Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

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Jags

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Preferring the currently better players is what’s happening.

Some of those takes are subjective, but I'd love to hear your take on Irwin playing, cuz the idea that he's the BPA is bullshit.

I'm all for authority bias. Those guys are privy to tons of things we aren't, know more than we do, and that's why they have their jobs. But when young Caps players are boxed out to the tune of like 90% despite their supposed position in the rotation, in favor of waiver claims and players that just aren't good with no future with the team, instead of bringing someone along that the organization could benefit greatly from for a few years, there's a bias that has more to do with something other than authority.

That shortsightedness costs us big in both personnel and cap dollars, and the coaches and GM are equally to blame. Not embracing turnover, watching valuable players lose all of their value, waiting until contracts expire, losing players for nothing... This is not a recipe for success. We need to be way more proactive.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

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Some of those takes are subjective, but I'd love to hear your take on Irwin playing, cuz the idea that he's the BPA is bullshit.

I'm all for authority bias. Those guys are privy to tons of things we aren't, know more than we do, and that's why they have their jobs. But when young Caps players are boxed out to the tune of like 90% despite their supposed position in the rotation, in favor of waiver claims and players that just aren't good with no future with the team, instead of bringing someone along that the organization could benefit greatly from for a few years, there's a bias that has more to do with something other than authority.

That shortsightedness costs us big in both personnel and cap dollars, and the coaches and GM are equally to blame. Not embracing turnover, watching valuable players lose all of their value, waiting until contracts expire, losing players for nothing... This is not a recipe for success. We need to be way more proactive.
Lol so you have issue with the 18th skater? Over who lol? Rooks.

Coaches are better prepared to make the tough judgment calls than you or I. It is what it is. We have had a deep roster and relatively good injury luck over the years….THAT is what has lead to younger marginal players getting boxed out.

When they’re performing marginally in practice and limited game time they DO get, you will have some marginal guys move on and have success other places. There’s not a single Cap we’ve traded away in this era or let go that I miss. Forsberg is the only talent I would love to have back in a vacuum.

Bigger issue for me is with drafting and not having better young prospects whose play demands coaches attention and big club ice time.
 
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Jags

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Figured it wasn't just a chopped up ear for Carlson but what in the world can keep him out for months but not need surgery?

Probably a broken bone that won't benefit from being repaired and just needs to mend?

Yeah, probably broke or cracked something, and there's only one kind of head rehab...

giphy.gif
giphy.gif


He looked okay in that Christmas pic, but for all we know he may have gotten hit in the head so hard that he thinks he's Liberace and only speaks Pig Latin.
 

Jags

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There’s not a single Cap we’ve traded away in this era or let go that I miss.

Ah, okay, fair enough. We just plain disagree on this one. Zero common ground to build on if that's how you feel. That's basically saying our coaches and management do no wrong.

Skipping the point about the absence of turnover and the perpetual age and cap bind it has us in is perplexing, but I guess you're just okay with a formula that will always gradually degrade team performance when you no longer have a few generational talents in their prime propping things up.

Look, I'm not anti-Laviolette, and I've always liked MacLellan. BMac has always proven adept and maneuvering around those neverending cap crunches, but it's becoming more and more clear over time that he's also the cause of a lot of them.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Ah, okay, fair enough. We just plain disagree on this one. Zero common ground to build on if that's how you feel. That's basically saying our coaches and management do no wrong.

Skipping the point about the absence of turnover and the perpetual age and cap bind it has us in is perplexing, but I guess you're just okay with a formula that will always gradually degrade team performance when you no longer have a few generational talents in their prime propping things up.

Look, I'm not anti-Laviolette, and I've always liked MacLellan. BMac has always proven adept and maneuvering around those neverending cap crunches, but it's becoming more and more clear over time that he's also the cause of a lot of them.
I’m in no way saying coaches and GM’s don’t make mistakes. Forsberg….clear mistake, but I’m not crying over Vrana, Bura, Stephenson, Siege, Schmidt, etc….and I’m certainly not crying over CMM or anyone else deemed not the best option at this time.

