Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[HTFN]

Oh lookey….The White Gnight shows up…..I think he’s a good coach as he has proven.
Change my mind.

Every coach earns critique…..not necessarily a witch hunt for their job (and I have plenty of issues with some of his choices)…

You can be good and not perfect. You can be good and not right. You can make the best of what you have to the best of your abilities and still not maximize the roster you've been given. There is no reason these things can't all be true, because they are right now.

You can also push 20 years in the league and maybe become attached to a naturally decaying philosophy without adequate checks and balances, and that's nobody's fault so much as it's just a natural way of life.

I thought the Kyle Turris Nashville tweet was very interesting as it relates to his view of "balance" in recent times and we've got plenty of our own ammunition since then. He's not right for them. It doesn't make him an idiot but it amplifies the choices that go against what the team probably needs the most

EDIT: In fact I'd wager the reason it's frustrating and not a hilarious, grim joke to most of us is because he's often smart and capable and not an oaf falling backwards into success. A little less... I don't want to say ego because I don't know but whatever is holding him back from what still seem like common sense decisions stand out because they're almost the only standouts.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean, to be honest, do we care what Lavi wants? Coaches are well paid to do a job, and that job is to either help a team win a championship, or turnaround a team that is doing poorly and over a number of seasons make them better - ideally with a view towards winning a championship.

I think it's fair to say Lavi hasn't done that.

Don't try from shit to make gold! - Author: Deyth Banger

You can be good and not perfect. You can be good and not right. You can make the best of what you have to the best of your abilities and still not maximize the roster you've been given. There is no reason these things can't all be true, because they are right now.

You can also push 20 years in the league and maybe become attached to a naturally decaying philosophy without adequate checks and balances, and that's nobody's fault so much as it's just a natural way of life.

I thought the Kyle Turris Nashville tweet was very interesting as it relates to his view of "balance" in recent times and we've got plenty of our own ammunition since then. He's not right for them. It doesn't make him an idiot but it amplifies the choices that go against what the team probably needs the most

Like I said, I have plenty of issues with some choices he’s made…..but a coaching change isn’t turning this around…..it’s so much deeper.

 

[RedRocking]

I mean, to be honest, do we care what Lavi wants? Coaches are well paid to do a job, and that job is to either help a team win a championship, or turnaround a team that is doing poorly and over a number of seasons make them better - ideally with a view towards winning a championship.

I think it's fair to say Lavi hasn't done that.

It matters because if you want him gone, then Lavi opting to go elsewhere would be a simple, good result, no? That’s all.

He’s a lame duck coach, and they have no extension in place - maybe talks aren’t going well for either side. See Trotz, Barry.

 

[Misery74]

If the season is lost already, what’s the point? They’d have to compensate a fired Lavi and increase Nelson’s salary for a few months. Plus any additional assistant coaches they let go and/or hire on an interm basis. Plus, they would most likely do an extensive search and interview process and might not view Nelson as the best replacement for Lavi.

Would be a lot easier to allow Lavi walk away this offseason with any assistants whose contract is up. I’m sure McCarthy will just retire as he was going that route after Nashville let him go.

He would be the interim. Then, in the offseason, do your search.

If the seasons lost, you have nothing to lose.

 

[Raikkonen]

I said early on this season….not the worst year to take a small step back, maybe get lucky in the lottery, get a quick sure fire draftee….then retool with major moves this off-season. GMBM should be the busiest guy in the league…..and finding Lavi‘s replacement can be part of it then.

but we are totally going to be 9th in the end ffs

 

[Jags]

Like I said, I have plenty of issues with some choices he’s made…..but a coaching change isn’t turning this around…..it’s so much deeper.

This. Firing Lavi achieves nothing the same way making stupid all-in trades right now would be a bad idea. We're very injured, our best player might be gone a while, we can't score, our special teams units are crap, we've found almost zero chemistry in the lineup this year... We're not one or two players or one or two coaches away from a meaningful chance at a Cup.

Going all-in just to make the playoffs with little chance of doing anything once we get there just doesn't make sense. The team's been through a ton of shit this year, players and coaches alike. Let them finish it out together. Kicking the tires on an interim coach isn't enough reason to rock the boat that hard.

