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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition
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$6.5m is only mid-range these days. On a good team, he would be good value. TW could throw his body around, but he'd end up suspended for 20 games. We all know that. If we had meaningful end of season games, he might be more inclined to run the gauntlet.
TW is our future C. I'm fine with him and his contract. We might even get a few fun years when Leonard arrives. The two of them won't be fun to play against.
TW is our future C. I'm fine with him and his contract. We might even get a few fun years when Leonard arrives. The two of them won't be fun to play against.
g00n
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trick9
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Fun fact:
Troy Brouwer's ~3.66m AAV contract signed back in 2012 took 5.69% of the cap.
Tom Wilson's new contract is 7.38% of the cap next season assuming the cap is at 88m.
- Feb 18, 2018
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Langway
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Zegras in play according to Seravalli. That's the sort of younger upside play I'd put the first rounder in play for. Maybe not a true two-way center but certainly a skill upgrade and still quite young at 22. He's off to a poor start this year and may not be a Verbeek style player. But for a team like the Caps that's rather skill deficient and has a lot of cap space I'd take the gamble.
With an eye on the future.. Do you guys think something could be built around a trade involving Dylan Strome and Bowen Byram? Caps would obviously have to add but maybe TVR at 50% and their pick of Iorio, Chesley, Alexeyev, Cristall or Lapierre and a pick?
Avs would still have Teows, Makar, Girard and Mason in their top-4 and Strome would finally give them a long term 1-2 punch up top. Strome’s contract is capfriendly and by taking something back would fit under the cap.
Byram would be Caps future 1D, if not right away. He fits the age group a lot better of the next gen taking over after Ovie & co.
Constructive feedback appreciated.
Avs would still have Teows, Makar, Girard and Mason in their top-4 and Strome would finally give them a long term 1-2 punch up top. Strome’s contract is capfriendly and by taking something back would fit under the cap.
Byram would be Caps future 1D, if not right away. He fits the age group a lot better of the next gen taking over after Ovie & co.
Constructive feedback appreciated.
Chokingdogs
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I don't think Wilson's future cap hit is much of a concern, even though I don't think it's a good contract.
I am somewhat concerned about his play. This and next couple of years is the time when he should be at his absolute best. It's not that he is having a bad season but it's certainly not great. His defensive play has been poor and he is not providing much of a boost to his linemates. The reality is that he is likely to be the best player on his line for the next while and to this point it's not a role that he has thrived in.
I am somewhat concerned about his play. This and next couple of years is the time when he should be at his absolute best. It's not that he is having a bad season but it's certainly not great. His defensive play has been poor and he is not providing much of a boost to his linemates. The reality is that he is likely to be the best player on his line for the next while and to this point it's not a role that he has thrived in.
twabby
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Don't have good stats on him since the RTSS data didn't start until 2008, so no opinion on his play. Though he was a huge shithead (in a bad way).
Chokingdogs
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I see….now I understand.
No thanks. The Caps need more top six forwards, not fewer. Strome is one of the last guys on this team I’d trade given his contract and production.
Byram also hasn’t been able to stay healthy and his game is too similar to Sandin for it to make much sense. His value is higher than Strome’s but I don’t think he makes sense for this roster.
Lets not be in denial about what the Caps are. They stank! Making the playoffs is our max potential.
Caps should be retooling and competing this year should not take priority over obtaining high potential young players like Byram.
Although I don't know much about Byrams game this year, I see he's injured again. I wonder what the fancy stats say.
Also Sandin shouldn't be getting the way of acquiring good defencemen. That's like us not getting a RW because of Mantha. Sandin is not him.
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Langway
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The cost certainty of Strome @ $5M until 2028 should be quite valuable in a landscape that will quickly become inflated due to cap rises. I like Byram quite a bit when healthy but overall an unlikely idea mostly since their center depth is otherwise so weak.
I'm also not sure Bear has shown enough to follow through on any plan to dump TVR/Jensen and think they will be ahead of the game as a result. It's just been a few games but he doesn't seem physical or big enough to be any more sturdy than those two (and he doesn't make up for it offensively). In sum, still puzzling add other than being an upgrade over Alexeyev (and perhaps Edmundson, even if they probably won't sit him).
I'm also not sure Bear has shown enough to follow through on any plan to dump TVR/Jensen and think they will be ahead of the game as a result. It's just been a few games but he doesn't seem physical or big enough to be any more sturdy than those two (and he doesn't make up for it offensively). In sum, still puzzling add other than being an upgrade over Alexeyev (and perhaps Edmundson, even if they probably won't sit him).
Re: Tom Wilson
The man might end up leading the team in goals at seasons end, whilst also being physical, intimidating/enforcing, pking and from all accounts great in the room.