I look at Dowd, Hathaway, Gus, Milano, Strome, etc…and see roster wins for next to no cost. Instead of seeing the positives, the focus of some of you are only on the negatives from GMBM and Lavi.

I’m more than happy to turn over the roster to players when they’re the best roster option. We can gift ice time to unready prospects after Ovechkin is gone.
 
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Jags

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I’m more than happy to turn over the roster to players when they’re the best roster option.

Can you at least concede that "best roster option" isn't 100% about performance; that you can move a guy out to save a shitload of cap space, promote a young player that's a serviceable replacement with real upside, and spend the savings to upgrade in other areas?

This is what we're talking about. That whole "gifting ice time to undeserving players" is not what anyone's arguing here. There's more to personnel than "That guy is 4% better."

You're absolutely right about BMac's dumpster diving. I don't think there's a better GM at this in the last decade. He's found a bunch of gems in free agency, waivers, and trade throw-ins, and that goes a long way toward fixing the downsides of him not being more proactive in other areas. The turnover problem has been a glaring weak spot of his.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

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Can you at least concede that "best roster option" isn't 100% about performance; that you can move a guy out to save a shitload of cap space, promote a young player that's a serviceable replacement with real upside, and spend the savings to upgrade in other areas?

This is what we're talking about. That whole "gifting ice time to undeserving players" is not what anyone's arguing here. There's more to personnel than "That guy is 4% better."

You're absolutely right about BMac's dumpster diving. I don't think there's a better GM at this in the last decade. He's found a bunch of gems in free agency, waivers, and trade throw-ins, and that goes a long way toward fixing the downsides of him not being more proactive in other areas. The turnover problem has been a glaring weak spot of his.
People have been arguing for CMM to be forced into the lineup (3C role) all year. He’s clearly not the best option this year. That’s gifting.

I can concede the best roster option might not be 100% about current performance, but I would also suggest it’s MOSTLY about the player‘s current output/performance on win now teams.

Caps are a team looking to scrape every point they can from every game to make the postseason. That gives them very little margin to throw guys into roles where you have another guy who performs the role you need today a bit better.

I’m all for good hockey trades reinvesting money to acquire bigger stars, more talent, etc…..hell trade Eller, Kuzy, Carlson, make some noise and make serious moves. Backstrom, Oshie’s longterm health….these all could be massive shifts in the entire roster.

What I can’t get on board with is a plan to downgrade the roster today, with the hope we can improve sometime in the future, but we have no real plan (other than to wait and see what we can do in free agency or trades).

If there’s a deal to trade Eller and simultaneously we can acquire a 3C upgrade that makes sense…sign me up! That goes for any roster spot.
 
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DWGie26

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Just read TEB‘s Athletic article. Didn’t think Backstrom was really that close But it will be great to see what he has. that said, we are about to have a lot of forwards including a bunch who can play in the top 6 so I don’t think we need to go get any more forwards (top 6 or otherwise). Now that it is being reported that JC74 might be out months, then we really need to go get a RD.

I prefer to do this via trade (versus someone sitting as UFA now). We can get a utility 3RD/4RD type in exchange for Milano or Snively. I prefer to keep NAK as a right stick and a bit more snarl. We could go a bit more impactful with a Top 4 rightly in exchange for Mantha and maybe something else. But looking at his stats and solid (but quiet play), he could be an important piece for a contender out west.

Any thoughts on who either of those players could be?
 

DWGie26

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So i have few takes on the @Jags and @CapitalsCupReality conversation:

1. We are missing the forest through the trees as fans. We went through a rebuild and play the kids. Took us 8 years to get truly competitive but enjoyed a blossoming OV. We have now been cup competitive and in the playoffs for like 10 years (sorry if my exact math is off a bit). Of all of the contracts, trades, FA signings, etc, only Panik has resulted in us paying to get rid of a contract. That is world class compared to 31 other NHL teams. Mistakes have been made because that is part of the business. Still world class Cap, player, and contract management
2. We do have some youngsters who have made the lineup. And many who haven’t on OUR team. But they have found roles in other teams. That is still a good problem to have but yeah, we are going to lose some homegrown talent. Leason and AJF for Milano and NAK from pure talent standpoint is a solid upgrade for us.
3. I’m not in favor of sitting Mojo, Carlson, Mantha, Eller, and other veterans that in the lineup over youth who hasn’t been able to steal a spot. But those contracts are coming up and more opportunities will be Had.
4. I WOULD like to see Alexyev play over Irwin. Irwin was signed to be a 7th/8th dee so putting him on bench for Alexyev is a good opportunity for us. I think Alexyev can take on those minutes on the right side today. Irwin has a place on the roster for remainder of season, but ready for him to be back to 7th.

