Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

[Matt Ress]

Mitts has never really been used as a PKer. He‘s only played 21 and 28mins respectively on the PK the last two years. So we really don’t know how good or bad he would be if given a bigger role.

Those PK stats can’t tell us much for a few reasons, the biggest one being sample size. The goals scored stat is too heavily skewed by a few goals in such small sample sizes. But also you’re focusing on goals scored as opposed to xGA/60 which would tell the story of chance’s surrendered when someone is out there. Honestly, neither is that great in such small samples.

Mitts’ xGA/60 was pretty good the last two seasons (best this past season among forwards). He’s actual goals against/60 was good in 21-22 and not so good this past year.

21-22 —>
xGA/60 - 6.73
GA/60 - 8.65 (3 goals allowed in 21mins)
22-23
xGA/60 -7.00
GA/60 -12.86 (6 goals against in 28mins)

I don’t take anything out the positive or negative stats here. It’s too small of a sample. But it does show how much things swing with a few goals. It’s also hard to use a GA/60mins stat for sample sizes that are 1/2 or 1/3 of 60mins respectively. A number that can get skewed quite a lot in either direction (good or bad) in a short period of time.

What are you basing us having no good PKing forwards on? Just that the PK was bad? There are a lot of explanations for that that don’t require all the forwards to be bad at PKing. It was a bad PK systemically, goalies struggled, etc.

I appreciate your clearer picture.
I just meant statistically, there weren't any good PK forwards based on the numbers I was looking at. You pulled up better numbers though so perhaps some weren't as bad as I thought. Also, the team PK was not good but that doesn't mean individuals are not capable of being good killers.

I've been a big CM fan since he was drafted and it hasn't been easy until recently but I think he, in particular, could make a very good PKer given his gritty style and work ethic. I think he could be a pretty effective 200 ft guy in general (or already is) but I'll happily take in any advanced stats you'd like to toss out.

 

[Djp]

We don't need Girard. He's not the type of defenseman we need.

I know we don’t need him.

im not trading mitts for a 1 yr rental

 

[Fjordy]

I know we don’t need him.

im not trading mitts for a 1 yr rental

I didn't offer to trade him for rental.

 

[VaporTrail]

ivr bern feeling the same that he could be the target by Colorado in a trade for a 2C.

but for what in return? Colorado doesn’t have much. Girard?

Good question...What about Bo Byram ? Does he play shut down, physical defense??

 

[Club]

I still remember bashing this pick the night it was made before even watching highlights of him play because I wanted Liljegren & changing my username to Mittelstadt within that same week like it was yesterday.

But yes I'm very happy with his progression & honestly think, if healthy..

70+ points next season.

The sky is the limit in the near future for this whole entire team with prospects included to be an ABSOLUTE force for years to come. & I'm frothing at the mouth.

 

[Dirty Dog]

i really like Mitts, but he’s the same as Krebs for me. I just don’t know what either of these players are (their roles, long term fit, ceiling, etc.). But I’d like to find out this year as I love their progression.

I wonder if he’d fit on a line with cozens and Quinn? He and cozens can bring out each other’s grit/intensity. He has the playmaking ability to play with both of them as well.

Skinner-Thompson-tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn

 

[joshjull]

I appreciate your clearer picture.
I just meant statistically, there weren't any good PK forwards based on the numbers I was looking at. You pulled up better numbers though so perhaps some weren't as bad as I thought. Also, the team PK was not good but that doesn't mean individuals are not capable of being good killers.

I've been a big CM fan since he was drafted and it hasn't been easy until recently but I think he, in particular, could make a very good PKer given his gritty style and work ethic. I think he could be a pretty effective 200 ft guy in general (or already is) but I'll happily take in any advanced stats you'd like to toss out.

Pointing out the limitations of what that stat (ga/60) can tell us is not “tossing out“ that stat. Its not enough to make the point your making.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Good question...What about Bo Byram ? Does he play shut down, physical defense??

No. If anything he’ll take himself out throwing a hit, though that’s not his fault

 

[Matt Ress]

Pointing out the limitations of what that stat (ga/60) can tell us is not “tossing out“ that stat. Its not enough to make the point your making.

Same page

 

[joshjull]

I mean, I thanked you for correcting me, agreed to the larger point and said I was open to more clarification. Not everything is sarcasm there tough guy.

Yeah, I messed up. I took the bolded from your post to mean you felt I was dismissing or “tossing out” that stat. As opposed to asking me to toss out more information. But I didn’t think you were being sarcastic. I thought it was sincere on your part because I was pretty dismissive of the stat in my posts. So it would have been reasonable for you to assume I was dismissing it outright.

Initially my post was going to be longer but I decided to keep it simple and be more succinct. Just pointing out I wasn’t dismissing it (“tossing it out”) but rather posting its flaws and why I felt that mattered. I wasn’t trying to be a dick or a ”tough guy”. But I can see why you thought I was taking that approach. Sorry about that.

 

[Matt Ress]

Yeah, I messed up. I took the bolded from your post to mean you felt I was dismissing or “tossing out” that stat. As opposed to asking me to toss out more information. But I didn’t think you were being sarcastic. I thought it was sincere on your part because I was pretty dismissive of the stat in my posts. So it would have been reasonable for you to assume I was dismissing it outright.