If we're determined to part ways with Laviolette, it'll be happening soon enough regardless. And if they're on the fence about him, how he handles the tough couple months ahead and how the locker room feels about him throughout would be huge determining factors.

I personally hope we clean house as far as coaches go this year, but there's no reason to do it now.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Finishing 9th or 10th is much worse than finishing last. Let’s sell soon and drop some more in the standings.

 

[Raikkonen]

Gavrikov/Orlov-Carlson
Orlov/Gavrikov-Jensen
Fehervary-TVR

pair of good goalies

and Strome-Backstrom-Kuzy-Dowd
looks like a solid foundation backbone for a team

forwards need to get their shit together, and maybe spring entertainment is still possible

and all of this foundation could be kept for next season realistically

if only 19 could stay healthy and 92 could stay focused

 

[Raikkonen]

gus is too weak on defensive side
will ask for a lot to resign
can bring a lot at deadline

I'd trade him

although you can keep him for playoffs and then release, less toxic way, and we still need another d if playoff position isn't lost till deadline

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Gavrikov/Orlov-Carlson
Orlov/Gavrikov-Jensen
Fehervary-TVR

pair of good goalies

and Strome-Backstrom-Kuzy-Dowd
looks like a solid foundation backbone for a team

forwards need to get their shit together, and maybe spring entertainment is still possible

and all of this foundation could be kept for next season realistically

if only 19 could stay healthy and 92 could stay focused

Kuzy is out of chances IMO. Need to move on from him.

 

[Raikkonen]

Kuzy is out of chances IMO. Need to move on from him.

yet he could be the most effective C in playoffs if they get there (after dowd obviously)

he's undefperforming but not out of chances yet because trading him is not easy after all

 

[Calicaps]

Honestly, Mikhail's death (RIP) and Ovi's associated departure is just the final straw for this cursed season. I almost wish December hadn't happened so there'd be absolutely no doubt. And I'm only upset about it because Ovi is losing things that matter to him. His father first and foremost, but also progress toward life goals.

IMO Lavi has done pretty damn well during his tenure here, given Covid, the injuries, etc. I'm much more interested in replacing some of his subordinates, especially Fosythe and Murray, though if Lavi goes I won't be deeply bothered--assuming they hire well.

Every UFA not named Orlov (and maybe Jensen?) should be for sale starting now. I'd consider keeping Gus too depending on price. Add in Kuz and Mantha (and maybe Oshie ) and that's a lot of salary going out. Get what you can in trade. Get better draft position. Then make hay in the summer.

This should not be a firesale for picks and prospects with the goal of developing a new young core, but rather for cap space and assets to go shopping with later for younger, but established, players.

Those wanting 19 gone can forget it. Ted won't do it. He's made clear that he wants Ovi and Backstrom both to retire as Caps, and that's his right. I personally think Nick can still be valuable to the team. He said recently that he's still working on getting his timing back--and his passing is still great--so if he finds his groove, who knows? He's just under .5ppg this season as it is. An offseason to train rather than rehab should help. Will he ever truly "earn" his paycheck? Probably no. But we all knew his salary was backdated anyway.

Wilson is just an unknowable at this point. Can he find his game? Hopefully he'll heal up in the next few weeks and have a full offseason to train and come back more like himself. But really, it's all TBD, and he can't (and shouldn't) be traded until we know more.

Same with 74 to some extent. His injury isn't directly performance-related, but he's obviously not recovered yet and who knows what's really going on. That said, a long break and time to strengthen and reset could be just what he needs to better handle the grind going forward.

And lastly, Ovechkin. I'm convinced the situation with his father has been dragging him down these past few weeks. Let him grieve without the pressure of a playoff race. Start fresh next year in pursuit of 895 and a second championship.

 

[PlushMinus]

It matters because if you want him gone, then Lavi opting to go elsewhere would be a simple, good result, no? That’s all.

He’s a lame duck coach, and they have no extension in place - maybe talks aren’t going well for either side. See Trotz, Barry.

Yes but it matter more to me that Caps mgmt and ownership are the ones who make the decision (to either fire him or not renew him). Because at least that tells me they recognise there are problems and they are trying to remedy those problems.

Edit: as somebody else said, Lavi has had challenges with injury etc this season, so it's not entirely his fault. But coaches ARE supposed to motivate players / teams so they give their best effort every game and we've seen plenty of inconsistency this season when it comes to effort levels.

