Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Alexander the Gr8]

...in this example, yeah, it makes some sense. There's no foresight or risk involved now that we'll have to use the savings to maintain the status quo rather than improve. So it's a day late and a dollar short, but I'm sure we'll make the most of those 34 points and zero third-line identity.

But that example aside, the point is to make these moves when they have the most impact, which Mac rarely ever does. It made some sense back when we were constantly in all-in mode, but now that we have to triage and reload to contend we need to be shrewder and more proactive about turnover.

You don't like that the gif was smug. Fine. That's why it included an apology and a self-aware snipe at myself. But it illustrates that you can take a calculated, small hit to one spot in the lineup to accrue the assets you need to make a bigger impact somewhere else. Take a 10% hit to afford a 30% upgrade or to prevent losing a shit-ton of talent from your blueline. Not the end of the world. Your mileage may vary.

If we're talking about the timing of an Eller trade, the obvious and only candidate is the deadline in exchange for a rental.

The real roster needs for a playoff push will be even more apparent, and there will be more players on the trade block around the league. Eller is on an expiring contract anyway, and I'm confident we won't see him in a Caps jersey next season.

If we're talking about moving other roster pieces to improve our retention rate on the blue line, GMBM does not need to look any further than Mantha. $5.7M off the books can help in many different areas.

 

[Jags]

If we're talking about the timing of an Eller trade, the obvious and only candidate is the deadline in exchange for a rental.

The real roster needs for a playoff push will be even more apparent, and there will be more players on the trade block around the league. Eller is on an expiring contract anyway, and I'm confident we won't see him in a Caps jersey next season.

If we're talking about moving other roster pieces to improve our retention rate on the blue line, GMBM does not need to look any further than Mantha. $5.7M off the books can help in many different areas.

I agree with all of this. The time to trade Eller passed. It'll be interesting to see what they do when Nick returns (a little hint today with Strome at wing in practice maybe), but Eller as insurance down the stretch and on PK makes the most sense, maybe even including the TDL.

Unless he gets moved to wing and sucks at it so hard that it's hurting us to have benched, say, Milano or Hershied Protas, Eller's fine where he is.

When the offseason comes, I'm open to everything. Too much in flux to speculate.

 

[HTFN]

And this is why we keep going back and forth; your constant need to misrepresent damn near everything I say to minimize, marginalize, and dismiss. Pretending not to see or understand points, claiming they haven't been explained, all so you can wave it away

No one wants to downgrade a spot just to do it. Take a 10% hit to afford a 30% upgrade or to prevent losing a shit-ton of talent from your blueline. Not the end of the world. Your mileage may vary.

We went rounds on this last year about player usage and win probability, and how much less valuable defensive players become later in games you're already losing.

CCR isn't capable of doing that calculus at any scale

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

You don't like that the gif was smug. Fine. That's why it included an apology and a self-aware snipe at myself. But it illustrates that you can take a calculated, small hit to one spot in the lineup to accrue the assets you need to make a bigger impact somewhere else. Take a 10% hit to afford a 30% upgrade or to prevent losing a shit-ton of talent from your blueline. Not the end of the world. Your mileage may vary.

I thought the gif was smoothly done and incorporated the key elements necessary to support the bolded above. Unfortunately, a look lasting more than "4 seconds" would have been required to fully understand the point you were making.

 

[Ridley Simon]

We went rounds on this last year about player usage and win probability, and how much less valuable defensive players become later in games you're already losing.

CCR isn't capable of doing that calculus at any scale

Oh come on brother. Just because someone disagrees with the premise doesn’t mean they can’t understand why you want it.

It’s just disagreeing.

CCR and I are from the “let it ride” stratagem more than most (as is g00n, calicaps, AlexBro and was Tex (RIP)). Neither is right or wrong…..well, both are depending on the year…. But it’s just a choice.

The vitriol we all have for each other is inanely frustrating to me. Let’s try and be better?

ALL of us (well except Queen Bee….every segment of life needs its protagonist).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Oh come on brother. Just because someone disagrees with the premise doesn’t mean they can’t understand why you want it.

It’s just disagreeing.

CCR and I are from the “let it ride” stratagem more than most (as is g00n, calicaps, AlexBro and was Tex (RIP)). Neither is right or wrong…..well, both are depending on the year…. But it’s just a choice.