Initially my post was going to be longer but I decided to keep it simple and be more succinct. Just pointing out I wasn’t dismissing it (“tossing it out”) but rather posting its flaws and why I felt that mattered. I wasn’t trying to be a dick or a ”tough guy”. But I can see why you thought I was taking that approach. Sorry about that.

All good man. I really enjoy a good argument but I think we pretty much agree on everything lol. I generally appreciate your straight forward approach and well thought out arguments. For the most part, I feel that way about a lot of our posters although I know I can come off as crude. Cheers

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Well Damn...

 

[Aladyyn]

Well Damn...

I hope he finds a way to get more shots off but outside of him and Krebs, this team doesn't really have any proper playmakers at forward. Everyone else is looking to shoot first and second.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

I'm hoping he got his first good healthy year under him and comes back next year feeling confident and ready to score some goals. If he can show that he can hurt teams with his shot, it's just going to open up the passing lanes more.

I've been thinking about a Krebs Mitts Greenway line, which would kind of call on Mitts to be the shooter more often.

 

[HOOats]

I'm hoping he got his first good healthy year under him and comes back next year feeling confident and ready to score some goals. If he can show that he can hurt teams with his shot, it's just going to open up the passing lanes more.

I've been thinking about a Krebs Mitts Greenway line, which would kind of call on Mitts to be the shooter more often.

I think you're right that Greenway will ride a lot of shotgun with Mitts. Their pace of play fits more than 12 with 72 or 24. I think Mitts' motor might be infectious for Greenway too.

It's Greenway-Mitts-Quinn for me. Even if he shoots some more, as these stats show Mitts needs to be setting up a true sniper. He could unlock the Quinn breakout everyone is hoping for. Big Rig will stuff in rebounds and cross crease feeds, create space, and protect.

 

[Aladyyn]

Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-Krebs-Peterka

That's my vision for the middle-6 next season

 

[Dubi Doo]

i really like Mitts, but he’s the same as Krebs for me. I just don’t know what either of these players are (their roles, long term fit, ceiling, etc.). But I’d like to find out this year as I love their progression.

I wonder if he’d fit on a line with cozens and Quinn? He and cozens can bring out each other’s grit/intensity. He has the playmaking ability to play with both of them as well.

Skinner-Thompson-tuch
Mitts-Cozens-Quinn

Im hoping he can provide something similar to what Hecht provided, but a better playmaker with more offensive upside.

He can play up and down the line-up. He's versatile enough to play wing or center. You know you're going to get 100% effort and really good two-way play.

His offensive output is the biggest question mark. Will he settle in as a 50-60 point player, or will we see a bit more production? A lot of that may depend on how he's deployed.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-Krebs-Peterka

That's my vision for the middle-6 next season

been saying this since the season ended. 100% agree

 

[Dirty Dog]

Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-Krebs-Peterka

That's my vision for the middle-6 next season

I like the Cozens line! Not in love with pairing krebs and Peterka. I also think we need Savoie in there

 

[Jacob582]

I'm thinking of a Greenway - Mittelstadt - Kane line.

 

[Matt Ress]

I like the Cozens line! Not in love with pairing krebs and Peterka. I also think we need Savoie in there

Green - Savoie - JJP?
Krebs back on the 2nd err 4th line

 

[Ralonzo]

For no good reason decided to clean the DVR and watch Sabres-Ducks, before the "noticeable" Mitts breakout, might have been game 53 on the season or something. It was pretty noticeable how much Mitts was already being a line driver, and some terrific puck retrieval and wall-work. He was doing it more than just the last 20 games - that's just when we started seeing results. Probably getting away from 71. I need more of a sample size here to know what this guy is.

 

[Aladyyn]

For no good reason decided to clean the DVR and watch Sabres-Ducks, before the "noticeable" Mitts breakout, might have been game 53 on the season or something. It was pretty noticeable how much Mitts was already being a line driver, and some terrific puck retrieval and wall-work. He was doing it more than just the last 20 games - that's just when we started seeing results. Probably getting away from 71. I need more of a sample size here to know what this guy is.

It started after Jost got into the lineup and Mitts was moved to wing. Similarly to what Krebs went through, he simplified his game and it got easier for him. Then he carried that over to his center stint as well but long-term I still think he's a winger tbh.

I like the Cozens line! Not in love with pairing krebs and Peterka. I also think we need Savoie in there

Curious to hear your reasoning. I feel like they'd be a great "energy line" and make Greenway match them in that regard

 

[Matt Ress]

I'm not really sold on Mitts being a winger. If he has decent wings, he's an effective forward. We happen to have oodles of wings for decades.
On a side note, I miss La Novas.

I can't, in good conscience, judge his center abilities between Asplund and Olofsson.

 

[Yatzhee]

Mitts is the kind of player the organization isn't going to trade, they'll re-sign him. And rightfully so. He slides up and down the depth chart with ease, they've been patient with him, it's staring to pay dividens. My guess, 4 or 5 yrs @ 5 / 5.5 mil.