Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[SherVaughn30]

Or Buffalo. Or Ottawa. Or Anaheim. Teams who sucked for years and thought they were ready to compete only to still suck.

Life as a Caps fan maybe isn’t as peachy as it was a few years ago but in the grand scheme of things we’ve had it pretty great. We could be the Wizards or the Commanders.

Leave Commanders out of it. With new ownership, they have the #2 pick in the draft, and will either draft the top QB or WR in the draft!

 

[Roshi]

Yeah Orpik got a lot of hate, but was a really solid guy and was an important guy to have in the locker room while his on ice performance wasnt on the level of his contract he probably made up for a lot of that outside the ice. I agree Wilson can be that kind of guy hopefully in the future to make up for what he most likely wont bring on the ice in a few years.

Still when Oshie signed his contract Caps was competetive and a contender he also performed up to his contract for like the first 4 years. Wilson signed when Caps arent a contender any more, but might be in a few years if things go well in development, free agents from the cap space and the draft. So Wilson's best years on that contract look like they will be while the Caps arent a contender.

Still it looks like Caps can turn things around faster than expected. Younger guys are playing well and a lot of players on their way to the Capitals. With the right development they have a solid foundation. We have also seen teams can compete without superstars, but solid lines (Vegas and Seattle).

Actually Oshie is a very very good comparable when looking closer.

Oshie when he signed his contract was seen as a good complimentary top6 piece.

Oshie was
30 when he signed for 8 years @ 5,5 m --> would carry over until he is 38
had career PPG 0,7
Was signed for 7,3% of the total cap hit

Wilson is
30 when his new contract kick in for 7 years @ 6,5m --> will carry over until he is 37
last 7 seasons (when not in 4th line plug role) has PPG 0,6
Is signed for 7,4% of expected total cap hit

Both has intangibles. Both signed at time we are expecting cap to increase.
Wilson plays PK and has physical edge for the difference of 0,1 in PPG. Also havent spend much time on PP until this year.
And Willys new contract is one year shorter.
Both have same protection with trade/NMC clauses.

All in all, very much a like. Id even go far enough to say Wilsons contract is better when looking at whole picture..

So its easy to see same people who didnt like Oshies contract to negate Wilsons contract aswell, I suppose, because its basically the same contract for a guy of same role.

 

[trick9]

Yes, but only at 1/2 max his cap hit!

That's optimistic.

I don't think he's in the NHL to start the next season. Either he doesn't even get an NHL contract after getting bought out or then he loses the line-up (PTO?) battle at the training camp and bolts back home.

 

[Pigskin]

Reading that thread in the Rumours main boards about Vancouver wanting a 2C etc.

Losing Strome would hurt a lot right now, and I don't know a lot about their high end prospects other than what I can read in stats. Lekkerimaki or Willander and a pick for Strome? Would they even entertain that? Strome is cost controlled and playing great.

I think I would, and try to get a C for now in FA at season's end.
Strome to me is a high end 2C on a cup contender and by the time we are ready to be that, he won't be any more.

 

[Kuz]

All in all, very much a like. Id even go far enough to say Wilsons contract is better when looking at whole picture..

So its easy to see same people who didnt like Oshies contract to negate Wilsons contract aswell, I suppose, because its basically the same contract for a guy of same role.

The one big difference that I mentioned, but you dont comment on is the state of the Capitals. When they signed Oshie they where contentenders and Oshie was expected to be a contributor while Caps where contending. They needed Oshie to win and the only reason to trade him at that time was for an upgrade. According to moneypuck Caps have a 12,8 % chance to make it this year and it doesnt look better next year with Ovi, Oshie, Kuemper, Carlson, Jensen and Dowd one year older.

While Wilson looks like he will have his next years while Caps is not a top contender and the question is if he will be worth his contract when Washington is in a position to contend again. So there are definetely a question if the Caps would have been a better team in a few years with a player who might fit better with their timeline. Then you can discuss if what he brings outside the ice will make up for it and I believe it might.

Look at Backstrom professional and loved by all Caps fans. Still a lot where happy with the cap that opened up when he went on LTIR as he wasnt delievering on ice as he once was.

