Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[twabby]

The likes of Graves, Gavrikov or Soucy could in theory be a complementary types partners for Carlson. But I'm skeptical more of a value play is enough these days. Even if they stick with Orlov/Carlson and want a more reliable partner for Jensen I'm skeptical it's enough. They'd need to do significantly more up front that profiles to be playoff style drivers and, again, that's most likely a short list.


Washington had interest in RD Ethan Bear around the draft. He seems likely to move soon.

I generally agree that they really need an impact two-way forward (preferably a C) in order to make noise in the postseason. If none is available then yeah, I'm behind targeting the best LD available and that's likely to be Chychrun if healthy.

Just spitballing a longshot, but I wonder about Dylan Larkin up front. Detroit is making some strides but Yzerman is known for making bold moves if he thinks a guy won't be a long-term fit. Detroit isn't exactly flush with centers so it seems unlikely he makes it to free agency, but he's a name I'm keeping my eye on as the season progresses. I have trouble seeing Detroit being in the playoff picture at the TDL so if he's not re-signed by then maybe he'll be available. Washington would have the flexibility this offseason to re-sign him if Backstrom is indeed forced to retire and he's still well on the good side of 30, so even an 8-year deal buys a lot of good seasons from Larkin in that case.

 

[PlushMinus]

I wonder if Backstrom still remains an option in Managements mind. It would make the acquiring a 2C vs 2LD decision easier.

I think it was mentioned a couple of months back that nobody has ever successfully resumed their career after having that surgery. I can't remember the players who were mentioned, only that they tried and failed to comeback.

 

[trick9]

The likes of Graves, Gavrikov or Soucy could in theory be a complementary types partners for Carlson. But I'm skeptical more of a value play is enough these days. Even if they stick with Orlov/Carlson and want a more reliable partner for Jensen I'm skeptical it's enough. They'd need to do significantly more up front that profiles to be playoff style drivers and, again, that's most likely a short list.


Washington had interest in RD Ethan Bear around the draft. He seems likely to move soon.

Those 3 all seem good options to help Carlson, but i'm not sure either Devils or Blue Jackets would be keen on helping the Capitals fill a huge hole. Blue Jackets for example are very high on Gavrikov too.

Gustafsson has been fine so far, hard to believe it'd be us acquiring Bear right now. If he hits the waivers? Could be.

I generally agree that they really need an impact two-way forward (preferably a C) in order to make noise in the postseason. If none is available then yeah, I'm behind targeting the best LD available and that's likely to be Chychrun if healthy.

Just spitballing a longshot, but I wonder about Dylan Larkin up front. Detroit is making some strides but Yzerman is known for making bold moves if he thinks a guy won't be a long-term fit. Detroit isn't exactly flush with centers so it seems unlikely he makes it to free agency, but he's a name I'm keeping my eye on as the season progresses. I have trouble seeing Detroit being in the playoff picture at the TDL so if he's not re-signed by then maybe he'll be available. Washington would have the flexibility this offseason to re-sign him if Backstrom is indeed forced to retire and he's still well on the good side of 30, so even an 8-year deal buys a lot of good seasons from Larkin in that case.

Very hard to believe he would ever be available but i'd give just about any of the futures to acquire him with an 8-year contract on the table. I don't see that 1) he'll ever be available or 2) we have good enough top asset to acquire him.

 

[John Price]

 

[dave_no]

Why are caps killing CMM careers?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I generally agree that they really need an impact two-way forward (preferably a C) in order to make noise in the postseason. If none is available then yeah, I'm behind targeting the best LD available and that's likely to be Chychrun if healthy.

Just spitballing a longshot, but I wonder about Dylan Larkin up front. Detroit is making some strides but Yzerman is known for making bold moves if he thinks a guy won't be a long-term fit. Detroit isn't exactly flush with centers so it seems unlikely he makes it to free agency, but he's a name I'm keeping my eye on as the season progresses. I have trouble seeing Detroit being in the playoff picture at the TDL so if he's not re-signed by then maybe he'll be available. Washington would have the flexibility this offseason to re-sign him if Backstrom is indeed forced to retire and he's still well on the good side of 30, so even an 8-year deal buys a lot of good seasons from Larkin in that case.