The vitriol we all have for each other is inanely frustrating to me. Let’s try and be better?

ALL of us (well except Queen Bee….every segment of life needs its protagonist).

I summed up/dumbed down his position on Eller is all and didn’t use a series of 500 word responses, responding directly to him. I mean whatever….I certainly don’t feel like this has to get personal despite response like that, HTFN, etc…but hey, let them do them….

 

[HTFN]

Oh come on brother. Just because someone disagrees with the premise doesn’t mean they can’t understand why you want it.

It’s just disagreeing.

CCR and I are from the “let it ride” stratagem more than most (as is g00n, calicaps, AlexBro and was Tex (RIP)). Neither is right or wrong…..well, both are depending on the year…. But it’s just a choice.

The vitriol we all have for each other is inanely frustrating to me. Let’s try and be better?

ALL of us (well except Queen Bee….every segment of life needs its protagonist).

We disagree, I don’t see you deliberately reframing arguments to make them or the posters in favor of them sound needlessly stupid or hitting eject every time they’re pressed on something by saying it’s “been discussed” even though it’s always “discussed” just like that.

It’s GOP playbook shit and the new post is more of the same because I think you and I both know they didn’t make an honest attempt to do either of those things.

real talk, it's like half the same shit you dislike Hivemind for at this point

 

[twabby]

Lars Eller is currently the worst player in the NHL in terms of GAR due to penalties. On a team that otherwise is very good about not taking penalties it really stands out how many penalties he takes. That needs to change!

 

[Hivemind]

Lars Eller is currently the worst player in the NHL in terms of GAR due to penalties. On a team that otherwise is very good about not taking penalties it really stands out how many penalties he takes. That needs to change!

Can't kill a penalty from the penalty box

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Guess this conversation is over.

I may be slow here but is this in reference to Eller?

 

[usiel]

I don't believe Krejci had the same surgery as Backstrom. Krejci's surgery was to repair a hip impingement. Backstrom's hip was resurfaced. Hip impingement surgery can be an arthroscopic procedure, and doesn't involve replacing the whole hip bone. Hip resurfacing involves directly opening up the surrounding leg, and replacing the ball joint with a metal implant. It's a substantially more invasive surgery, with a much harder recovery.

The last NHL player to try to come back after a hip resurfacing surgery was Ryan Kesler, who had it done in 2019 (not a decade ago). He has not played an NHL game afterwards.

I believe Jovocop had the same surgery and did come back to play a bit less than half the season and then retired.

For me when Backstrom comes back and plays a few games it will be pretty clear if he's at the level he was last year or better and then the next question is if the hip can hold out.

Re: AA yeah he needs to play over Irwin he is definitely more mobile and needs some more NHL games to project into off season/next year calibration.

Sort of lame to speculate on the injury stuff but Carson being out 'months' smells like a cracked something on the face which for some injuries just needs to heal naturally.

 

[Hivemind]

I believe Jovocop had the same surgery and did come back to play a bit less than half the season and then retired.

For me when Backstrom comes back and plays a few games it will be pretty clear if he's at the level he was last year or better and then the next question is if the hip can hold out.

Yup. Jovocop also had his hip resurfaced, but ultimately retired after 37 more games. The hope is that the surgery has progressed enough since 2014, but who knows.

I tend to think Backstrom will probably play again, but along with most of y'all, am skeptical he will be anywhere close to his former self. In addition to the hip holding up, the question for me is does it take Backstrom 10 games, 40 games, or 140 games to figure out that he's not a difference maker on the ice anymore. With a $9.2M cap hit, we can't really afford to ice a 50% effective Backstrom.

 

[usiel]

Yup. Jovocop also had his hip resurfaced, but ultimately retired after 37 more games. The hope is that the surgery has progressed enough since 2014, but who knows.

I tend to think Backstrom will probably play again, but along with most of y'all, am skeptical he will be anywhere close to his former self. In addition to the hip holding up, the question for me is does it take Backstrom 10 games, 40 games, or 140 games to figure out that he's not a difference maker on the ice anymore. With a $9.2M cap hit, we can't really afford to ice a 50% effective Backstrom.

