Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Calicaps]

WRT Ovie, it's terrible news. You have to have sympathy for him and his family and blow the politics out your ass.

Some rando was complaining about Ovie leaving the team. Ovie stopped by the locker room to deliver a speech when he could've been on a plane. Who knows if doing that caused him to not be at his father's bedside. I'm not sure if he made it. But it was a huge gesture. And as for surrendering the "C", maybe his team didn't want him to do that.

There's also the chance that this adversity gives Ovie and the team something to rally around. Some guys pour themselves into their work when something like this happens. We don't know how they're going to respond yet. So it's too early to be saying they're done.

On another topic, I'm a little tired of all this fear of the Bruins. Last season it was the same thing with Florida, and if not for a few boneheaded plays (and players) in the last few games we could've won that round.

Plus, we might end up facing Carolina (or even NJ), and though they won the latest matchup we lacked several key pieces but still kept it close.

I'm not a fatalist when it comes to this team. Anything can happen in the NHL playoffs. It's a different season. That's why you just get in and start over.

And that's why I'm still most concerned about Eller and Carlson, who have been dismal in the postseason.

Totally agree about the potential opponents; nobody's unbeatable, and when the Caps were playing their best a couple of months ago, they could beat anyone. But our core is struggling or straight injured, and I guess I'm increasingly thinking they just need a break. Even with the first round exits, they've played a ton of hockey for a ton of years, and they aren't kids anymore. This might be the right time to take that break and refresh.

 

[Calicaps]

Not my personality to sit and stew over things I can’t control. When they’re eliminated from the playoff chase, I’ll be bummed….until then, I refuse to stew in misery.

Not trying to be gloomy, but this year, with the way things have gone, I think I'd rather they decide for themselves not to power through and risk being eliminated despite putting in all the energy and effort and instead, choose to not. I know that's very un-pro-sports, but I just think this year has been shitty for them, and it's really no one's fault.

 

[g00n]

Well, one's a 22 year old first round pick doing very well in Hershey after having a solid/good first year the prior year. The other is a defender who's had over a decade of opportunities, bounced around to a variety of teams, and has always been an AHL/minor league player. You're being intentionally obtuse if you're trying to compare them.

Beyond that, if Mcllrath had been on the team the entire year over Irwin, I wouldn't have cared anymore then I care about Irwin constantly getting games. It's just extremely stupid when you've got an actual prospect on the roster who could use game time and you're in the hunt of a playoff race. Rewarding someone at that point is something the teams who're cruising to the playoffs do. It's a joke.

Or, they're trying to see what this guy can do as a Capital before they have to start shuffling pieces around...maybe including him.

eh?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not trying to be gloomy, but this year, with the way things have gone, I think I'd rather they decide for themselves not to power through and risk being eliminated despite putting in all the energy and effort and instead, choose to not. I know that's very un-pro-sports, but I just think this year has been shitty for them, and it's really no one's fault.

As the year has progressed, you could see the writing on the wall. Too many big names out hurt/leave or just MIA on ice.

I think GMBM would have made moves already in a somewhat normal season, were it not for everything piling up against them that they cannot control.

I think he’s now in wait and see mode….if the boys can muster a rally, I think we see some late moves, more than likely…..they’ll peter out and he’ll trim Eller and maybe 1-2 more…

 

[g00n]

Some maybes and what-ifs are much more likely than others. I’m of the opinion that the wise play is to sacrifice the minuscule chance they make a run this year so that they can increase their chances for the following years.

What are you basing this on?

The same people who constantly slag the front office for shitty asset management are demanding more trades and assets rather than pushing for the playoffs.

I don't see any difference in the amount of gambling and "faith" going on here.

The 15% chance you refer to includes both the 7th & 8th place finishers. Wherever the Caps finish, they cannot be both 7th and 8th. In theory then either team has half of 15 percent, or 7.5 percent chance of making the finals. A little better than a one-in-fourteen chance. Not impossible, but most would describe those odds as slim. And that's just for getting to the Finals.

Let's see how the team does tonight. FLA has been erratic and the Caps have shown that, on occasion, they can play a dominating style.

This is a pointless distinction. The fact is the WC spots are not useless. It doesn't matter if you say 7th has 12% chance vs 15% aggregate. The point is the same. And right now we don't know which spot they'll land in.

I don't see anyone here saying "we need the 7th not the 8th spot because there's a big % difference". I see people saying "we're in a playoff spot but we're probably going to lose it and then if we don't we'll lose in the first round."

And again, the chance for the 8th spot is non-zero, while the top couple of seeds aren't even coin flip....they're half that. They don't give up because success isn't guaranteed.

