Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[CapitalsCupReality]

Player cards were updated this week from Dom at The Athletic. They're just one way of looking at the value of players but I've listed the Caps out here to really drive home the point of how much their top players are letting the team down. The Surplus Contract Value is the number I've listed which is the difference between their actual Salary and their Market Value, or how much their performance would net them in a yearly salary based on their current and yearly projected performance metrics, GSVA (Game Score Value Added), and how much their performance adds to their team's number of wins.

As an example, Kuznetsov's Surplus Value is -$4.2M which is the net of his Salary ($7.8M) and how much he's actually worth this year ($3.6M on the open market). I've bolded the guys who have negative value relative to their contract.

Ovechkin: -$1.2M
Kuznetsov: -$4.2M
Wilson: -$2.5M
Backstrom: -$6.6M
Oshie: -$3.2M
Hathaway: +$2.1M
Mantha: -$1.8M
Strome: +$1.1M (Dom pegs his market value for this year @ $4.6M so his contract seems like a good deal given the cap increase assuming he doesn't regress)
Eller: -$1.6M
Sheary: +$1.9M
Johansson: +$2.9M
Dowd: +$3.3M
Carlson: $0.0M
Orlov: +$1.0M
Fehervary: +$0.5M
Jensen: +$3.3M
Gustafsson: +$7.3M (!)
TvR: +$2.4M
Kuemper: -$0.2M
Lindgren: +$0.2M.

Re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic all you want but when your top guys are playing like they should be paid 3rd and 4th line money you're going to have a bad time. To what should be a surprise to no one, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie look like boat anchors. And Eller's number may not look bad comparatively but providing -$1.6M in value on a $3.5M salary is really awful. Also, Gustafsson... what a pickup by BMac.

Lol….the entire core is a negative…..Fire Lavi!

 

[twabby]

Could be a fit. Pending RFA.

If he’s extremely cheap I’d consider Fabbro in the 6D role as a rental. But given his QO I don’t like him as a long-term fit. He’s never shown anything to make me believe he’d be a fit in the top 4 after this year.

I think any rental needs to be extremely cheap given that Washington is going to need pot sweeteners to dump contracts. So while a second or third round pick might not seem like much to give up for Fabbro it may be the difference between being able to dump Mantha’s contract or not, for instance.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Lol….the entire core is a negative…..Fire Lavi!

I think it also should afford Carlson a little leeway with the fans, including myself. He's been absolutely horrible in the playoffs but there's really no denying how important he is to their regular season success.

 

[hb13xchamps]

I’d guess that they let Lavi walk in the offseason and start fresh. Especially if the talk about core altering moves is true and not just fan fodder. Have a new coach step in with a relatively new and (hopefully) younger group of guys.

 

[RedRocking]

Has anyone else entertained the idea that Lavi might just want to move on next year? Obviously in most cases, coaches want to have stability and get extended.

But, there hasn’t been any more news on that front in a while. Maybe Lavi would prefer to go to an actual contender next year where his “bump”, playoff experience (whatever you want to call it) might prove fruitful to a team on the cusp.

In any event, I’m glad they are waiting until the offseason, with so much of the roster up in the air. If they’d be willing to take a step back and retool, then Lavi is probably not the guy for that. However, if they don’t want to risk any of Ovi’s final 3 seasons on another TR, or Oates - maybe he sticks around regardless.

 

[Misery74]

I’d guess that they let Lavi walk in the offseason and start fresh. Especially if the talk about core altering moves is true and not just fan fodder. Have a new coach step in with a relatively new and (hopefully) younger group of guys.

Why not have Nelson step in as the interim?

 

[YippieKaey]

yeah, like Mantha

Mantha doesn't have heart and this will never score 30. He could, but he doesn't want to

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why not have Nelson step in as the interim?

Because that makes us worse? Why so hard after a good coach‘s job?

Dude will just get another job with a better roster, and we’ll probably hire a lesser guy….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Mantha doesn't have heart and this will never score 30. He could, but he doesn't want to

If he gets inserted into a stacked lineup like Colorado or Edmonton he would…

 

[Misery74]

Because that makes us worse? Why so hard after a good coach‘s job?

Dude will just get another job with a better roster, and we’ll probably hire a lesser guy….

How does that make us worse? Not sure I follow. This happens pretty frequently in the NHL.

 

[hb13xchamps]

Why not have Nelson step in as the interim?

If the season is lost already, what’s the point? They’d have to compensate a fired Lavi and increase Nelson’s salary for a few months. Plus any additional assistant coaches they let go and/or hire on an interm basis. Plus, they would most likely do an extensive search and interview process and might not view Nelson as the best replacement for Lavi.

Would be a lot easier to allow Lavi walk away this offseason with any assistants whose contract is up. I’m sure McCarthy will just retire as he was going that route after Nashville let him go.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How does that make us worse? Not sure I follow. This happens pretty frequently in the NHL.

Because Lavi is better? What’s the obsession with having this guy’s job?

