Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Roshi]

Brown wasn't really much of a top 6 guy in Ottawa or Toronto either. He was a decent middle 6 complementary piece who got way too many minutes for his actual impact in Ottawa. He's another hard worker which makes him a fan favorite, but that doesn't make an effective top 6 winger on a team hoping to make a bit of noise in the postseason.

I don't think anyone is expecting this team to be among the top tier of teams, but they should be better than what they've shown so far. They shouldn't be as bad at generating chances as they are now (30th of 32 teams in chance generation at 5v5, in the neighborhood of teams like the Blackhawks, Sharks, Ducks, Flyers, and Coyotes). There's something fundamentally flawed about how the team is approaching the offensive side of the game, and I don't think it's just aging talent (though that does limit their ceiling).

I don't buy that Bear has much room to grow and right now he's maybe a third pairing guy. Again, I don't mean to rehash the offseason discussions but in general I don't really think defensemen do much growth after their first season or so. Especially since Bear is now 25 years old.

While i generally can agree to some point that a stat like ”generating chances” might give you somekind of touch which teams are succesfull long term, theres always lots of context to add there why im not overly concerned about ”behind the stats” metrics. I mean, just now we are outperforming the statistic yet again, although the sample size is small.

For example lots of those chances are generated at PP, while our PP isnt build to ’create chances’ - but to ’create the chance’. Same goes in the stylistics of ES. Sure, you have a point there on that maybe the system we execute is flawed offensively, but then again it might also be about optimizing strength - as we lack the footspeed or other qualities required. Propably its combination of both.

And while the averages might have some say in big sample sizes, the game is still played a game at a time. It doesnt matter if you create 10 or 20 chances on a game that you win 4-1. Another factor is how our team also plays like what they are, old boys, and turtle away when having a comfortable lead. That too sometimes end up biting our own ass, but moreso effects the averages maybe more than the result itself.

Just spitspalling for waste of time around here i would actually be interested if you want to see the trouble to break out the generating chances stats into while we are leading vs while we are trailing/tied and compare that to the league. Maybe we still suck, but that has atleast a bit more context imo.

 

[RedRocking]

It’s time for top line Mantha (as others have suggested). He can create space like Wilson, he’s strong on the puck and good at extending o-zone possessions - which would lead to more opportunities for Ovi. Plus, he can snipe at anytime himself, and may get some better looks with all the attention given to Ovi.

I don’t know what’s going on with Kuzy and whether he needs to be back up with Ovi. But, (using the eye test) imho he doesn’t look right - his first few strides have a noticeable hitch or limp to them, and he’s not accelerating like usual.

I don’t know if he came into camp out of shape, or has a nagging injury. I just hope it’s something he can work through (even if it’s a mental funk). This team needs him engaged and in last year’s form to really succeed, as he’s the only guy that really puts pressure on opposing teams. Hope we see that guy soon.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Goalies, Fever, Protas, and Sheary have been real bright spots so far this early season. The physical play is picking up too. Kuzy needs to wakeup and play focused. I believe the goalies can get us in a lower seed if Kuzy plays up to his potential. Nothing more irksome than moody players.

It’s time for top line Mantha (as others have suggested). He can create space like Wilson, he’s strong on the puck and good at extending o-zone possessions - which would lead to more opportunities for Ovi. Plus, he can snipe at anytime himself, and may get some better looks with all the attention given to Ovi.

I don’t know what’s going on with Kuzy and whether he needs to be back up with Ovi. But, (using the eye test) imho he doesn’t look right - his first few strides have a noticeable hitch or limp to them, and he’s not accelerating like usual.

I don’t know if he came into camp out of shape, or has a nagging injury. I just hope it’s something he can work through (even if it’s a mental funk). This team needs him engaged and in last year’s form to really succeed, as he’s the only guy that really puts pressure on opposing teams. Hope we see that guy soon.

It's his attitude imho.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I’m afraid this board — group of posters — isn’t ready for a middling to bad Caps team.

I certainly hope this years version isn’t that.