There is a lot of season and playoffs left so taking away recency bias, it will be interesting to see who continues to be an impact player and get resigned (like Gus and Hathaway) and who in our system proves they can play at next level And gets an NHL contract (Frank, McMichael, Rybinski, Iorio, etc). But leading into this offseason was pretty well designed by BMAC. One thing for sure, if the season continues like December, we won’t be getting assets for pending UFA’s because we need them for playoff run.
 

YippieKaey

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Just read TEB‘s Athletic article. Didn’t think Backstrom was really that close But it will be great to see what he has. that said, we are about to have a lot of forwards including a bunch who can play in the top 6 so I don’t think we need to go get any more forwards (top 6 or otherwise). Now that it is being reported that JC74 might be out months, then we really need to go get a RD.

I prefer to do this via trade (versus someone sitting as UFA now). We can get a utility 3RD/4RD type in exchange for Milano or Snively. I prefer to keep NAK as a right stick and a bit more snarl. We could go a bit more impactful with a Top 4 rightly in exchange for Mantha and maybe something else. But looking at his stats and solid (but quiet play), he could be an important piece for a contender out west.

Any thoughts on who either of those players could be?

Half-jokingly i would try Mantha at RD. His style of play, with possession and responsible defensr, could actually be a decent fit. He also has the same lethargic style as Carlson;)
 
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Jags

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That is world class compared to 31 other NHL teams. Mistakes have been made because that is part of the business.

It's definitely been good. And mistakes are fine, but when you keep making the same mistake -- one that costs you personnel and millions against the cap and has on a few occasions ended up being a sizable downgrade -- because you keep doing the same thing instead, you should probably stop doing that thing.

I'm not in the camp that thinks every player that turned out to be good that we let go was a terrible move. Lots of them were understandable. But a few weren't, and it didn't take hindsight to see it. And that wouldn't be worth talking about if it weren't happening again right now on some level.

Leason and AJF for Milano and NAK from pure talent standpoint is a solid upgrade for us.

Agree 100%. It's when we've moved young talent out and replaced it with shit or chosen to keep shit instead that we run into trouble. We agree on Irwin, so let's use him as an example. The games he gets are games we could be using to bring along a younger player who could save us a lot of cap room over multiple seasons if they're able to seize a starting role. And if they have that in them, the sooner the better ($$$$$$$$$$), so getting games now helps.

So the "Lars Eller is 11% better right now!" argument I agree with. But I'd take that 11% hit along with the $2.75 million in cap savings to make an upgrade at another need spot that could be a 40% jump. I like that math, and that type of foresight and that type of calculated risk is 100% what I'm talking about.

You call it gifting someone ice time. I call it a calculated move with some risk that could end up paying off huge. Would I prefer it if that young player made it a no-brainer move with seemingly zero risk that any bonehead GM could make by playing 12% better? Of course. But the world's more complicated than that.

The arguments about downgrading the team now are true. It's a risk. But it's less of a risk if you have a GM that's good at finding gems when we need them and hey, we've got that GM. Lucky us.

I’m not in favor of sitting Mojo, Carlson, Mantha, Eller, and other veterans that in the lineup over youth who hasn’t been able to steal a spot.

Me neither. The idea would be to not have that guy in the first place. We could have made a move on Eller years ago, saved a lot of money, been a better team, AND traded Eller while he still had real value. Didn't take hindsight to know what we had. It just would have taken balls to embrace that young player and make the move. We could have made that same move with that same guy this year, just isn't as clear what we'd have done with the savings.

I'd be using the hell out of Irwin starts to evaluate every D prospect we have because we have a lot of D spots in flux. If one guy can make the jump, the savings would help us afford to keep another guy we like.