Love Larkin but I’m not sure I want to trade with Yzerman

 

[twabby]

Very hard to believe he would ever be available but i'd give just about any of the futures to acquire him with an 8-year contract on the table. I don't see that 1) he'll ever be available or 2) we have good enough top asset to acquire him.

For sure. Every time it seems like a big-name UFA is going to go to market they just end up re-signing. It happened last year with Hertl, where he probably should have been traded given the trajectory of the Sharks but they just ended up re-signing him. Detroit has much more reason to hold onto Larkin than SJ did with Hertl, but you never know. I'm probably just hoping beyond hope that there is a good center option available!

 

[HecticGlow]

I think it was mentioned a couple of months back that nobody has ever successfully resumed their career after having that surgery. I can't remember the players who were mentioned, only that they tried and failed to comeback.

I was under the impression nobody at the NHL level had ever had the surgery and seriously attempted a comeback. But that logic can also be somewhat self-defeating - similarly to the Sabres refusing Eichel the replacement disk surgery because no NHLer had ever had it before. How many guys have put off having surgeries like hip replacements because there was no precedent for it working and allowing them to play?

GMBM said he only spent half Backstrom’s cap hit because he needed to keep the door open for him returning this season. I think they’d have used up all their LTIR if they thought Backstrom returning this year wasn’t a real possibility.



The bit I thought was most curious - Sportlogic has him among team leaders in a few key areas at Even Strength:

Zone entry success - 2nd
OZ possession - 4th
Shots - 4th
Slot shots - T-1st
Cycle chances - T-1st

The praise from Oshie about Mojo on the Power Play is also, I think, significant. Basically said he’s as good in that goal-line spot as anyone. Neither Kuzy nor Backstrom were ever as comfortable screening the goalie as Mojo is, and his puck retrieval skill on the PP is also under appreciated.

If Mojo can stay healthy, I wouldn’t mind him signing a cheap 2 year deal to stick around beyond this season. Something like 2 x 1.5 would be exceptional value for what he brings.

 

[zappa4ever]

Season's about to get real over the next few weeks, super busy stretch of 13 in 24 days, look at the last 7 gms before they get a break
Let's hope the road does them some good the next few, they're gonna need to gel and get some chemistry right quick

 

[kicksavedave]

I think it was mentioned a couple of months back that nobody has ever successfully resumed their career after having that surgery. I can't remember the players who were mentioned, only that they tried and failed to comeback.

A couple guys came back and played a few games at a very low level and retired (Jovonoski I think). A few other guys never made it back to play in the NHL. So there is zero track record of success with this specific procedure and returning to a high level in the NHL.

Our worst case is Backie comes back and plays roughly like last year.... They will be stuck with that cap hit and journeyman performance, most specifically an inability to defend in the NHL. He'll be able to man the half wall on the PP and dish out his sweet passes, but not if he's pressured at all. It will be sad to watch, like this past season was.

 

[RedRocking]

For sure. Every time it seems like a big-name UFA is going to go to market they just end up re-signing. It happened last year with Hertl, where he probably should have been traded given the trajectory of the Sharks but they just ended up re-signing him. Detroit has much more reason to hold onto Larkin than SJ did with Hertl, but you never know. I'm probably just hoping beyond hope that there is a good center option available!

I think this has been especially true recently as teams are concerned about attendance after all the lost revenue during COVID (esp in Canada). And then there’s the whole cap going up 4M (I’ll believe that when I see it), so teams feel they have more to work with.

No one seems to want to look - to their respective fanbases - like they’re tanking, or rebuilding, even though this is the year to do so. I have no idea what the Sharks think they’re doing out here, lol.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

A couple guys came back and played a few games at a very low level and retired (Jovonoski I think). A few other guys never made it back to play in the NHL. So there is zero track record of success with this specific procedure and returning to a high level in the NHL.

Our worst case is Backie comes back and plays roughly like last year.... They will be stuck with that cap hit and journeyman performance, most specifically an inability to defend in the NHL. He'll be able to man the half wall on the PP and dish out his sweet passes, but not if he's pressured at all. It will be sad to watch, like this past season was.

