Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

preferably a good one?

if the "plan" is to overhaul the roster after this year then the worst first move is to talk about extending a stale coach who doesn't appear to be getting anything from his choice group of players right now.

this team doesn't do anything well and is actively refusing the shot in the arm that gave them pop last year. same coach making that decision. Absolutely zero correlation between on ice product and "earning it" too

it's like refusing a vaccine at this point, if it's your plan it's a shit plan and you're probably going to hear about it until you fix your life. I don't remember the board rule that insists posters shut up and accept all "evident" plans just because they're going to happen

Ok if you're the GM what good would it do to start talking shit about the coach in October? Doesn't that become a distraction in the room and possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy? What about the "dreaded vote of confidence" given to coaches on the chopping block?

I wouldn't read a f***ing thing into these kinds of statements. They can be rescinded in seconds.

And ho said anything about breaking rules?

If someone is bitching about the same inane shit every day they're going to have to expect some replies to that. It's repetitive and tedious. And it's disingenuous or foolish to pretend there's no plan when there clearly is.

Is it a good plan? We can't say for sure right now. Nobody knows.

How did things look in 2017-18 for more than half the season? And at the start of the playoffs? Not good, right?

Plus, because of that guy's avatar I'm starting to associate Peter Bondra with endless bitching about youth and speed and CMM and I don't like that.

 

[Langway]

Having a bunch of contracts expiring isn't really a plan. It's a potential pivot point but I'd be surprised if at any point in the Ovechkin Era they deviate from believing they're obligated to aggressively build around him and maintain playoff status. I'd be surprised if any any point they're willing to risk taking a slight step back to take more forward. They don't seem to possess the confidence and self-belief to think they'd nail it.

If things go south this season they're still just going to reload, right? Maybe there's a coaching change but so long as they're properly mid and qualify for the playoffs I don't doubt we get another three years of Lavi and the same mentality. I'd be surprised if there's a significant departure from their longstanding line of reasoning until 2026 at the earliest when they probably become unavoidably and utter terrible (if they don't get there before then).

It is what it is yet there's so much room for improvement within that restricted framework. It's not even so much the strategy and reasoning as the details and execution that falls short of believing they've still really got it organizationally. The degree of difficulty will only get harder and the results in developing crucial secondary compensating strengths the past five years is pretty woeful. At some point, perhaps pretty soon, they need to a wholesale reevaluation in how they're doing business. Because a lot of it seems like stale non-sense.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Setting themselves up for maximum flexibility seems like the more likely plan. You can’t just lock in on a unwavering multi-year master plan today.

I fully believe their primary Organizational goals right now are to make the playoffs, and get Ovy the record.

Beyond that, prepare for a possible major off-season retooling of the roster.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I want a Cap's team with prime Hunter, Ovy, Bondra, Stevens, Iafrate, Langway, Witt, Kolzig, Hatcher, Ridley, Backstrom, Oshie, B. Gustafsson, Simon, and Ciccarelli with current Wilson and Orlov in one lineup. Yeah I left out a few names, but that's what I would love to see in a fantasy realm. If we could only stop time and and juggle those players to be on the same team in their primes.

Setting themselves up for maximum flexibility seems like the more likely plan. You can’t just lock in on a unwavering multi-year master plan today.

I fully believe their primary Organizational goals right now are to make the playoffs, and get Ovy the record.

Beyond that, prepare for a possible major off-season retooling of the roster.

I share this belief also even though I'm one of those wanting more youth injection now. It's all about the record at this point and hoping to get in and make noise. Imho, despite the loss to Dallas, the Caps are improving. Unlucky bounces and stupid decision making cost some games. I rather they get that out now and wait to do it in February.

 

[g00n]

Having a bunch of contracts expiring isn't really a plan. It's a potential pivot point but I'd be surprised if at any point in the Ovechkin Era they deviate from believing they're obligated to aggressively build around him and maintain playoff status. I'd be surprised if any any point they're willing to risk taking a slight step back to take more forward. They don't seem to possess the confidence and self-belief to think they'd nail it.

