Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Corby78]

The issue is who steps up? Their second highest goal scorer is MoJo is pacing for 19 goals on the season. I’ll say that again: the team’s second leading scorer 56 games into the season is not projected to score 20 goals. Having depth is nice but it looks a lot less attractive when the entire forward group looks like depth. I guess Kuznetsov could decide to play hockey again or someone else could shoot unsustainably high for a few games and catch fire but it’s so hard for them to manufacture consistent and quality scoring chances and taking the 8-car out of the lineup makes a team that already doesn’t look dangerous offensively suddenly look a lot more anemic.

Yeah very telling stat. A lot of bottom six depth and issues with top six player (injuries or bad play). The irony that people are saying we won’t be sellers because we are committed to putting a team around Ovie, yet he isn’t supported this year.

Also Lavi has been a failure and I wanted him here

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Can we just start moving some folks now? This line-up…

The meme fits that of an enema which this team needs. I much rather fix things now than have 10 to 15 years of rebuilding.

Also, I'm sick of Leafs, Rangers, etc always in rumors. Seems they can make the trades with cap limitations.

 

[YippieKaey]

It’s a reasonable thought, but I just don’t think that is where the Caps are at. They are in the playoff hunt. As I mentioned above, I think we can move one out and retain that punchers chance.

In the offseason, I have come around to two potential moves: First, Would Oshie be OK going to hometown Seattle to give them a player the fans can rally around. We could even get that done this year if Seattle really wants him - they could definitely use his leadership for a playoff run.

Secondly, we really need a top line talent. Not a middle 6 who COULD play up. Solid top 6 at least. Ideally someone 26-28 with wheels and heart who can be a 25-30 goal scorer. I don’t know who that is. Maybe Meier.

We're not getting Meier but Snively, if given the opportunity, could most likely pot at least 20-25 and certainly has wheels. Bäckström throwing him some sauce and off he goes. But i dream.

 

[Corby78]

Detroit 6 back with 4 games in hand
Ottawa 6 back with 3 games in hand

I was concerned with Buffalo and Pittsburgh two weeks ago, now I'm watching Florida, Detroit, and Ottawa as well. Yeah nothing to see here, all is fine.

 

[g00n]

Detroit 6 back with 4 games in hand
Ottawa 6 back with 3 games in hand

I was concerned with Buffalo and Pittsburgh two weeks ago, now I'm watching Florida, Detroit, and Ottawa as well. Yeah nothing to see here, all is fine.

I included those teams in my points pace analysis a few days ago. That is why I said the Caps need 65% or better points % the rest of the way.

The losses to SJ and CAR mean they almost need to win out over the next 7 games to stay competitive...probably 10-11 out of 14 points before the TDL.

I think the players will give it their best the rest of the month but mgmt has to be taking a realistic look at the situation now that Ovie is out in addition to so many other critical players (not to mention Oshie playing like he's suffering from parental sleep deprivation).

I think Gmbm said he was in contact with the agents of all the UFAs, which suggests they have a ballpark number for each player next year and likely know their future plans.

Backy and Kuzy have to take charge and some of the other role players need to crank up their games. Otherwise some guys are likely packing their bags in March.

 

[Misery74]

Detroit 6 back with 4 games in hand
Ottawa 6 back with 3 games in hand

I was concerned with Buffalo and Pittsburgh two weeks ago, now I'm watching Florida, Detroit, and Ottawa as well. Yeah nothing to see here, all is fine.

All of this to watch Boston lay waste to us in the first round too.

I wonder how there can be any argument for keep this coaching staff? We are 3-7 in our last 10 at home, with loses to Ott, Nash, Philly, Min, and SJ. Not exactly Murderers Row.

 

[Misery74]

One other point. I like Milano. But was there any reason to sign this twice waived player for 3 years, at almost $2m per? Who were we competing against for his services? