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Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

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You’d have to be pretty naive to think a NA journalist is not going to push for their guy regardless of nationality. Canadian media has been, and will forever be, all over the narrative for a member of a Canadian club to win it. Whatever their nationality. Sure, if there are two fighting for it in Canada, (Leon and Connor for example) they may push for the Canadian but if it’s Leon or Connor vs Eichel, or MacKinnon, or any American team they will be all in on the oilers boys, almost unanimously.
 
Skolman said:
I don't really see how you can make a case for Mack over Leon this season.

Mackinnon: 64 games played, 27 goals, 73 assists, 100 points

Draisalt: 63 games played, 46 goals, 49 assists, 95 points..

Matthews won the Hart in 21-22, don't really see how Leon doesn't win it this season.
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I mean based on exclusively the data you’re providing:

100 > 95​


Any other brain teasers for us?
 
JoeSakic13 said:
I mean based on exclusively the data you’re providing:

100 > 95​


Any other brain teasers for us?
Click to expand...
What were the narrative reasons Mac beat Kuch for it last year?

I seem to recall a combination of more goal+ kuch relied on too many Empty Net points. No?

This year just feels a lot like MacK vs Kuch did last season. I dunno.
 
Perfect_Drug said:
What were the narrative reasons Mac beat Kuch for it last year?

I seem to recall a combination of more goal+ kuch relied on too many Empty Net points. No?

This year just feels a lot like MacK vs Kuch did last season. I dunno.
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Cherry picking some of the dumber fans on here from last year. Empty Net points shouldn’t be an asterisk stat; if they were so easy then everyone would load up on them.

I for one thought Kucherov was going to win last year because his team would have been a lottery team without him. Posted on here about it several times.

That said, MacK has been the better player and has had more points this year. Is it impossible that Drai wins the Hart? No, but right now it’s Mack’s to lose IMO.
 
JoeSakic13 said:
Cherry picking some of the dumber fans on here from last year. Empty Net points shouldn’t be an asterisk stat; if they were so easy then everyone would load up on them.

I for one thought Kucherov was going to win last year because his team would have been a lottery team without him. Posted on here about it several times.

That said, MacK has been the better player and has had more points this year. Is it impossible that Drai wins the Hart? No, but right now it’s Mack’s to lose IMO.
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It's not a "better player" award.

The Hart is a narrative award, based on who has the best "story".

Messier won 2 Harts when Lemieux and Gretzky were in their prime.
Taylor Hall won a few years ago.
Jose Theodore won one.

Neither has ever been considered the best player in the world.


So who has the better story this season? Drai or MacK?


Last year the EN points were used to discredit Kucherovs case for the Hart.
 
Perfect_Drug said:
It's not a "better player" award.

The Hart is a narrative award, based on who has the best "story".

Messier won 2 Harts when Lemieux and Gretzky were in their prime.
Taylor Hall won a few years ago.
Jose Theodore won one.

Neither has ever been considered the best player in the world.


So who has the better story this season? Drai or MacK?


Last year the EN points were used to discredit Kucherovs case for the Hart.
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I think you’re giving the voters way too much credit here.

Didn’t several ballots for all-star teams last year get excluded because they didn’t vote the correct number of players? Not to mention another didn’t get their votes in on time if I remember correctly.
 
JoeSakic13 said:
I mean based on exclusively the data you’re providing:

100 > 95​


Any other brain teasers for us?
Click to expand...
Considering the difference in empty net points and that MacKinnon's lead in points is solely in secondary assists... You need to have lots of confidence in points specifically, even though both goals and primary points have been proven to be more predictive of team success than plain points.
 
JoeSakic13 said:
Cherry picking some of the dumber fans on here from last year. Empty Net points shouldn’t be an asterisk stat; if they were so easy then everyone would load up on them.

I for one thought Kucherov was going to win last year because his team would have been a lottery team without him. Posted on here about it several times.

That said, MacK has been the better player and has had more points this year. Is it impossible that Drai wins the Hart? No, but right now it’s Mack’s to lose IMO.
Click to expand...
It would be pretty typical of the hockey writers association to ignore the exact same arguments they used last year to give the Hart to Mackinnon over Kucherov.
 
Perfect_Drug said:
What were the narrative reasons Mac beat Kuch for it last year?

I seem to recall a combination of more goal+ kuch relied on too many Empty Net points. No?

This year just feels a lot like MacK vs Kuch did last season. I dunno.
Click to expand...

You’re forgetting that Tampa fans were squawking about MacKinnon having Rantanen.
 
OilWagon said:
Well good thing for Leon his GPG gap over Mackinnon is greater than Mathews was over Mcdavid. His PPG gap behind Mack is also much smaller than Matthews was. Also he's actually played the games so we don't have to use averages. Oh also Mack has like 15 empty net points. It's easily Draisaitls to lose at tbis point.
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That wasn't the point. Matthews put up one of the best goalscoring seasons of the era, while missing a few games too. Drai is going to win a solid Rocket but nothing particularly special (and no his lead over the others doesn't change that).

I agree that Drai is the leader now but Mac building a ten point lead in points may make it really close. He doesn't have the luxury of the other team focusing on another superstar forward.
 
JoeSakic13 said:
Cherry picking some of the dumber fans on here from last year. Empty Net points shouldn’t be an asterisk stat; if they were so easy then everyone would load up on them.
Click to expand...
So to be clear, you don't think it's easier to score vs an empty net than it is to score vs a goalie? Or what point are you trying to make?

Here's the thing. Let's say a team is leading by two goals with 1:30 left. How likely are they to win, 99%? After you score the empty net goal, how likely is the team to win now, 99.9%?

Empty net goals, in general, are relatively low-impact goals because the probability of the opponent scoring a goal without a goalie is relatively low to begin with.

So, yes, on average, empty net goals are worth significantly less than goals against goaltenders, when it comes to how much they influence the ultimate outcome of the game.
 
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I would vote for Draisaitl over MacKinnon as things stand right now, things can change though. I can't say it's easy to see how voters would go though, which it was last year. They want a narrative and I don't see much of one with either Draisaitl or MacKinnon right now.
 
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