But it’s coming. It’s inevitable. What rises, falls. Being angry and bitching about it doesn’t help much, however we are all arm chair GM’s in some shape or form.

Aren’t we?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m afraid this board — group of posters — isn’t ready for a middling to bad Caps team.

I certainly hope this years version isn’t that.

But it’s coming. It’s inevitable. What rises, falls. Being angry and bitching about it doesn’t help much, however we are all arm chair GM’s in some shape or form.

Aren’t we?

Oh it’s gonna get bad when the real drop-off happens lol….

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’m afraid this board — group of posters — isn’t ready for a middling to bad Caps team.

I certainly hope this years version isn’t that.

But it’s coming. It’s inevitable. What rises, falls. Being angry and bitching about it doesn’t help much, however we are all arm chair GM’s in some shape or form.

Aren’t we?

Isn’t that the point of these boards?

Yeah; it’s going to get bad. I think for me I’m fine being bad if we are bad for a purpose and there is a plan to not be bad in place. Right now there seems to be no plan.

 

[Langway]

It's a good year to suck if they do indeed suck. I think the issue is more both how they may have reached that point and also what kind of stupid short-sighted shit they may try to pull off to try to paper over it.

 

[twabby]

I was just thinking how it’s weird how the fan expectations for Fever as a rookie and now in his 2nd year are so high, as if he should have some how been a lot better immediately, where as fans are willing to gift CMM his ice time with no real expectations last year or this….

My expectations for Fehervary aren’t high. I’m mainly disappointed that management/Laviolette are trying to force him into a role he is clearly not ready for.

The issue with these two players comes down to evaluation and projection. I think you and I disagree with how impactful McMichael and Fehervary were last year. As such I think you have my expectations backwards as well: my expectations for McMichael are way higher than they are for Fehervary precisely because he showed much more than Fehervary last year.

If McMichael ever gets a legitimate opportunity and blows it then I’d be quite disappointed. But right now he’s on the Jonas Siegenthaler path.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

My expectations for Fehervary aren’t high. I’m mainly disappointed that management/Laviolette are trying to force him into a role he is clearly not ready for.

The issue with these two players comes down to evaluation and projection. I think you and I disagree with how impactful McMichael and Fehervary were last year. As such I think you have my expectations backwards as well: my expectations for McMichael are way higher than they are for Fehervary precisely because he showed much more than Fehervary last year.

If McMichael ever gets a legitimate opportunity and blows it then I’d be quite disappointed. But right now he’s on the Jonas Siegenthaler path.

I think it’s clear your views on development are a little off.

Cries of his development being ruined or run out of town whatever is the same type of nonsense you all said about Wilson being wasted/ruined/a bust….

I never said Fever was impactful, but he wasn’t a boat anchor on the 1st pair as a rookie and that’s not terrible. CMM kinda tilting ice 8 mins a game is certainly less impactful. Neither was amazing, but one earned a fulltime role at least.

 

[twabby]

I think it’s clear your views on development are a little off.

Cries of his development being ruined or run out of town whatever is the same type of nonsense you all said about Wilson being wasted/ruined/a bust….

I never said Fever was impactful, but he wasn’t a boat anchor on the 1st pair as a rookie and that’s not terrible. CMM kinda tilting ice 8 mins a game is certainly less impactful. Neither was amazing, but one earned a fulltime role at least.

I don’t think I’ve ever said his development is being ruined. However I do think him sitting in the press box eating chicken tenders and waffle fries hurts the team. They need ice-tilters to complement their more skilled players. The only forward who kind of tilts the ice now is Mantha, and it’s a big reason why they can’t break through against teams playing with any semblance of a defensive structure in the postseason.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on Fehervary’s play last year. According to most models he was below replacement. If that isn’t a metaphorical boat anchor I don’t know what is. Him continuing to “earn” top 4 minutes brings into question how the coaches and management are evaluating certain players. It’s concerning.

