that can actually coach defensive structure.

 

[CanadianHawks]

On a brighter note Hawks fans, Kieth still looks good like you all said he would despite getting clobbered by Myers.

Notice a trend

Guys like Zadarov and Keith will look just fine. Slotted where they should be in tighter defensive systems with real coaches

You could put any D in this system and they will look mediocre

Knowledgeable Hawks fans have acknowledged this fact for a period of time now. You can’t judge D men in this tire fire. I can’t think of any Hawk expect Murphy who has looked even passable as a top four guy in this system

 

[CanadianHawks]

Those are the folks I refer to as "analytics bandwagoners". The people putting together the stats are aware of how that goes. The bandwagoners are just trying to win points by pretending to look smart.

These are the same people who watch the news for 30 mins and have an ‘educated’ opinion on every topic ranging from healthcare, military and foreign politics

 

[PensandCaps]

Something analytics guys are too dumb to understand. The stats they use are TEAM stats and they try to apply it to individual performance. I don’t doubt that one day you’ll be able to determine individual performance with stats, but that day is not now, and Corsi is not the stat to do it.

Doubt any serious person who uses analytics uses Corsi

 

[NJ DevLolz]

It’s one game you freaks.

It’s two years you freak

 

[Shane Diesel]

It's not fair to judge any defenseman in Colliton's crap system. Wait until the Hawks get someone in here that can actually coach defensive structure.

And the fact he wasn't very good the past couple of seasons under Tortorella, a coach obsessed with defensive structure, should put this excuse to bed.

 

[Mr Sakich]

It's not fair to judge any defenseman in Colliton's crap system. Wait until the Hawks get someone in here that can actually coach defensive structure.

Colliton's crap system is why I was not afraid of the Keith trade. The Oilers went through that when we had Eakins as a coach. Every player regressed when he joined us and every player magically improved when he left us

 

[Guttersniped]

I am convinced that individual stats are influenced by team situation ( TOI, partner, quality of goaltending and coaching) far greater that what our current analytics would lead us to believe

It will be very interesting to compare Seth Jones to Duncan Keith at the end of this year. According to analytics guys, Kieth was one of the 3 or 4 worst dmen in the league last year. Well, he has looked very good so far this year. He did not change, his situation changed

“So far” Keith has played one real game where he played slightly under 13 minutes 5v5 against the Canucks, who were mostly dominated and bailed out by Demko.

And Jones played slightly under 19 minutes 5v5 against the Avs, who completely dominated and Fleury didn’t bail the Hawks out. (Not that he’s to blame.)

Statistics are showing events on the ice, and they track a lot, and there aren’t stats for “things are going terribly when he does things but he’s a good player if you really think about it”. If Keith does better on the third pairing on better team in a worse division, well, no shit, that’s how hockey works. It’s pretty common actually for non-junk 3rd pair guys to statistically look good, then it becomes a question of if they could handle more minutes. (And often the answer is no.)

Jones is in his prime and is being paid to be a 1st pair defenseman, so his comparables aren’t Keith but other 1st pair defensemen.

Also, posters who jump on this thread to bury him after one game are trolling. Defenseman typically struggle on a new team, it was unlikely that Jones was going to come to a defensive mess like the Hawks and hit the ground running. It didn’t secretly go well for him personally though, so I don’t know how you think the statistics are mistaken.

We could always use more information of course and, yes, individual players are a part of team, I think people are very aware of these factors too.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

And the fact he wasn't very good the past couple of seasons under Tortorella, a coach obsessed with defensive structure, should put this excuse to bed.

He wasn't terrible in 2019-20 but was last year, however it seemed that Torts had run his course in Columbus so idk if it's fair to judge a guy who not only didn't want to be there but was playing for a team that had quit on their coach.

Analytics have never completely liked Jones but look at the way that hockey people talk about Jones vs Hamilton and look at how the analytics folks talk about them.

People that are paid to make decisions in the NHL overwhelmingly prefer Jones and it's not particularly close either.

 

[goonybird]

People that are paid to make decisions in the NHL overwhelmingly prefer [insert player who will be bought out here]

 

[Djp]

You realize it was one game right?

I agree the first game on a new ream and new system can be bad.

he us overpaid by money now and term later.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

People that are paid to make decisions in the NHL overwhelmingly prefer [insert player who will be bought out here]

Do you think that Nick Bonino is a better hockey player than Patrick Kane?

 

[goonybird]

Do you think that Nick Bonino is a better hockey player than Patrick Kane?

Do I think every player who wins a big contract is highly sought after and sometimes big contracts are huge flops?

I think that's the point you missed

 

[TheNumber4]

Doubt any serious person who uses analytics uses Corsi

True. But the most serious of analytics atleast in the public realm is WAR, which does use Corsi as a key input data (among other things)

 

[goonybird]

True. But the most serious of analytics atleast in the public realm is WAR, which does use Corsi as a key input data (among other things)

WAR? huh. what is it good for?

Absolutely nothin'

 

[Mr Positive]

“So far” Keith has played one real game where he played slightly under 13 minutes 5v5 against the Canucks, who were mostly dominated and bailed out by Demko.

And Jones played slightly under 19 minutes 5v5 against the Avs, who completely dominated and Fleury didn’t bail the Hawks out. (Not that he’s to blame.)

Statistics are showing events on the ice, and they track a lot, and there aren’t stats for “things are going terribly when he does things but he’s a good player if you really think about it”. If Keith does better on the third pairing on better team in a worse division, well, no shit, that’s how hockey works. It’s pretty common actually for non-junk 3rd pair guys to statistically look good, then it becomes a question of if they could handle more minutes. (And often the answer is no.)

Jones is in his prime and is being paid to be a 1st pair defenseman, so his comparables aren’t Keith but other 1st pair defensemen.

Also, posters who jump on this thread to bury him after one game are trolling. Defenseman typically struggle on a new team, it was unlikely that Jones was going to come to a defensive mess like the Hawks and hit the ground running. It didn’t secretly go well for him personally though, so I don’t know how you think the statistics are mistaken.

We could always use more information of course and, yes, individual players are a part of team, I think people are very aware of these factors too.

I can agree with this, and it is early. One issue I have is you bring up ice time. Keith playing less is baked into the logic of this trade. It should give him a boost in his stats playing a lesser role.

Basically the Hawks didnt have a #1 Dman last year.

This was a great trade and signing for the Hawks to get Jones. Why not go for it every year when you have Kane and Toews? Other teams with aging cores do this too. It's also not like #1D are readily available