If things go south this season they're still just going to reload, right? Maybe there's a coaching change but so long as they're properly mid and qualify for the playoffs I don't doubt we get another three years of Lavi and the same mentality. I'd be surprised if there's a significant departure from their longstanding line of reasoning until 2026 at the earliest when they probably become unavoidably and utter terrible (if they don't get there before then).

It is what it is yet there's so much room for improvement within that restricted framework. It's not even so much the strategy and reasoning as the details and execution that falls short of believing they've still really got it organizationally. The degree of difficulty will only get harder and the results in developing crucial secondary compensating strengths the past five years is pretty woeful. At some point, perhaps pretty soon, they need to a wholesale reevaluation in how they're doing business. Because a lot of it seems like stale non-sense.

Good thing I didn't say having contracts expire was the actual plan. I said it should be an indicator that there was a plan in place to play out this season and assess just about everyone, or sell contracts and maybe shitcan the coach by the TDL if things go in the toilet.

 

[Langway]

But every year is year-to-year. I think this is just sort of random happenstance and not some intentional potential inflection point where if certain things don't go to plan that they'll go in a significantly different direction. The objectives will remain the same and that's maintaining a puncher's chance without too much tolerance for risk or significant investment in unknown quantities. The majority of their issues are on the core group and if the core group remains off limits then churning through secondary veteran pieces amounts to a lot of window dressing. Orlov is the main exception to that rule. Hard to believe there's any viable window without him remaining in the fold. The rest? I'm not sure it amounts to much more than pretty normal turnover.

Hard to believe they'd sell at the deadline or really do much of anything drastically out of character while Ovechkin is around. I doubt they approach any given off-season in the meantime any differently than they have since 2008 or so. Maybe they'll have some more flexibility but their M.O. is overwhelmingly likely to what they always have. Maybe they'll have some finality re: 19 to fully spend that chunk of space on more of a long-term 2C but that's only as good as the available market (particularly if they're otherwise unwilling to skimp and wait for more of an ideal fit).

Maybe if they stink and significantly miss their targets they'd be open to trading Carlson or Kuznetsov in the off-season. But even then they may have a tough time conclusively deciding that that's for the best and without risk of them getting worse. I dunno. I just don't tend to think next off-season amounts to a potentially significant turning point. More likely it's just going to remain more of the same until the wheels are clean off.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Doom

(That’s for our boy Tex)

 

[Calicaps]

I want a Cap's team with prime Hunter, Ovy, Bondra, Stevens, Iafrate, Langway, Witt, Kolzig, Hatcher, Ridley, Backstrom, Oshie, B. Gustafsson, Simon, and Ciccarelli with current Wilson and Orlov in one lineup. Yeah I left out a few names, but that's what I would love to see in a fantasy realm. If we could only stop time and and juggle those players to be on the same team in their primes.



I share this belief also even though I'm one of those wanting more youth injection now. It's all about the record at this point and hoping to get in and make noise. Imho, despite the loss to Dallas, the Caps are improving. Unlucky bounces and stupid decision making cost some games. I rather they get that out now and wait to do it in February.

Agree they have looked a bit better of late. And yes, some laziness (hi, Carlson!) and stupidity have cost them. Chemistry remains an issue with all the shuffling of lines and pairs too. Will they put it all together enough to be competitive? Dunno. Young'ns are getting some looks, but I'd be fine to see more. Though really none of them have been impactful yet. Mojo has been a legit surprise so far. Didn't expect him to do much.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They could alter 60%+ of the starting lineup this off-season. Let’s not pretend that’s insignificant.

19 could be done, Kuzy, Carlson, Oshie, anyone else could be moved….or let go.

 

[RedRocking]

GMBM has stated numerous times that this is a transitional season (or some words to that effect). I don’t think the number of expiring contracts is an accident. What he intends on doing with that flexibility remains to be seen - as this season has yet to play out.

I do think that they’re going to (unfortunately) run this core into the ground until they are no longer a viable playoff team and/or Ovi’s chase is either won or falls short. I’m not a big fan of this mentality, especially selling out long term needs for a goals record. Ovi at #2 behind 99 is just fine by me.

Also, from Ted’s business perspective, there’s no guarantee that the DMV remains a hockey town post-Ovi. This isn’t Boston or Chicago, so I imagine he’s also pushing to run this core into the ground.

