Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[CapitalsCupReality]

What's your point?

it should be obvious.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

The worse thing that could happen is they got hot but still don’t make the playoffs. No playoffs and a crappy draft pick is the worst case scenario.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think this team is done with disciplinarians, at least for now. We need a modern hockey mind behind the bench. If we're going to ride or die with so many of our vets, it's time for them to hold each other accountable so we can employ a coaching staff that gets us playing a more modern, dynamic, and less predictable game.

Time to find out what we have in MacLellan, too. So much about the "our coach hates young players but our GM doesn't" argument simply doesn't track. If he's part of that equation, it needs to stop. So many of the personnel gaffes we've made have appeared to be more coaching related, but Mac always either acquires, re-signs, or keeps the vet that coach needs to make the shortsighted decision in the first place.

These are among the very top things we need to address in the offseason; maybe just as important is the infusion of new talent. The thought of Mac giving Laviolette an extension -- suggesting neither is even on the hotseat -- gives me dry heaves right now.

Would love to know who, say the top 10 options are out there….even if just in North America. Not asking you, just don’t know who we would even have to choose from besides the unemployed retreads we all know, and a few NHL assistants.

 

[Jags]

Would love to know who, say the top 10 options are out there….even if just in North America. Not asking you, just don’t know who we would even have to choose from besides the unemployed retreads we all know, and a few NHL assistants.

I hear you, and I'd like a scouting report on coaches, too. We can't keep being the team that employs the retreads (or the respected guys that are becoming retreads as we speak) while other teams benefit from making bolder moves, or riding out and developing a coach that shows real promise but needs time.

If we're all about 895 and that's it, sure, get Gabby if Ovi likes him, or lean toward a touted offensive coaching prospect and see what you get. Great coaches fall out of favor sometimes, so maybe there'll be one we can grab up. But our game needs to move into the 21st century.

 

[Capsman]

I hear you, and I'd like a scouting report on coaches, too. We can't keep being the team that employs the retreads (or the respected guys that are becoming retreads as we speak) while other teams benefit from making bolder moves, or riding out and developing a coach that shows real promise but needs time.

If we're all about 895 and that's it, sure, get Gabby if Ovi likes him, or lean toward a touted offensive coaching prospect and see what you get. Great coaches fall out of favor sometimes, so maybe there'll be one we can grab up. But our game needs to move into the 21st century.

This team has had several seasons of mediocre passing and unimaginative play under several coaches. Late Boudreau, Hunter, Oates, parts of Trotz’ tenure, and Rierden. Are they all from past centuries? Carolina is a proficient forechecking team, they just do it better than we do. Their game works well in modern times. Lavi activating d-men is definitely a more modern concept.

I don’t see it as much about Lavi’s style not being modern as does what he’s coaching make the best use of his personnel.

 

[4thTierSport]

Won’t pay the man that won you a Cup, but let this one coast on one from 14 years ago…

 

[PlushMinus]

While I'm not holding my breath, if this team starts getting better and healthier, it's nowhere near a lost cause

I generally look at seasons in 10-game increments (8x10 + gms 81/82)
if we're getting at least 12 pts per 10 (6-4-0 avg) like a normal year
that's 72 points in last 60 games + 2 or 3 pts for gms 81/82,
that puts at 91/92

This being the season of parity, I think the magic # could be as low as 94 pts. (NYR --current WC2-- is pacing for 95 pts.)

cpl of decent streaks where we can get 14-15 pts in 10 gms and this could be an interesting season

Parity is a double edged sword though. It makes it equally difficult to claw your way back into a playoff spot when you fall a few points behind. Because all those other teams that are in a playoff spot are continuing to win at the same percentage that got them there in the first place.

A good indicator is to sort standings by conference and look at "last 10 games", so you can see how many points out of a possible 20 each team has gotten. You will often see that unless a team goes on an extended winning or losing streak, almost the entire league will track the same and barely change position (especially with regards to playoffs after Thanksgiving). So it's not about keeping up, it's about gaining ground once you've fallen back.

