Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[DWGie26]

Roster crunch squeezes out young NHL-ready prospect. Common occurrence here.

Yep… the goal is to make the roster better. Drafting and developing talent is one path. But there are other ways to make the roster better.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yep… the goal is to make the roster better. Drafting and developing talent is one path. But there are other ways to make the roster better.

Yup….I mean Leason for Milano (essentially) is looking like genius…

 

[Hivemind]

Reading this is exhausting. You hate Lavi. You think CMM and other youngsters should be gifted a spot. I disagree. I think Lavi is a good coach, has had a lot of success (arguable as much as any active coach). He knows how to evaluate talent and he is a systems guy. Bottom line is that youngsters (I consider that 26 and under on our old team) can earn playing time. Many of them haven’t. I’m not mad about a single player we have lost because I understand it is part of the game. Someone like Stevenson is just like someone like Gustuffson. Didn’t find success in Caps system and did in Vegas. Gus didn’t find success in Chicago system and is finding it here.

I don't hate Lavi. I don't think anyone should be gifted a spot. I didn't say any of those things, or even anything close to them. You're arguing against a straw man now.

I disagree with how Laviolette handles young talent. I think there are young players who have absolutely earned far more ice time than Lavi has given them, and veteran players that Laviolette has given a substantially longer leash than their current levels of play has warranted. That's not saying anyone should be "gifted" a spot or that I "hate" Laviolette. It's a specific disagreement area, and one that a lot of other people on this board happen to agree with. It's one that's supported by history, both in Washington and his prior stints. It's an opinion that is pretty clearly established by the current Capitals, unless you bend your interpretation to count players who have a couple dozen games in Washington (or less in the case of NAK) after being in the NHL for 6+ years across 3+ franchises to fit your definition of "developing young forwards."

(Also Gustafsson didn't find success in Chicago? Huh? He had a 60 point season in Chicago)

 

[usiel]

Yup….I mean Leason for Milano (essentially) is looking like genius…

4 points vs 16 points.

 

[DWGie26]

I don't hate Lavi. I don't think anyone should be gifted a spot. I didn't say any of those things, or even anything close to them. You're arguing against a straw man now.

I disagree with how Laviolette handles young talent. I think there are young players who have absolutely earned far more ice time than Lavi has given them, and veteran players that Laviolette has given a substantially longer leash than their current levels of play has warranted. That's not saying anyone should be "gifted" a spot or that I "hate" Laviolette. It's a specific disagreement area, and one that a lot of other people on this board happen to agree with. It's one that's supported by history, both in Washington and his prior stints. It's an opinion that is pretty clearly established by the current Capitals, unless you bend your interpretation to count players who have a couple dozen games in Washington (or less in the case of NAK) after being in the NHL for 6+ years across 3+ franchises to fit your definition of "developing young forwards."

(Also Gustafsson didn't find success in Chicago? Huh? He had a 60 point season in Chicago)

You have said all of those things directly and indirectly across the course of the season.

Here is something i have been saying all season. it’s not Lavi’s job to gift developmental time. It is his job to ice the best set of players who gives the Caps the best chance to win. When they were sucking, he stuck with the vets and guess what… it paid off.

To be clear, I would like to see the young guys play as well. But yeah, lavi isn’t going to sit veteran players like MoJo, Kuzy, Hathaway, Mantha or other highly paid veterans. Our arguing over it isn’t going to change his mind.

 

[Hivemind]

You have said all of those things directly and indirectly across the course of the season.

Here is something i have been saying all season. it’s not Lavi’s job to gift developmental time. It is his job to ice the best set of players who gives the Caps the best chance to win. When they were sucking, he stuck with the vets and guess what… it paid off.

To be clear, I would like to see the young guys play as well. But yeah, lavi isn’t going to sit veteran players like MoJo, Kuzy, Hathaway, Mantha or other highly paid veterans. Our arguing over it isn’t going to change his mind.

I have said I wanted Lavi fired, but that's about as close as you'll get. That's not because I hate Lavi (I actually like him a lot as an X&Os coach - his systems align pretty closely with how I think the modern game should be played), but simply because I don't think he's the right fit for the organization's trajectory right now. Lavi is a coach known for providing a short-term bump to a team's performance early in his tenure with an organization. We're now outside that initial two-year period, and we never got the real benefit of that bump. He's typically a coach with a short shelf-life, and steadily declining results. I don't think the upside is worth sticking it out with him as a coach to see if he can reverse his historical results, especially when it comes at the expense of developing all their young forwards.