If he comes back and can’t skate they’ll just LTIRetire him. Neither Backstrom nor the Caps want to have that version of Backstrom on the ice.

 

[PlushMinus]

If he comes back and can’t skate they’ll just LTIRetire him. Neither Backstrom nor the Caps want to have that version of Backstrom on the ice.

Pfft I don't know about that. They already have a few guys on the roster who can barely skate and generate any kind of offense

 

[Roshi]

I generally agree that they really need an impact two-way forward (preferably a C) in order to make noise in the postseason. If none is available then yeah, I'm behind targeting the best LD available and that's likely to be Chychrun if healthy.

Just spitballing a longshot, but I wonder about Dylan Larkin up front. Detroit is making some strides but Yzerman is known for making bold moves if he thinks a guy won't be a long-term fit. Detroit isn't exactly flush with centers so it seems unlikely he makes it to free agency, but he's a name I'm keeping my eye on as the season progresses. I have trouble seeing Detroit being in the playoff picture at the TDL so if he's not re-signed by then maybe he'll be available. Washington would have the flexibility this offseason to re-sign him if Backstrom is indeed forced to retire and he's still well on the good side of 30, so even an 8-year deal buys a lot of good seasons from Larkin in that case.

Id figure they are banking that ”impact two-way forward” for Willy and Brown returning. Thats two 20G , 40+ point two-way forwards.

Our offence is stacked enough for us to have the endless CMM debate. Next move should be for the weak area, D. Chychrun makes sense but we should prepare to be ”shocked” for the price paid should BM go that way. And we saw with the Mantha-trade that BM doesnt shy around with overpaying if he feels like its what we need.

Bear sounds like next Kempny-Jensen-etc experiment. I can get behind that.

Lots of drama here (unsuprisingly) for slowish 4-4 start. Im not worried yet. We survived the start and are still one hot streak away from being ”safe”. Thats our life today, surviving for hot streak. Theres lot of guys especially on the front end who hasnt yet found the gear and we are still at 50%. Ovie will ger some of those posts going in soon enough and Carlson and Kuznetsov will have a break where they remember they should be allstar-level, and we will have some sort of winning streak going on our way.

And then we will get couple big names back and build from there. Some positive signs already with goalies providing the help we have hoped and the depth players looking ready to carry some of the weight.

 

[twabby]

Id figure they are banking that ”impact two-way forward” for Willy and Brown returning. Thats two 20G , 40+ point two-way forwards.

Our offence is stacked enough for us to have the endless CMM debate. Next move should be for the weak area, D. Chychrun makes sense but we should prepare to be ”shocked” for the price paid should BM go that way. And we saw with the Mantha-trade that BM doesnt shy around with overpaying if he feels like its what we need.

Bear sounds like next Kempny-Jensen-etc experiment. I can get behind that.

Lots of drama here (unsuprisingly) for slowish 4-4 start. Im not worried yet. We survived the start and are still one hot streak away from being ”safe”. Thats our life today, surviving for hot streak. Theres lot of guys especially on the front end who hasnt yet found the gear and we are still at 50%. Ovie will ger some of those posts going in soon enough and Carlson and Kuznetsov will have a break where they remember they should be allstar-level, and we will have some sort of winning streak going on our way.

And then we will get couple big names back and build from there. Some positive signs already with goalies providing the help we have hoped and the depth players looking ready to carry some of the weight.

Wilson should help but did Brown really show much of anything before he got hurt? And who knows when he’ll actually return.

I don’t need to rehash but this team’s weakness over the past 4 seasons has been chance generation offensively. Does some of that stem from a few weak links on the blue line? Maybe, but I think most of the issue lies with the weak centers in the top 9. Strome was a good value add but he’s not a big impact player. Kuznetsov is flashy at times but he doesn’t drive play or sustain possessions. Eller is Eller.

If this were just a bad start I wouldn’t be as worried, but this is a 4+ year problem. They can’t score when teams tighten up, especially in the postseason. The offense is predicated on opportunism and snipes. That works when the opposition makes mistakes or they’re facing Mackenzie Blackwood, but it’s not going to work against better teams.

I’m not sold on Ethan Bear. He’s a guy. Maybe he can do ok on the third pairing, but he doesn’t have nearly the track record of Jensen when he was acquired, nor Kempny really.