 

[traparatus]

I don’t think I’ve ever said his development is being ruined. However I do think him sitting in the press box eating chicken tenders and waffle fries hurts the team. They need ice-tilters to complement their more skilled players. The only forward who kind of tilts the ice now is Mantha, and it’s a big reason why they can’t break through against teams playing with any semblance of a defensive structure in the postseason.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on Fehervary’s play last year. According to most models he was below replacement. If that isn’t a metaphorical boat anchor I don’t know what is. Him continuing to “earn” top 4 minutes brings into question how the coaches and management are evaluating certain players. It’s concerning.

I don't think this evaluation is specific to the Caps. Big body players who can skate well seem to have a special appeal to many management teams across the league, though not all.

All in all, Fehervary hasn't done anything to be in the top-4 game in and game out. He should be on the 3rd pair, playing a simple game. I'm a little surprised that Orlov-Jensen pairing has been broken up. It's proven to be one of this team's real strengths and I wouldn't mess with it to accommodate Fehervary or Carlson, for that matter.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Isn’t that the point of these boards?

Yeah; it’s going to get bad. I think for me I’m fine being bad if we are bad for a purpose and there is a plan to not be bad in place. Right now there seems to be no plan.

I understand peoples need to vent. But if you read this thread and the Skins thread, it’s pretty similar. But it obv isn’t.

They have a plan. It’s to not be bad.

If the plan fails, and they are bad……I’m sure the plan will change quickly. GMBM knows what he’s doing. As much as many people want to state/think otherwise.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It's a good year to suck if they do indeed suck. I think the issue is more both how they may have reached that point and also what kind of stupid short-sighted shit they may try to pull off to try to paper over it.

Not sure I see this regime as ones to fall prey to this. Most of all of their moves — even the ones that didn’t work out well — had some form of prudence to them. Worst is prob the Schultz contract. And that was thankfully only 2 yrs.

You have evidence to the contrary?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t think I’ve ever said his development is being ruined. However I do think him sitting in the press box eating chicken tenders and waffle fries hurts the team. They need ice-tilters to complement their more skilled players. The only forward who kind of tilts the ice now is Mantha, and it’s a big reason why they can’t break through against teams playing with any semblance of a defensive structure in the postseason.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on Fehervary’s play last year. According to most models he was below replacement. If that isn’t a metaphorical boat anchor I don’t know what is. Him continuing to “earn” top 4 minutes brings into question how the coaches and management are evaluating certain players. It’s concerning.

I said “wasted/ruined/a bust”….you’re obviously in the you feel he’s being wasted right now camp.

Only math dorks believe made up models….he was in no way bad. He was a damn rookie dude…wake up.

 

[Jags]

In other news, Kempny with a severe laceration in his second game overseas. Apparently he blocked a shot that hit just above the tongue of his skate, causing a tear that lead to a gusher.

This guy has the worst luck. Hope he's okay.

 

[Jags]

I’m afraid this board — group of posters — isn’t ready for a middling to bad Caps team.

I certainly hope this years version isn’t that.

But it’s coming. It’s inevitable. What rises, falls. Being angry and bitching about it doesn’t help much, however we are all arm chair GM’s in some shape or form.

Aren’t we?

Middling isn't difficult to accept. Exit in the first round and you're literally a middle-of-the-pack team. So we've been that for years now. We certainly don't have to be a bad team, but a team built the way this one is can't weather or overcome things great teams can, like unremarkable coaching, key injuries, and uninspired play scattered throughout the lineup. A team like this one has to fire on all cylinders to really compete, and we're all over the place right now.

 

[Portable Mink]

Carlson is the laziest person on the roster these days. He looks like he doesn’t give a rats. He is a cup winning vet on 8m and that kinda thing is detrimental to the culture of the team.

 

[pman25]

I just wonder why Beck Malenstyn is playing. Didn’t Eller play some wing last year? Why not pair him with Dowd Hathaway and Lavi can run that line into the ground when he needs to defend a lead or whatever. That opens 3C for McMichael.

 

[max21]

I’m afraid this board — group of posters — isn’t ready for a middling to bad Caps team.

I certainly hope this years version isn’t that.