I'd also like to see him land with another team so we can see what kind of success / failure he has with the new team and if he sticks with the vets and doesn't play young prospects / rookies etc. (Then we can all say "look I told you so! There's a pattern here! He really is a doofus!)"

 

[RedRocking]

Yes but it matter more to me that Caps mgmt and ownership are the ones who make the decision (to either fire him or not renew him). Because at least that tells me they recognise there are problems and they are trying to remedy those problems.

Edit: as somebody else said, Lavi has had challenges with injury etc this season, so it's not entirely his fault. But coaches ARE supposed to motivate players / teams so they give their best effort every game and we've seen plenty of inconsistency this season when it comes to effort levels.

I'd also like to see him land with another team so we can see what kind of success / failure he has with the new team and if he sticks with the vets and doesn't play young prospects / rookies etc. (Then we can all say "look I told you so! There's a pattern here! He really is a doofus!)"

Well I think many here would tell you that Lavi already had a reputation for favoring vets and burying kids from previous stops like Nashville. That narrative was established early after hearing from disgruntled Preds fans (stunting Fiala’s offensive talents being the best example). So, imo, there’s been a bit of confirmation bias for that narrative, by some, from the minute Lavi came to DC.

Anyways, I really don’t care what people do after they leave the org. I think Lavi is a solid coach and would wish him well on his next stop. As you said, he’s had to deal with an insane amount of injuries - from the jump there was the whole Lundqvist heart calamity, then COVID, Backy’s whole deal, etc… I think his ability to keep the team afloat, during periods where half the team was out, speaks to the viability of his system and coaching acumen.

However, sometimes things just don’t work out, and it’s best to move on. The team seems cursed this year, and the roster is seriously flawed. And yea - Lavi isn’t really the guy you bring in to develop prospects. So, it could be refreshing to get a new staff in the offseason, and see what a new voice can do with this bunch. Mostly, though, the whole org has to have a better long term plan (not just 895), and make some serious changes to the roster this summer.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Just something to put in perspective regarding some of the Caps assets management.

Pheonix Copley 17-3-1, 2.74 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO with the Kings
Vitek Vanecek 23-5-3, 2.31 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO with the Devils
Ilya Samsonov 19-6-2, 2.31 GAA, .918 SV%, 3 SO with the Leafs

Combined, 59-14-6, 2.42 GAA, .913 SV%, 6 SO

All 3 goalies are currently #1 goalies for their new teams. All 3 goalies were in the Caps organization last season and 2 were let go as free agents. All 3 goalies are having a major impact with their new teams and are part of the reason their teams are in good playoff positions right now. This is not some fluke. The Caps return value was only from Vanecek, receiving a '22 2nd round pick(Ryan Chesley) and '22 3rd round pick(Alexander Suzdalev). Those 2 picks better turn out better than projected or for 3 goalies the Caps got shit in return.

#FireScottMurray
#HeCanNotDevelopTalent

The only positive, the Caps might have the best goalie scouting for drafting and free agents in the entire NHL. I don't think in the last 2 decades I have seen another team have so many goalies make an impact at the NHL level.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

He would be the interim. Then, in the offseason, do your search.

If the seasons lost, you have nothing to lose.

We'll know by 10PM EST today.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Honestly, Mikhail's death (RIP) and Ovi's associated departure is just the final straw for this cursed season. I almost wish December hadn't happened so there'd be absolutely no doubt. And I'm only upset about it because Ovi is losing things that matter to him. His father first and foremost, but also progress toward life goals.

IMO Lavi has done pretty damn well during his tenure here, given Covid, the injuries, etc. I'm much more interested in replacing some of his subordinates, especially Fosythe and Murray, though if Lavi goes I won't be deeply bothered--assuming they hire well.

Every UFA not named Orlov (and maybe Jensen?) should be for sale starting now. I'd consider keeping Gus too depending on price. Add in Kuz and Mantha (and maybe Oshie ) and that's a lot of salary going out. Get what you can in trade. Get better draft position. Then make hay in the summer.

This should not be a firesale for picks and prospects with the goal of developing a new young core, but rather for cap space and assets to go shopping with later for younger, but established, players.

