Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Peeri]

San Jose is trying move Karlsson because they know this is the year they might actually get decent return for him. He is now playing way over his actual level in terms of point production and when he comes down to earth, and it will, his value will go down again. And I hope Capitals stay as far away from him as possible. We have our own Carlson, who plays hockey in pretty much same way.

 

[Langway]

We already have too much $$ tied up in old people. I thought the majority of this board was hoping for a Caps youth movement? This team has a lot of problems...I don't think adding a 9mil aging offensive-minded Dman is the answer.

It's just that a youth movement until 2026 at the earliest seems like it will only be an absolute last resort and likely be considered a failure on their part. I'd bank on them doing lots to avoid it, even if it becomes abundantly clear otherwise that the team no longer has what it takes. They have neither the inclination nor I think the patience for that sort of on-the-fly restructuring. And IMO they also believe they're obligated to Ovechkin to have their shit together so that he doesn't have to sit through that.

I could get behind a theoretical sell-off at the deadline if injuries take their toll but, again, hard to believe they'd embrace it without exhausting all other fixes and trying to keep it on track. Whatever changes they make any time soon are more likely cosmetic and what's sexier than star appeal? You can't beat it. And, I mean, maybe it works. It probably doesn't but it could also help the pursuit of 895. Anything that helps them become a higher-event, wide-open team is probably viewed more favorably than the opposite, even coming at the expense of team success. I'm intrigued by the idea given his start and I'd wager they are too. I'm not sure it's workable in-season but they do have the cap commitment flexibility to consider trades along those lines.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

...what...? I don't know how you can say "do something" without actually even having something you want them to do...


Horvat would be fine as a center pickup, but he's not suddenly making this team into a contender. He's someone I'd much rather target in the offseason and hope he hits free agency. Karlsson might be enough to get them into the playoffs if his form holds, but I want nothing to do with paying a 32 year old 11.5 million for the next 5 years and even less what it'd take to acquire him.

This

 

[traparatus]

IMO, the oldest team in league, one that has become plagued by chronic injury problems should not trade for a 32 year old injury prone defenseman who is signed to one of the worst contracts in the NHL. I know Karlsson is on a really nice stretch of games but this move has REGRET written all over it.

All in all, I'd rather have one less Carlson than an extra one.

 

[Kuz]

IMO, the oldest team in league, one that has become plagued by chronic injury problems should not trade for a 32 year old injury prone defenseman who is signed to one of the worst contracts in the NHL. I know Karlsson is on a really nice stretch of games but this move has REGRET written all over it.

All in all, I'd rather have one less Carlson than an extra one.

He is better than Carlson so in a trade for Karlsson with Carlson I would be okey with it. Its only one more year and having Karlsson would improve the PP and also help Ovi. He is 3,5 million better than what Carlson have been the last few years.

San Jose would Get a cheaper replacement who they can Get out of the contract one year earlier.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

If the Tom Wilson they get back is the big-hitting terror that causes the entire opposing team to play hesitant hockey while looking over their shoulders, then that could drastically change the landscape and improve the fortunes and effectiveness of EVERY player on the Caps roster.

if the Tom Wilson they get back is a guy who scores goals at maybe a 20 goal pace and chips in a few assists, you can probably trade that version for a king's ransom based on reputation alone.

The last time we saw Tom Wilson, it was a considerably neutered version of the player most of us loved, i.e. v.2 in your descriptions above.

 

[traparatus]

He is better than Carlson so in a trade for Karlsson with Carlson I would be okey with it. Its only one more year and having Karlsson would improve the PP and also help Ovi. He is 3,5 million better than what Carlson have been the last few years.

San Jose would Get a cheaper replacement who they can Get out of the contract one year earlier.

Would you have said at this point a year ago that Karlsson is $3.5m better?

Let's look at San Jose and learn from their mistakes. A rebuild can come calling for you whether you like it or not. Trying to rebuild while carrying massive contracts is incredibly difficult. That's how San Jose ended up trading Burns for a bag of pucks. They would take another bag of pucks for Karlsson this very instant if anyone offered.

This franchise should be looking at exchanging Carlson for cheaper, younger and more versatile assets before he completes his transformation into a pumpkin, not replacing him with an even worse contract.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

San Jose is trying move Karlsson because they know this is the year they might actually get decent return for him. He is now playing way over his actual level in terms of point production and when he comes down to earth, and it will, his value will go down again. And I hope Capitals stay as far away from him as possible. We have our own Carlson, who plays hockey in pretty much same way.

100%, EK65 is a trap. He has had 1 month of amazing player after 5 years of mediocrity. Just a few months ago, he would've won a poll for the worst contract in the league.

 

[Kuz]

Would you have said at this point a year ago that Karlsson is $3.5m better?

Let's look at San Jose and learn from their mistakes. A rebuild can come calling for you whether you like it or not. Trying to rebuild while carrying massive contracts is incredibly difficult. That's how San Jose ended up trading Burns for a bag of pucks. They would take another bag of pucks for Karlsson this very instant if anyone offered.

