Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

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Hivemind

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John Carlson has been the least of our issues in the regular and postseason. he makes a lot of money and has some rough moments but if we don't have Carlson we don't just start magically going on cup runs :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

As for the deadline, I don't see the need to make any moves, maybe a big splash if injuries continue but if fully healthy not entirely sure we have the need (or the cap space really:laugh:) to do much
John Carlson has been one of their biggest issues in the post-season. He has just one even-strengh point in the past two post-seasons combined. He's a net -18 in the post-season since they won the Cup. He's scored just one post-season goal since they won the Cup. He's got the worst post-season 5v5 GF%, CF%, FF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and basically every other metric of any defenseman still with the Capitals since they won the Cup. And he's failing the eye test just as hard as both the traditional stats and "fancy stats."



Since the Cup win, Carlson is has been the biggest individual issue with the Capitals in the post-season, bar none.
 

Roshi

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Yeah theres actually a positive side on all the injuries, as we are in a playoffs-fight and instead of deadline deals we have our own reserve. We are already adding a top6 powerforward, 2C pp-wizard, fourth line depth player and young capable dman to the current roster. And maybe Brown for the playoffs aswell. That kind of haul would take multiple high picks and a-prospects to get from the market :)

Though if JC misses real time we are in trouble. The D is doing well to replace JCs input for now, but that likely isnt sustainable for a longer period.
 
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bacchist

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He's got the worst post-season 5v5 GF%, CF%, FF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and basically every other metric of any defenseman still with the Capitals since they won the Cup.
That's literally just Orlov, right? One other player?
 

barriers

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Could today be the day Snively is finally waived with players becoming healthy enough to play?
 

YippieKaey

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From what i saw of Snively last year i was impressed. Like a poor mans Daniel Sprong with better effort levels. A Conor Sheary light perhaps.

I'd prefer keeping him on the roster given his cheapness and the fact that he brings some needed speed to this team.
 

g00n

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Osh maybe going to make me look dumb when I said he’d be out until end of January. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong if that’s the case.



Full contact less than 2 weeks after injury means it probably isn't hernia, more likely some kind of core/ab strain or inflammation that needed to settle down.
 

AlexModvechkin8

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Full contact less than 2 weeks after injury means it probably isn't hernia, more likely some kind of core/ab strain or inflammation that needed to settle down.
It seems pretty surprising he’s able to be skating less than two weeks after not being able to take a stride. I’m skeptical he’ll be back at full strength any time soon but again, I’d be happy to be wrong.
 

g00n

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It seems pretty surprising he’s able to be skating less than two weeks after not being able to take a stride. I’m skeptical he’ll be back at full strength any time soon but again, I’d be happy to be wrong.

I'm guessing an "abundance of caution" shutdown and rest period based on fears of an older, worse injury being reaggravated.

Right before he got hurt he was going pretty hard from what I saw. Full mobility and playing well.
 

twabby

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They probably shouldn't shut Oshie down, but if they are pretty comfortably in a playoff position down the stretch that is one guy they should rest to minimize the chance of an injury.

But for now they probably just have to go with the flow and expect another injury or three the rest of the season.
 

Midnight Judges

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From what i saw of Snively last year i was impressed. Like a poor mans Daniel Sprong with better effort levels. A Conor Sheary light perhaps.

I'd prefer keeping him on the roster given his cheapness and the fact that he brings some needed speed to this team.

Snively earned some more chances imo. What was he, a half ppg despite very low minutes? Not too shabby.
 
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Hivemind

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That's literally just Orlov, right? One other player?
No, it's among every current Capitals defenseman since they've joined the Capitals. Orlov, Jensen, and TvR have all played playoff games for the Capitals.

Generally speaking, it's only Orpik's last season and/or Djoos' only 3 2019 playoff games that trail Carlson (although it can vary slightly by category). It's not usually guys like Schultz or Niskanen that spent multiple seasons that will trail Carlson in these post-season statistics.
 