Meanwhile he is like the 5-6th highest paid player on the team.
That's a great contract right now. Maybe not in 5 years but who cares.
The man might end up leading the team in goals at seasons end, whilst also being physical, intimidating/enforcing, pking and from all accounts great in the room.
Meanwhile he is like the 5-6th highest paid player on the team.
That's a great contract right now. Maybe not in 5 years but who cares.
6,5 isnt actually that crazy for a top6 complimentary guy. Where are you basing this? Because some other guy is earning less? Look around and this is what you pay for your core players. Especially considering cap is going up. There is a lot of those guys in the league that make more with less weight, and there will be more and more before Willys contract gets halfway through.
5-7 is pretty normal for a complementary top6 core winger. Wilson brings more than just his points. Admit it or not. He is our next captain, and for a good reason.
And sure, the last couple years will be overpaid. But thats the cost to get it done. Every team needs to make those compromises. Its a lot of years between now and then, and if he completely falls out of the cliff theres always the LTIR-route to round some of it.
Point totals also dont mean a lot for this team right now. It would be pretty amazing for Wilson to score at his career high when the whole team around is struggling with offence. Its a team issue right now, not a Tom Wilson issue.
twabby
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If he hasn't already, I'm afraid he's going to fall off from top 6 complementary guy to bottom 6 complementary guy rather quickly based on his recent play and his comparables. This is the age where players typically start falling off and when they do there isn't really a recovery in general.
The cap is probably going up but is $6.5 million really going to be worth it for a 3rd/4th liner even if the cap was $100 million? Doubtful. I'd sooner look for the next NAK or Malenstyn at league minimum in those roles and then overpay when necessary for true top end talent.
And this of course ignores the type of player he could return in a trade which would be a blue chip star player.
This isn't a good hill to die on. I'm sure there's some stat you'll use to justify why NAK should replace Wilson, but you've gone far beyond the practical use of the statistics you're touting.
SecretaryofDefense5
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Langway
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I disagree with a thumbs down since for some reason there is not an option. Unless I'm a n00b and showing my age and there is.
I appreciate your statistical approach a lot. But what i find a little bothering, is that you value the results just based on the numbers and dont really do your own thinking where and why the numbers come from.
NAK is succesful in his role but to say he could do what Wilson can just based on his advanced stats on his current role is reaching to the moon. Phillips is one of your favourites because his advanced stats look nice in a protected and limited role, but we have seen what that means for his team in actual production --> nothing. So by the actual numbers shouldnt increasing his ice time likely means just more of nothing.
Also cap space is a game of its own. Our cap structure allows us to pay Wilson the market price, well knowing it likely ends up being overpaid at some point. They wanted to reward the player, show they appreciate him and they want to keep him for the rest of his career. What kind of message lowballing him under the market price sends to him and for the team and for anyone in the organization from top to bottom. Someone we are looking to take over as a captain and rolemodel for the team, and we lowball that guy. Wilson will be the guy who young players look up to, when Ovechkin and co. finally retires. He will be the last guy left from that cup winning team. And his all class, all loyalty, all professional outside the ice too. You can always say you can get a player like that cheaper from the FA, but its not the same at all. More often than not, that guy wont be there for the right reasons.
And then there is the concept of "driving games". What makes a player complimentary, or driving force. Wilson doesnt have the hands of Marner or shot of Matthews, he doesnt make zone entries like MacKinnon does. But when he is on his game, he is a force. He is example of the concept 'hard to play against' that Caps has been trying to build for this core and model their long-term gameplan. So even if he falls out as expected, he still brings something.
I compare this contract for Caps for Orpik & Oshie. Both were "overpayments", but im happy we got those done. Everyone hated Orpik and his contract, but that one bad signing is still one of the biggest reasons we ever got over the second round. Oshie was and still is all good feels heart&soul, and we got a lot of good years out of him.
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Yeah Orpik got a lot of hate, but was a really solid guy and was an important guy to have in the locker room while his on ice performance wasnt on the level of his contract he probably made up for a lot of that outside the ice. I agree Wilson can be that kind of guy hopefully in the future to make up for what he most likely wont bring on the ice in a few years.
Still when Oshie signed his contract Caps was competetive and a contender he also performed up to his contract for like the first 4 years. Wilson signed when Caps arent a contender any more, but might be in a few years if things go well in development, free agents from the cap space and the draft. So Wilson's best years on that contract look like they will be while the Caps arent a contender.
Still it looks like Caps can turn things around faster than expected. Younger guys are playing well and a lot of players on their way to the Capitals. With the right development they have a solid foundation. We have also seen teams can compete without superstars, but solid lines (Vegas and Seattle).
SherVaughn30
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