This franchise should be looking at exchanging Carlson for cheaper, younger and more versatile assets before he completes his transformation into a pumpkin, not replacing him with an even worse contract.

Carlson is already a negative asset and worth a bag of pucks. 32 year old who have lost his PP ability and defence gets Worse every game.

 

[g00n]

IMO, the oldest team in league, one that has become plagued by chronic injury problems should not trade for a 32 year old injury prone defenseman who is signed to one of the worst contracts in the NHL. I know Karlsson is on a really nice stretch of games but this move has REGRET written all over it.

All in all, I'd rather have one less Carlson than an extra one.

We keep talking about the Caps being the oldest team in the league. What does that mean across the league? Is age the only factor?

I plotted the average age of teams as shown in the link below, as of 10/10/2022 (roughly opening night), using the current points% from NHL.com's stats, pulled before tonight's games.

Average Ages For All 32 Opening Night Rosters For 2022-23 Season

With opening night rosters now set for all 32 teams, we can begin to take our annual look at the makeup of each of the teams at the start of the 2022-23 season, including the average age for each o…

novacapsfans.com

Here's the plot:

I see almost no trend at all, other than a very slight increase in points% as teams get OLDER. IMO that's negligible.

So is age really that big a thing, or are people using it as an excuse for other problems?

 

[traparatus]

Carlson is already a negative asset and worth a bag of pucks. 32 year old who have lost his PP ability and defence gets Worse every game.

That's why you wait until he goes on his own Karlsson-like stretch and you then dump his ass. Much like Karlsson, Carlson WILL have stretches of terrific play in his future. I have no doubt about it.

This whole Carlson-Karlson thing is giving me a headache.

 

[Peeri]

So is age really that big a thing, or are people using it as an excuse for other problems?

I think age matters much more when your team top 6 is past their primes and much older than your average team leader. I don't think anyone would have a problem if we had few older 4th line grinders raising the average age up.

 

[twabby]

If they were going to acquire Karlsson this past offseason would have been the best time to do it as he was probably a negative asset given his contract. Now I think he's made himself into a valuable asset especially if retention is involved so I’m not sure it makes any sense.

In a vacuum Carlson to Karlsson is probably a big upgrade given the former has fallen apart in recent postseasons and the latter has typically thrived in the playoffs. But I don’t really think it’s worth paying a decent amount for Karlsson when he’s one injury away from reverting back to his gimpy form and he’s not a good enough all-around player to improve the team enough to even get them into the playoffs in all likelihood.

I’d much prefer they approach this season as lost and look to do everything the can to prepare themselves for 2-3 years from now. I don’t think Karlsson fits this timeline. He’s much more of a win-now type acquisition.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Tank hard for Bedard.

 

[g00n]

I think age matters much more when your team top 6 is past their primes and much older than your average team leader. I don't think anyone would have a problem if we had few older 4th line grinders raising the average age up.

Is there data on this? Because all I see are generic "too old" complaints without any qualifiers, and I'm not sure they translate around the league.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I guess what I hope happens is that we don’t go for any half measures and if we are going to suck, let’s be the best at it. The worst thing that can happen is they miss the playoffs by a few points. No playoffs and a blah draft position.

 

[Langway]

I’d much prefer they approach this season as lost and look to do everything the can to prepare themselves for 2-3 years from now. I don’t think Karlsson fits this timeline. He’s much more of a win-now type acquisition.

I doubt we'll see such an arc but I'm also not sure if we can rely on their structural integrity being any better 2-3 years down the line. Such an arc is too complicated and not without risk or assurance of it paying off in time. This may be the last season where it would be feasible to load up on picks that maybe could be fast-tracked just enough to be in the league while 8 is still around. But I doubt that's overly appealing in the here and now compared to more aggressively trying to make the playoffs. They generally do not do delayed gratification. More likely it just...stays flat. Stays just about where it has been post-Cup. It's just about trying to compete every year minus much in the way of prime younger, developing assets.

We'll see how it goes. If there's a further in-season wobble that puts the playoffs in even greater danger that's when I'd expect a trade or perhaps a coaching change to help stabilize things. Hard to believe they'd pull the pin on the season unless injuries make that decision for them. Otherwise IMO they're just sort of resigned to being a bubble team essentially for the rest of the Ovechkin Era. And then they'll suck forrealforreal.

One thing that does stick out currently is that only Kuemper is signed beyond Ovechkin's deal. Orlov & Jensen should both get more than three years if re-upped (same with Wilson) but it does highlight the structural flexibility they may want to maintain. You wonder just how selective they should be then next summer when they may have a lot of cap space. Would they resist the temptation, at least as it concerns term, in order to maintain flexibility post-Ovechkin? Depends on the player you'd think but it could also give them another pivot point.

For the Caps I don't think it's age so much as poor sense and athleticism that hinders them. Boston has a fair share of older players but they think the game at such a high level that it's a benefit. Whereas mentally the Caps haven't earned nearly the same advantage.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Tank hard for Bedard.

Be a Pejorative Slur for Bedard!

