Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

[Gabrielor]

This isn't implying the 'untoucable' word.

They shouldn't trade Mittelstadt this summer, and if there is a really sharp extension to be made, consider it.

Just get Dahlin done first. and maybe Power if we're lucky.

Casey's part of this now. I won't deny it anymore.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I've never been a fan of Casey but man even before the points started coming he was passing the eye test for me. He was working his balls off in all zones, I just think at winger it helped him click and get some confidence.

Just shows while analytics are a very helpful tool, they aren't the end all be all. At the very least I'd like to keep assessing him until January 1 and see how he progresses. Don't think the extension needs to be made now.

 

[toddkaz]

I've never been a fan of Casey but man even before the points started coming he was passing the eye test for me. He was working his balls off in all zones, I just think at winger it helped him click and get some confidence.

Just shows while analytics are a very helpful tool, they aren't the end all be all. At the very least I'd like to keep assessing him until January 1 and see how he progresses. Don't think the extension needs to be made now.

The one thing I noticed more than anything the last 40 games or so was he was always the third man back sometimes even the second or first if it was a bad play. It looks like he fully bought into what Granato is selling.

The other major improvement was his ability to make plays at high speeds. I think that took a big step too. Previous years it looked like he processed the game a step behind.

He might have the ability to drive his own line next year.

 

[Fezzy126]

I've never been a fan of Casey but man even before the points started coming he was passing the eye test for me. He was working his balls off in all zones, I just think at winger it helped him click and get some confidence.

Just shows while analytics are a very helpful tool, they aren't the end all be all. At the very least I'd like to keep assessing him until January 1 and see how he progresses. Don't think the extension needs to be made now.

Personally, I think his linemates had more of an impact than where he played. Having some combination of Olofsson, Hino, Asplund, or Krebs on his wings for the first half of the year was disastrous. Every one of those players were boat anchors around his neck, and only Krebs improved as the season went on.

I'm interested in whether the team sees Casey as a top 6 piece or a middle 6 piece moving forward. Most fans seem to think of Casey as fixture on our 3rd line moving forward. But the results with Casey as the 1C were really impressive:

The sample size is small, but those results happened in our highest pressure games against very good opponents. I already can't wait to see the preseason lines next year!

 

[toddkaz]

Personally, I think his linemates had more of an impact than where he played. Having some combination of Olofsson, Hino, Asplund, or Krebs on his wings for the first half of the year was disastrous. Every one of those players were boat anchors around his neck, and only Krebs improved as the season went on.

I'm interested in whether the team sees Casey as a top 6 piece or a middle 6 piece moving forward. Most fans seem to think of Casey as fixture on our 3rd line moving forward. But the results with Casey as the 1C were really impressive:

View attachment 688943

The sample size is small, but those results happened in our highest pressure games against very good opponents. I already can't wait to see the preseason lines next year!

Numbers don't lie. Tough to bump Thompson off of the top line but is the team better with Casey as the 1C and Thompson on the second line? It looks like it.

Casey is a better passer than Thompson. the top 6 is better with Casey as the 1C but its a small sample size.

 

[Fezzy126]

Numbers don't lie. Tough to bump Thompson off of the top line but is the team better with Casey as the 1C and Thompson on the second line? It looks like it.

At the very least, it's nice to know who you can bump around when lines get stagnant. So if they start with:

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn

It's nice to know you can swap Casey and Tage when you need to mix things up, either in games or during a losing streak.

 

[toddkaz]

At the very least, it's nice to know who you can bump around when lines get stagnant. So if they start with:

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn

It's nice to know you can swap Casey and Tage when you need to mix things up, either in games or during a losing streak.

My only knock on Tage is faceoffs. Tough to have your 1C with a 43% faceoff percentage. Casey's was not much better. It seems to be an issue for next year that Adams and Granato needs to look at.

 

[Archie Lee]

At the very least, it's nice to know who you can bump around when lines get stagnant. So if they start with:

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn

It's nice to know you can swap Casey and Tage when you need to mix things up, either in games or during a losing streak.

This is what I think. It also balances the left/right handed face-off situation with Thompson/Skinner and Cozens/Mitts being able to share O and D zone draws based on which side of the ice the face-off is on.

