Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

 

[Marshall]

Not a huge fancistats guy, but the below both pleasantly surprised me and makes me feel better about something I like, so I'm posting it.



(Ed - fixed link)

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Not a huge fancistats guy, but the below both pleasantly surprised me and makes me feel better about something I like, so I'm posting it.



(Ed - fixed link)

Was going to post this. 4 out of the top 11 teams are in the Metro, tough division.

 

[Hivemind]

Not a huge fancistats guy, but the below both pleasantly surprised me and makes me feel better about something I like, so I'm posting it.



(Ed - fixed link)

This also emphasizes that Florida is likely to continue gaining ground in the playoff race as well.

 

[YippieKaey]

Gotta admit i did not think the team would be able to crawl back into a playoff spot. Sure, they have games in hand and there's a lot of season left but still a pretty impressive feat.

On an unrelated note: Does anyone have a good recipe for crow?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

MoneyPuck is pretty bullish on the Caps. They have them with the sixth highest percentage to win the Cup.

 

[marcel snapshot]

MP also somewhat bearish on Rangers. Is it weighted toward recent results?

 

[g00n]

MP also somewhat bearish on Rangers. Is it weighted toward recent results?

Probably.

The Caps have been hot for the past month and we're nearly halfway through the season with roughly 2 and a half months played.

Caps were mostly ass for the first 20 games and have been pouring it on for the last 16.

They were about a .500 team in Oct, stunk for the first 3 weeks of Nov, and have gone 12-3-1 since then, including 9-1 in their last 10.

Only the Canes at 9-0-1 are better over the past 10 games.

One team in the West has 7 wins in recent 10, and two teams (Pens, Rongos) are at 8 games in the East.

So that's 4 other teams close to the Caps in terms of recent surges, while based on points% Caps are only 15th.

Very likely this metric is just weighting recent 10 more than other games.

 

[g00n]

I don't think Kuzy has been shit recently. Maybe not scoring goals as much as you'd hope, so not going to panic.

 

[max21]

I thought Kuzy looked great last night, his forecheck and against the boards was noticeable last night. He still definitely goes for the highlight reel goal a bit too much. It would be cool if he was scoring a bit more though

 

[Carlzner]

 

[Jags]

Very likely this metric is just weighting recent 10 more than other games.

They're laying betting odds, so it's everything. Overall record, recent XX games, and specific issues all the way down to individual players. So if a team is on a streak and healthy, it all gets weighed together pretty evenly. If a team dips but has key players out that are returning soon, that mitigates the weight of the down streak.

In our case, a lot of things are breaking our way recently. We're on a winning streak despite having key players out, which weighs in our favor. Getting Orlov and Kuemper back, news about Wilson/Backstrom getting closer, winning without Oshie despite his measurable positive impact -- all those things tip the algorithm our way a little.

Ranking us high right now protects their line from people betting now on playoff outcomes.

 

[DWGie26]

Was reading GDT from Ottawa game about what has spurred on the winning streak.

to me it is all about the system being played very well right now. Took my brother to game last night (huge Caps fan but out of town) and I was explaining the system we are playing about 5 man rotation, activating the dee, and not really going for punishing hits. More about keeping proper gaps and forcing opposition to outside. System play is very strong right now.

 

[RedRocking]

Was reading GDT from Ottawa game about what has spurred on the winning streak.

to me it is all about the system being played very well right now. Took my brother to game last night (huge Caps fan but out of town) and I was explaining the system we are playing about 5 man rotation, activating the dee, and not really going for punishing hits. More about keeping proper gaps and forcing opposition to outside. System play is very strong right now.

Yup, the system working well, coupled with really good team D, and great goaltending.

You have to give Lavi a lot of credit (which I know most are loathe to do). His system has allowed for a consistent level of play - even in the face of all the injuries, and ever changing lineups.

 

[Random schmoe]

Not awesome, but at least he'll be home for Christmas vs the Hospital.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

MoneyPuck has the Caps 4th in their power rankings. There is weighting for recent play but I don’t think anyone thought the Caps would be 4th in anything this season maybe drafting 4th overall if the wheels really fell off.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Any update on Carlson’s condition?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Any update on Carlson’s condition?

Released from the hospital, out indefinitely. No other details have been made public yet.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Released from the hospital, out indefinitely. No other details have been made public yet.

Isn’t it odd that the nature of the injury (e.g., UBI, etc.) hasn’t been disclosed?

 

[BallardEra]

Isn’t it odd that the nature of the injury (e.g., UBI, etc.) hasn’t been disclosed?

I think he ate one in the cheek very close to the eye. Maybe some teeth damaged too. I don't think it was his ear.

 

[MaximusT]

MoneyPuck does seem very bullish on the Caps making the POs - 88% chance vs. the Rangers at 49%, who are in the slot above them. Without reading too much into their methodology, I wonder how much of that factors in ease of remaining schedule. Given the uncertainty around Wilson, Backie, Carlson, Oshie, etc. seems overly optimistic but I am hopeful!

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Caps are going to need to do something to shore up the defense if Carlson is out indefinitely which it sounds like he is as Lavi confirmed today.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Caps are going to need to do something to shore up the defense if Carlson is out indefinitely which it sounds like he is as Lavi confirmed today.

Wait, aren't they shoring up their defense w/out him in the line-up?

ps I feel the lack of JC420 is the least of our worries. IIRC: Our D looked pretty good before he came back from his last injury. In fact, him re-entering the line-up coincided with our losing streak.

 

[YippieKaey]

Wait, aren't they shoring up their defense w/out him in the line-up?

ps I feel the lack of JC420 is the least of our worries. IIRC: Our D looked pretty good before he came back from his last injury. In fact, him re-entering the line-up coincided with our losing streak.

I mean all jokes aside JC74 is the second best offensive player on this team. Absolutely a key piece.

 

[DWGie26]

Wait, aren't they shoring up their defense w/out him in the line-up?

ps I feel the lack of JC420 is the least of our worries. IIRC: Our D looked pretty good before he came back from his last injury. In fact, him re-entering the line-up coincided with our losing streak

The JC420 line cracked me Up! Well done.

But your note on them playing well without him is way off. Caps were 1-3-2 when JC74 was out.

In terms of them brining someone in to replace him… doubt it. The caps defense is predicated on systems. Alexyev, Fever, and Johansen are all better options for the system and are free.