 

[HTFN]

some of you seem like you'd argue against punting from your own 30

 

[g00n]

some of you seem like you'd argue against punting from your own 30

I'm just glad the team and management aren't as easily dissuaded as a lot of this team's "fans".

 

[HTFN]

I'm just glad the team and management aren't as easily dissuaded as a lot of this team's "fans".

and you decided to put that in quotes because you... don't think Calicaps is a true fan?

 

[g00n]

and you decided to put that in quotes because you... don't think Calicaps is a true fan?

She has not been "easily dissuaded."

 

[Misery74]

Not trying to be gloomy, but this year, with the way things have gone, I think I'd rather they decide for themselves not to power through and risk being eliminated despite putting in all the energy and effort and instead, choose to not. I know that's very un-pro-sports, but I just think this year has been shitty for them, and it's really no one's fault.

As the year has progressed, you could see the writing on the wall. Too many big names out hurt/leave or just MIA on ice.

I think GMBM would have made moves already in a somewhat normal season, were it not for everything piling up against them that they cannot control.

I think he’s now in wait and see mode….if the boys can muster a rally, I think we see some late moves, more than likely…..they’ll peter out and he’ll trim Eller and maybe 1-2 more…

There are no moves to be made. We are over the cap, and only spared due to LTIR. The days of trading players is largely over, save the trade deadline.

The only fix has to come from within. That is why it is now, as it was last year, we need to see what we have in this system that can contribute. If that’s a 30 year old McIlrath, we are f***ed.

 

[g00n]

The 15% chance you refer to includes both the 7th & 8th place finishers. Wherever the Caps finish, they cannot be both 7th and 8th. In theory then either team has half of 15 percent, or 7.5 percent chance of making the finals. A little better than a one-in-fourteen chance. Not impossible, but most would describe those odds as slim. And that's just for getting to the Finals.

Let's see how the team does tonight. FLA has been erratic and the Caps have shown that, on occasion, they can play a dominating style.

Also, the chances of making the finals for 5th and 6th seeds has been no better than 8th seed.

That means the 3rd place finisher in each division should pack it in? No sense in trying?

Either finish top 4 and have a 15% or 25% chance at the finals, or tank and let someone else take the last 4 playoff spots?

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

I cannot wait until Laviolette is gone. Continue to bench our top D prospect in Alexeyev for no reason. Call up a journeyman tough guy in McIlrath to play over him as a 'reward' - as if playing Irwin over AA was not bad enough. Borderline criminal. Has has to go. It's the same bullshit he did with McMichael, but at least we could send down CMM eventually and his lack of minutes were partially justified. AA has been very solid when played, he should be playing every game.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Also, the chances of making the finals for 5th and 6th seeds has been no better than 8th seed.

That means the 3rd place finisher in each division should pack it in? No sense in trying?

Either finish top 4 and have a 15% or 25% chance at the finals, or tank and let someone else take the last 4 playoff spots?

Although the data you originally cited do cover a decent stretch of time (17 years), there are many factors that affect how one reads/interprets them. I could point out that the NHL's wacky seeding process will often mean that a 7th seed has more points (and is therefore arguably a better team) than the 5&6th place teams, since crappy divisions are guaranteed at least 3 of the top 6 seeded teams in conference playoffs. And we know that teams that gel or peak at the right time are often better playoff performers ... witness the lack of success of the Caps and most other teams during their President's Trophy-winning seasons.

I and many others (based on what's been written here) are looking at this season and saying that, compared to other times when this team may have been in or close to a playoff spot, this year is one when the medium-term (2-5 year) return could be greater if they behave somewhat differently - get value for pending UFAs they do not expect to resign by dealing them to contenders, move some players who do not fit into those mid-term plans if they can get a decent return, and begin the process of regrouping for 2023-24.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I know everything is Lavi's fault but more insight into how far the Caps are away from contending this year. The Athletic’s hockey staff looked at Cup champions from the last decade and created the "recipe" for making a champion. Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson, and Nick Jensen are the only players who are above average relative to their respective positions on the average Cup winner. Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Oshie, Wilson, and Backstrom all fail to provide the requisite value for their positions in order to contend for the Cup.

No 6th D deadline acquisition is fixing what ails this team, which is why I can't get worked up over a guy like Sheary playing over Snively or McIlrath getting a sweater for one night. If the stars were carrying their weight and the depth was letting them down then sure let's talk but the complete lack of production from their top end guys makes those arguments meaningless in the grand scheme. Sell, sell, sell.

