Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[twabby]

I mean….I‘m not worried about Buffalo or Ottawa unless they come offering him 4x$5 (or more)….

what‘s your salary prediction site have him at? Orlov?

As of last offseason Evolving Hockey has Orlov at 5 x $6.05M and Jensen at 4 x $3.25M as their most likely outcomes. These numbers will update later on in the season as their performances and market conditions become apparent, but as of now that’s what they have.

 

[Ridley Simon]

As of last offseason Evolving Hockey has Orlov at 5 x $6.05M and Jensen at 4 x $3.25M as their most likely outcomes. These numbers will update later on in the season as their performances and market conditions become apparent, but as of now that’s what they have.

Wow. I’d have thought more for each. Guess I’m off. Those numbers should easily be taken by the Caps. 2 more mil per year (or so) over current should be an easy swallow.

 

[Brian23]

As of last offseason Evolving Hockey has Orlov at 5 x $6.05M and Jensen at 4 x $3.25M as their most likely outcomes. These numbers will update later on in the season as their performances and market conditions become apparent, but as of now that’s what they have.

This sounds right for Orlov, but I think Jensen is a bit low.

I love Orlov, not sure I'd want 5 years at 6 million. I think 3 x 6.5 sounds about right, if they're gong to 5 years I'd rather it be under 6 I think.

Jense feels like a 4x4 guy at a minimum, anything less then that would probably be a bit of a steal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

As of last offseason Evolving Hockey has Orlov at 5 x $6.05M and Jensen at 4 x $3.25M as their most likely outcomes. These numbers will update later on in the season as their performances and market conditions become apparent, but as of now that’s what they have.

If the Caps can get Jensen for 4x3.25, they should take it and run….

Obv if he gets to the FA period, he’s gone.

I think if they offered 5/19m or something, he may take it.

hmm….rethinking….not terrible….

 

[YippieKaey]

The thing about both Orlov & Jensen, Jensen in particular, is that they are very reliant on being fast and agile skaters. That ability is something that will diminish rapidly in 2-3 years for both guys, which should be taken into account when considering their long term future here.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The thing about both Orlov & Jensen, Jensen in particular, is that they are very reliant on being fast and agile skaters. That ability is something that will diminish rapidly in 2-3 years for both guys, which should be taken into account when considering their long term future here.

Maybe. Jensen is known for his wheels. But he doesn’t seem like a player who will lose that, save injury.

And as many have stated before, 4-5 yrs from now isn’t really the “thing” here. It’s the Ovy chase/years to manage. Which is 4yrs. If you over pay after that, who cares?

Net net — if they can get Orlov/Jensen done for combined under 10m, that’s the high end, IMO, that they can afford. 9m is probably the absolute low end. Anything in between should be automatic.

 

[Roshi]

For TvR i dont think theres much of market to squeeze from and thats a good thing for us. Most teams like to go with their homegrown guys, like LuJo and AA would be for us, but i dont know.. i like Trevor and wouldnt mind a bit to bring him back. He has been the kind of guy thats always there and does his job and you never hear any whining or mooding or whatever. Just looks happy to be a part of the group and you can always count on him to do his part. That has value.

Everyone should have a Trevor in their life.

 

[philip]

When is Thomas due back, does anyone know? Has he much further to go in his recovery?

 

[crazy8888]

Wow. I’d have thought more for each. Guess I’m off. Those numbers should easily be taken by the Caps. 2 more mil per year (or so) over current should be an easy swallow.

Yea its definitely going to be more for both. Pretty sure they will keep 1 and the other one walks.

 

[Random schmoe]

When is Thomas due back, does anyone know? Has he much further to go in his recovery?

"Thomas".... Wilson?

We don't know specifics, but he's close, he's skating normally in practice on an extra line. He's been ruled out for the game today, but it is sounding like he could be back within the next week.

He could end up playing a game or three on a conditioning assignment in the AHL first, before making his return to the Caps lineup.

 

[philip]

"Thomas".... Wilson?

We don't know specifics, but he's close, he's skating normally in practice on an extra line. He's been ruled out for the game today, but it is sounding like he could be back within the next week.

He could end up playing a game or three on a conditioning assignment in the AHL first, before making his return to the Caps lineup.

Oh wow, that's great news. He's a big strong boy so you'd expect it wouldn't take him long to get back up to speed, but you're right a few games to blow the cobwebs off could be in order.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

DSP announced his retirement. Thanks, Devo, for a wonderful spring in 2018. Legend.

 

[Jags]

Based on what? He’s recently shown he’s ready to play at this level and was a high pick.

Yeah, but he's also recently underscored the fact that he's injured more often than he plays. He may have some value, but nothing that would move the needle in a major trade.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah, but he's also recently underscored the fact that he's injured more often than he plays. He may have some value, but nothing that would move the needle in a major trade.

as part of a CMM/Jimi +1st +AA type package…..I disagree….so 3rd component in a big deal IMO. that’s not chopped liver.

 

[Jags]

I still think these statement about Lavi and young players is a false narrative. What is fair is that he prefers veterans.

This is the crux of the issue right here, and the disconnect between you two. Preferring a veteran to the exclusion of young players is what's actually happening. This is why it's always better when your coach and GM are in lockstep. We've had a series of coaches that prefer vets and a GM that seems to want his coach to implement youth but for some reason constantly supplies those coaches with the vets required to ignore those young players.

