Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Alexander the Gr8]

In theory, sure. But the realities of Backstrom’s situation, will prevent that. At least initially.

There’s so much cloudy about his future, and what he will actually be able to do. Remembering that no one has ever successfully regained their form after this type of surgery, has to weigh on their decision.

Trade Eller and then Backs can’t really play….then you’re stuck w CMcM or Protas as 3c. Or a promoted Dowd and diluted 4th line.

I don’t think they take that chance this year. At least not right off the bat. Nor should they, IMO.

Protas gets sent down, as will NAK/Snively….with either hopefully clearing. We will see.

Good point. In that case, you waive both NAK and Snively and you run 5 Cs until you’re sure Backstrom can perform well enough. Trade Eller at the deadline and add reinforcements in whichever hole we have on the roster.

 

[Jags]

In theory, sure. But the realities of Backstrom’s situation, will prevent that. At least initially.

There’s so much cloudy about his future, and what he will actually be able to do. Remembering that no one has ever successfully regained their form after this type of surgery, has to weigh on their decision.

You might be right, but I don't think they let Backstrom play if they believe he's fragile. There have been big improvements in hip surgery over the last decade, back when those comparisons happened. These days players from several contact sports are lining up to get surgeries that were typically either career-enders or avoided until retirement because of the risks to their livelihoods.

The surgeries Krejci had over the years were no joke. He had serious impingements on both sides, ended up having both done by 30, and is still playing some of his best-ever hockey at 36. Not without issues, I'm sure, but he's been playing pretty elite hockey for 6 years on majorly resurfaced hips.

If they can fit Eller under the cap without hurting themselves in other ways, I think they keep him, too. There'd be little reason not to at this point so long as he's not costing you a valuable player. If they move Eller to wing, he'd have to be decisively worse at wing than NAK to not take a little performance hit to keep Eller for the PK and center insurance.

But if there are issues with bringing everyone back from IR now that Carlson also figures in, it wouldn't surprise me if they moved Eller.

 

[Hivemind]

You might be right, but I don't think they let Backstrom play if they believe he's fragile. There have been big improvements in hip surgery over the last decade, back when those comparisons happened. These days players from several contact sports are lining up to get surgeries that were typically either career-enders or avoided until retirement because of the risks to their livelihoods.

The surgeries Krejci had over the years were no joke. He had serious impingements on both sides, ended up having both done by 30, and is still playing some of his best-ever hockey at 36. Not without issues, I'm sure, but he's been playing pretty elite hockey for 6 years on majorly resurfaced hips.

I don't believe Krejci had the same surgery as Backstrom. Krejci's surgery was to repair a hip impingement. Backstrom's hip was resurfaced. Hip impingement surgery can be an arthroscopic procedure, and doesn't involve replacing the whole hip bone. Hip resurfacing involves directly opening up the surrounding leg, and replacing the ball joint with a metal implant. It's a substantially more invasive surgery, with a much harder recovery.

The last NHL player to try to come back after a hip resurfacing surgery was Ryan Kesler, who had it done in 2019 (not a decade ago). He has not played an NHL game afterwards.

 

[Jags]

I don't believe Krejci had the same surgery as Backstrom.

He definitely didn't. But the processes and materials for Backstrom's surgery have changed a lot, to the extent that the prognoses are roughly equivalent to what major resurfacing was 10 years ago. Certainly more invasive with longer recoveries, but in the era of staggering medical liability, these surgeons are now advertising that they can return athletes in contact sports to competition level. That's pretty bold.

Backstrom went to the global authority on that surgery, and we've had these little updates along the way that include statements about what's possible now, but they're drowned out by the Jovo and Kesler comps.

I'm not optimistic. I'm firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. But this is what everyone in-the-know on Backstrom has been saying all along, and look where he is now. That he's eying a return at around the 7-month mark is crazy. The smart money was he'd miss the whole year; that MAYBE there was a chance he'd play in the postseason.