 

[Roshi]

The one big difference that I mentioned, but you dont comment on is the state of the Capitals. When they signed Oshie they where contentenders and Oshie was expected to be a contributor while Caps where contending. They needed Oshie to win and the only reason to trade him at that time was for an upgrade. According to moneypuck Caps have a 12,8 % chance to make it this year and it doesnt look better next year with Ovi, Oshie, Kuemper, Carlson, Jensen and Dowd one year older.

While Wilson looks like he will have his next years while Caps is not a top contender and the question is if he will be worth his contract when Washington is in a position to contend again. So there are definetely a question if the Caps would have been a better team in a few years with a player who might fit better with their timeline. Then you can discuss if what he brings outside the ice will make up for it and I believe it might.

Look at Backstrom professional and loved by all Caps fans. Still a lot where happy with the cap that opened up when he went on LTIR as he wasnt delievering on ice as he once was.

Yeah i actually thought about addressing this too but forgot to type it down.

I think Wilsons role to be the "franchise-face" for the young players coming up will balance with Oshies role on a "more cup invested" team. Oshie was sorts of a "winning piece" when signed, Wilson is more of a "cultural piece" today. Its loyalty, its example, its reminder of the days of success. You need continuity and you need competitiveness and having Wilson is checks a lot of boxes that is important for a retool/rebuild. Scorched earth tactics rarely go down like a hollywood-movie.

Backstrom too, why not, earned his contract imo. Like everyone else, I also saw the huge risks that contract had. He is not really comparable to Wilson though, Backy was supposed to be our 1C. Realistic or not. Not a complementary top6 player.

On addition to that, he was decent for 2/5 years of his contract and has now basically been LTIRed for 1,5 years now and havent been tieing our hands down as much as people want to weight on it. I dont see it as "franchise crushing" as many do. If we were up for real chance to contend, we could use his LTIR space immediately to trade big. Same will likely be the case with Wilson, if his last years look as bad as Nickys.

 

[twabby]

Oshie was a significantly better player than Wilson when their new contracts were to kick in:

And as mentioned earlier the trajectory of the team is way different now than in 2017 when the Capitals were arguably a bounce or two away from winning it all vs. what they are now. I don't think the two situations are alike at all.

I also don't think the Orpik situation is similar either because he was a free agent and not a trade chip that could return a massive haul.

 

[g00n]

You fancy stat, anti-toughness guys have been shitting on TW since he was drafted and he's proven you wrong every single year.

One day he'll finally get too old and you'll all be like "atodaso" and the rest of us will simply have a lot of great memories from watching him play for many years.

So maybe lighten up and enjoy the ride.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Oshie was a significantly better player than Wilson when their new contracts were to kick in:

View attachment 800167

View attachment 800168

And as mentioned earlier the trajectory of the team is way different now than in 2017 when the Capitals were arguably a bounce or two away from winning it all vs. what they are now. I don't think the two situations are alike at all.

I also don't think the Orpik situation is similar either because he was a free agent and not a trade chip that could return a massive haul.

Your definition of a 'better player' is obviously subjective and biased and the team context is totally different when the contracts kick in.

Next straw please.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You fancy stat, anti-toughness guys have been shitting on TW since he was drafted and he's proven you wrong every single year.

One day he'll finally get too old and you'll all be like "atodaso" and the rest of us will simply have a lot of great memories from watching him play for many years.

So maybe lighten up and enjoy the ride.

Totally this….literally since the guy was a rook.

 

[Roshi]

Oshie was a significantly better player than Wilson when their new contracts were to kick in:

View attachment 800167

View attachment 800168

And as mentioned earlier the trajectory of the team is way different now than in 2017 when the Capitals were arguably a bounce or two away from winning it all vs. what they are now. I don't think the two situations are alike at all.

I also don't think the Orpik situation is similar either because he was a free agent and not a trade chip that could return a massive haul.

Well thats again just throwing it out there with no thought of why Oshies stats looked way better. Id say the same fact you justify Oshies contract is the reason for this statistical variance.

Dont you think Oshie benefitted playing in a contender in the same line as 2017 version of Ovie, Backy and Carlson, compared to the 2023 versions of them that Wilson has?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Leave Commanders out of it. With new ownership, they have the #2 pick in the draft, and will either draft the top QB or WR in the draft!

The Commies need to be good for about 15 straight years to match what the Capitals have given us. I have actual hope for them now for the first time since 2012 but they still have to prove it! Baby steps first: I just want them to be watchable and I don't want to be looking at mock drafts before Thanksgiving.