It's not a knock against Irwin or NAK or Eller to say that we have prospects champing at the bit for those spots that will only ever blossom if they're given the chance to. Embrace natural turnover. Identify the squeaky wheels when they first start squeaking so you can deal them while they still have value. Then you can promote your qualified youngsters to save you millions against the cap. That constant churn can keep a team perpetually competitive if they draft well. We're barely doing any of that despite having the tools to do all of it.

It's like driving around on 4 tires that are still doing the job but are real close to blowing out when you have 4 new ones sitting in your garage. Hershey mounted and balanced them, but they'll never do you any good until you put them on the f***ing car.

 

[Jags]

as part of a CMM/Jimi +1st +AA type package…..I disagree….so 3rd component in a big deal IMO. that’s not chopped liver.

AA is as close to chopped liver as it gets. All pedigree, no actual NHL production, and a staggering injury history. His "value" is all potential based on that pedigree. In actuality, he's a borderline NHLer that spends more time on a stretcher than an ice rink.

He's ours, so I'd love to be optimistic and certainly hope it works out for him. But right now his value to other teams is marginal at best. If the throw-in on this never-gonna-happen deal you're envisioning is a D prospect, AA would be a few spots down on the Avs' want list.

 

[Ridley Simon]

AA is as close to chopped liver as it gets. All pedigree, no actual NHL production, and a staggering injury history. His "value" is all potential based on that pedigree. In actuality, he's a borderline NHLer that spends more time on a stretcher than an ice rink.

He's ours, so I'd love to be optimistic and certainly hope it works out for him. But right now his value to other teams is marginal at best. If the throw-in on this never-gonna-happen deal you're envisioning is a D prospect, AA would be a few spots down on the Avs' want list.

Who from the Avs is the target? I can’t see the Avs trading for futures??

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think everyone that is “pining” for youth to be served, will get their wish next season. They have so many FA’s, it’s bound to leave a lot of holes. Regardless if filled with current players or other FA’s.

Pretty hard to play the “use the FA game” to fill 10 slots (or whatever it’s going to be)

 

[DWGie26]

Yes, this offseason will be a good opportunity to get rid of a couple/few over 30 year olds. Think we’ll still keep a couple like Orlov and Sheary both whom are super valuable and productive. Gus will be a very interesting decision. He probably comes reasonably cheap (1.5M-2M), but that closes off one or both of Johansen and Alexyev.

 

[DWGie26]

AA is as close to chopped liver as it gets. All pedigree, no actual NHL production, and a staggering injury history. His "value" is all potential based on that pedigree. In actuality, he's a borderline NHLer that spends more time on a stretcher than an ice rink.

He's ours, so I'd love to be optimistic and certainly hope it works out for him. But right now his value to other teams is marginal at best. If the throw-in on this never-gonna-happen deal you're envisioning is a D prospect, AA would be a few spots down on the Avs' want list.

Classic example of worth more to us than anyone else. This is why i have said I think he would clear waivers.

For now though, while he is healthy, I’d prefer to see him playing 3RD over Irwin. This is a veteran who can sit on the bench and pulled back in when needed.

 

[Hivemind]

The most common reason a relatively high drafted player busts is injuries.

However, not all injured prospects bust (see Gabriel Vilardi's breakout this season for an example of a prospect overcoming extensive injuries).

Given his extensive injury history, Alexeyev is a high-risk, medium-reward prospect at this point. He's unlikely to return much if moved, but there's enough upside to warrant giving him an extended look in the NHL now that he's healthy and Irwin has regressed back into being, well, Irwin.

 

[twabby]

What I'm hearing about injury timelines for Backstrom, Wilson, Carlson, Oshie

The Capitals' injury situation has been dire this season but is about to get better, especially up front.

theathletic.com

Backstrom, Wilson, and Oshie should be ready in early/mid January.

Carlson is out for months. Tarik has him pegged to return late in the regular season.

 

[Random schmoe]

What Twabby said.

 

[g00n]

What I'm hearing about injury timelines for Backstrom, Wilson, Carlson, Oshie

The Capitals' injury situation has been dire this season but is about to get better, especially up front.

theathletic.com

Backstrom, Wilson, and Oshie should be ready in early/mid January.

Carlson is out for months. Tarik has him pegged to return late in the regular season.

Figured it wasn't just a chopped up ear for Carlson but what in the world can keep him out for months but not need surgery?

Probably a broken bone that won't benefit from being repaired and just needs to mend?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is the crux of the issue right here, and the disconnect between you two. Preferring a veteran to the exclusion of young players is what's actually happening. This is why it's always better when your coach and GM are in lockstep. We've had a series of coaches that prefer vets and a GM that seems to want his coach to implement youth but for some reason constantly supplies those coaches with the vets required to ignore those young players.

It's not a knock against Irwin or NAK or Eller to say that we have prospects champing at the bit for those spots that will only ever blossom if they're given the chance to. Embrace natural turnover. Identify the squeaky wheels when they first start squeaking so you can deal them while they still have value. Then you can promote your qualified youngsters to save you millions against the cap. That constant churn can keep a team perpetually competitive if they draft well. We're barely doing any of that despite having the tools to do all of it.

It's like driving around on 4 tires that are still doing the job but are real close to blowing out when you have 4 new ones sitting in your garage. Hershey mounted and balanced them, but they'll never do you any good until you put them on the f***ing car.

Preferring the currently better players is what’s happening.