Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[g00n]

Very Interesting.

Oshie has had some great seasons and very clutch playoffs. Wilson hasn't had those kind of results... yet.


Oranges>>>Apples

Unless it's honeycrisp, than just one >.

In this case we're comparing Right Wingers to Right Wingers.

What? He was great in the Cup run. 5G (all ES) and 10 assists. He could've had even more if he hadn't gotten suspended. The following year he had 3g 2a in 7 games.

How soon people forget.

 

[um]

What? He was great in the Cup run. 5G (all ES) and 10 assists. He could've had even more if he hadn't gotten suspended. The following year he had 3g 2a in 7 games.

How soon people forget.

Huh? I didn't say Wilson wasn't great. I said Oshie is the better player.

Oshie has been a playoff beast for the Caps. 72 games 29 goals 59 points.

One of the few Caps in the Ovie era to get better in the playoffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Huh? I didn't say Wilson wasn't great. I said Oshie was better.

Oshie has been a playoff beast for the Caps. 72 games 29 goals 59 points.

One of the few Caps in the Ovie era to get better in the playoffs.

Well you did say “Oshie has had some great seasons and very very clutch playoffs. Wilson hasn't had those kind of results... yet.”

 

[um]

Well you did say “Oshie has had some great seasons and very very clutch playoffs. Wilson hasn't had those kind of results... yet.”

How true it is.

It's not entirely Wilson's fault as he broke out in the 2017-18 season. Oshie got his peak during the Caps President Cup years.

It doesn't make Wilson the better player though.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How true it is.

It's not entirely Wilson's fault as he broke out in the 2017-18 season. Oshie got his peak during the Caps President Cup years.

It doesn't make Wilson the better player though.

Again, better is subjective. They bring different things. Purely from a production standpoint, give Wilson elite line mates today and his production would be great.

 

[um]

Again, better is subjective. They bring different things. Purely from a production standpoint, give Wilson elite line mates today and his production would be great.

Agree to disagree I guess. I am a huge Oshie fan boy.

I am glad we have had them both!

 

[twabby]

Yeah, I kinda of thought that.

You're much more knowledgeable about hockey than I am when it comes to the statistics/charts etc.. those Rorshach/Jackson Pollock images that are often posted and what's found in three ring binders. But as they say, "People use statistics as a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than illumination".

But is there a column for heart or competitiveness?

You can put me in the Alan May camp which favors the eye test!

And I loved Hunter and the way he played. His hit on Pierre Turgeon was inexcusable, but it did not define him or his time with the Capitals and why his sweater hangs from the rafters.

Until heart and competitiveness are how hockey games are judged rather than looking at which team scored more goals, I'm afraid I don't really care about heart and competitiveness by themselves. I care about a player's overall impact on goal differential.

Do those attributes impact how effective a player is at driving goal differential? I'm sure they do. But the fact is over the last two seasons the overall Tom Wilson package, which includes his heart and competitiveness, has been quite bad at driving goal differential.

It's just as valid as me saying that Michael Stone (the other Stone) is good because he shoots the puck hard. I mean he certainly does shoot the puck hard, but is he any good?

 

[HTFN]

Until heart and competitiveness are how hockey games are judged rather than looking at which team scored more goals, I'm afraid I don't really care about heart and competitiveness by themselves. I care about a player's overall impact on goal differential.

Do those attributes impact how effective a player is at driving goal differential? I'm sure they do. But the fact is over the last two seasons the overall Tom Wilson package, which includes his heart and competitiveness, has been quite bad at driving goal differential.

It's just as valid as me saying that Michael Stone (the other Stone) is good because he shoots the puck hard. I mean he certainly does shoot the puck hard, but is he any good?

Shooting the puck hard doesn't often get your teammates to play harder.

But we know this already. You know this already.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Until heart and competitiveness are how hockey games are judged rather than looking at which team scored more goals, I'm afraid I don't really care about heart and competitiveness by themselves. I care about a player's overall impact on goal differential.