You fancy stat, anti-toughness guys have been shitting on TW since he was drafted and he's proven you wrong every single year.

One day he'll finally get too old and you'll all be like "atodaso" and the rest of us will simply have a lot of great memories from watching him play for many years.

So maybe lighten up and enjoy the ride.

100%. The Tom Wilson and Brooks Oprik hate fest is what soured me on some of the local bloggers. It's why I started calling him No Skill Willy. Tom is such a unique player and has been a big part of their identity for years. Love having him on the team and there are very few players I would trade him for.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Sounds like Oshie will be back in the lineup on Thursday. Here is how I would roll:

Ovi-Strome-Patches
Protas-McMichael-Mantha
Oshie-Lapierre-Wilson
Beck-Dowd-NAK

Ship Cosmonaut Kuzy to the ISS and be done with him. As sad it is to admit because I absolutely loved watching him play hockey and without him we don't win a Cup but I'd be fine if I never saw Kuznetsov wear a Caps jersey again. When Milano is back shift Protas to 3C and put Milano with McMike and Mantha. Send Lapierre back to Hershey to get on the McMichael and Protas development plan.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Well thats again just throwing it out there with no thought of why Oshies stats looked way better. Id say the same fact you justify Oshies contract is the reason for this statistical variance.

Dont you think Oshie benefitted playing in a contender in the same line as 2017 version of Ovie, Backy and Carlson, compared to the 2023 versions of them that Wilson has?

Obviously any player is going to look better on the 2017 Capitals than on the 2023 Capitals.

Advanced stats have not solved that puzzle. According to some advanced stats, Alex Ovechkin was a significantly better player in 2016 than he was in 2009.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Sounds like Oshie will be back in the lineup on Thursday. Here is how I would roll:

Ovi-Strome-Patches
Protas-McMichael-Mantha
Oshie-Lapierre-Wilson
Beck-Dowd-NAK

Ship Cosmonaut Kuzy to the ISS and be done with him. As sad it is to admit because I absolutely loved watching him play hockey and without him we don't win a Cup but I'd be fine if I never saw Kuznetsov wear a Caps jersey again. When Milano is back shift Protas to 3C and put Milano with McMike and Mantha. Send Lapierre back to Hershey to get on the McMichael and Protas development plan.

I would definitely not alert anyone if I saw Tonya Harding waiting for Kuzy in the Kettler parking lot.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Sounds like Oshie will be back in the lineup on Thursday. Here is how I would roll:

Ovi-Strome-Patches
Protas-McMichael-Mantha
Oshie-Lapierre-Wilson
Beck-Dowd-NAK

Ship Cosmonaut Kuzy to the ISS and be done with him. As sad it is to admit because I absolutely loved watching him play hockey and without him we don't win a Cup but I'd be fine if I never saw Kuznetsov wear a Caps jersey again. When Milano is back shift Protas to 3C and put Milano with McMike and Mantha. Send Lapierre back to Hershey to get on the McMichael and Protas development plan.

 

[um]

Actually Oshie is a very very good comparable when looking closer.

Oshie when he signed his contract was seen as a good complimentary top6 piece.

Oshie was
30 when he signed for 8 years @ 5,5 m --> would carry over until he is 38
had career PPG 0,7
Was signed for 7,3% of the total cap hit

Wilson is
30 when his new contract kick in for 7 years @ 6,5m --> will carry over until he is 37
last 7 seasons (when not in 4th line plug role) has PPG 0,6
Is signed for 7,4% of expected total cap hit

Both has intangibles. Both signed at time we are expecting cap to increase.
Wilson plays PK and has physical edge for the difference of 0,1 in PPG. Also havent spend much time on PP until this year.
And Willys new contract is one year shorter.
Both have same protection with trade/NMC clauses.

All in all, very much a like. Id even go far enough to say Wilsons contract is better when looking at whole picture..

So its easy to see same people who didnt like Oshies contract to negate Wilsons contract aswell, I suppose, because its basically the same contract for a guy of same role.

The biggest difference is we gave Oshie term to lower the Cap hit and compete for a cup, which we got. Now we're not really competing for a cup, this is a retooling or rebuilding time.

Instead of competing in Wilson's early 30s, like we were with Oshie, we'll probably be rebuilding. I suppose there is still some usefulness to keeping Wilson around for that, but it may bite us in the ass when we start competing again.