Also, it allows Krebs to take the role of 3rd line C (with Greenway and Peterka on his wings?).

Mitts moves to centre if Thompson or Cozens are out.

It will be an interesting summer. I don't know how Savoie or Kulich fit.

 

[MOGlLNY]

This is what I think. It also balances the left/right handed face-off situation with Thompson/Skinner and Cozens/Mitts being able to share O and D zone draws based on which side of the ice the face-off is on.

Also, it allows Krebs to take the role of 3rd line C (with Greenway and Peterka on his wings?).

Mitts moves to centre if Thompson or Cozens are out.

It will be an interesting summer. I don't know how Savoie or Kulich fit.

I think there's no way Kulich starts the season here unless he goes off in camp and pre-season. I think he gets called up halfway and never looks back.

Savoie might be staying with the big club by force because he can't play in the AHL.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

My only knock on Tage is faceoffs. Tough to have your 1C with a 43% faceoff percentage. Casey's was not much better. It seems to be an issue for next year that Adams and Granato needs to look at.

Let's draft Yanic Perreault's kid and then get the old man to teach the team how to win faceoffs.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Let's draft Yanic Perreault's kid and then get the old man to teach the team how to win faceoffs.

Related to him (Yanic), in the 1994-95 season he played in 94 games between LA and the Roadrunners that season

 

[Dingo44]

 

[Dingo44]

 

[TehDoak]

So, it's pretty difficult to find comps for Mittelstadt.

The name that always pops up is Josh Bailey. Former high draft pick, never really had a huge season, etc. Now, Bailey has been HEALTHIER than Mittelstadt, but, the comps are OK, especially looking at a PPG thru the first 5 seasons

Josh Bailey (2009-2014) vs. Casey Mittelstadt (2018-2023): Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com

Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Josh Bailey (2009-2014) and Casey Mittelstadt (2018-2023) including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com

stathead.com

The other name others have brought up is Killorn.

Now, Killorn signed when he was 23. But he signed his extension after 4 seasons. So I compared Mittelstadt's last 4 seasons vs Killorn's 1st four. The age difference is off (Mittelstadt age 21-24, Killorn age 23-26), but the GPG/PPG is shockingly nearly identical.

Alex Killorn (2013-2016) vs. Casey Mittelstadt (2020-2023): Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com

Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Alex Killorn (2013-2016) and Casey Mittelstadt (2020-2023) including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com

stathead.com

Looking at potential comps:

Killorn's deal was 6.1% of the cap ceiling when he signed. (7 years)
Bailey's deal was 5.13% when he signed his first extension (5 years)

Now, personally, I don't think we should even worry about Mittelstadt this summer. Worse case scenario, he goes to arb that summer and we get him for 1 more year and he walks. However, the team likely disagrees with me, and given the comments from Adams, they will probably extend him this summer.

To me, a "fair" market value would be:

between 5% (4.2M) -6.25% (5.1M) of the cap ceiling, with it inching up higher as you get closer to 7 years.

I DON'T think you go 7 years. In fact, I think your ideal is 4 years. That puts him under contract until he's 29, essentially right to the other side of the aging curve. And if he has done well, he will get a great opportunity to explore the market.

Mittelstadt on a 4 year, 18-20M deal? I could get on board with that.

Mittelstadt on a 7 year, 45M deal? No no no.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Now, personally, I don't think we should even worry about Mittelstadt this summer. Worse case scenario, he goes to arb that summer and we get him for 1 more year and he walks. However, the team likely disagrees with me, and given the comments from Adams, they will probably extend him this summer.

Shockingly for once we agree . I think waiting another year let's them further evaluate what they have not only in Mitts, but also Peterka, Quinn, Krebs, and to some extent Greenway.

They already have Tage and Cozens locked up. Skinner is probably here for the duration of his contract regardless of how he performs, and Tuch is here for the foreseeable future. With Savoie, Kulich, Ostlund, Rosen and others potentially coming, they need to figure out how to make it all fit while having space for some of the prospects in the next few seasons. I doubt they are going to put them all on the 4th line and run all offense all the time, though it would be an interesting experiment. And letting kids overcook in the AHL seems like a bad move as well if they don't have space for them in 2 or 3 seasons.