 

[Raikkonen]

there is no magic pill that will help to compete with this core

they can only make their drafting position worse I'm afraid

have to sell

then they can maybe even start to play better without expectations and with less old legs

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///We'll see how it goes. If there's a further in-season wobble that puts the playoffs in even greater danger that's when I'd expect a trade or perhaps a coaching change to help stabilize things. Hard to believe they'd pull the pin on the season unless injuries make that decision for them. Otherwise IMO they're just sort of resigned to being a bubble team essentially for the rest of the Ovechkin Era. And then they'll suck forrealforreal.

One thing that does stick out currently is that only Kuemper is signed beyond Ovechkin's deal. Orlov & Jensen should both get more than three years if re-upped (same with Wilson) but it does highlight the structural flexibility they may want to maintain. You wonder just how selective they should be then next summer when they may have a lot of cap space. Would they resist the temptation, at least as it concerns term, in order to maintain flexibility post-Ovechkin? Depends on the player you'd think but it could also give them another pivot point.

For the Caps I don't think it's age so much as poor sense and athleticism that hinders them. Boston has a fair share of older players but they think the game at such a high level that it's a benefit. Whereas mentally the Caps haven't earned nearly the same advantage.

I am not expecting any kind of a sell-off, since mediocrity seems to be the governing business philosophy for Ted's sports franchises. So I would subscribe to the bubble team prediction.

But I take issue with how much they will suck post-Ovie. If #8's performance continues to decline, then whoever is GM (prolly BMac, if Ted stays true to form) will have mucho dinero available to replace Ovie's contributions - and JC's, absent his being moved - in summer 2026. That's $17.5m. How much would it cost to bring in a middling forward and a 3/4 dman, maybe $8m? (That's assuming the team doesn't have anyone in the pipeline who'll be ready for those roles at a lower cost in 3.5 seasons.) So you'll be looking at nearly $10m in add'l salary that could be used for a star. I do not see Ovie as a liability now, but I expect that he will be replaceable at a much lower cost as he nears the end of his current contract.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Lavis is cooked, no way he survives any longer than this season(if he even makes it all the way through). BMacs only chance at survival is selling some long tenured vets at the deadline once we're out of it and to try and get younger for next season and keep Ted's optimism up. If he says he's got one more plan with some of the remaining core and younger/faster guys sprinkled in to play exciting hockey with a new enthusiastic coach (probably Carbury) I think ted bites and runs it back again and Bmac buys himself a couple more years at least while rookie coach adjust to NHL and young players mature.

 

[Langway]

I am not expecting any kind of a sell-off, since mediocrity seems to be the governing business philosophy for Ted's sports franchises. So I would subscribe to the bubble team prediction.

But I take issue with how much they will suck post-Ovie. If #8's performance continues to decline, then whoever is GM (prolly BMac, if Ted stays true to form) will have mucho dinero available to replace Ovie's contributions - and JC's, absent his being moved - in summer 2026. That's $17.5m. How much would it cost to bring in a middling forward and a 3/4 dman, maybe $8m? (That's assuming the team doesn't have anyone in the pipeline who'll be ready for those roles at a lower cost in 3.5 seasons.) So you'll be looking at nearly $10m in add'l salary that could be used for a star. I do not see Ovie as a liability now, but I expect that he will be replaceable at a much lower cost as he nears the end of his current contract.

A key to all that cap flexibility, as with the upcoming summer potentially, is remaining disciplined and not blowing it on whatever happens to be more conveniently available at the time if it doesn't altogether meet their needs. I'm not sure they'd execute with the level of discipline needed so it's hard to bank on cap flexibility as the solution. It could be but there are limitations within that to where internal solutions still need to be considered the prime method toward improvement. Until that becomes a stronger primary source for them again it's hard to believe they're on the right path. They can try to fast-track it, sure, but it likely comes with some costly compromises in the process.

A lot can happen in 3+ years to be sure. Maybe Ovechkin doesn't even hang them up? Who knows. If they net a top 10 pick next summer and restructure more intelligently and forward-thinking maybe they'll course correct well enough to more smoothly transition. But I certainly have my doubts. It seems equally likely that it's just sort of scorched earth by then. Part may depend on the quality of their (presumed) next coach but there's a lot more to organizational stability. Continuing down their current path for another few years seems like a dead-end and it's not clear they'll course correct until it's too late. They're bound to have some youth that manages to integrate into the team but fundamentally I don't expect throwing money at the problem in a few years to be that grand of a solution. You'd rather have it than not but they could also equally saddle themselves via loading up in the meantime in an attempt at One Last Push.

 

[pman25]

the last team to defeat the New Jersey Devils? That's right, you guessed it. The Washington Capitals.

 

[Corby78]

105 pt pace is 1.28 pts per game…..14 in 10 is 1.4. 1.4 the rest of the season gets them to 100…

I haven’t seen anything that tells me this team would go 7-3 in a 10 game stretch, much less the rest of the season

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I haven’t seen anything that tells me this team would go 7-3 in a 10 game stretch, much less the rest of the season

This.