Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

[Chainshot]

I find it wild that he's almost doubled his career assist total, but just in this single season.

 

[Chainshot]

I'm not trading Mittelstadt even for a RHD Samuelsson clone. Why? Because KA as other assets to make that happen. There really aren't many players like Mittelstadt is becoming around the league - a truly hard working FW in all zones that is now producing in the 50-60 pt range. That's a real accomplishment considering the rag-tag shape of his line during the season. If Greenway reforms himself and Savoie can come into camp and earn a spot, that line is going to be at least as good as the kid line was this season.

Well said. They have a bevvy of draft picks for starters, without even dipping into the prospect pool with which to make an acquisition.

 

[joshjull]

You could pull the threads from every March and April and see the same stuff about Mittelstadt.

The guy starts the seasons so slow. I have my own narratives why, but I'm not extending a guy based upon him playing two months of a season.

We kept all our first round picks all these years to move off and not pay Mittelstadt. I'm trading him for a defenseman like Samuelsson. A 4-5 million dollar D man like Samuelsson, is more valuable than a 4-5 Mittelstadt when you have guy like Ostlund coming up.

Where is this narrative coming from? @HaNotsri said something similar in the GBU thread.

The previous two seasons he hardly played under Krueger and was out injured the first half of last season. Thats not starting slow. Thats hardly playing or not playing at all.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Where is this narrative coming from? @HaNotsri said something similar in the GBU thread.

The previous two seasons he hardly played under Krueger and was out injured the first half of last season. Thats not starting slow. Thats hardly playing or not playing at all.

That narrative comes from the same spot that he’s often injured comes from.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Where is this narrative coming from? @HaNotsri said something similar in the GBU thread.

The previous two seasons he hardly played under Krueger and was out injured the first half of last season. Thats not starting slow. Thats hardly playing or not playing at all.

Yea, he didn’t even start out slow this season!

 

[Chainshot]

Even if we chunk up his season to first half vs. second half, he's currently riding with the top line as part of his offensive explosion. But his point totals by month, leaving out April have been pretty even by total:

Split

Value

GP

G

A

PTS

+/-

PIM

EV

PP

SH

GW

S

S%

SHFT

TOI

ATOI

Month

October

9​

1​

6​

7​

0​

2​

0​

0​

1​

0​

17​

5.9​

196​

153:08:00​

17:01​

November

14​

4​

2​

6​

-9​

4​

1​

3​

0​

0​

17​

23.5​

283​

210:50:00​

15:04​

December

11​

2​

4​

6​

-1​

2​

1​

1​

0​

0​

15​

13.3​

206​

164:04:00​

14:55​

January

15​

0​

9​

9​

-2​

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

25​

0​

285​

233:46:00​

15:35​

February

10​

2​

7​

9​

4​

0​

2​

0​

0​

1​

15​

13.3​

189​

154:12:00​

15:25​

March

15​

1​

8​

9​

-7​

2​

1​

0​

0​

0​

26​

3.8​

291​

233:18:00​

15:33​

April

5​

3​

5​

8​

6​

10​

3​

0​

0​

0​

12​

25​

114​

88:57:00​

17:47​

His TOI is back up in April which helps, but that's also because he's creating a lot so it's warranted.

(Info from Hockey-Reference scoring splits).

 

[Chainshot]

Also weird to see that the two months he took the most shots he had the worst results.

 

[Dingo44]

Even if we chunk up his season to first half vs. second half, he's currently riding with the top line as part of his offensive explosion. But his point totals by month, leaving out April have been pretty even by total:

Split

Value

GP

G

A

PTS

+/-

PIM

EV

PP

SH

GW

S

S%

SHFT

TOI

ATOI

Month

October

9​

1​

6​

7​

0​

2​

0​

0​

1​

0​

17​

5.9​

196​

153:08:00​

17:01​

November

14​

4​

2​

6​

-9​

4​

1​

3​

0​

0​

17​

23.5​

283​

210:50:00​

15:04​

December

11​

2​

4​

6​

-1​

2​

1​

1​

0​

0​

15​

13.3​

206​

164:04:00​

14:55​

January

15​

0​

9​

9​

-2​

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

25​

0​

285​

233:46:00​

15:35​

February

10​

2​

7​

9​

4​

0​

2​

0​

0​

1​

15​

13.3​

189​

154:12:00​

15:25​

March

15​

1​

8​

9​

-7​

2​

1​

0​

0​

0​

26​

3.8​

291​

233:18:00​

15:33​

April

5​

3​

5​

8​

6​

10​

3​

0​

0​

0​

12​

25​

114​

88:57:00​

17:47​

His TOI is back up in April which helps, but that's also because he's creating a lot so it's warranted.