 

[Fjordy]

Looks like Mitts had a good season, although I didn't really believe in this guy, my bad.

 

[Dingo44]

Casey Mittelstadt rewards Sabres’ faith with breakout year: ‘Sense of loyalty’ - Buffalo Hockey Beat

BUFFALO – There was a time it felt like Casey Mittelstadt wouldn’t be around to experience a revival here. As the talented forward struggled to reach his potential and earn a spot in the lineup, the Sabres seemed to keep hitting rock bottom. Another team might’ve jettisoned Mittelstadt, the...

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Casey Mittelstadt rewards Sabres’ faith with breakout year: ‘Sense of loyalty’ - Buffalo Hockey Beat

BUFFALO – There was a time it felt like Casey Mittelstadt wouldn’t be around to experience a revival here. As the talented forward struggled to reach his potential and earn a spot in the lineup, the Sabres seemed to keep hitting rock bottom. Another team might’ve jettisoned Mittelstadt, the...

www.buffalohockeybeat.com

Hopefully that sense of loyalty results in him taking a discount to stay here if they see him as a long term core piece. I was admittedly down on him, but he really grew on me with his hard work as the season went along.

 

[Matt Ress]

This team needs veteran forwards that are tough to play against. Casey is exactly that and I'd love to lock him up for another 5 or 6.

 

[Archie Lee]

I think we will see Casey start the year on Cozens wing. He earned top 6 minutes at the end of last year and playing with Cozens keeps him top 6 and gives him offensively skilled line mates. If Thompson or Cozens go down for a stretch, he can slide to centre.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Just to throw this out there. I kind of made myself scarce during the Krueger years for obvious reasons but…

How big a push was there to jettison mitts?

Certainly didn’t see anything any worse than any other player.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I think we will see Casey start the year on Cozens wing. He earned top 6 minutes at the end of last year and playing with Cozens keeps him top 6 and gives him offensively skilled line mates. If Thompson or Cozens go down for a stretch, he can slide to centre.

I've liked this idea also. There was like a week or two where Mitts was on Cozens wing and the two looked to compliment each other really well. Also Donny likes to switch them up on draws to depending what dot they are on.

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-Krebs-Peterka
Zemgus-Jost-Okposo

4th line is obviously if all 3 come back but the top 9 is what I would like to see to start the year.

 

[Archie Lee]

I've liked this idea also. There was like a week or two where Mitts was on Cozens wing and the two looked to compliment each other really well. Also Donny likes to switch them up on draws to depending what dot they are on.

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-Krebs-Peterka
Zemgus-Jost-Okposo

4th line is obviously if all 3 come back but the top 9 is what I would like to see to start the year.

Your lines are basically how I see it. As you say, assuming the 4th line is all back. I could see them swapping Greenway and Quinn for a period, if they want to try and unlock Greenway's offensive game. Also, the wing with Cozens and Mitts might be the place to start Savoie or Kulich if either is in the NHL to begin the year. They really have a lot of options, and this doesn't include players like Olofsson, Rousek and Biro or players who might be acquired in the off-season. The forward depth is strong.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Just to throw this out there. I kind of made myself scarce during the Krueger years for obvious reasons but…

How big a push was there to jettison mitts?

Certainly didn’t see anything any worse than any other player.

There was a huge push by people to get rid of him. Because he was a bust.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Just to throw this out there. I kind of made myself scarce during the Krueger years for obvious reasons but…

How big a push was there to jettison mitts?

Certainly didn’t see anything any worse than any other player.

There were a bunch of posters who wanted him traded for peanuts. I was pretty indifferent toward him up until the midpoint of this season when his linemates changed. He really sold me when he took over for Thompson later in the year. Now, he's looking like he may be a core piece going forward.

A 50-60 point, two-way player who can play C or W + is a work horse is a nice piece to have in the top-9. He may have some more untapped potential offensively as well. He's got a pretty good wrist shot; if he grows to trust it more, then watch out! Those point/goal totals may rise a bit!