This isn't about gifting spots. This is about holding veterans and younger forwards to the same standards. Right now Laviolette will bench young forwards for mistakes that he routinely lets veteran forwards get away with. There's a double standard, and the vets get much longer leashes than the young guys. It's nice that they organization had a great December, but we've seen this story play out routinely every year since they've won the Cup. Is there anything in the play of Carlson, Kuznetsov, Eller, Mantha, Johansson, etc. to suggest that they will be any more effective come the post-season than they have been in the past few years? Is there anything to suggest that Backstrom or Oshie will be any more healthy in the post-season than in the past few years?

There's a lot of chaff and depth filler on this roster that gets opportunities even when they're slumping or making mistakes. Put a coach in place that will actually allow the younger players to have real opportunities when those slumps and mistakes happen. Letting kids play doesn't mean they're not attempting to compete now or in the near future. Not burying young skaters behind the likes of Aube-Kubel, Matt Irwin, or Lars Eller doesn't mean that they're rebuilding. Just look at the 2018 Caps, they had plenty of youth through-out the line-up.

 

[Random schmoe]

Given that Lucas Johansen is the only LD signed beyond this season - with Fehérváry and Alexeyev RFAs - I do wonder if it would make sense for the Caps to pursue a trade for Chychrun this season. I don't think right now we can objectively state that AA and Johansen should be fixtures on the D corps next season.

Chychrun is signed for $4.6M for two seasons beyond this one. Orlov is likely to earn much more on his next deal. Offseason would be better due to their cap situation - either Mantha or Eller would likely have to go out to fit him in, assuming no new high AAV LTIR placements through the rest of the regular season - but I'll bet Arizona gets committed to move him by the trade deadline.

His injury history does give me pause though, as does the fact that he won't get power play time in DC, somewhat muting his value to the Caps.

With that said, I wouldn't want to pay the type of price in prospects and picks that some Arizona HF posters ask for. (Not that those asked-for values aren't unsupported elsewhere - Jeff Marek said in October “It's essentially the equivalent of two first-round draft picks, plus. So, that would be a combination of prospects, picks and players as well.”)

Since it seems like the Caps don't care about giving McMichael time in the NHL to improve whatever deficiencies they see in his game, I'd be willing to trade him before his value sinks further, and a lesser piece, like Brent Johnson and/or a goalie prospect (they're voodoo) and/or a mid-round pick.

But that's just me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Given that Lucas Johansen is the only LD signed beyond this season - with Fehérváry and Alexeyev RFAs - I do wonder if it would make sense for the Caps to pursue a trade for Chychrun this season. I don't think right now we can objectively state that AA and Johansen should be fixtures on the D corps next season.

Chychrun is signed for $4.6M for two seasons beyond this one. Orlov is likely to earn much more on his next deal. Offseason would be better due to their cap situation - either Mantha or Eller would likely have to go out to fit him in, assuming no new high AAV LTIR placements through the rest of the regular season - but I'll bet Arizona gets committed to move him by the trade deadline.

His injury history does give me pause though, as does the fact that he won't get power play time in DC, somewhat muting his value to the Caps.

With that said, I wouldn't want to pay the type of price in prospects and picks that some Arizona HF posters ask for. (Not that those asked-for values aren't unsupported elsewhere - Jeff Marek said in October “It's essentially the equivalent of two first-round draft picks, plus. So, that would be a combination of prospects, picks and players as well.”)

Since it seems like the Caps don't care about giving McMichael time in the NHL to improve whatever deficiencies they see in his game, I'd be willing to trade him before his value sinks further, and a lesser piece, like Brent Johnson and/or a goalie prospect (they're voodoo) and/or a mid-round pick.

But that's just me.

1st + CMM is the starting point IMO. (or Jimi)

Can‘t get those cheap years from Chychrun without paying heavily.

I think they will certainly re-up Orlov. I’d bet the term is the holdup on him. Fever of course will be back.

AA looks NHL-ready to me. I’d let Lujo go if anyone, even though he looks kinda ready also.

 

[Random schmoe]

1st + CMM is the starting point IMO. (or Jimi)

Can‘t get those cheap years from Chychrun without paying heavily.

I think they will certainly re-up Orlov. I’d bet the term is the holdup on him. Fever of course will be back.

AA looks NHL-ready to me. I’d let Lujo go if anyone, even though he looks kinda ready also.

Frankly I agree with the likely 'realistic' starting point to get him. I just don't think I'd personally be willing to go beyond CMM and the 1st.

I probably should have said that *I* couldn't "objectively state that AA and Johansen should be fixtures on the D corps next season." Didn't mean to speak for others.