Personally, I'm not even sure I want to see this team spend the entire season chasing a WC2 spot, because you know when the playoffs roll around the old guys will have nothing left in the tank, be banged up (even more), and likely can't get past the 1st round. And especially if playing catch up for the next 60 games means no changes to coaching, no changes to the lineup, and that insufferably ineffective power play with it's inability to enter the zone and that stupid slingshot pass. Let's change things up, rock the boat, and see a different hockey team on the ice!!

 

[HTFN]

What do you think Lavi is going to say?

"I talked to Connor and he was very pissed off about this. He hates that he made a quarter million dollars instead of 25K and is mad at me. I'm going to text him a smiling emoji later and hopefully he'll text me back."

Jesus.

You'd have to be a stone cold f***ing idiot to value those earnings while they kill your development and potential to make so much more than that.

Nobody's living the rest of their life on 250k, a real NHL career is something you can make last. This really isn't complicated. If McMichael is stupid enough to value this very short term money over betting on himself we might as well just get rid of the kid now and bring in somebody with a brain.

 

[zappa4ever]

Parity is a double edged sword though. It makes it equally difficult to claw your way back into a playoff spot when you fall a few points behind. Because all those other teams that are in a playoff spot are continuing to win at the same percentage that got them there in the first place.

A good indicator is to sort standings by conference and look at "last 10 games", so you can see how many points out of a possible 20 each team has gotten. You will often see that unless a team goes on an extended winning or losing streak, almost the entire league will track the same and barely change position (especially with regards to playoffs after Thanksgiving). So it's not about keeping up, it's about gaining ground once you've fallen back.

Personally, I'm not even sure I want to see this team spend the entire season chasing a WC2 spot, because you know when the playoffs roll around the old guys will have nothing left in the tank, be banged up (even more), and likely can't get past the 1st round. And especially if playing catch up for the next 60 games means no changes to coaching, no changes to the lineup, and that insufferably ineffective power play with it's inability to enter the zone and that stupid slingshot pass. Let's change things up, rock the boat, and see a different hockey team on the ice!!

and often times decent teams that haven't gotten a break, and haven't been healthy all of a sudden get a break, get a cpl players back, and go on a real tear; winning can be contagious

Who's to say what will happen the next 20 games?

I, for one, am not afraid to be hopeful and positive (which puts me clearly in the minority here)

 

[Jags]

I don’t see it as much about Lavi’s style not being modern as does what he’s coaching make the best use of his personnel.

There are some systems things that are a bit antiquated, but he has an older mindset when it comes to how we play when we're down, how we play when we're up, what a young player needs to do to earn a spot, what a veteran player has to do to lose a spot, when to use the carrot versus the stick, and so on. On the whole it's more philosophical than not, but the end result speaks for itself.

So you can couch it in player utilization, but it goes way deeper than that. And then there's the ego thing. It takes a lot of balls to constantly shift the lineup punitively when a lot of the things that aren't working are clearly coaching/system issues. Our power play is the most glaring example, but there's plenty to go around. The finger never seems to be pointed his way. When he says "we" in a presser, he's ALWAYS talking about players.

I see where you're coming from and agree that it's not entirely a "modern" problem, but that old school thinking and posturing is on tap 24/7 and doesn't help us a lick.

 

[PlushMinus]

and often times decent teams that haven't gotten a break, and haven't been healthy all of a sudden get a break, get a cpl players back, and go on a real tear; winning can be contagious

Who's to say what will happen the next 20 games?

I, for one, am not afraid to be hopeful and positive (which puts me clearly in the minority here)

Hey, more power to you for being hopeful and positive. Not going to shit on somebody for that!!

I'd like to see the Caps change up their game. They've been difficult to watch, not only just this season, but last couple of years as well. Not all the time, of course. But I'd like some more speed and definitely Kuzy playing closer to his ability, and Mantha actually earning his paycheck. If Milano and Protas start producing as well the team would already be way better in terms of entertainment.

 

[trick9]

77.5 % of the teams in the Playoff spots by Thanksgiving make the Playoffs. That's a pretty big percentage. Is this team good enough to beat the odds? Ehhh.... i've seen nothing to suggest it.

If i had to bet whether they finish closer to top-5 pick or Playoff spot i'd say that the top-5 pick is more likely. And that wouldn't be the worst thing.

 

[YippieKaey]

For those thinking that we can just get hot and make up for lost points, keep in mind that we have the most games played but the second fewest points in the division. So we would have to get hot and the three teams just above us would have to get cold at the same time.