*shrug* Jury's out.

 

[RedRocking]

You might be right, but I don't think they let Backstrom play if they believe he's fragile. There have been big improvements in hip surgery over the last decade, back when those comparisons happened. These days players from several contact sports are lining up to get surgeries that were typically either career-enders or avoided until retirement because of the risks to their livelihoods.

The surgeries Krejci had over the years were no joke. He had serious impingements on both sides, ended up having both done by 30, and is still playing some of his best-ever hockey at 36. Not without issues, I'm sure, but he's been playing pretty elite hockey for 6 years on majorly resurfaced hips.

If they can fit Eller under the cap without hurting themselves in other ways, I think they keep him, too. There'd be little reason not to at this point so long as he's not costing you a valuable player. If they move Eller to wing, he'd have to be decisively worse at wing than NAK to not take a little performance hit to keep Eller for the PK and center insurance.

But if there are issues with bringing everyone back from IR now that Carlson also figures in, it wouldn't surprise me if they moved Eller.

Yea this is what I’ve heard on Walton’s podcast a few times over the past month or so. That Nick’s surgery was wildly successful, and at the very least improved his quality of life. They described the Belgium specialists, that performed the procedure, as the best in the world. He is apparently skating pain free for the first time in years. Both Walton and May say he looks great in practice, with May saying it’s the best he’s looked in like 7 years.

They both work for the org, so take it with a big grain of salt. But they seemed sincerely optimistic. Of course, I agree with the “I’ll believe it when I see it” sentiment.

 

[HTFN]

In theory, sure. But the realities of Backstrom’s situation, will prevent that. At least initially.

There’s so much cloudy about his future, and what he will actually be able to do. Remembering that no one has ever successfully regained their form after this type of surgery, has to weigh on their decision.

Trade Eller and then Backs can’t really play….then you’re stuck w CMcM or Protas as 3c. Or a promoted Dowd and diluted 4th line.

I don’t think they take that chance this year. At least not right off the bat. Nor should they, IMO.

Protas gets sent down, as will NAK/Snively….with either hopefully clearing. We will see.

Yeah, you can't leave that all on Backstrom down the stretch, they'll have to do it in a way that keeps Eller in the fold so if things ultimately fail recovery-wise they're just back to square one.

I'd personally like to see a way that also keeps Protas up, because I think he's the type of guy that would benefit a lot from seeing the playoff game before going into his offseason to work. Maybe give Tage Thompson a call and see what that dude's been eating too

 

[Roshi]

I actually still like Mantha, or atleast want to like him, but it just makes too much sense to swap him for a top4 dman.

Ovechkin
Oshie
Wilson
Milano
Sheary
Johansson
Hathaway
Protas
NAK
Snively
Malenstyn
And Eller goes to W if Backy can play

They really going to sit Eller or this 2015 version of Johansson in the press box when Willy and Oshie and/if Backy are (all) back? And send Snively or Milano to waivers and Protas to Hershey? While our 6D is rookie Alexeyeev or Matt Irwin?

 

[Ridley Simon]

You might be right, but I don't think they let Backstrom play if they believe he's fragile. There have been big improvements in hip surgery over the last decade, back when those comparisons happened. These days players from several contact sports are lining up to get surgeries that were typically either career-enders or avoided until retirement because of the risks to their livelihoods.

The surgeries Krejci had over the years were no joke. He had serious impingements on both sides, ended up having both done by 30, and is still playing some of his best-ever hockey at 36. Not without issues, I'm sure, but he's been playing pretty elite hockey for 6 years on majorly resurfaced hips.

If they can fit Eller under the cap without hurting themselves in other ways, I think they keep him, too. There'd be little reason not to at this point so long as he's not costing you a valuable player. If they move Eller to wing, he'd have to be decisively worse at wing than NAK to not take a little performance hit to keep Eller for the PK and center insurance.

But if there are issues with bringing everyone back from IR now that Carlson also figures in, it wouldn't surprise me if they moved Eller.