Hivemind

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sorry to break up the Carlson discussion, but was wondering about our 3C center next year. Does Protas replace Eller?
Assuming Strome stays (which I think most of us hope he does), it should be a 4-way competition between Dowd, McMichael, Lapierre, and Protas for the 3C gig. Protas has the additional flexibility of being able to slot into multiple wing spots.

That being said, with 11 UFAs this off-season, there's going to be significantly change to the roster a whole and it's likely that there's substantial changes in multiple portions of the line-up.
 

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Could today be the day Snively is finally waived with players becoming healthy enough to play?
It is interesting with Snively. Seemed like he was well liked by staff and definitely added a speed and scoring element. Then they chose to sign Milano instead of playing Snively. They tried Snively in 4th line role and that didn’t work so he is middle 6 or bust. I suspect they are now just trying to keep him under the radar so they can sneak him through waivers. He is on a two year, one-way contract so that may scare some people off.
 
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DWGie26

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Someone should definitely go for him, and in a vacuum he could fit a long-term need for the Capitals. But with how Laviolette handles young forward development, I don't see this as an ideal landing space to unlock Lafreniere's potential.
I still think these statement about Lavi and young players is a false narrative. What is fair is that he prefers veterans. He runs a very complex system that prioritizes high hockey IQ, consistency, and two-way play. That is hard for players transitioning from juniors/AHL to NHL level. But Fever is developing fine. As is Protas. Malensyn when he is healthy has been good. Then you have “young“ players that are developing in his system including Strome, NAK, and Milano (all 26 and under).

Would i want Lavi to be the coach in a rebuild… not at all. There are others more suited for that. But that is not where we are. We are in a win today mode. So the best players who can play in the system are going to get the ice time. McMichel wasn’t ready for that this year And he needs to grow. There weren’t spots for AJF and Leason In our lineup. As we now know, MJ90 is better (today) than AJF. NAK better than Leason. We kept Snively but he hasn’t earned a spot. That’s not Lavi’s fault. It’s on the players. Because players can definitely be rookies and play for lavi. But not all can.
 

DWGie26

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Assuming Strome stays (which I think most of us hope he does), it should be a 4-way competition between Dowd, McMichael, Lapierre, and Protas for the 3C gig. Protas has the additional flexibility of being able to slot into multiple wing spots.

That being said, with 11 UFAs this off-season, there's going to be significantly change to the roster a whole and it's likely that there's substantial changes in multiple portions of the line-up.
I think you have to assume (for Cap purposes) that Backstrom will be 3C. Protas and McMichael will both be waivers exempt again next year (just confirmed on CapFriendly). Those are your center depth pieces and likely to be playing wing in NHL until needed at Centre. Lapierre still needs to develop and get bigger.

It’s going to be hard to say ”bye” to Lars because he has been an important part of this team but with all of those centers, something has to give. But i don’t think we can do that in season given the playoff position we are in.
 

Calicaps

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It is interesting with Snively. Seemed like he was well liked by staff and definitely added a speed and scoring element. Then they chose to sign Milano instead of playing Snively. They tried Snively in 4th line role and that didn’t work so he is middle 6 or bust. I suspect they are now just trying to keep him under the radar so they can sneak him through waivers. He is on a two year, one-way contract so that may scare some people off.
My sense was that they saw Milano was available for free and thought, WTH? He has the tools to be very very good. That Snively was the odd man out as a result I think is just unfortunate luck.
 

YippieKaey

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I still think these statement about Lavi and young players is a false narrative. What is fair is that he prefers veterans. He runs a very complex system that prioritizes high hockey IQ, consistency, and two-way play. That is hard for players transitioning from juniors/AHL to NHL level. But Fever is developing fine. As is Protas. Malensyn when he is healthy has been good. Then you have “young“ players that are developing in his system including Strome, NAK, and Milano (all 26 and under).

Would i want Lavi to be the coach in a rebuild… not at all. There are others more suited for that. But that is not where we are. We are in a win today mode. So the best players who can play in the system are going to get the ice time. McMichel wasn’t ready for that this year And he needs to grow. There weren’t spots for AJF and Leason In our lineup. As we now know, MJ90 is better (today) than AJF. NAK better than Leason. We kept Snively but he hasn’t earned a spot. That’s not Lavi’s fault. It’s on the players. Because players can definitely be rookies and play for lavi. But not all can.