That all being said, I’m personally not one to bitch and complain because we’ve had it so good for so long (at least RS success), and the cycle eventually comes around. And it’s not like the team is trash, and this core may ultimately be the best we see in our lifetime.

And in 5-7 years when we are in the midst of a rebuild (which has no guarantee of success) and losing most nights, I (and I imagine many on here) will pine for the days when we were a “middling playoff team” that was at least competitive on most nights.

 

[g00n]

But every year is year-to-year. I think this is just sort of random happenstance and not some intentional potential inflection point where if certain things don't go to plan that they'll go in a significantly different direction. The objectives will remain the same and that's maintaining a puncher's chance without too much tolerance for risk or significant investment in unknown quantities. The majority of their issues are on the core group and if the core group remains off limits then churning through secondary veteran pieces amounts to a lot of window dressing. Orlov is the main exception to that rule. Hard to believe there's any viable window without him remaining in the fold. The rest? I'm not sure it amounts to much more than pretty normal turnover.

Hard to believe they'd sell at the deadline or really do much of anything drastically out of character while Ovechkin is around. I doubt they approach any given off-season in the meantime any differently than they have since 2008 or so. Maybe they'll have some more flexibility but their M.O. is overwhelmingly likely to what they always have. Maybe they'll have some finality re: 19 to fully spend that chunk of space on more of a long-term 2C but that's only as good as the available market (particularly if they're otherwise unwilling to skimp and wait for more of an ideal fit).

Maybe if they stink and significantly miss their targets they'd be open to trading Carlson or Kuznetsov in the off-season. But even then they may have a tough time conclusively deciding that that's for the best and without risk of them getting worse. I dunno. I just don't tend to think next off-season amounts to a potentially significant turning point. More likely it's just going to remain more of the same until the wheels are clean off.

So what are we talking about here? Here's who's under contract next season:

Ovie
Backstrom (if still playing)
Kuzy
Oshie
Wilson (contract year)
Mantha (contract year)
Dowd (cheap, bargain 4C at 1.3M)
CMM
Protas
Snively
Malenstyn
Carlson
Kuemper
Lindgren

That's it. They have the goalies sewn up, only Carlson contracted among the D, at least 4 younger guys, a cheap 4C, two guys who are in contract years, and then the Ovie, Kuzy, Oshie, and maybe Nick.

What's the hard left turn you want to take that hasn't been discussed and is made impossible? Getting rid of a "core" guy?

Maybe I just haven't read enough of the novels here that speculate about roster moves to answer my own questions, but what are we dreading next season that isn't based on some opinion of a player that's disputed by one half the fanbase and taken as gospel by the other half?

 

[PlushMinus]

It was under McPhee but there was the Erat trade. I just mostly wonder whether ownership would back a plan to either sit tight at the deadline or to sell for once (should injuries hit or something). More likely I think there will be a lot of pressure put on to shake things up well before the deadline if need be or to otherwise somewhat aggressively attempt to simply reach the playoffs once again by whatever means necessary.

Put another way: at no point do I think there's going to be an assessment along the lines of whether they're a legit Cup contender or not and, consequently, what logically should follow from that to restructure in a fashion more forward-thinking if their course remains middling. They'll nickel and dime their way toward a playoff berth even if it costs them tomorrow. It's evident in how they operate day-to-day developmentally. The current process is incredibly limited in scope and ambition. And because of that if push comes to shove I think they're fully prepared to desperately go down that path to its logical conclusion. Even if their goals are in the bigger picture very, very limited it's hard to see them fully, actively, responsibly switching gears. Organizationally it would take a lot of changes, starting with a new coaching staff with a fundamentally different approach striking a better balance re: competing vs. development, immediate gratification vs. investment.

Should they continue to either struggle or remain a .500 sort of team there need to be some fundamental questions asked about the viability of the core and whether restructuring is needed. That should inform any in-season shake-ups. Maybe there's no market or appetite for something seismic with the core until the off-season but any significant moves involving futures need to take into consideration a much broader perspective. This is a core group that's beginning to fundamentally not move the needle enough in crucial areas. Whatever assets they're willing to part with need to be spent with an incredibly targeted and realistic assessment of what they have and what they're lacking and not just whatever may conveniently fit to maybe slightly improve their chances today.