Do those attributes impact how effective a player is at driving goal differential? I'm sure they do. But the fact is over the last two seasons the overall Tom Wilson package, which includes his heart and competitiveness, has been quite bad at driving goal differential.

It's just as valid as me saying that Michael Stone (the other Stone) is good because he shoots the puck hard. I mean he certainly does shoot the puck hard, but is he any good?

Which fulltime Caps winger or even RW the past 2 years HAS been good at driving goal differential? Slim picking on a team who’s best talents have fallen off a cliff.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Very Interesting.

Oshie has had some great seasons and very very clutch playoffs. Wilson hasn't had those kind of results... yet.

With that said Wilsons Unicorn per 60 is very impressive.

Oranges>>>Apples

Unless it's honeycrisp, than just one >.

In this case we're comparing Right Wingers to Right Wingers.

Fair, but you're comparing RWs who have different roles on the team.

 

[um]

Fair, but you're comparing RWs who have different roles on the team.

I don't get that argument at all.

For example, you can't compare Ovechkin and Chimera because they had different roles? Surely you know who the better player is there.

If you're saying it's too close between Oshie and Wilson and you can't decide, that makes sense.

 

[twabby]

Which fulltime Caps winger or even RW the past 2 years HAS been good at driving goal differential? Slim picking on a team who’s best talents have fallen off a cliff.

Agreed they should look to get better core players. That's my whole point in wanting to trade Tom Wilson!

 

[twabby]

Shooting the puck hard doesn't often get your teammates to play harder.

This is always a curious claim to me because Washington has maybe the lowest give-a-shit player in the league in Kuznetsov. Even the effort of guys like Ovechkin, Carlson, and Mantha have been questioned while Wilson has been a core member of the team.

Unless the argument is that Kuznetsov and the others would give even less of a shit without Wilson around?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Agreed they should look to get better core players. That's my whole point in wanting to trade Tom Wilson!

You’re just creating a problem elsewhere and not changing the dynamic much. You’re not getting a star C back for TW. Stop fantasizing that scenario and maybe you can move on.

 

[g00n]

Until heart and competitiveness are how hockey games are judged rather than looking at which team scored more goals, I'm afraid I don't really care about heart and competitiveness by themselves. I care about a player's overall impact on goal differential.

Do those attributes impact how effective a player is at driving goal differential? I'm sure they do. But the fact is over the last two seasons the overall Tom Wilson package, which includes his heart and competitiveness, has been quite bad at driving goal differential.

It's just as valid as me saying that Michael Stone (the other Stone) is good because he shoots the puck hard. I mean he certainly does shoot the puck hard, but is he any good?

xHeart/60

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is always a curious claim to me because Washington has maybe the lowest give-a-shit player in the league in Kuznetsov. Even the effort of guys like Ovechkin, Carlson, and Mantha have been questioned while Wilson has been a core member of the team.

Unless the argument is that Kuznetsov and the others would give even less of a shit without Wilson around?

Just shows some guys (92) can rarely be motivated. He reached the pinnacle, he got paid, he just doesn’t care enough to be a good player any more. Trying to blame that on team leadership is more bullshit.

 

[HTFN]

This is always a curious claim to me because Washington has maybe the lowest give-a-shit player in the league in Kuznetsov. Even the effort of guys like Ovechkin, Carlson, and Mantha have been questioned while Wilson has been a core member of the team.

Unless the argument is that Kuznetsov and the others would give even less of a shit without Wilson around?

Or you're cherrypicking one lost cause who wouldn't give a shit if half of the league's greatest leaders were back in their primes just to drag him along right now.

Wilson engages and the team follows, it's a thing that happens fairly often. You're f***ing around here, stick to charts.