I know this is the party line but i'd argue we're in a retool to stay competitive mode
 
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Hivemind

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I still think these statement about Lavi and young players is a false narrative. What is fair is that he prefers veterans. He runs a very complex system that prioritizes high hockey IQ, consistency, and two-way play. That is hard for players transitioning from juniors/AHL to NHL level. But Fever is developing fine. As is Protas. Malensyn when he is healthy has been good. Then you have “young“ players that are developing in his system including Strome, NAK, and Milano (all 26 and under).

Would i want Lavi to be the coach in a rebuild… not at all. There are others more suited for that. But that is not where we are. We are in a win today mode. So the best players who can play in the system are going to get the ice time. McMichel wasn’t ready for that this year And he needs to grow. There weren’t spots for AJF and Leason In our lineup. As we now know, MJ90 is better (today) than AJF. NAK better than Leason. We kept Snively but he hasn’t earned a spot. That’s not Lavi’s fault. It’s on the players. Because players can definitely be rookies and play for lavi. But not all can.
It's anything but a false narrative.

First off, I specified forwards, which narrows the equation a fair bit (although a separate conversation could be had about Fehervary being the general exception that proves the rule).

Even you have to use quotations around "young" to justify your perspective, knowing full well that guys like Strome, NAK, and Milano are not what people are referring to when it comes to developing young forwards under Laviolette. Strome has 310 games of NHL experience at this point, and all three of them at least on their third NHL franchise (with NAK on his 4th). Both NAK and Milano will be 27 in May.

Malenstyn is 24, 6 years removed from his NHL draft, and has a whopping 20 games of NHL experience at this point. Claiming him as a Laviolette development success is pretty ridiculous. I won't even get into the debate about whether or not his less than 44 minutes of ice time in the NHL this year was good.

Laviolette's system is not something overly fancy or "complex." It's a pretty standard 2-1-2 spread forecheck (although he calls it a 2-3). You can hear him break down most of his system yourself if you're interested. There's not really anything in his system that an NHL prospect would not have experienced in competitive hockey before. He's not doing any Adam Oates-ian micromanagement of players, or a novel neutral zone trap like Guy Boucher, or even an old school defensive zone scheme from hockey antiquity like Bruce Boudreau. It's carry the puck in, pass if you can't, dump as the last option, with a 2-1-2 in pursuit, 1-2-2 neutral zone trap in defensive transition, and Box+1 in your own zone. Nothing atypical.

Protas is as close to a development success of a forward the Capitals have had with Laviolette, and at this point he only has 16 career points in 70 NHL games receiving 4th line minutes, and he's actually seeing less TOI (and less PP time) in his 2nd NHL season than he saw in his 1st. He's not exactly going to be running away with a bunch of Calder votes. Turning a D+3 player into a 4th liner isn't exactly beating the development curve. Compare the development of McMichael and Lapierre to similarly drafted Capitals forwards in the past, and how far they're lagging behind guys like Burakovsky and Johansson in NHL experience at the same ages.

You seek justifications for why younger players didn't make it after the fact. "If Lavi didn't play them, they must not have been ready to play the system." McMichael has been debated to death on this forum, so I don't want to rehash that, but suffice to say that his ice time last season had no linkage to how well he was or wasn't playing (and far inferior veteran skaters would often get ice time over him when in direct competition for minutes even after those veterans committed egregious mistakes). Now you're heaping that same post-hoc justification logic onto other players. Snively was praised for "earning his spot" and "seizing the opportunity" last season, but after less than 60 minutes of ice time this year he didn't "earn a spot" and hasn't played a game in 6 weeks.