But it’s coming. It’s inevitable. What rises, falls. Being angry and bitching about it doesn’t help much, however we are all arm chair GM’s in some shape or form.

Aren’t we?

I always thought this was an interesting take, through free agency they can always stay competitive even after the Ovechkin years. Sure it won’t be the same without him but some of our draft picks could hit in a few years and then build via free agency sort of like what the Rangers did.

 

[Langway]

Not sure I see this regime as ones to fall prey to this. Most of all of their moves — even the ones that didn’t work out well — had some form of prudence to them. Worst is prob the Schultz contract. And that was thankfully only 2 yrs.

You have evidence to the contrary?

It was under McPhee but there was the Erat trade. I just mostly wonder whether ownership would back a plan to either sit tight at the deadline or to sell for once (should injuries hit or something). More likely I think there will be a lot of pressure put on to shake things up well before the deadline if need be or to otherwise somewhat aggressively attempt to simply reach the playoffs once again by whatever means necessary.

Put another way: at no point do I think there's going to be an assessment along the lines of whether they're a legit Cup contender or not and, consequently, what logically should follow from that to restructure in a fashion more forward-thinking if their course remains middling. They'll nickel and dime their way toward a playoff berth even if it costs them tomorrow. It's evident in how they operate day-to-day developmentally. The current process is incredibly limited in scope and ambition. And because of that if push comes to shove I think they're fully prepared to desperately go down that path to its logical conclusion. Even if their goals are in the bigger picture very, very limited it's hard to see them fully, actively, responsibly switching gears. Organizationally it would take a lot of changes, starting with a new coaching staff with a fundamentally different approach striking a better balance re: competing vs. development, immediate gratification vs. investment.

Should they continue to either struggle or remain a .500 sort of team there need to be some fundamental questions asked about the viability of the core and whether restructuring is needed. That should inform any in-season shake-ups. Maybe there's no market or appetite for something seismic with the core until the off-season but any significant moves involving futures need to take into consideration a much broader perspective. This is a core group that's beginning to fundamentally not move the needle enough in crucial areas. Whatever assets they're willing to part with need to be spent with an incredibly targeted and realistic assessment of what they have and what they're lacking and not just whatever may conveniently fit to maybe slightly improve their chances today.

 

[twabby]

 

[pman25]

We’re gonna go scoreless again aren’t we…until beck malenstyn banks one in randomly. That’s the way.

 

[McVechkin]

This handling of cmc just doesn’t feel real.

 

[g00n]

Isn’t that the point of these boards?

Yeah; it’s going to get bad. I think for me I’m fine being bad if we are bad for a purpose and there is a plan to not be bad in place. Right now there seems to be no plan.

There is a plan you just haven't come to terms with it.

The plan is to play out this year and see what this group can do. That's why half the forwards and most of the D have contracts expiring. That makes it easy to offload dead weight at the TDL if necessary, and make roster moves whether selling or buying.

Doesn't that seem PLANNED to you?

The sooner you just strap in and accept "the plan" the less agitated you'll be on game day.

What kind of "plan" were you thinking of?

 

[HTFN]

There is a plan you just haven't come to terms with it.

The plan is to play out this year and see what this group can do. That's why half the forwards and most of the D have contracts expiring. That makes it easy to offload dead weight at the TDL if necessary, and make roster moves whether selling or buying.

Doesn't that seem PLANNED to you?

The sooner you just strap in and accept "the plan" the less agitated you'll be on game day.

What kind of "plan" were you thinking of?

preferably a good one?

if the "plan" is to overhaul the roster after this year then the worst first move is to talk about extending a stale coach who doesn't appear to be getting anything from his choice group of players right now.

this team doesn't do anything well and is actively refusing the shot in the arm that gave them pop last year. same coach making that decision. Absolutely zero correlation between on ice product and "earning it" too

it's like refusing a vaccine at this point, if it's your plan it's a shit plan and you're probably going to hear about it until you fix your life. I don't remember the board rule that insists posters shut up and accept all "evident" plans just because they're going to happen