Oh, I think Backstrom will be “healthy”, or else I agree, he wouldn’t play.

It’s how effective he will be, or more how long it may take him to reach an effectiveness that allows them to move a C.

I don’t want this to look like I’m doubting him. Not at all. But can’t put blinders on either, as there really isn’t a full precedent (Krecji withstanding) of success yet.

PS — Carlsons injury makes it all moot anyway, at least for now. He’s LTIR once 19 comes back.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yeah, you can't leave that all on Backstrom down the stretch, they'll have to do it in a way that keeps Eller in the fold so if things ultimately fail recovery-wise they're just back to square one.

I'd personally like to see a way that also keeps Protas up, because I think he's the type of guy that would benefit a lot from seeing the playoff game before going into his offseason to work. Maybe give Tage Thompson a call and see what that dude's been eating too

Yeah, Protas only makes sense bc he can’t be claimed. NAK and Snively can. Maybe they wouldn’t, but odds of both clearing are obviously worse than the odds of one clearing.

Or maybe they just go w 6 D-men. The Sal cap won’t be an issue. It’s only 23 player max to deal with.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I actually still like Mantha, or atleast want to like him, but it just makes too much sense to swap him for a top4 dman.

Ovechkin
Oshie
Wilson
Milano
Sheary
Johansson
Hathaway
Protas
NAK
Snively
Malenstyn
And Eller goes to W if Backy can play

They really going to sit Eller or this 2015 version of Johansson in the press box when Willy and Oshie and/if Backy are (all) back? And send Snively or Milano to waivers and Protas to Hershey? While our 6D is rookie Alexeyeev or Matt Irwin?

Who would you target?

 

[Roshi]

Who would you target?

Chychrun is the most obvious answer, though youd have to move Mo in a separate deal first propably as its hard to see Arizona having much of interest in him. And would need some heavy adds. Not sure if 1st + CMM + AA enough, but if you could recoup the 1st with Mantha, it might be worth to consider atleast.

Who else? Klingberg, Karlsson, Dumba, Gostisbehere, Gavrikov… theres lot of options and most of them arent one-to-one for the value Mantha has (higher/lower) but im pretty sure Mo still has decent value to get him moved separately. I dont know, i would even consider *drums* Shattenkirk

Anyhow, theres a clear logjam in the O, and as much there is a hole in the D. Mantha is expensive, and in a way also expendable if our other top6 forwards would just manage to stay healthy even for a week..

 

[DWGie26]

Good News: We are winning, in the playoff hunt, and getting healthy.

Bad News: We probaby aren’t going to get any value for our pending FA’s. They are all here to stay for a playoff run.

 

[DWGie26]

It's worth pointing out too that per Capfriendly the Caps currently have a full 23 man active roster (14F, 7D, 2G) without Wilson and Backstrom. They'll need to clear 2 spots to activate those guys.

Barring another injury they'll have to put one guy on waivers or trade them. Assuming those two spots are forwards, obvious candidates are Protas (waivers exempt), Snively, NAK.

It’s actually on 22 right now with 1 extra F and 1 extra Dee. So Oshie back (perhaps tomorrow) that will be 23.

When Wilson comes back someone must go. I would send Snively through waivers before NAK as a righty and highest xGF% (less games) in December.

But when Backstrom comes back that means someone else. Could be Protas with Eller then on 4th line.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

This feels like explaining astrophysics to a pineapple. Let's try it another way...

How do you find the time to make this, and what software do you use? Lol

 

[Hivemind]

I think the first step in responding to the Carlson injury is to see how Gus fairs as the primary PP1 point for a decent period of time. If the PP struggles, then guys like Gostibehere and Klingberg become more important. If Gus handles it well, then they don't need to shop for a RD who can run a powerplay, and can instead look for a steady or two-way RD that can contribute on the 2nd or 3rd pair. That opens the door to someone like Travis Hamonic.