 

[Roshi]

Wilson should help but did Brown really show much of anything before he got hurt? And who knows when he’ll actually return.

I don’t need to rehash but this team’s weakness over the past 4 seasons has been chance generation offensively. Does some of that stem from a few weak links on the blue line? Maybe, but I think most of the issue lies with the weak centers in the top 9. Strome was a good value add but he’s not a big impact player. Kuznetsov is flashy at times but he doesn’t drive play or sustain possessions. Eller is Eller.

If this were just a bad start I wouldn’t be as worried, but this is a 4+ year problem. They can’t score when teams tighten up, especially in the postseason. The offense is predicated on opportunism and snipes. That works when the opposition makes mistakes or they’re facing Mackenzie Blackwood, but it’s not going to work against better teams.

I’m not sold on Ethan Bear. He’s a guy. Maybe he can do ok on the third pairing, but he doesn’t have nearly the track record of Jensen when he was acquired, nor Kempny really.

Brown played 3 and half games. Id figure we should give a little more time atleast

The team is what it is. The problem you issue isnt going to get fixed anytime soon, those kind of elite centers or elite talent just arent avaivable. Dylan Strome was pretty much a top3 option in the market and we got him (Yeah, i hope we went after Eichel too, when the sweeptakes were on). So instead of pipe dreaming id focus on riding and optimizing the strengths we have, while minisizing and controlling the weaknesses through tweaks and game management. We had the Panthers in the ropes, and we have a new chance this year to find another trick to get it done this time.

Yeah i do agree we havent really been optimizing our strengths lately though.

But generally we need to accept that we are not a toplevel-contender anymore, and wont be there for the next decade. We wont be coasting through an easy RS anymore. So instead of being angry all the time for losing reg season games here or there or get eliminated in round1, i look forward for another chance to make a suprise-run.

Kempny had 80 games and Jensen had two and half-seasons (about 180 games) when we traded for them. Sure the analytics liked them, but i wouldnt say they had a ”long track record” when we got em. They were ”lets see what we bought” guys. Bear has 180 games and has room to grow. Im not excited for us being on the ”interested”-list, but im cool if we get him.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Brown played 3 and half games. Id figure we should give a little more time atleast

The team is what it is. The problem you issue isnt going to get fixed anytime soon, those kind of elite centers or elite talent just arent avaivable. Dylan Strome was pretty much a top3 option in the market and we got him (Yeah, i hope we went after Eichel too, when the sweeptakes were on). So instead of pipe dreaming id focus on riding and optimizing the strengths we have, while minisizing and controlling the weaknesses through tweaks and game management. We had the Panthers in the ropes, and we have a new chance this year to find another trick to get it done this time.

Yeah i do agree we havent really been optimizing our strengths lately though.

But generally we need to accept that we are not a toplevel-contender anymore, and wont be there for the next decade. We wont be coasting through an easy RS anymore. So instead of being angry all the time for losing reg season games here or there or get eliminated in round1, i look forward for another chance to make a suprise-run.

Kempny had 80 games and Jensen had two and half-seasons (about 180 games) when we traded for them. Sure the analytics liked them, but i wouldnt say they had a ”long track record” when we got em. They were ”lets see what we bought” guys. Bear has 180 games and has room to grow. Im not excited for us being on the ”interested”-list, but im cool if we get him.

I think the point is there will be no surprise run until they can integrate younger talent.

 

[Roshi]

I think the point is there will be no surprise run until they can integrate younger talent.

Whats the obsession with younger talent. Why cant it be just talent.

But sure, and i think thats what they did this offseason with Kuemper, Brown and Strome. Is that the right combo, or is that enough, remains to be seen

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I really just want to see Ovi goals this year.

 

[twabby]

Brown played 3 and half games. Id figure we should give a little more time atleast

The team is what it is. The problem you issue isnt going to get fixed anytime soon, those kind of elite centers or elite talent just arent avaivable. Dylan Strome was pretty much a top3 option in the market and we got him (Yeah, i hope we went after Eichel too, when the sweeptakes were on). So instead of pipe dreaming id focus on riding and optimizing the strengths we have, while minisizing and controlling the weaknesses through tweaks and game management. We had the Panthers in the ropes, and we have a new chance this year to find another trick to get it done this time.