Nailed it

 

[Langway]

No dread. What will be will be. I mainly don't have faith the front office is ahead of the game at all. Or else I think they'd fundamentally operate differently than they have. They will do what it takes to remain a viable playoff team and that's really all there is to it for the remainder of the Ovechkin Era. Larger questions like whether they're truly Cup level or whether they're progressing don't seem to matter much. Their perspective has been so narrowed for so long that it's hard to believe it can remain sustainably viable. At some point their lack of developing secondary strengths and sort of loss of the larger plot will cost them. And much of it will have been avoidable.

It's their approach to improvement and development that I find most problematic to the point it's hard to put too much faith in the potential for widespread personnel changes. Would they get back what they deem full value for certain core players like 74/92? Full value that promises to not risk a step back next season? The framework within which they seem to make their decisions overwhelmingly lends itself to keeping a tight grip on the status quo. And so it's hard to expect a significant deviation, even if greater flexibility theoretically may allow for it. And then MacLellan can and has done worse behind the bench than Lavi, even if he's fairly limited. lt's hard to find The Perfect Coach so I'm not sure I'd expect significant improvement there either were a change to happen there as well.

The standard in juggling an aging core is incredibly high and I think they've really not come close to doing enough to adequately maximize their strengths or compensate for weaknesses or decline.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nailed it

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No dread. What will be will be. I mainly don't have faith the front office is ahead of the game at all. Or else I think they'd fundamentally operate differently than they have.

how exactly should they be operating then?

They will do what it takes to remain a viable playoff team and that's really all there is to it for the remainder of the Ovechkin Era. Larger questions like whether they're truly Cup level or whether they're progressing don't seem to matter much. Their perspective has been so narrowed for so long that it's hard to believe it can remain sustainably viable.

explain please….what should their perspective be? And how do you know theirs?

 

[g00n]

how exactly should they be operating then?


explain please….what should their perspective be? And how do you know theirs?

I'm not sure what many of Langway's damning generalities refer to.

Regarding their overall goal and philosophy that drives "the plan", imo it's just cynical to say they don't give a shit about winning the Cup. The players clearly do. We can safely assume just about everyone in the organization does, including Ted. He may have ridden the "just get in and keep the playoff money flowing" gravy train during the McPhee era but that changed, and look what happened...in a season much like this one.

So I'm not going to jump on the derm and glerm bandwagon until the wheels on the existing bandwagon actually fall off.

 

[Langway]

how exactly should they be operating then?

More responsibly vis-a-vis player development and self-assessment. It's the only way to get out in front of some of the inevitabilities. 8 isn't going to carry the mail each and every year. Player development has been something of a long-standing issue. Just how hopelessly dumb are we to believe some players are? How many for how long over how many coaches? It begs credulity organizationally given the frequency of those issues. The blending/refining of skills and overall development aren't there at a high enough level nor are they very adept at identifying players more naturally gifted in that regard. What they do identify is raw talent...only less so lately and not to the point where crucial refinement hasn't been necessary to even be somewhat effective. Too many diminishing results.

They've had just enough heavy-lifters at key positions to crank it up and survive. Minus 19 I think we may start to see that the center position may not cut it. On paper for how they want to play as a team it's pretty limited. They don't really have a shutdown guy nor someone that consistently makes players around them better offensively. Just not enough two-way consistency and reliability.

It's not even about McMichael. It's just the overall approach is so limited, generic and defensive-minded that a lot of offensive fundamentals get glossed over. I can only judge based on results and actions but that's my outward sense. Maybe they keep it rolling and their style remains viable. But there also seem to be increasing athletic limitations that are hard to chalk up to effort or focus. It's at this stage where flipping the proverbial switch may not happen. It no longer simply be a question of will. IMO the center position, Oshie and probably Carlson are the areas where I primarily wonder if they just don't have it to the capacity needed. With absolute best behavior maybe it's a playoff team still but we've also probably seen enough that it's likely not much more.

