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Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

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Archie Lee said:
Your lines are basically how I see it. As you say, assuming the 4th line is all back. I could see them swapping Greenway and Quinn for a period, if they want to try and unlock Greenway's offensive game. Also, the wing with Cozens and Mitts might be the place to start Savoie or Kulich if either is in the NHL to begin the year. They really have a lot of options, and this doesn't include players like Olofsson, Rousek and Biro or players who might be acquired in the off-season. The forward depth is strong.
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We might see one of Kulich and Savoie but it all depends on what happens to Jost, Zemgus and Okie. If all 3 come back then I doubt we see them. Unless Savoie gets the Shane Wright treatment and if that's the case, putting him with Cozens and Mitts would be ideal
 
Gabrielor said:
Probably similar point wise, or maybe less, but I did his defensive acumen improves, because I foresee Granato trying to use him like that.
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I think they should (find a coach who can) teach him how to PK. He's got the right work ethic for it.
 
alehman42 said:
Mittelstadt is still only 24 and has shown himself to be a useful Swiss army knife type forward; I think I'd actually prefer a medium-term extension for him. Something like $18 mil over 4 years or $22 mil over 5...I wouldn't complain.
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I'd be happy with 6 years x 5.25...3C who can play up the lineup, no brainer
 
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Push Dr Tracksuit said:
Too much too long for a depth player that doesn’t pk.
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If he could pk well and win some draws he'd be a core guy. We really didn't have any good pk forwards last season. Maybe they address that with personnel and coaching.

E: got me digging a bit. CM looked to be not a great PKer. Maybe I'm reading these wrong but according to SHGA/60 Stillman had the lowest on the team with 7.1 which works out to be about 76% kill rate if we assume 30 PPs per 60 minutes. Not great for your leader and unfortunately he only played 28 seconds a game on the kill with a smaller sample size.
CM - 12.9 SHGA/60 = 57% kill rate
Krebs - 8.2 SHGA/60 = 73% kill rate
Krebbers was the top forward
 
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I don’t have any opinion on a Mittelstadt contract. I tried to have one all day at work. I just cant get there.

If they gave him the Olofsson buy one UFA year extension and hope he ups his trade value this year? Cool.

If they gave him a long term extension because they get him on what they consider a deal? Cool.

If they traded him tomorrow? Cool.

Just don’t sign him long term for big money and it’s going to be fine.
 
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Buffalo has a good group of prospects that can turn into an effective 3rd line or overall secondary scoring...eventually. If we want something like that now, Mittelstadt should stay put and be at least one reliable player for that purpose. Hopefully Greenway and somebody else can make a useful 3rd line (assuming Quinn and Peterka improve also). Trading Mittelstadt, even if for a 2nd pair RHD, is tanking that idea, as replacing him puts even more question marks into 3rd line effectiveness, especially defensively.

Let's keep the small bit of good depth that we have until a couple prospects get their NHL game together. There are plenty of other assets to trade that make more sense.
 
Sabresfansince1980 said:
Buffalo has a good group of prospects that can turn into an effective 3rd line or overall secondary scoring...eventually. If we want something like that now, Mittelstadt should stay put and be at least one reliable player for that purpose. Hopefully Greenway and somebody else can make a useful 3rd line (assuming Quinn and Peterka improve also). Trading Mittelstadt, even if for a 2nd pair RHD, is tanking that idea, as replacing him puts even more question marks into 3rd line effectiveness, especially defensively.

Let's keep the small bit of good depth that we have until a couple prospects get their NHL game together. There are plenty of other assets to trade that make more sense.
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I think Krebs would be a good replacement. Not that I want to trade Mitts, but for the right player it might make sense.
 
Fjordy said:
I think Krebs would be a good replacement. Not that I want to trade Mitts, but for the right player it might make sense.
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Krebs might be a good ADDITION, but not a replacement. If Savoie or a surprise UFA signing like Compher come along then maybe you can go Greenway-Krebs-new guy. For now, Greenway-Krebs-Mitts might make sense to have an effective 3rd line.
 
Sabresfansince1980 said:
Krebs might be a good ADDITION, but not a replacement. If Savoie or a surprise UFA signing like Compher come along then maybe you can go Greenway-Krebs-new guy. For now, Greenway-Krebs-Mitts might make sense to have an effective 3rd line.
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Well like I said for the right deal I would do it. Our attack depth is much better than our defenses.
 
alehman42 said:
Mittelstadt is still only 24 and has shown himself to be a useful Swiss army knife type forward; I think I'd actually prefer a medium-term extension for him. Something like $18 mil over 4 years or $22 mil over 5...I wouldn't complain.
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I think what Chad is talking about may be what you posted (in terms of years). I don‘t think he was saying short term deal, just shorter than Dahlin’s 8yrs.
 
Matt Ress said:
If he could pk well and win some draws he'd be a core guy. We really didn't have any good pk forwards last season. Maybe they address that with personnel and coaching.

E: got me digging a bit. CM looked to be not a great PKer. Maybe I'm reading these wrong but according to SHGA/60 Stillman had the lowest on the team with 7.1 which works out to be about 76% kill rate if we assume 30 PPs per 60 minutes. Not great for your leader and unfortunately he only played 28 seconds a game on the kill with a smaller sample size.
CM - 12.9 SHGA/60 = 57% kill rate
Krebs - 8.2 SHGA/60 = 73% kill rate
Krebbers was the top forward
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Mitts has never really been used as a PKer. He‘s only played 21 and 28mins respectively on the PK the last two years. So we really don’t know how good or bad he would be if given a bigger role.

Those PK stats can’t tell us much for a few reasons, the biggest one being sample size. The goals scored stat is too heavily skewed by a few goals in such small sample sizes. But also you’re focusing on goals scored as opposed to xGA/60 which would tell the story of chance’s surrendered when someone is out there. Honestly, neither is that great in such small samples.

Mitts’ xGA/60 was pretty good the last two seasons (best this past season among forwards). He’s actual goals against/60 was good in 21-22 and not so good this past year.

21-22 —>
xGA/60 - 6.73
GA/60 - 8.65 (3 goals allowed in 21mins)
22-23
xGA/60 -7.00
GA/60 -12.86 (6 goals against in 28mins)

I don’t take anything out the positive or negative here. It’s too small of a sample. But it does show how much things swing with a few goals. It’s also hard to use a GA/60mins stat for sample sizes that are 1/2 or 1/3 of 60mins respectively. A number that can get skewed quite a lot in either direction (good or bad) in a short period of time.

What are you basing us having no good PKing forwards on? Just that the PK was bad? There are a lot of explanations for that that don’t require all the forwards to be bad at PKing. It was a bad PK systemically, goalies struggled, etc.
 
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