I like Mojo and not sure why Mantha is an example here. NAK and Milano, too. It's not clear to me that we have a wing ready to make the jump with the potential to ultimately seize a starting spot that'd save us real dollars. I'm good with all those moves.
 

Langway

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Any thoughts on who either of those players could be?
I'd like to see what Iorio can offer but they'll likely opt for more experience. Stralman cleared waivers a while back. Zaitsev is on the block and someone Ottawa wants to move by including a high pick with. As a 3RD he could be passable I guess, though the additional season remaining would be problematic. They could either buy it out or maybe retain to move him elsewhere in the summer. There's Erik Karlsson with retention, though there again term could be an issue.

John Klingberg is probably the closest like-for-like rental option. Not perfect but somewhat close. Dumba & Myers would be another couple options. I'm guessing they'll wait it out and hope Fehervary returning gives them enough to not be forced into a move before they'd like. Once they're fully healthy (minus 74) maybe they'll then pivot toward how best to reshape things down the stretch.
 

Empty Goal Net

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It's definitely been good. And mistakes are fine, but when you keep making the same mistake -- one that costs you personnel and millions against the cap and has on a few occasions ended up being a sizable downgrade -- because you keep doing the same thing instead, you should probably stop doing that thing.

I'm not in the camp that thinks every player that turned out to be good that we let go was a terrible move. Lots of them were understandable. But a few weren't, and it didn't take hindsight to see it. And that wouldn't be worth talking about if it weren't happening again right now on some level.



Agree 100%. It's when we've moved young talent out and replaced it with shit or chosen to keep shit instead that we run into trouble. We agree on Irwin, so let's use him as an example. The games he gets are games we could be using to bring along a younger player who could save us a lot of cap room over multiple seasons if they're able to seize a starting role. And if they have that in them, the sooner the better ($$$$$$$$$$), so getting games now helps.

So the "Lars Eller is 11% better right now!" argument I agree with. But I'd take that 11% hit along with the $2.75 million in cap savings to make an upgrade at another need spot that could be a 40% jump. I like that math, and that type of foresight and that type of calculated risk is 100% what I'm talking about.

You call it gifting someone ice time. I call it a calculated move with some risk that could end up paying off huge. Would I prefer it if that young player made it a no-brainer move with seemingly zero risk that any bonehead GM could make by playing 12% better? Of course. But the world's more complicated than that.

The arguments about downgrading the team now are true. It's a risk. But it's less of a risk if you have a GM that's good at finding gems when we need them and hey, we've got that GM. Lucky us.



Me neither. The idea would be to not have that guy in the first place. We could have made a move on Eller years ago, saved a lot of money, been a better team, AND traded Eller while he still had real value. Didn't take hindsight to know what we had. It just would have taken balls to embrace that young player and make the move. We could have made that same move with that same guy this year, just isn't as clear what we'd have done with the savings.

I'd be using the hell out of Irwin starts to evaluate every D prospect we have because we have a lot of D spots in flux. If one guy can make the jump, the savings would help us afford to keep another guy we like.

I like Mojo and not sure why Mantha is an example here. NAK and Milano, too. It's not clear to me that we have a wing ready to make the jump with the potential to ultimately seize a starting spot that'd save us real dollars. I'm good with all those moves.
Yep. I doubt mgmt makes a straightforward "Player X is better than Player Y, so Player Y sits (or stays in Hershey)." It's a complex equation with multiple variables including relative salary, player trajectory, alternative players, alternative uses, and much more.

It's also the case that you're not gonna win all your RS games. If the goal is another Cup - and not the President's Trophy - you're better off seeing what you've got coming up when the games matter (i.e., not preseason) but early enough in the season so that those real games are not during playoff prep time in the last 20 or so games of the season. I have not read any poster advocating for "gifting" time to newer guys. If anything, the gifting of time seems to be going to veterans who in some cases do not seem to have earned it. Poster boy being Hags last season prior to his injury.
 

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It's definitely been good. And mistakes are fine, but when you keep making the same mistake -- one that costs you personnel and millions against the cap and has on a few occasions ended up being a sizable downgrade -- because you keep doing the same thing instead, you should probably stop doing that thing.