Hell let's skip Wilson for a second, Leonard being a Wilson-type was key in the USA winning the WJC this year. He took their slow starts in the later games as a project and started mucking it up and getting involved in shit, being a little extra in play and after the whistle, and the team started waking up and playing. The guy was a menace out there in ways that would never show up on the stat sheet but mattered a ton. Doesn't hurt that he also produced in all your favorite metrics, but that wasn't the standout trait for him and a lot of USA fans reveling in what he was doing were also recognizing that they're not going to enjoy this going forward.

It matters. I don't know how we're still trying to convince you it matters, but this is one that should be obvious.

 

[HeyMattyB]

Do people not know how to compare apples to oranges?

"Of course I can tell the difference!," I say as I attempt to peel an apple with my fingers while slathering peanut butter on a freshly-peeled orange

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Contract Notes:

• 2019-24: 15-team no trade list
  

RE: Kuzy, does that mean his no trade is good through 23-24, or 24-25?

 

[notDkristich]

Wanted to post that I appreciate twabby's posts and appreciate those that refute his analytical approach. I think the answer lies in between. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Philips. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Wilson. I think we can all agree that the analytical approach is still flawed but shows potential.

 

[trick9]

Contract Notes:

• 2019-24: 15-team no trade list

RE: Kuzy, does that mean his no trade is good through 23-24, or 24-25?

Capfriendly has it as:
- 2019-2022: Player submits a 15-team no-trade list
- 2022-2025: Player submits a 10-team no-trade list

But if i'm honest... what's the difference? Kuznetsov is a 30-point player who is the worst defensive forward in the league. Team that likes a guy like him as a bounce back candidate might give him a PTO or league-minimum contract. If someone was willing to trade for him at 3.9m (50%) cap hit you take that and run away laughing. In todays NHL to acquire a player like that with all the analytics data available should be a fireable offense for a GM. Esp given since it's not like the eye test trumps those advanced stats.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Oshie was a significantly better player than Wilson when their new contracts were to kick in:

View attachment 800167

View attachment 800168

And as mentioned earlier the trajectory of the team is way different now than in 2017 when the Capitals were arguably a bounce or two away from winning it all vs. what they are now. I don't think the two situations are alike at all.

I also don't think the Orpik situation is similar either because he was a free agent and not a trade chip that could return a massive haul.

Wanted to post that I appreciate twabby's posts and appreciate those that refute his analytical approach. I think the answer lies in between. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Philips. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Wilson. I think we can all agree that the analytical approach is still flawed but shows potential.

I'll translate this for everyone. Wilson is awesome and Philips stinks, as he's not NHL material!

 

[Kuz]

Wanted to post that I appreciate twabby's posts and appreciate those that refute his analytical approach. I think the answer lies in between. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Philips. Analytics and the eye test disagree on Wilson. I think we can all agree that the analytical approach is still flawed but shows potential.

Still this years WIlson isnt what he was 3-4 years ago. Hes still a very good player, but isnt taking over games as he once was. Still he is very good and I think the contract is fair and that he will be an important part in the next years.

Still I see the argument that he can be valuable in a trade aswell and could add a valuable piece for the future.

 

[twabby]

Analytics is a land of contrasts

 

[StrikingDistance]

I don't get that argument at all.

For example, you can't compare Ovechkin and Chimera because they had different roles? Surely you know who the better player is there.

If you're saying it's too close between Oshie and Wilson and you can't decide, that makes sense.

You can compare all you like, but you're basically comparing 2 different jobs at the same company:

1 person's job is to create a software app that factors in effort and heart/60 as a tangible metric

2nd person's job is to Test this software app and makes sure the software is reliable, protects it from outside threats, and it won't crash the existing system when integrated.

I'll let you figure out which player is who in this scenario, but they are interdependent. You can use the same metrics to evaluate performance, but the metric will not be accurate at how good the person is doing their job. If I have to go into further detail, I'm going to send you an invoice. lol

ps can you tell I'm at work?