Red X: Falls below the range entirely

Grey checkmark: Passable, but below the average champion

Black checkmark: Above average relative to the average Cup winner

Gold checkmark: Exceeds the range entirely

 

[g00n]

Although the data you originally cited do cover a decent stretch of time (17 years), there are many factors that affect how one reads/interprets them. I could point out that the NHL's wacky seeding process will often mean that a 7th seed has more points (and is therefore arguably a better team) than the 5&6th place teams, since crappy divisions are guaranteed at least 3 of the top 6 seeded teams in conference playoffs. And we know that teams that gel or peak at the right time are often better playoff performers ... witness the lack of success of the Caps and most other teams during their President's Trophy-winning seasons.

I and many others (based on what's been written here) are looking at this season and saying that, compared to other times when this team may have been in or close to a playoff spot, this year is one when the medium-term (2-5 year) return could be greater if they behave somewhat differently - get value for pending UFAs they do not expect to resign by dealing them to contenders, move some players who do not fit into those mid-term plans if they can get a decent return, and begin the process of regrouping for 2023-24.

We all understand what people are saying. We just disagree with it.

You don't punt on 2nd or 3rd down because you think it'll get you better field position for the next defensive series. You try to make the next 1st down and then go from there.

It's not 4th down yet.

Will you feel the same way if they beat FLA and CAR in their next 2 games?

 

[Jags]

Also, the chances of making the finals for 5th and 6th seeds has been no better than 8th seed.

That means the 3rd place finisher in each division should pack it in? No sense in trying?

Either finish top 4 and have a 15% or 25% chance at the finals, or tank and let someone else take the last 4 playoff spots?

We wouldn't be the 8th seed with a 15% chance at the finals. We don't have that great a chance at being the 8th seed to begin with, and if we manage it at all, it might be more because of other teams' failures than our successes.

Not all 8-seeds are made equally. Our best defenseman's got one ear, our marquee center's got one hip, a dude in the wings has one eye, our phenom center's playing like a bipolar off his meds, we've got one $6m wing who hasn't given 100% since he was 13, another $6m wing who has had more concussions than the entire AFC West, a $5m wing who just went directly from a busted knee to a busted something else, at least two defensemen on the roster you wouldn't start unless you lost a bet, and a coaching staff who used to coach a hockey team but now poorly run a M*A*S*H unit.

And you're talking about our chances of making the finals? Check your math.

 

[g00n]

We wouldn't be the 8th seed with a 15% chance at the finals. We don't have that great a chance at being the 8th seed to begin with, and if we manage it at all, it might be more because of other teams' failures than our successes.

Not all 8-seeds are made equally. Our best defenseman's got one ear, our marquee center's got one hip, a dude in the wings has one eye, our phenom center's playing like a bipolar off his meds, we've got one $6m wing who hasn't given 100% since he was 13, another $6m wing who has had more concussions than the entire AFC West, a $5m wing who just went directly from a busted knee to a busted something else, at least two defensemen on the roster you wouldn't start unless you lost a bet, and a coaching staff who used to coach a hockey team but now poorly run a M*A*S*H unit.

And you're talking about our chances of making the finals? Check your math.

Check yours and read what I wrote again.

3% is the same for 5, 6, and 8th seed. Giving up unless top 4? 25% chance at the top or bust?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Which brave soul among you dare take 37 seconds and make today’s GDT?

 

[hb13xchamps]

Friedman had a small tidbit in his 32 thoughts today that said Caps are trying to resign Orlov

 

[Jags]

Check yours and read what I wrote again.

3% is the same for 5, 6, and 8th seed. Giving up unless top 4? 25% chance at the top or bust?

Okay, I was kidding, but sure, I'll play along...

We've got a team being held together with duct tape and silly putty. Do you have a snazzy graph that shows the Finals percentage of teams playing sub-.500 hockey? Do they make one that shows how many of those plucky Finals teams dealt with the litany of issues we have going on right now? Has a team with as many games lost to injury as we've had made the Finals?

This argument feels kinda like, "Well yeah, we're pretty much as decimated as teams get, but if you just ignore all of that, LOOK! Over the last 17 years, blah blah blah!"

"Sure, my girlfriend just got struck by lightning, but statistics say she's still got a 14% chance of winning that beauty pageant!" Like she's still on fire a little and she can't remember her name and you're talking about her chances in the talent portion. Totally covered in soot and smells like burnt hair and you're having her fitted for a tiara.

Shit, I'm still accidentally kidding. I'm finding it really hard to respond seriously to discussions of our chances at making the Finals this year. I can't explain it. Please help me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I know everything is Lavi's fault but more insight into how far the Caps are away from contending this year. The Athletic’s hockey staff looked at Cup champions from the last decade and created the "recipe" for making a champion. Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson, and Nick Jensen are the only players who are above average relative to their respective positions on the average Cup winner. Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Oshie, Wilson, and Backstrom all fail to provide the requisite value for their positions in order to contend for the Cup.