While they're testing out Gus as the PPQB, they should also seize the chance to give Alexeyev and Iorio more substantial looks at 3RD.

A couple names that may elicit certain degrees of groans, but could end up on the Caps trade radar depending on how the RD situation progresses: Kevin Shattenkirk (if they need a PPQB and don't want Klingberg) and Radko Gudas (if Florida is out of it at the deadline, and they want a 3RD without PP ability)

 

[Jags]

How do you find the time to make this, and what software do you use? Lol

Didn't take much longer than one of my wordier posts. I had to get savvy with the Adobe suite early in my career and have accumulated an AutoHotkey script that shortcuts everything.

For this, grab some PNGs from Google Images, drop them in a frame, press a hotkey to save a slide, make an edit, save again, add text, save again, etc. The AHK shortcuts autoname the slides, so it's kinda like stop-motion animation with a camera. Move something, press a button, rinse, repeat.

Prolly took a half hour, give or take. There's only like 10 images in there, just moved around. The only image edit was cutting those 4 "free agents" into separate images at the end. The files were saved sequentially, so just pop them in a GIF, tweak the intervals a little, and you're done.

 

[YippieKaey]

Both of them are pending UFAs, and potential trade bait as well. Tarasenko is expected to be out 4 weeks, which should give him plenty of time to rehab and show off again before the deadline. But ROR is out 6 weeks, which if there's any delays in his recovery or if he's slow returning to form from injury could tank his value.

If we're still in a playoff spot at the deadline id do Mantha for Tarasenko. He's basically Ovi lite. Could be fun having both for the PP.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Didn't take much longer than one of my wordier posts. I had to get savvy with the Adobe suite early in my career and have accumulated an AutoHotkey script that shortcuts everything.

For this, grab some PNGs from Google Images, drop them in a frame, press a hotkey to save a slide, make an edit, save again, add text, save again, etc. The AHK shortcuts autoname the slides, so it's kinda like stop-motion animation with a camera. Move something, press a button, rinse, repeat.

Prolly took a half hour, give or take. There's only like 10 images in there, just moved around. The only image edit was cutting those 4 "free agents" into separate images at the end. The files were saved sequentially, so just pop them in a GIF, tweak the intervals a little, and you're done.

That's pretty cool, thanks for the insight! That's a neat way to make memes, or to get your point across in a forum

 

[DWGie26]

I think the first step in responding to the Carlson injury is to see how Gus fairs as the primary PP1 point for a decent period of time. If the PP struggles, then guys like Gostibehere and Klingberg become more important. If Gus handles it well, then they don't need to shop for a RD who can run a powerplay, and can instead look for a steady or two-way RD that can contribute on the 2nd or 3rd pair. That opens the door to someone like Travis Hamonic.

While they're testing out Gus as the PPQB, they should also seize the chance to give Alexeyev and Iorio more substantial looks at 3RD.

A couple names that may elicit certain degrees of groans, but could end up on the Caps trade radar depending on how the RD situation progresses: Kevin Shattenkirk (if they need a PPQB and don't want Klingberg) and Radko Gudas (if Florida is out of it at the deadline, and they want a 3RD without PP ability)

I like most of that thinking although I think Gus has confirmed to me he can be point on PP1. Orlov could play it Gus out for some reason.

Yes please on Alexyev in on right over Irwin. I could get behind Shattenkirk but he is 3.9M but it gives you a right hand point guy.

I prefer Luke Schen in Vancouver. Only 850k on expiring contract and played on cup team in TB. Good low risk choice for 3RD. I‘d trade Snively for him because I don’t think he fits here despite home grown talent. Too many other options at LW and he isn’t as much of an up and down the lineup guy. May be a bit of an overpay on our side but he is going to hit waivers anyway.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's pretty cool, thanks for the insight! That's a neat way to make memes, or to get your point across in a forum

“Neat”….