 

[g00n]

More responsibly vis-a-vis player development and self-assessment. It's the only way to get out in front of some of the inevitabilities. 8 isn't going to carry the mail each and every year. Player development has been something of a long-standing issue. Just how hopelessly dumb are we to believe some players are? How many for how long over how many coaches? It begs credulity organizationally given the frequency of those issues. The blending/refining of skills and overall development aren't there at a high enough level nor are they very adept at identifying players more naturally gifted in that regard. What they do identify is raw talent...only less so lately and not to the point where crucial refinement hasn't been necessary to even be somewhat effective. Too many diminishing results.

Meaning what, specifically? "Play CMM"?

They've had just enough heavy-lifters at key positions to crank it up and survive. Minus 19 I think we may start to see that the center position may not cut it. On paper for how they want to play as a team it's pretty limited. They don't really have a shutdown guy nor someone that consistently makes players around them better offensively. Just not enough two-way consistency and reliability.

So Play CMM?

It's not even about McMichael. It's just the overall approach is so limited, generic and defensive-minded that a lot of offensive fundamentals get glossed over. I can only judge based on results and actions but that's my outward sense. Maybe they keep it rolling and their style remains viable. But there also seem to be increasing athletic limitations that are hard to chalk up to effort or focus. It's at this stage where flipping the proverbial switch may not happen. It no longer simply be a question of will. IMO the center position, Oshie and probably Carlson are the areas where I primarily wonder if they just don't have it to the capacity needed. With absolute best behavior maybe it's a playoff team still but we've also probably seen enough that it's likely not much more.

So don't play CMM?

Seriously though, I think most of us agree on Carlson. Oshie is a 50/50 player with some seeing his upside and others panicking over his contract and injuries. The center position is thrown into chaos because of NB, Kuzy seemingly regressing despite cherrypicked fancy stats, Strome having less of an impact than desired, Eller looming over us like the sword of Damocles, and CMM unable to crack the lineup.

Anything else? Seems like we want to trade the overpaid, overrated defender and we need another center who's either a dynamic offensive threat or a 2-way stalwart....I'm not sure from the horoscope language above.

 

[traparatus]

And in 5-7 years when we are in the midst of a rebuild (which has no guarantee of success) and losing most nights, I (and I imagine many on here) will pine for the days when we were a “middling playoff team” that was at least competitive on most nights.

Just to play devil's advocate. Consider, for example, Red Wings. If you were to ask their fan base how they feel about the stretch of time between 2013 and 2019, they will overwhelmingly respond that it was a colossal and tedious waste of time. It's so bad that Ken Holland, who achieved so much at the helm of this franchise, is regarded with mixed feelings at best.

Personally, I've never found much joy in seen the team stuck in the mushy middle.

 

[Brian23]

I do not understand why it is just seemingly accepted that this team is going to just fall off a cliff and be bad as soon as Ovi and that core fall off, or that we should just accept and not complain if the plan is just to ride these guys till it's over. It's not doom and gloom to expect the front office to not only have a vision to keep the team competitive now but to be setting them up to remain competitive at all times. You're not more of a fan because you wish to ignore complaints or wish to not hear about them.

Like, this is not a mutually exclusive scenario.

 

[PlushMinus]

View attachment 600629

Since nobody here has access to management or inside information, then everything here is opinion and speculation. On that basis I agree with Langway's opinion, so yes, I'm "sure" I agree with his post.

 

[traparatus]

More responsibly vis-a-vis player development and self-assessment. It's the only way to get out in front of some of the inevitabilities. 8 isn't going to carry the mail each and every year. Player development has been something of a long-standing issue. Just how hopelessly dumb are we to believe some players are? How many for how long over how many coaches? It begs credulity organizationally given the frequency of those issues. The blending/refining of skills and overall development aren't there at a high enough level nor are they very adept at identifying players more naturally gifted in that regard. What they do identify is raw talent...only less so lately and not to the point where crucial refinement hasn't been necessary to even be somewhat effective. Too many diminishing results.