I don't want to be the doom & gloom guy but it's pretty obvious that this team is not making the playoffs. It's obvious when watching games, watching the roster, watching the stats and watching the standings.

There's just no indicators that we'll get better. Wilson coming back is great but he'll be rusty. Orlov coming back is good but we weren't that good with him either.

The best thing for the team is to accept reality and become massive sellers and try and build a fairly competitive future by replenishing a pretty meagre prospect pool anyway they can. Doing that and getting Ovi to 895 shoul be the priority going forward.

 

[HTFN]

105 pt pace is 1.28 pts per game…..14 in 10 is 1.4. 1.4 the rest of the season gets them to 100…

oh dope so they just have to lose in OT or win outright from now to the end of the season.

easy peasy.

 

[g00n]

You'd have to be a stone cold f***ing idiot to value those earnings while they kill your development and potential to make so much more than that.

Nobody's living the rest of their life on 250k, a real NHL career is something you can make last. This really isn't complicated. If McMichael is stupid enough to value this very short term money over betting on himself we might as well just get rid of the kid now and bring in somebody with a brain.

Come on, man.

Two months of playing in the NHL vs the AHL and banking more money than most 21 year olds see in 5-10 years is not "killing your development" it's securing your future by protecting your financial stability. He won't have to do stupid shit to make ends meet and can focus just on hockey.

It seems like people have become unreasonable about this player and are getting locked into set narratives about how things have to go, based on their own limited fan perspectives. Think about it from his point of view.

If you were offered 250k to take off 2 months from regular college/school/training to participate in a different kind of classroom setting that was too hard for you, would you have done it?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

For those thinking that we can just get hot and make up for lost points, keep in mind that we have the most games played but the second fewest points in the division. So we would have to get hot and the three teams just above us would have to get cold at the same time.

I don't want to be the doom & gloom guy but it's pretty obvious that this team is not making the playoffs. It's obvious when watching games, watching the roster, watching the stats and watching the standings.

There's just no indicators that we'll get better. Wilson coming back is great but he'll be rusty. Orlov coming back is good but we weren't that good with him either.

The best thing for the team is to accept reality and become massive sellers and try and build a fairly competitive future by replenishing a pretty meagre prospect pool anyway they can. Doing that and getting Ovi to 895 shoul be the priority going forward.

Not that I disagree with your assertion but I do think it’s important to note that out of the 17 games they’ve played, only two have been against Metro division opponents so they still have almost their entire division slate to go. They have plenty of chances remaining for four point swing games.

 

[g00n]

Not that I disagree with your assertion but I do think it’s important to note that out of the 17 games they’ve played, only two have been against Metro division opponents so they still have almost their entire division slate to go. They have plenty of chances remaining for four point swing games.

If we know this they know this.

The only question is whether they believe they have the guns and/or returning talent to make the push, or if they're getting desperate for some improvement to ENSURE they can take advantage of that situation.

Many here want Lavi fired but is that how they're seeing it internally? Are they looking at the remaining division schedule and the injury situation and thinking "keep the powder dry"?

 

[Langway]

and often times decent teams that haven't gotten a break, and haven't been healthy all of a sudden get a break, get a cpl players back, and go on a real tear; winning can be contagious

Who's to say what will happen the next 20 games?

I, for one, am not afraid to be hopeful and positive (which puts me clearly in the minority here)

While certainly true and possible, I find the limitations of Carlson/Kuznetsov/Strome as two-way players and the unreliability of the PP to be limitations that will be hard to overcome even when they're collectively on their game. There is a peak to how effective they can be when healthy and it's not amazing. They're capable of going on a roll, backed by goaltending and being just opportunistic enough, but I'm not sure the sense and athleticism still plays enough. The next few weeks, with such a heavy road slate, could be crucial in determining whether they can maintain close enough proximity to not fall too significantly behind as to have too little margin for error.

I doubt they wind up with a top 5 pick barring either winning the lottery, quite a few new injuries or shifting gears and selling off at the deadline. While they're not that far off from it at the moment a lot the teams around them aren't going anywhere. They're there to stay and very likely get worse after selling off. I'd guess they're more likely to pick around 10th or so...outside of the range of the absolute premier talent and not strong enough to qualify absent a very fortuitous trade.