Editing to add: I'm banking a little on the hope that the Arizona front office thinks of McMichael as better than the average 1st round value.

 

[895]

I'd trade AA + CMM for Chyrchrun, no questions asked.

 

[crazy8888]

I'd trade AA + CMM for Chyrchrun, no questions asked.

Talk about going all in, I like it!

But my more rational side is hesitant. I would give up on AA solely based on his injury history. Not sure im ready to give up on CMM though. Trading him now could turn out to be a big mistake down the line.

Besides, most big trades in recent years ended up giving smaller than anticipated returns. I would be more liberal with draft picks instead of selling away best prospects.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'd trade AA + CMM for Chyrchrun, no questions asked.

I think AZ would say “no thanks”, no questions asked.

But that’s just me

 

[pman25]

Roster crunch squeezes out young NHL-ready prospect. Common occurrence here.

I will say Snively isn’t exactly young. A fine player to have but he’s a depth forward. Exactly the kinda guy you want as a healthy scratch. Provides some short term juice when called upon. Not really someone you plan a spot for. He’s just there when you need him which is fine

I'd trade AA + CMM for Chyrchrun, no questions asked.

AA has no significant value. Doesn’t add much value in a trade for Chychrun

 

[Brian23]

Gonna be honest, no idea what Irwin's done to deserve being given a sweater every night. Especially when AA has seemed, at the very least, well enough to fill that 6th/7th D roll Irwin is supposed to be filling.

 

[YippieKaey]

1st + CMM is the starting point IMO. (or Jimi)

Can‘t get those cheap years from Chychrun without paying heavily.

I think they will certainly re-up Orlov. I’d bet the term is the holdup on him. Fever of course will be back.

AA looks NHL-ready to me. I’d let Lujo go if anyone, even though he looks kinda ready also.

Agreed, LuJo is 25 though so if he's not getting good now he might never. and other teams know this aswell. So we might have to part with AA, which i would think is worth it.

 

[DWGie26]

I don’t see a need to give up a bunch of assets for Chychrun right now. I see our dee next year more like this:

Gus (resigned) - Carlson
Orlov (resigned) - TVR (resigned)
Fever-new cheap 3RD reclamation project

Others fighting for 5-8 spots
Johansen - Iorio
Alexyev - Chesley
Nardella - Brent Johnson (AHL)

I just don’t think we need another left dee. Right Dee looks promising but not sure next year will be an NHL year for Iorio or Chesley and they’ll both be waiver exempt so I think you need to sign a 2RD if going big or a cheap 3RD. Both those contracts should be short term. maybe we can get Jensen back on a value deal for 2 years but i suspect he can get a 4-5 year retirement deal for more money and I don’t want to do that.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don’t see a need to give up a bunch of assets for Chychrun right now. I see our dee next year more like this:

Gus (resigned) - Carlson
Orlov (resigned) - TVR (resigned)
Fever-new cheap 3RD reclamation project

Others fighting for 5-8 spots
Johansen - Iorio
Alexyev - Chesley
Nardella - Brent Johnson (AHL)

I just don’t think we need another left dee. Right Dee looks promising but not sure next year will be an NHL year for Iorio or Chesley and they’ll both be waiver exempt so I think you need to sign a 2RD if going big or a cheap 3RD. Both those contracts should be short term. maybe we can get Jensen back on a value deal for 2 years but i suspect he can get a 4-5 year retirement deal for more money and I don’t want to do that.

I would not be so quick to write off Jensen.

-His best friend is Dowd (signed for 2yrs beyond this one), their wives are besties, and they love the area and the team.
-Caps gave him his first “real” contract, before he had proven himself. Loyalty earned.
-his game blossomed here, due to the above.

If he wants 5+m a year, he’s gone. If he’s 4m ish (or under), I could see the team keeping him.

Easiest was to remain a tough team (and tough out in the loffs) is having good D & good G. The G is wrapped up for 3 yrs. The D only has Carlson signed for next year. Of the top 6.

I see Carlson, Orlov, Jensen, and Fever being the D foundation. Rest is up for grabs.

Let’s see what shakes out.

 

[twabby]

I think they should try their best to re-sign Jensen, but I do wonder if he's looking for his big payday. CapFriendly has him at ~$11 million in career earnings. It's not nothing, but it's hardly enough for anyone to expect him to take a hometown discount. Teams like Buffalo and Ottawa would do well to overpay Jensen a bit to stabilize their defense and Washington might be competing against those numbers if Jensen decides it's time to get his retirement contract.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think AZ would say “no thanks”, no questions asked.