Your logic is that "rookies can play for Lavi" but if they don't, it must be the players fault. You don't see how that's a self-justifying prophecy? If they play, it's because of Lavi. But if they don't, in your eyes it's because of the player. Yet, we've seen repeated examples (including before his time in Washington) that Laviolette applies different standards to veteran forwards than he does to prospects and younger players. Just look at Kevin Fiala's breakout as soon as he got to Minnesota, compared to what he did under Laviolette in Nashville.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

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I know this is the party line but i'd argue we're in a retool to stay competitive mode
That’s still “win today”. Their goal is to win games now and qualify for the postseason and hope to get on a roll.

When the opportunities to improve present themselves, we will see them continuously retool.
 

DWGie26

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It's anything but a false narrative.

First off, I specified forwards, which narrows the equation a fair bit (although a separate conversation could be had about Fehervary being the general exception that proves the rule).

Even you have to use quotations around "young" to justify your perspective, knowing full well that guys like Strome, NAK, and Milano are not what people are referring to when it comes to developing young forwards under Laviolette. Strome has 310 games of NHL experience at this point, and all three of them at least on their third NHL franchise (with NAK on his 4th). Both NAK and Milano will be 27 in May.

Malenstyn is 24, 6 years removed from his NHL draft, and has a whopping 20 games of NHL experience at this point. Claiming him as a Laviolette development success is pretty ridiculous. I won't even get into the debate about whether or not his less than 44 minutes of ice time in the NHL this year was good.

Laviolette's system is not something overly fancy or "complex." It's a pretty standard 2-1-2 spread forecheck (although he calls it a 2-3). You can hear him break down most of his system yourself if you're interested. There's not really anything in his system that an NHL prospect would not have experienced in competitive hockey before. He's not doing any Adam Oates-ian micromanagement of players, or a novel neutral zone trap like Guy Boucher, or even an old school defensive zone scheme from hockey antiquity like Bruce Boudreau. It's carry the puck in, pass if you can't, dump as the last option, with a 2-1-2 in pursuit, 1-2-2 neutral zone trap in defensive transition, and Box+1 in your own zone. Nothing atypical.

Protas is as close to a development success of a forward the Capitals have had with Laviolette, and at this point he only has 16 career points in 70 NHL games receiving 4th line minutes, and he's actually seeing less TOI (and less PP time) in his 2nd NHL season than he saw in his 1st. He's not exactly going to be running away with a bunch of Calder votes. Turning a D+3 player into a 4th liner isn't exactly beating the development curve. Compare the development of McMichael and Lapierre to similarly drafted Capitals forwards in the past, and how far they're lagging behind guys like Burakovsky and Johansson in NHL experience at the same ages.

You seek justifications for why younger players didn't make it after the fact. "If Lavi didn't play them, they must not have been ready to play the system." McMichael has been debated to death on this forum, so I don't want to rehash that, but suffice to say that his ice time last season had no linkage to how well he was or wasn't playing (and far inferior veteran skaters would often get ice time over him when in direct competition for minutes even after those veterans committed egregious mistakes). Now you're heaping that same post-hoc justification logic onto other players. Snively was praised for "earning his spot" and "seizing the opportunity" last season, but after less than 60 minutes of ice time this year he didn't "earn a spot" and hasn't played a game in 6 weeks.

Your logic is that "rookies can play for Lavi" but if they don't, it must be the players fault. You don't see how that's a self-justifying prophecy? If they play, it's because of Lavi. But if they don't, in your eyes it's because of the player. Yet, we've seen repeated examples (including before his time in Washington) that Laviolette applies different standards to veteran forwards than he does to prospects and younger players. Just look at Kevin Fiala's breakout as soon as he got to Minnesota, compared to what he did under Laviolette in Nashville.
Reading this is exhausting. You hate Lavi. You think CMM and other youngsters should be gifted a spot. I disagree. I think Lavi is a good coach, has had a lot of success (arguable as much as any active coach). He knows how to evaluate talent and he is a systems guy. Bottom line is that youngsters (I consider that 26 and under on our old team) can earn playing time. Many of them haven’t. I’m not mad about a single player we have lost because I understand it is part of the game. Someone like Stevenson is just like someone like Gustuffson. Didn’t find success in Caps system and did in Vegas. Gus didn’t find success in Chicago system and is finding it here.
 
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