The common sense in me thinking having titanium socket/ball I mean that seems fine for normal life but bones have some flex I just worry getting your hips crushed against the boards from a hit like if something else doesn't go, sigh. I'm a glass half full guy so I guess we'll see. But as I go later in life there are more important things in life that one should look forward. I love sports but it is still just entertainment. Backstrom is the only jersey I have form this AO/Backstorm/Carson generation. He's already solidified himself as a Caps legend, imho.

 

[Rayquaza64]

The caps are in a very interesting situation for this year. Moving Lars Eller could make sense, as you have a glut of young centers trying to eventually win that spot (Protas, McMichael, Lapierre, although I would only try the first option this year, let McM and HL ride it out in Hershey) as well as a center who makes over 9 million dollars coming back very soon, making him seem like excess goods and preventing us from keeping up all our extras and/or bolstering depth if needed. I get wanting him around for injury concerns with backstrom as well as the other centers, but I feel like a cheaper yet still competent 3C with better value/more flexibility could possibly be found, whether it be internally or externally at the TDL. Just my thoughts.

 

[YippieKaey]

If Bäckström retires and Eller is traded next season we'd have 12 mil just from that. That's one superstar level player or two good top 6 players.

 

[Ridley Simon]

We disagree, I don’t see you deliberately reframing arguments to make them or the posters in favor of them sound needlessly stupid or hitting eject every time they’re pressed on something by saying it’s “been discussed” even though it’s always “discussed” just like that.

It’s GOP playbook shit and the new post is more of the same because I think you and I both know they didn’t make an honest attempt to do either of those things.

real talk, it's like half the same shit you dislike Hivemind for at this point

We are all at fault. I get it. I shouldn’t have quoted your post as a specific source to what I was saying. It was just in the moment. I apologize for that.

We are all passionate about the team, and have differing views. I will do my part and try to be as civil as possible. Maybe we all can.

And my annoyance w Hivemind has gone on for years. And years. I will own my part, and would move on. But I would be the only one to do so, and that’s too bad.

 

[YippieKaey]

We are all at fault. I get it. I shouldn’t have quoted your post as a specific source to what I was saying. It was just in the moment. I apologize for that.

We are all passionate about the team, and have differing views. I will do my part and try to be as civil as possible. Maybe we all can.

And my annoyance w Hivemind has gone on for years. And years. I will own my part, and would move on. But I would be the only one to do so, and that’s too bad.

I think that Caps HFBoards needs to work some things out in the room

 

[usiel]

I think that Caps HFBoards needs to work some things out in the room

Some of us have been debating here for god knows how many years so tempers can get short and common sense short circuited. I feel we have a good space here for people to be ok admitting some accountability. At this point in my life I'm a full accountability person. Dominantly in the work realm. The personal realm always more of a challenge naturally.

I respect everyone's right to an opinion...even if I disagree. And I don't get bent out of shape if they have a polar opposite opinion of mine. Cause at the end of the day are both made of star stuff and have earned a right for every footstep we make.

 

[Roshi]

If Bäckström retires and Eller is traded next season we'd have 12 mil just from that. That's one superstar level player or two good top 6 players.

Backstrom is owed 18 millions after this season. Nobody retires that money. Earliest I can see him retiring is september -24, when his signing bonus of 6mills for the last season has been paid.

But LTIR pretty much covers the same benefits as retirement, so if Backy cant play, thats not a problem for us.

Anyways, some of that money is going for the replacement guy. Strome is going to cost around 5mills to keep id guess (if he keeps up), or if he leaves then its a hole in the 2C once again. CMM replacing Eller also covers 863k of Ellers 3,5 mills, so its really 2,6 mills thats the left-over. That will leave us roughly 6-7 mills, but accounting that all and each of our dmans whos name doesnt have initials JC will demand rises I doubt we can hit the free agency with "the bag".

More likely we will have money to get a Brown extension kind of thing, a good middle-6 winger, and a healthy Wilson. Which is pretty cool too! And necessary aswell, as our top6 is very injury prone.

Its way way too early to put too much focus on next years team, but heres some frame Im envisioning..