They've had just enough heavy-lifters at key positions to crank it up and survive. Minus 19 I think we may start to see that the center position may not cut it. On paper for how they want to play as a team it's pretty limited. They don't really have a shutdown guy nor someone that consistently makes players around them better offensively. Just not enough two-way consistency and reliability.

It's not even about McMichael. It's just the overall approach is so limited, generic and defensive-minded that a lot of offensive fundamentals get glossed over. I can only judge based on results and actions but that's my outward sense. Maybe they keep it rolling and their style remains viable. But there also seem to be increasing athletic limitations that are hard to chalk up to effort or focus. It's at this stage where flipping the proverbial switch may not happen. It no longer simply be a question of will. IMO the center position, Oshie and probably Carlson are the areas where I primarily wonder if they just don't have it to the capacity needed. With absolute best behavior maybe it's a playoff team still but we've also probably seen enough that it's likely not much more.

It's a difficult situation. How much can a team achieve without an elite center, preferably backed up by another elite center? Most pundits say, not much at all.

Then there is the issue of accountability, drive and attention to detail. For example, Carlson has been abysmal for the last number of playoffs. He was dreadful last year. After a long offseason to self reflect and hopefully better himself, he showed up this year in full slug mode. Coaching staff has no response to it. There are no consequences. This team doesn't have anywhere near the talent level to be able to mask this.

 

[HTFN]

Meaning what, specifically? "Play CMM"?



So Play CMM?



So don't play CMM?

Seriously though, I think most of us agree on Carlson. Oshie is a 50/50 player with some seeing his upside and others panicking over his contract and injuries. The center position is thrown into chaos because of NB, Kuzy seemingly regressing despite cherrypicked fancy stats, Strome having less of an impact than desired, Eller looming over us like the sword of Damocles, and CMM unable to crack the lineup.

Anything else? Seems like we want to trade the overpaid, overrated defender and we need another center who's either a dynamic offensive threat or a 2-way stalwart....I'm not sure from the horoscope language above.

How many Stephensons and Siegenthalers should we write off as fluke occurrences before we just admit that the organization isn't making a dedicated effort to developing younger players under the guise of "win now" and it's potentially handicapping their ability to keep the window open?

The Capitals basically have two kinds of castoffs at this point: traded younger players that flourish elsewhere, and overcooked prospects and long toothed veterans that tend to call Washington their last true kick at the can. They don't get ahead of what's happening to them, they cross fingers and hope it won't be that bad or something can be salvaged. They seem too afraid of losing (in trades and games) to do anything required to win big and it's becoming a regular occurrence for the organization to be about a year behind on solving its problems.

That applies to youth development, that applies to their pro scouting/trade acquisitions, it's entrenched in the organizational approach right now from top to bottom down to player deployment and TOI. This team and coach would rather a middle six of players you can "play not to lose" with and are home to increasingly few players you can win with on their own merit now that Ovechkin and co. may not be able to shoulder that burden (at 37, go figure, but again they just keep hoping things will be okay rather than being proactive).

 

[Brian23]

They seem too afraid of losing (in trades and games) to do anything required to win big

And there one big move recently sent out, in my opinion, the better player and a first for Mantha because the coach refused to use him.

 

[g00n]

How many Stephensons and Siegenthalers should we write off as fluke occurrences before we just admit that the organization isn't making a dedicated effort to developing younger players under the guise of "win now" and it's potentially handicapping their ability to keep the window open?

The Capitals basically have two kinds of castoffs at this point: traded younger players that flourish elsewhere, and overcooked prospects and long toothed veterans that tend to call Washington their last true kick at the can. They don't get ahead of what's happening to them, they cross fingers and hope it won't be that bad or something can be salvaged. They seem too afraid of losing (in trades and games) to do anything required to win big and it's becoming a regular occurrence for the organization to be about a year behind on solving its problems.

That applies to youth development, that applies to their pro scouting/trade acquisitions, it's entrenched in the organizational approach right now from top to bottom down to player deployment and TOI. This team and coach would rather a middle six of players you can "play not to lose" with and are home to increasingly few players you can win with on their own merit now that Ovechkin and co. may not be able to shoulder that burden (at 37, go figure, but again they just keep hoping things will be okay rather than being proactive).

So it's all the same argument: play the young guys