I'm not in the camp that thinks every player that turned out to be good that we let go was a terrible move. Lots of them were understandable. But a few weren't, and it didn't take hindsight to see it. And that wouldn't be worth talking about if it weren't happening again right now on some level.



Agree 100%. It's when we've moved young talent out and replaced it with shit or chosen to keep shit instead that we run into trouble. We agree on Irwin, so let's use him as an example. The games he gets are games we could be using to bring along a younger player who could save us a lot of cap room over multiple seasons if they're able to seize a starting role. And if they have that in them, the sooner the better ($$$$$$$$$$), so getting games now helps.

So the "Lars Eller is 11% better right now!" argument I agree with. But I'd take that 11% hit along with the $2.75 million in cap savings to make an upgrade at another need spot that could be a 40% jump. I like that math, and that type of foresight and that type of calculated risk is 100% what I'm talking about.

You call it gifting someone ice time. I call it a calculated move with some risk that could end up paying off huge. Would I prefer it if that young player made it a no-brainer move with seemingly zero risk that any bonehead GM could make by playing 12% better? Of course. But the world's more complicated than that.

The arguments about downgrading the team now are true. It's a risk. But it's less of a risk if you have a GM that's good at finding gems when we need them and hey, we've got that GM. Lucky us.



Me neither. The idea would be to not have that guy in the first place. We could have made a move on Eller years ago, saved a lot of money, been a better team, AND traded Eller while he still had real value. Didn't take hindsight to know what we had. It just would have taken balls to embrace that young player and make the move. We could have made that same move with that same guy this year, just isn't as clear what we'd have done with the savings.

I'd be using the hell out of Irwin starts to evaluate every D prospect we have because we have a lot of D spots in flux. If one guy can make the jump, the savings would help us afford to keep another guy we like.

I like Mojo and not sure why Mantha is an example here. NAK and Milano, too. It's not clear to me that we have a wing ready to make the jump with the potential to ultimately seize a starting spot that'd save us real dollars. I'm good with all those moves.
Not sure how you peeled that out so well, but that is good work. And good thoughts as well.

I think the one we disagree on is Eller. He was bad last year. Back to form this year and some of that has to be related to playing with consistent linemates, who ironically are veterans. If we had traded him last year, we would be in a world of hurt this year. But he’ll need to go after this year. I’d rather have Strome and Backstrom as my middle centers. With Protas, McMichael, and Lapierre (even Borgstrom) in the wings.

The other thing I didn’t clearly articulate is that “wanting to move someone” and being ”able to move someone” are two different things. It is hard to move NHL contracts that aren’t favorable especially when everyone can see they are underperforming. So you do what Vegas did and give people away or you buy them out and end up with dead cap space. The Caps had to do that once with Panik And it hurt. So mostly you have to run contracts out which we will do this year.
 
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DWGie26

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I'd like to see what Iorio can offer but they'll likely opt for more experience. Stralman cleared waivers a while back. Zaitsev is on the block and someone Ottawa wants to move by including a high pick with. As a 3RD he could be passable I guess, though the additional season remaining would be problematic. They could either buy it out or maybe retain to move him elsewhere in the summer. There's Erik Karlsson with retention, though there again term could be an issue.

John Klingberg is probably the closest like-for-like rental option. Not perfect but somewhat close. Dumba & Myers would be another couple options. I'm guessing they'll wait it out and hope Fehervary returning gives them enough to not be forced into a move before they'd like. Once they're fully healthy (minus 74) maybe they'll then pivot toward how best to reshape things down the stretch.
I’m really excited about Iorio but i just don’t think he is ready Just yet. We’re talking about a pretty long stretch without JC74. Having a 4th RD now and through the playoffs would be an important move.

Stralman at 1M is interesting even though he is 36. did he report to AHL?