 

[Hivemind]

If the season is lost already, what’s the point? They’d have to compensate a fired Lavi and increase Nelson’s salary for a few months. Plus any additional assistant coaches they let go and/or hire on an interm basis. Plus, they would most likely do an extensive search and interview process and might not view Nelson as the best replacement for Lavi.

Would be a lot easier to allow Lavi walk away this offseason with any assistants whose contract is up. I’m sure McCarthy will just retire as he was going that route after Nashville let him go.

The salary bump would presumably be off-set if they can get a couple additional home games of revenue by making the playoffs. While I would have agreed with you regarding replacing Lavi in the off-season vs. an in-season move a few months ago, I think at this point they need to make the swap ASAP if they want to assess their path forward at the deadline. Their runway is basically gone, and they need to see if the coaching swap does in fact create a jolt on the team that spurs them to better play. Even if that bump is only temporary, it could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

 

[twabby]

I’m not sure where I stand but having Nelson coach the remainder of the year includes the added benefit of giving him a trial run before their coaching search begins in the offseason. If Nelson impresses then he could be an option for next season. Similarly if Nelson stinks well at least they’ve eliminated him from contention next year.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

The salary bump would presumably be off-set if they can get a couple additional home games of revenue by making the playoffs. While I would have agreed with you regarding replacing Lavi in the off-season vs. an in-season move a few months ago, I think at this point they need to make the swap ASAP if they want to assess their path forward at the deadline. Their runway is basically gone, and they need to see if the coaching swap does in fact create a jolt ont eh team that spurs them to better play. Even if that bump is only temporary, it could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

There's something to be said about a coaching change - even if it's for a guy with an 'interim' label - to accompany a few player moves. Shake things up now (or soon) to provide a big league environment under a new guy to find out how guys perform in meaningful games - perhaps not meaningful for the Caps but for many of their opponents. Helps to identify more significant line-up holes and targets for offseason moves.

 

[HTFN]

Because Lavi is better? What’s the obsession with having this guy’s job?

Lmfao what is your obsession with this man? I don’t think you’ve ever found fault with anything he’s done even though he’s definitely earned critique. Are you family?

 

[g00n]

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Lavi has had shitty circumstances over his tenure with WSH, that being said….I’m not sure he gets the best out of his offensive players so I’d like to see a change.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Please no to Braun. That would imply secret tankage because he’s bad.

 

[swansonsays]

McIlrath was called up this afternoon. Someone injured last night that I missed? Trade incoming involving a defender? Johansen is sick, or I assume it would have been him called up.

Edit = seems weird that Ovi's spot would be filled by McIlrath of all people, but maybe that's all it is. Ovi isn't showing on the roster at the moment.

 

[Hivemind]

Lmfao what is your obsession with this man? I don’t think you’ve ever found fault with anything he’s done even though he’s definitely earned critique. Are you family?

The best part is that we know the opinions of the Lavi Defense Force will suddenly swing to Lavi being bad the second he's fired or let go. Because as soon as the org follows thru, it's then the Right Move.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Lmfao what is your obsession with this man? I don’t think you’ve ever found fault with anything he’s done even though he’s definitely earned critique. Are you family?

Oh lookey….The White Gnight shows up…..I think he’s a good coach as he has proven.
Change my mind.

Every coach earns critique…..not necessarily a witch hunt for their job (and I have plenty of issues with some of his choices)…

 

[PlushMinus]

Has anyone else entertained the idea that Lavi might just want to move on next year? Obviously in most cases, coaches want to have stability and get extended.

But, there hasn’t been any more news on that front in a while. Maybe Lavi would prefer to go to an actual contender next year where his “bump”, playoff experience (whatever you want to call it) might prove fruitful to a team on the cusp.

In any event, I’m glad they are waiting until the offseason, with so much of the roster up in the air. If they’d be willing to take a step back and retool, then Lavi is probably not the guy for that. However, if they don’t want to risk any of Ovi’s final 3 seasons on another TR, or Oates - maybe he sticks around regardless.

I mean, to be honest, do we care what Lavi wants? Coaches are well paid to do a job, and that job is to either help a team win a championship, or turnaround a team that is doing poorly and over a number of seasons make them better - ideally with a view towards winning a championship.

I think it's fair to say Lavi hasn't done that.

 

[Drakon]

The best part is that we know the opinions of the Lavi Defense Force will suddenly swing to Lavi being bad the second he's fired or let go. Because as soon as the org follows thru, it's then the Right Move.

It's been obvious since his first year that the critiques of him from previous stops were spot on. It's like he refuses to learn after he gets fired.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think the ship is going down….GMBM would have to be a magician at this point to find a way insert team needle-moving meaningful talent in-season.

Look at the list of high priced underachievers….the entire core is flopping from age to injury to lack of F’s given…

Ovechkin probably gone a week minimum only solidifies this more….

I said early on this season….not the worst year to take a small step back, maybe get lucky in the lottery, get a quick sure fire draftee….then retool with major moves this off-season. GMBM should be the busiest guy in the league…..and finding Lavi‘s replacement can be part of it then.