(Info from Hockey-Reference scoring splits).

Olofsson just has to go. Maybe he has value as a 26 goal scorer. Find the most old school GM who has never even heard of analytics and see what you can get. I'll take anything positive.

 

[debaser66]

You could pull the threads from every March and April and see the same stuff about Mittelstadt.

The guy starts the seasons so slow. I have my own narratives why, but I'm not extending a guy based upon him playing two months of a season.

We kept all our first round picks all these years to move off and not pay Mittelstadt. I'm trading him for a defenseman like Samuelsson. A 4-5 million dollar D man like Samuelsson, is more valuable than a 4-5 Mittelstadt when you have guy like Ostlund coming up.

there is a difference if you do it in meaningless games or under pressure, its definitely not the same.

Ostlund is like 3 years away, what you do next year?

I rather keep a player like that to see what he can do in the playoffs next year

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Brandon Saad. He’ll get bridge deals until he’s a ufa then leave as a free agent to try to be a 1b center on a perennial #9 on a fat contract.

 

[Chainshot]

Olofsson just has to go. Maybe he has value as a 26 goal scorer. Find the most old school GM who has never even heard of analytics and see what you can get. I'll take anything positive.

Even if there is one out there who is a bit clued in on the analytic side, a goal scoring specialist is going to have some value though it's probably not going to be what some think. There are also some teams that will still be in the deep end of their long-term build who might want to take on a player who can give them some PP goals and maybe at the deadline give them someone to flip for another pick to a contender looking for a specialist.

And not for nothing, but part of Vic's hot month of January was how Jost and Mittlestadt were getting him the puck in position to score (Casey had an assist on 7 of Vic's 10 January goals).

 

[Dingo44]

Even if there is one out there who is a bit clued in on the analytic side, a goal scoring specialist is going to have some value though it's probably not going to be what some think. There are also some teams that will still be in the deep end of their long-term build who might want to take on a player who can give them some PP goals and maybe at the deadline give them someone to flip for another pick to a contender looking for a specialist.

And not for nothing, but part of Vic's hot month of January was how Jost and Mittlestadt were getting him the puck in position to score (Casey had an assist on 7 of Vic's 10 January goals).

I don't want to hijack the Mittlestadt thread so I posted my response in the Roster thread.

 

[HaNotsri]

Where is this narrative coming from? @HaNotsri said something similar in the GBU thread.

The previous two seasons he hardly played under Krueger and was out injured the first half of last season. Thats not starting slow. Thats hardly playing or not playing at all.

So this is entirely memory based:

He came in late his first season and looked great on the third line the few games he played, then looked lackluster to start the next season

The Krueger year he played almost at this level during the end when Granato took over. Didn't look as sharp during the pre-season after, then injuries followed.

This year he was snake bitten and then ended up with Olofsson as an anchor until the final push of the season when he looks like he is breaking out yet again.

I'm a huge Mitts fan but so far he has been a different player at the beginning of every seadon. Some of it is coaches and bad luck but I really hope we get the good Mitts from the get go next season.

 

[joshjull]

So this is entirely memory based:

He came in late his first season and looked great on the third line the few games he played, then looked lackluster to start the next season

The Krueger year he played almost at this level during the end when Granato took over. Didn't look as sharp during the pre-season after, then injuries followed.

This year he was snake bitten and then ended up with Olofsson as an anchor until the final push of the season when he looks like he is breaking out yet again.

I'm a huge Mitts fan but so far he has been a different player at the beginning of every seadon. Some of it is coaches and bad luck but I really hope we get the good Mitts from the get go next season.