Ovie (9,5) - Kuzy (7,8) - Willy (5,167)
Mantha (5,7) - Strome (5) - Oshie (5,75)
Milano (2,25) - CMM (0,863) - "Brown" (3,8)
Protas (0,79) - Dowd (1,3) - Snively (0,8)
13F (1)

"Gus" (4) - JC (8)
Jensen (4,25) - Orlov (6)
Fever (2,5) - TvR (1,5)
7D (1)

Kemps (5,25)
Charlie (1,1)

83,32 m
As the rumoured cap for 23-24 is 83,5m.

So basically, if Backy is up to go we have some "decisions". Which will likely involve saying goodbyes for Strome and "replacing" "Brown" from the lineup with a 1millions guy like MaJo and bargaining for life with the rest of the free agents.

 

[YippieKaey]

Some of us have been debating here for god knows how many years so tempers can get short and common sense short circuited. I feel we have a good space here for people to be ok admitting some accountability. At this point in my life I'm a full accountability person. Dominantly in the work realm. The personal realm always more of a challenge naturally.

I respect everyone's right to an opinion...even if I disagree. And I don't get bent out of shape if they have a polar opposite opinion of mine. Cause at the end of the day are both made of star stuff and have earned a right for every footstep we make.

Yeah for sure. And we all want the same thing, just differences in method. But, civil dialogue is way harder than people think (it's part of my job). But, the beautiful thing about it is that when we fail at dialoguing, it is usually due to our pro-social programming. I always try to keep that in mind even though i of course always fail.

 

[barriers]

 

[Ridley Simon]

So NAK/Snively sits. That’s an easy move.

After that, it will get harder.

 

[twabby]

These are some good lines. Have to keep Strome and Ovechkin together.

(Ovechkin is at +11% away from Strome)

 

[DWGie26]

Backstrom is owed 18 millions after this season. Nobody retires that money. Earliest I can see him retiring is september -24, when his signing bonus of 6mills for the last season has been paid.

But LTIR pretty much covers the same benefits as retirement, so if Backy cant play, thats not a problem for us.

Anyways, some of that money is going for the replacement guy. Strome is going to cost around 5mills to keep id guess (if he keeps up), or if he leaves then its a hole in the 2C once again. CMM replacing Eller also covers 863k of Ellers 3,5 mills, so its really 2,6 mills thats the left-over. That will leave us roughly 6-7 mills, but accounting that all and each of our dmans whos name doesnt have initials JC will demand rises I doubt we can hit the free agency with "the bag".

More likely we will have money to get a Brown extension kind of thing, a good middle-6 winger, and a healthy Wilson. Which is pretty cool too! And necessary aswell, as our top6 is very injury prone.

Its way way too early to put too much focus on next years team, but heres some frame Im envisioning..

Ovie (9,5) - Kuzy (7,8) - Willy (5,167)
Mantha (5,7) - Strome (5) - Oshie (5,75)
Milano (2,25) - CMM (0,863) - "Brown" (3,8)
Protas (0,79) - Dowd (1,3) - Snively (0,8)
13F (1)

"Gus" (4) - JC (8)
Jensen (4,25) - Orlov (6)
Fever (2,5) - TvR (1,5)
7D (1)

Kemps (5,25)
Charlie (1,1)

83,32 m
As the rumoured cap for 23-24 is 83,5m.

So basically, if Backy is up to go we have some "decisions". Which will likely involve saying goodbyes for Strome and "replacing" "Brown" from the lineup with a 1millions guy like MaJo and bargaining for life with the rest of the free agents.

I think some of these numbers are high. Gus for example has had one big contract that was 3M per year. If he wants more than that, we don’t need to resign him. Really 2 - 2.5M and I’d keep him. Otherwise I’m looking at farm With Johansen and Alexyev and even Nardella. Jensen and Orlov are about right but factor in hometown discount and I hope we can get that. Suspect TVR might get more like 2M. I wouldn’t resign Brown and Milano will be more like 1.5M But I’d like him back. Also like Sheary back. Fine with Mojo, Eller, Hags, and Hathaway going out. Hard calls but it is time to move on to next generation.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I’ll happily admit I was wrong here. Thought that Oshie would for sure be out longer term. No idea how he went from not being able to take a stride and needing to be helped off the ice to missing only six games but hey, that’s good news. Hopefully he’s not rushing himself back and he’s actually fully healthy.