Zaitsev is an interesting option but damn, how did he get that contract? Would have to be 50% retained Which Ottawa can’t afford with only 2M in cap space. Although, I just looked and he is on IR. Not sure why.
 

twabby

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I'd YOLO for Erik Karlsson with the way he's played the past two seasons and his postseason history. He drives offense like no other defenseman in the league, and that's something Washington has needed in recent postseasons. But San Jose isn't going to be in any rush to trade him before the offseason, especially with Karlsson likely to be in the Norris conversation this year and teams better able to restructure their rosters and absorb his cap hit in the offseason.

I'd stay away from Klingberg. Even before this season his impact has been steadily declining. At best he's a third pairing PP specialist, and if Carlson is healthy for the postseason they have both him and Gustafsson able to run the point on the PP.

Gostisbehere is maybe the best value target on defense. He can play LD or RD, he drives offense at ES, he's good on the PP, and he wouldn't be asked to do much defensively which is his main weakness. Also a rental with a reasonable $4.5M cap hit.

1672603048574.png


Everyone's talking about Chychrun but I wonder if Gostisbehere could be had for relatively cheap. If he's a fit he could also be an extension candidate if negotiations with Orlov or Gustafsson go sideways.
 
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Jags

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It's also the case that you're not gonna win all your RS games. If the goal is another Cup - and not the President's Trophy - you're better off seeing what you've got coming up when the games matter (i.e., not preseason) but early enough in the season so that those real games are not during playoff prep time in the last 20 or so games of the season.

1000%. This is what the regular season is for now. We learned the hard way during our Presidents Trophy years that the new playoff format doesn't reward regular season success. You can still end up playing the 2 seed in the second round.

So use the regular season to fully evaluate your team; to give young players a shot to see what they have playing with and against NHL talent in games that count. The AHL, camp, and practice can only tell you so much. Some guys are gamers. Hell, some of the best guys are gamers. Give them games.

If we had traded him last year, we would be in a world of hurt this year.

We could have backstopped Protas and McMichael with one of those wiley vets BMac likes to pull out of thin air on a PTO or into the season as our 13th. And Protas or McMichael might have thrived if they were trusted instead of constantly sheltered, punished, and not playing center. Given some elbow room and time to settle in and find a rhythm might have yielded results. And if not, go to your fallback or make a trade with $2.75m of elbow room to get someone established if you want.

The other thing I didn’t clearly articulate is that “wanting to move someone” and being ”able to move someone” are two different things. It is hard to move NHL contracts that aren’t favorable especially when everyone can see they are underperforming.

All the more reason to make the tougher call earlier with Stephenson, get cheaper at the position, real value (and no problem) trading Eller, and right now your 3C is a stud. Stephenson showed all the versatility in 2018 to know what we had in him. Letting go of Eller would have been a tough call, but we had a guy in hand that could do the job and desperately needed the cap room.

When you have a young, cost-controlled player that proves they can play in the NHL, it pays huge to find a spot for them, even if it might end up costing you a little on the ice. Stephenson was moved so we could bring Hagelin back from IR. Hagelin.

I wouldn't give two shits about losing Stephenson if we did it to get or keep a good player. If we traded Eller or lost Hagelin, we also wouldn't have had to let Boyd go. I'm not gonna look it up, but that might've been during Panik, too. What we chose instead of Stephenson and Boyd is what makes those moves painful, and hindsight makes it hurt worse.

Better to keep your young talent than spend millions grasping at straws trying to find something better or waste years waiting out contracts, giving aging, declining players with no future on your team games that could be better used elsewise.
 
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RedRocking

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Trade Eller, replace him with an upgrade, not a downgrade. Why is that forbidden? Why do we have to force guys in who are not ready/not better options? Nobody seems to be able to explain that.
Also, does anyone really think the team has the same success this past month with CMM/Protas playing 3C? Do you think the PK is as strong without Eller? If the answer is yes, I’m not sure what team you’re watching.

Do you remember the game where Protas did play 3C, and that line was a big yikes, and was quickly sheltered and chopped up.

The problem is the Metro is way too competitive and there aren’t regular season games to potentially throw away giving someone runway. Until we acknowledge any kind of rebuild/retool, the goal isn’t development - it’s clawing for every point.

Especially this season with the slow start. It must be nice to be out West where you can screw around and just play good hockey for like 6 weeks and make the playoffs.
 
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