No 6th D deadline acquisition is fixing what ails this team, which is why I can't get worked up over a guy like Sheary playing over Snively or McIlrath getting a sweater for one night. If the stars were carrying their weight and the depth was letting them down then sure let's talk but the complete lack of production from their top end guys makes those arguments meaningless in the grand scheme. Sell, sell, sell.



View attachment 651292

Nope, “Lavi”….

 

[twabby]

What are you basing this on?

The same people who constantly slag the front office for shitty asset management are demanding more trades and assets rather than pushing for the playoffs.

I don't see any difference in the amount of gambling and "faith" going on here.

I'm basing this on what I think.

For instance, Dom at the Athletic pegs Washington at a < 1% chance of the Cup at this point:

It's not technically zero, but it's tiny. Insignificant.

How can the team possibly pass on acquiring a whole bunch of valuable assets available to them at the TDL for this < 1% chance of a Cup?

Washington is in a unique position as a seller this TDL. Not only do they have a bunch of pretty good rentals available, but they're all cheap. In a capped out league guys like Gustafsson, TVR, Hathaway, Sheary, and Johansson suddenly look pretty valuable, especially if retention is an option. That's not to mention the two big pieces in Orlov and Jensen who might combined return 2 first round draft picks.

Obviously they can't and shouldn't sell everyone. Some of these guys they should re-sign. Mojo and Jensen come to mind for me. But if any UFAs aren't likely to re-sign at a palatable number it's time to sell even if it means punting on this year's team.

They'll probably need assets to dump contracts in the offseason. They'll need assets to acquire a center. They'll need assets to acquire a top 6 wing. Right now they have, what, their 2023 and 2024 first round picks and Connor McMichael as their biggest trade chips in the offseason? That won't get it done. Not if they want an impact talent.

I'd rather just take that < 1% this year and bring it all the way to 0% so that maybe next year's odds can be increased quite substantially.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Isn’t the underlying theme “don’t give up early”, not that we’re going to suddenly get hot and make the Finals?!! Lol….

We have too many injuries and slackers for that to happen….but the playoffs are not lost yet.

There are no guarantees that folding early gets you a better next hand.

 

[g00n]

Okay, I was kidding, but sure, I'll play along...

We've got a team being held together with duct tape and silly putty. Do you have a snazzy graph that shows the Finals percentage of teams playing sub-.500 hockey? Do they make one that shows how many of those plucky Finals teams dealt with the litany of issues we have going on right now? Has a team with as many games lost to injury as we've had made the Finals?

This argument feels kinda like, "Well yeah, we're pretty much as decimated as teams get, but if you just ignore all of that, LOOK! Over the last 17 years, blah blah blah!"

"Sure, my girlfriend just got struck by lightning, but statistics say she's still got a 14% chance of winning that beauty pageant!" Like she's still on fire a little and she can't remember her name and you're talking about her chances in the talent portion. Totally covered in soot and smells like burnt hair and you're having her fitted for a tiara.

Shit, I'm still accidentally kidding. I'm finding it really hard to respond seriously to discussions of our chances at making the Finals this year. I can't explain it. Please help me.

I stated the point already.

We're currently in a playoff spot.
There are 2 weeks until the TDL.
We have some key games coming up.
We have LTIR guys who may return and factor into the equation.
Other teams can surge or falter.
Getting into the playoffs isn't a guarantee of anything either way, and we shouldn't poo-poo sliding into a WC spot since everyone has a chance.

What I see is mostly people who previously wanted to blow it all up and get rid of "old and slow" seizing on the opportunity to push for giving up and selling before any responsible NHL team would do so.

The people being paid to do this for a living aren't going to make that move until they have to.

You can "joke" about it all you want. I'm not getting bent out of shape over this team or any particular roster fantasies.

 

[Jags]

Isn’t the underlying theme “don’t give up early”, not that we’re going to suddenly get hot and make the Finals?!! Lol….

We have too many injuries and slackers for that to happen….but the playoffs are not lost yet.

There are no guarantees that folding early gets you a better next hand.

I'm with you, but I don't think it's giving up to be realistic about what's going on so we make wise decisions until the roster freeze.

I'm all for hoping that we do find our way to having an actual 15% chance at the finals, but I don't want us acting like all-in buyers on twabby's <1% chance or anyone's graph designed to get degenerate gamblers to bet their socks on dodgy odds.

And the "Anything can happen, it's not over yet, and you're a quitter and not a fan if you think otherwise" argument makes it even harder to swallow.