 

[YippieKaey]

Im just curious what management is aiming for. Like i know playoffs is good revenue but even in an ideal world, anything beyond a first round exit just seems unlikely for this team. So isn't it better to do a controlled demolition/rebuild than to just wait for the team to completely crumble?

 

[g00n]

If the Tom Wilson they get back is the big-hitting terror that causes the entire opposing team to play hesitant hockey while looking over their shoulders, then that could drastically change the landscape and improve the fortunes and effectiveness of EVERY player on the Caps roster.

if the Tom Wilson they get back is a guy who scores goals at maybe a 20 goal pace and chips in a few assists, you can probably trade that version for a king's ransom based on reputation alone.

 

[Langway]

Big picture I think it needs to be looked at as: are they better than two of FLA/NYI/NYR/PIT? That's a tough ask. The Islanders could fade. The Rangers haven't been great. That's already more or less disbelieving in DET and you never know. I tend to believe FLA/PIT figure it out and then there's the strong likelihood those teams improve at the trade deadline. Injuries could be a key factor but hard to believe the Caps will exceedingly luck out in that regard.

So then if they find themselves at the juncture where they maybe need to add just to keep up with those teams they need to ask themselves if the cost is worth it and what their main objectives are. What's the value in, say, qualifying only to face BOS? Would that secure a Lavi extension? Is there a scenario where a Lavi extension is feasible? So many questions surrounding them that they'll rather quickly need to put to rest in the coming month or so to track well enough to take them seriously.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Im just curious what management is aiming for. Like i know playoffs is good revenue but even in an ideal world, anything beyond a first round exit just seems unlikely for this team. So isn't it better to do a controlled demolition/rebuild than to just wait for the team to completely crumble?

I think you’ll see that this summer. What they’re likely not going to do is, tear it down early.

 

[twabby]

Big picture I think it needs to be looked at as: are they better than two of FLA/NYI/NYR/PIT? That's a tough ask. The Islanders could fade. The Rangers haven't been great. That's already more or less disbelieving in DET and you never know. I tend to believe FLA/PIT figure it out and then there's the strong likelihood those teams improve at the trade deadline. Injuries could be a key factor but hard to believe the Caps will exceedingly luck out in that regard.

So then if they find themselves at the juncture where they maybe need to add just to keep up with those teams they need to ask themselves if the cost is worth it and what their main objectives are. What's the value in, say, qualifying only to face BOS? Would that secure a Lavi extension? Is there a scenario where a Lavi extension is feasible? So many questions surrounding them that they'll rather quickly need to put to rest in the coming month or so to track well enough to take them seriously.

I tend to think the Rangers and Penguins will figure it out. The Rangers currently sport the 27th best PDO at 0.984. Given their talent at goaltending and the fact that they, like Washington, have usually shot above expectation I suspect they are going through a pretty unlucky start to the season yet they are still currently in a playoff position. They'll be fine.

With Pittsburgh they are putting up some good shot metrics but I trust their goaltending far less than NYR and WSH. Still, Sullivan is a top 2 or 3 coach in the league and I won't believe the Penguins will miss the playoffs until I see it. And Florida is still cruising along at 5v5, though the Maurice hiring was very uninspired. I'd be shocked to see them fall apart with the talent they have.

Really the only team ahead of the Capitals that I think doesn't "deserve" to be in its current spot are the Islanders, but again it's at least reasonable to think they will outperform their metrics at least defensively given Sorokin and Varlamov in net.

I don't see a realistic path to anything good this year. As you mentioned even if they are able to sneak into the WC2 seed are they really going to be able to make some noise? Their best case is probably facing NJ in the first round and putting a scare into them like they did with Florida last year.

 

[Brian23]

Orlov sitting again after going through full practice yesterday. Snively at D..?

 

[hb13xchamps]

I think you’ll see that this summer. What they’re likely not going to do is, tear it down early.

We’ve never seen them be a team that sells off pieces very often, unless it’s a situation where they are proactive at moving a contract early. (Brooks Laich comes to mind)

Unless they absolutely shit the bed and are way out of contention, I don’t see them selling at the TDL. It’s not in GMBMs DNA