Yeah i do agree we havent really been optimizing our strengths lately though.

But generally we need to accept that we are not a toplevel-contender anymore, and wont be there for the next decade. We wont be coasting through an easy RS anymore. So instead of being angry all the time for losing reg season games here or there or get eliminated in round1, i look forward for another chance to make a suprise-run.

Kempny had 80 games and Jensen had two and half-seasons (about 180 games) when we traded for them. Sure the analytics liked them, but i wouldnt say they had a ”long track record” when we got em. They were ”lets see what we bought” guys. Bear has 180 games and has room to grow. Im not excited for us being on the ”interested”-list, but im cool if we get him.

Brown wasn't really much of a top 6 guy in Ottawa or Toronto either. He was a decent middle 6 complementary piece who got way too many minutes for his actual impact in Ottawa. He's another hard worker which makes him a fan favorite, but that doesn't make an effective top 6 winger on a team hoping to make a bit of noise in the postseason.

I don't think anyone is expecting this team to be among the top tier of teams, but they should be better than what they've shown so far. They shouldn't be as bad at generating chances as they are now (30th of 32 teams in chance generation at 5v5, in the neighborhood of teams like the Blackhawks, Sharks, Ducks, Flyers, and Coyotes). There's something fundamentally flawed about how the team is approaching the offensive side of the game, and I don't think it's just aging talent (though that does limit their ceiling).

I don't buy that Bear has much room to grow and right now he's maybe a third pairing guy. Again, I don't mean to rehash the offseason discussions but in general I don't really think defensemen do much growth after their first season or so. Especially since Bear is now 25 years old.

 

[itsjustsurvival]

Whats the obsession with younger talent. Why cant it be just talent.

But sure, and i think thats what they did this offseason with Kuemper, Brown and Strome. Is that the right combo, or is that enough, remains to be seen

I mean, I agree, bringing in talent regardless of age is fine. I can only speak for myself, but my "obsession" isn't really with younger players, it's that most of the roster currently can't demonstrate more than one above average ability at any given time. The few guys who skate well aren't playmaking or shooting well (Kuznetsov is one of the few who can but isn't right now). The playmakers can't skate. The shooters can't make plays. Orlov aside, most of the top players aren't showing a high level of compete.

You don't have to be the fastest team, but you have to manage the puck well in that case. 5 on 5, I don't think they have shown an ability to do that anymore. Maybe it's the system they are playing, but it's frustrating to watch them turn the puck over constantly all game at even strength while generating little to no high danger chances. Younger players tend to be faster and more creative, hence my tendency to suggest adding them into the mix. But I'd be happy with any upgrades at this point regardless of age.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

@twabby change my mind: Kuznetsov has been the most disappointing player on the team thus far.

 

[Monsterrain]

Id scratch mantha for a game. Lets see if he even cares or will he go back to just coasting around the ice. Terrible contract.

 

[twabby]

@twabby change my mind: Kuznetsov has been the most disappointing player on the team thus far.

I wouldn’t go that far. He still leads the team in 5v5 scoring, is third on the team in terms of chance generation at 5v5, and is only behind Johansson in terms of goal differential per 60 at 5v5. His numbers are a bit inflated since he missed the Ottawa game, but he’s still not the most disappointing on my list. He made a mistake last night, but he’s kind of who I thought he’d be entering the season: a guy who can score but isn’t really a good 1C on a good team.

Relative to my expectations I’m most disappointed in Strome so far. I thought he’d be another good 2C option at ES but he hasn’t really don’t much offensively except for a few neat plays on the PP. I was hoping he’d be a bit more dynamic so far despite being a slower skater but he hasn’t really shown it. Maybe he needs a bit more time to gel, but this might just be who he is.

The D who are really struggling (Carlson and Fehervary in particular) aren’t really surprises so hard for me to be too disappointed in them. But the team has to address their poor play one way or another if they hope to do anything this year.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Not a huge fan of CMM and have wanted to sell high and trade him, but we are absolutely ruining his development and tanking his value. Idiotic.