Nothing you posted makes the argument you’re trying to make.

If he has a pattern of being one player at the beginning of an NHL season and ending it a different one (to paraphrase your argument). Then you should be able to show several seasons where thats the case. But you didn’t.

You bring up things like the 6gms he played after signing his ELC or a preseason a few years later. Neither has any relevance to how he plays over the course of a full NHL regular season.

This season isn’t an example of your argument either. He started off strong in October (7pts in 9gms) and was roughly that player for the bulk of the season (roughly 2/3rds) with two outliers mixed in. His bad stretch with VO (with no help before Jost) and the great stretch now with the top line.

The only season he was theoretically ”a different player” to start the year than he was to end it was the Covid shortened season. But the reason for the differences was fairly obvious. Under Krueger Mitts only played 13 of 28gms as a bottom 6 winger with little to no PP ice time. Under Donny he played 28 of 28gms primarily as an all situations center getting a ton of PP time on the top unit.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[toddkaz]

So this is entirely memory based:

He came in late his first season and looked great on the third line the few games he played, then looked lackluster to start the next season

The Krueger year he played almost at this level during the end when Granato took over. Didn't look as sharp during the pre-season after, then injuries followed.

This year he was snake bitten and then ended up with Olofsson as an anchor until the final push of the season when he looks like he is breaking out yet again.

I'm a huge Mitts fan but so far he has been a different player at the beginning of every seadon. Some of it is coaches and bad luck but I really hope we get the good Mitts from the get go next season.

One thing that is noticeable is he is able to keep up with the speed of the NHL game. He is getting to the point where he is a step ahead of the play where before he was going east-west making bad passes and trying to figure things out.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Olofsson just has to go. Maybe he has value as a 26 goal scorer. Find the most old school GM who has never even heard of analytics and see what you can get. I'll take anything positive.

I feel like the art of the deal is to find a trade partner that is convinced they can elevate his play. The floor is a one dimensional 20+ goal scorer. That has value in its own.

The Sabres don’t really have the opportunity to give Olofsson and the system is really not a good fit for him. There are teams out there that can lock Olofsson into a PP1 role and also use him on a top 9 line, not to mention play a system that would allow him to be more effective.

Anaheim, Chicago, Arizona, Columbus, Minnesota, Nashville, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Winnipeg, and Vancouver are all teams I think he would fit on.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Do we have now Mittelstadt we drafted?

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Petey and Rivs think the Sabres should trade Mittelstadt and bring in Boone Jenner... I get the idea to improve the PK but is our PK troubles because of the players or the coaching/system?

I am not going to say Mitts is untouchable, if someone offers the farm for him then yes you can move him. I'll listen to offers but in no way would I be actively trying to move him.

 

[Uberpecker]

Mitts has been the 1C to close out the season and has looked the part.
I wouldn't mind keeping him there at the start of next season and let Tage center a dynamite 1b line with Cozens.

 

[Chainshot]

Petey and Rivs think the Sabres should trade Mittelstadt and bring in Boone Jenner... I get the idea to improve the PK but is our PK troubles because of the players or the coaching/system?

I am not going to say Mitts is untouchable, if someone offers the farm for him then yes you can move him. I'll listen to offers but in no way would I be actively trying to move him.

They have banged that Boone Jenner drum all year.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

They have banged that Boone Jenner drum all year.

Indeed they have.

Also gonna be hard to get Donny on board with moving on from Mittelstadt

 

[tsujimoto74]

Olofsson just has to go. Maybe he has value as a 26 goal scorer. Find the most old school GM who has never even heard of analytics and see what you can get. I'll take anything positive.

I'm certain Olofsson will have value to at least a few teams. Even if the GM is fully aware that all he's really good for is rifling shots from the right side of the PP, that's still worth something if you need a guy who can do that on your PP.

 

[Dingo44]

I'm certain Olofsson will have value to at least a few teams. Even if the GM is fully aware that all he's really good for is rifling shots from the right side of the PP, that's still worth something if you need a guy who can do that on your PP.

Definitely. He's at 27 goals after last night and I noted that he would be the leading goal scorer on four teams and tied for the lead on a fifth. Definitely has value.