Those wanting 19 gone can forget it. Ted won't do it. He's made clear that he wants Ovi and Backstrom both to retire as Caps, and that's his right. I personally think Nick can still be valuable to the team. He said recently that he's still working on getting his timing back--and his passing is still great--so if he finds his groove, who knows? He's just under .5ppg this season as it is. An offseason to train rather than rehab should help. Will he ever truly "earn" his paycheck? Probably no. But we all knew his salary was backdated anyway.

Wilson is just an unknowable at this point. Can he find his game? Hopefully he'll heal up in the next few weeks and have a full offseason to train and come back more like himself. But really, it's all TBD, and he can't (and shouldn't) be traded until we know more.

Same with 74 to some extent. His injury isn't directly performance-related, but he's obviously not recovered yet and who knows what's really going on. That said, a long break and time to strengthen and reset could be just what he needs to better handle the grind going forward.

And lastly, Ovechkin. I'm convinced the situation with his father has been dragging him down these past few weeks. Let him grieve without the pressure of a playoff race. Start fresh next year in pursuit of 895 and a second championship

I 100 percent agree and great post! I can't imagine having any interest in anything with a personal loss like his. He can rest up, grieve, and be there for his family and come back next year. He's going to get 895 and to many of us, he already has.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

This. Firing Lavi achieves nothing the same way making stupid all-in trades right now would be a bad idea. We're very injured, our best player might be gone a while, we can't score, our special teams units are crap, we've found almost zero chemistry in the lineup this year... We're not one or two players or one or two coaches away from a meaningful chance at a Cup.

Going all-in just to make the playoffs with little chance of doing anything once we get there just doesn't make sense. The team's been through a ton of shit this year, players and coaches alike. Let them finish it out together. Kicking the tires on an interim coach isn't enough reason to rock the boat that hard.

If we're determined to part ways with Laviolette, it'll be happening soon enough regardless. And if they're on the fence about him, how he handles the tough couple months ahead and how the locker room feels about him throughout would be huge determining factors.

I personally hope we clean house as far as coaches go this year, but there's no reason to do it now.

I believe GMBM should start selling the UFAs sooner than at the day of the TDL though.

 

[trick9]

Looking at the long-term picture, we are nearly in the worst situation we could be in right now. Lots of free agents but it's going to be a tough sell for GMBM to even try and spin this towards selling for the owner. Ted is going to want Playoffs, even if it likely means getting decimated by the Bruins. Or in the worst-case they'll lose the dogfight for the last spot and still miss the Playoffs entirely.

We'll see how they navigate through this at the deadline but it's hard to see anything other than maybe adding another depth guy at the expense of another pick.

 

[g00n]

WRT Ovie, it's terrible news. You have to have sympathy for him and his family and blow the politics out your ass.

Some rando was complaining about Ovie leaving the team. Ovie stopped by the locker room to deliver a speech when he could've been on a plane. Who knows if doing that caused him to not be at his father's bedside. I'm not sure if he made it. But it was a huge gesture. And as for surrendering the "C", maybe his team didn't want him to do that.

There's also the chance that this adversity gives Ovie and the team something to rally around. Some guys pour themselves into their work when something like this happens. We don't know how they're going to respond yet. So it's too early to be saying they're done.

On another topic, I'm a little tired of all this fear of the Bruins. Last season it was the same thing with Florida, and if not for a few boneheaded plays (and players) in the last few games we could've won that round.

Plus, we might end up facing Carolina (or even NJ), and though they won the latest matchup we lacked several key pieces but still kept it close.

I'm not a fatalist when it comes to this team. Anything can happen in the NHL playoffs. It's a different season. That's why you just get in and start over.

And that's why I'm still most concerned about Eller and Carlson, who have been dismal in the postseason.

 

[YippieKaey]

WRT Ovie, it's terrible news. You have to have sympathy for him and his family and blow the politics out your ass.

Some rando was complaining about Ovie leaving the team. Ovie stopped by the locker room to deliver a speech when he could've been on a plane. Who knows if doing that caused him to not be at his father's bedside. I'm not sure if he made it. But it was a huge gesture. And as for surrendering the "C", maybe his team didn't want him to do that.

There's also the chance that this adversity gives Ovie and the team something to rally around. Some guys pour themselves into their work when something like this happens. We don't know how they're going to respond yet. So it's too early to be saying they're done.