 

[Hivemind]

Didn't take much longer than one of my wordier posts. I had to get savvy with the Adobe suite early in my career and have accumulated an AutoHotkey script that shortcuts everything.

For this, grab some PNGs from Google Images, drop them in a frame, press a hotkey to save a slide, make an edit, save again, add text, save again, etc. The AHK shortcuts autoname the slides, so it's kinda like stop-motion animation with a camera. Move something, press a button, rinse, repeat.

Prolly took a half hour, give or take. There's only like 10 images in there, just moved around. The only image edit was cutting those 4 "free agents" into separate images at the end. The files were saved sequentially, so just pop them in a GIF, tweak the intervals a little, and you're done.

TLDR - Jags just signed up to make our playoff avatars this season


(I now accept all blame for the Caps missing the playoffs due to this jinx)

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

“Neat”….

FWIW, I don't agree with the premise of his animation, I thought it was a bit harsh towards you.

I only appreciated the animation skill, not the content itself.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

FWIW, I don't agree with the premise of his animation, I thought it was a bit harsh towards you.

I only appreciated the animation skill, not the content itself.

I take comfort in the time spent, given that I looked at it for 4 seconds.

It’s smug but whatever, and I don't agree with his idea that they should downgrade roster spots, praying young players can step up and not shit the bed causing them to miss the playoffs.

If you can’t sniff out a good hockey trade, why make bad ones to weaken your team? I‘m glad professionals are in charge, unlike say the Wizards or Commodes.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I take comfort in the time spent, given that I looked at it for 4 seconds.

It’s smug but whatever, and I don't agree with his idea that they should downgrade roster spots, praying young players can step up and not shit the bed causing them to miss the playoffs.

If you can’t sniff out a good hockey trade, why make bad ones to weaken your team?

I think his main point was to utilize Eller's cap space to retain as many pending D UFAs as possible. Keeping Orlov/TVR/Jensen will be tricky, and every dollar counts if we intend to keep them.

I'm not sure about committing to all the pending UFAs, but moving on from Eller will be helpful regardless of the path we choose with our D core.

As for Eller's replacement, I'm not too worried about it. The development of the Backstrom situation makes me cautiously optimistic, and I think he can slot in behind Strome and Kuznetsov for the rest of the season.
Past that point, who knows what kind of option we will have at our disposal in the summer.

 

[Jags]

I don't agree with his idea that they should downgrade roster spots, praying young players can step up and not shit the bed causing them to miss the playoffs.

And this is why we keep going back and forth; your constant need to misrepresent damn near everything I say to minimize, marginalize, and dismiss. Pretending not to see or understand points, claiming they haven't been explained, all so you can wave it away with a simplistic, "Whatever, you're whining, shut up. Authority bias FTW! Get your discussions off my discussion board!"

No one wants to downgrade a spot just to do it. The point is the recoup the cap space and whatever asset might come from a trade. And it's only an option when you have a serviceable replacement, not when you have to pray that someone can step up or panic that they might shit the bed.

There have been several examples of this over the last few years that cost us. I won't mention them because some of those names trigger your "You're whining!" reflex, but...

I think his main point was to utilize Eller's cap space to retain as many pending D UFAs as possible.

...in this example, yeah, it makes some sense. There's no foresight or risk involved now that we'll have to use the savings to maintain the status quo rather than improve. So it's a day late and a dollar short, but I'm sure we'll make the most of those 34 points and zero third-line identity.

But that example aside, the point is to make these moves when they have the most impact, which Mac rarely ever does. It made some sense back when we were constantly in all-in mode, but now that we have to triage and reload to contend we need to be shrewder and more proactive about turnover.

You don't like that the gif was smug. Fine. That's why it included an apology and a self-aware snipe at myself. But it illustrates that you can take a calculated, small hit to one spot in the lineup to accrue the assets you need to make a bigger impact somewhere else. Take a 10% hit to afford a 30% upgrade or to prevent losing a shit-ton of talent from your blueline. Not the end of the world. Your mileage may vary.