But that’s just me

Yup….add the 1st to get them really interested.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would not be so quick to write off Jensen.

-His best friend is Dowd (signed for 2yrs beyond this one), their wives are besties, and they love the area and the team.
-Caps gave him his first “real” contract, before he had proven himself. Loyalty earned.
-his game blossomed here, due to the above.

If he wants 5+m a year, he’s gone. If he’s 4m ish (or under), I could see the team keeping him.

Easiest was to remain a tough team (and tough out in the loffs) is having good D & good G. The G is wrapped up for 3 yrs. The D only has Carlson signed for next year. Of the top 6.

I see Carlson, Orlov, Jensen, and Fever being the D foundation. Rest is up for grabs.

Let’s see what shakes out.

I think like Orlov, it’s going to come down to term over AAV. They will want longer as older guys, Caps will of course want shorter term. If I’m Jensen, I’d be looking for 5 years. He’s 32 before next season starts.

This is his one chance to get his career payday. His wife’s best friend and all that stuff won’t matter if someone drops a big offer to him in UFA. They need to offer him term before UFA time and not be glaringly low on AAV.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Good news for Fever but I wish they’d play Alexeyev over Irwin. Irwin has been real bad lately. All six of these guys can skate, make a pass, jump into the rush, and play defense.

Orlov-Jensen
Fever-TvR
Gus-Alexeyev

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think they should try their best to re-sign Jensen, but I do wonder if he's looking for his big payday. CapFriendly has him at ~$11 million in career earnings. It's not nothing, but it's hardly enough for anyone to expect him to take a hometown discount. Teams like Buffalo and Ottawa would do well to overpay Jensen a bit to stabilize their defense and Washington might be competing against those numbers if Jensen decides it's time to get his retirement contract.

I mean….I‘m not worried about Buffalo or Ottawa unless they come offering him 4x$5 (or more)….

what‘s your salary prediction site have him at? Orlov?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I will say Snively isn’t exactly young. A fine player to have but he’s a depth forward. Exactly the kinda guy you want as a healthy scratch. Provides some short term juice when called upon. Not really someone you plan a spot for. He’s just there when you need him which is fine


AA has no significant value. Doesn’t add much value in a trade for Chychrun

Based on what? He’s recently shown he’s ready to play at this level and was a high pick.

……and on Snively…..just pointing out the comparison to others previously squeezed out by a deep roster or acquisition….who, you know get complained about a decent amount around here.

 

[Hivemind]

Given the organization's stated preference to continuing "competing" during Ovechkin's 894 race, letting some of their more reliable D pieces walk for nothing would be incredibly counter-productive.

Priority list for re-signing:
1. Strome (RFA)
2. Orlov
3. Jensen
4A. TvR
4B. Gustafsson
5. Sheary

Strome is obvious for his ability to continue feeding Ovie and keep the 894 chase going.

Orlov and Jensen are the bedrock of this defense, and letting either of them walk for nothing would be an egregious mistake. If they realize in-season that there's not going to be an agreeable contract situation, they should look at what they can get on the trade market before the deadline. Both of these pieces are arguably even more important than Strome from a team competitiveness standpoint, but Strome's direct aid for the 894 chase elevates him further.

They should hang onto at least one of TvR or Gustafsson, but finding the right price on these guys is important. TvR has been a godsend as a 2nd/3rd pair D for the Capitals, and I would hate to lose him. But I'm having a hard time imagining his new contract being as cheap as the two <$1M contract he's signed with the Caps previously. If he's willing to go chase a $3-4M payday elsewhere, they're going to have look at how their overall roster budget is shaping up. Gustafsson has been great during their December hot streak, but he's had great seasons elsewhere before and then quickly worn out his welcome. If he's willing to sign another 1 or 2 year deal, I'd say keep him around. If he wants something longer term, I'd be wary.

Sheary is just a nice guy to have fill in anywhere in the line-up. Doesn't look terrible as a complimentary piece in the top six, but can also slot into a 3rd or 4th line without looking out of place their either. Doesn't need special teams time to be productive, either. Worth keeping around.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think like Orlov, it’s going to come down to term over AAV. They will want longer as older guys, Caps will of course want shorter term. If I’m Jensen, I’d be looking for 5 years. He’s 32 before next season starts.

This is his one chance to get his career payday. His wife’s best friend and all that stuff won’t matter if someone drops a big offer to him in UFA. They need to offer him term before UFA time and not be glaringly low on AAV.

Obv if he gets to the FA period, he’s gone.

I think if they offered 5/19m or something, he may take it.