I base this on how power forwards age, maybe Wilson can defy that trend.

I just preferred a shorter term contract for Wilson, I didn't need him traded.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Don't have good stats on him since the RTSS data didn't start until 2008, so no opinion on his play. Though he was a huge shithead (in a bad way).

Just curious if you actually ever saw Hunter play? When I use the word "saw" I'm referring to in person at a game, not watching via TV or videos.

 

[um]

Your definition of a 'better player' is obviously subjective and biased and the team context is totally different when the contracts kick in.

Next straw please.

Do people really think Wilson is as good as Oshie was?

ya'll forgot about TJ Sochi.

 

[twabby]

I'm just offering an opinion of how I'd make the team better, please don't take it as a personal insult to yourself or to Wilson himself when I say I would have liked him to be traded. Most people are saying GMBM has done all he could and l'm simply disagreeing with that.

I've come back around on the Orpik contract because his WAR stats actually painted a better picture of him than his on-ice stats did, and they also won a Stanley Cup with him. If Wilson helps lead the Capitals to another Cup then you better believe I'll come back and say I was wrong. But until then I'm afraid I'll have to stick to my guns.

Just curious if you actually ever saw Hunter play? When I use the word "saw" I'm referring to in person at a game, not watching via TV or videos.

Absolutely not, I'd never subject myself to that!

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I'm just offering an opinion of how I'd make the team better, please don't take it as a personal insult to yourself or to Wilson himself when I say I would have liked him to be traded. Most people are saying GMBM has done all he could and l'm simply disagreeing with that.

I've come back around on the Orpik contract because his WAR stats actually painted a better picture of him than his on-ice stats did, and they also won a Stanley Cup with him. If Wilson helps lead the Capitals to another Cup then you better believe I'll come back and say I was wrong. But until then I'm afraid I'll have to stick to my guns.


Absolutely not, I'd never subject myself to that!

Yeah, I kinda of thought that.

You're much more knowledgeable about hockey than I am when it comes to the statistics/charts etc.. those Rorshach/Jackson Pollock images that are often posted and what's found in three ring binders. But as they say, "People use statistics as a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than illumination".

But is there a column for heart or competitiveness?

You can put me in the Alan May camp which favors the eye test!

And I loved Hunter and the way he played. His hit on Pierre Turgeon was inexcusable, but it did not define him or his time with the Capitals and why his sweater hangs from the rafters.

 

[g00n]

Totally this….literally since the guy was a rook.

He's just a face puncher who can't score! (He starts scoring)
He'll never hit double digit goals (14G after bump in ice time)
That's clearly his ceiling, he'll never be a 20G guy (has scored at a 20G or higher pace since then)
Sure but he's not really a great player (makes All Star team)
Ok that's once. It was a fluke (does it again)
Nevermind all that, he's not worth keeping until he leads the team to ANOTHER Cup....


Can't win.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do people really think Wilson is as good as Oshie was?

ya'll forgot about TJ Sochi.

It’s not the point of the convo but no.

Oshie is the more skilled guy, but “good” is subjective. Tom is a unicorn.

Yeah, I kinda of thought that.

You're much more knowledgeable about hockey than I am when it comes to the statistics/charts etc.. those Rorshach/Jackson Pollock images that are often posted and what's found in three ring binders. But as they say, "People use statistics as a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than illumination".

But is there a column for heart or competitiveness?

You can put me in the Alan May camp which favors the eye test!

And I loved Hunter and the way he played. His hit on Pierre Turgeon was inexcusable, but it did not define him or his time with the Capitals and why his sweater hangs from the rafters.

He doesn’t believe in intangibles…or the eye test.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Do people really think Wilson is as good as Oshie was?

ya'll forgot about TJ Sochi.

Do people not know how to compare apples to oranges?

 

[um]

It’s not the point of the convo but no.

Oshie is the more skilled guy, but “good” is subjective. Tom is a unicorn.

Very Interesting.

Oshie has had some great seasons and very very clutch playoffs. Wilson hasn't had those kind of results... yet.

With that said Wilsons Unicorn per 60 is very impressive.

Do people not know how to compare apples to oranges?

Oranges>>>Apples

Unless it's honeycrisp, than just one >.

In this case we're comparing Right Wingers to Right Wingers.