On another topic, I'm a little tired of all this fear of the Bruins. Last season it was the same thing with Florida, and if not for a few boneheaded plays (and players) in the last few games we could've won that round.

Plus, we might end up facing Carolina (or even NJ), and though they won the latest matchup we lacked several key pieces but still kept it close.

I'm not a fatalist when it comes to this team. Anything can happen in the NHL playoffs. It's a different season. That's why you just get in and start over.

And that's why I'm still most concerned about Eller and Carlson, who have been dismal in the postseason.

Im pretty sure we won't be making the playoffs, and there is absolutely nothing pointing towards anything greater than a first round exit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Doom and gloom!

 

[twabby]

On another topic, I'm a little tired of all this fear of the Bruins. Last season it was the same thing with Florida, and if not for a few boneheaded plays (and players) in the last few games we could've won that round.

Plus, we might end up facing Carolina (or even NJ), and though they won the latest matchup we lacked several key pieces but still kept it close.

I'm not a fatalist when it comes to this team. Anything can happen in the NHL playoffs. It's a different season. That's why you just get in and start over.

And that's why I'm still most concerned about Eller and Carlson, who have been dismal in the postseason.

The big obstacle I see is that Washington hasn’t been able to score the past 4 postseasons, and their offense is even more anemic this year than the prior 4 regular seasons. Boston is by far the best defensive team in the NHL. Carolina is also very good defensively.

Given that, where will the goals come from in a hypothetical first round series? It’s difficult to imagine this postseason going any different than recent ones.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Honestly, Mikhail's death (RIP) and Ovi's associated departure is just the final straw for this cursed season. I almost wish December hadn't happened so there'd be absolutely no doubt. And I'm only upset about it because Ovi is losing things that matter to him. His father first and foremost, but also progress toward life goals.

IMO Lavi has done pretty damn well during his tenure here, given Covid, the injuries, etc. I'm much more interested in replacing some of his subordinates, especially Fosythe and Murray, though if Lavi goes I won't be deeply bothered--assuming they hire well.

Every UFA not named Orlov (and maybe Jensen?) should be for sale starting now. I'd consider keeping Gus too depending on price. Add in Kuz and Mantha (and maybe Oshie ) and that's a lot of salary going out. Get what you can in trade. Get better draft position. Then make hay in the summer.

This should not be a firesale for picks and prospects with the goal of developing a new young core, but rather for cap space and assets to go shopping with later for younger, but established, players.

Those wanting 19 gone can forget it. Ted won't do it. He's made clear that he wants Ovi and Backstrom both to retire as Caps, and that's his right. I personally think Nick can still be valuable to the team. He said recently that he's still working on getting his timing back--and his passing is still great--so if he finds his groove, who knows? He's just under .5ppg this season as it is. An offseason to train rather than rehab should help. Will he ever truly "earn" his paycheck? Probably no. But we all knew his salary was backdated anyway.

Wilson is just an unknowable at this point. Can he find his game? Hopefully he'll heal up in the next few weeks and have a full offseason to train and come back more like himself. But really, it's all TBD, and he can't (and shouldn't) be traded until we know more.

Same with 74 to some extent. His injury isn't directly performance-related, but he's obviously not recovered yet and who knows what's really going on. That said, a long break and time to strengthen and reset could be just what he needs to better handle the grind going forward.

And lastly, Ovechkin. I'm convinced the situation with his father has been dragging him down these past few weeks. Let him grieve without the pressure of a playoff race. Start fresh next year in pursuit of 895 and a second championship.

Agree mostly except about Orlov. With his current performance level, he’s an unneeded luxury and not worth a likely $6.5X5 contract extension. Move him at the TDL for some decent assets.

 

[twabby]

Agree mostly except about Orlov. With his current performance level, he’s an unneeded luxury and not worth a likely $6.5X5 contract extension. Move home at the TDL for some decent assets.

I think I’d rather see them re-sign Jensen over Orlov given the likely difference in salary demands at this point and their relative similar overall impacts throughout their careers.

I really want to know the extent of Orlov’s injury. Is it a Karl Alzner career killer, or something minor? Any time I see an unexpected dip in performance I think injury could be a reasonable explanation. If it is injury-related I’d be hesitant to give him a big deal, especially when the alternative would be a nice haul at the deadline.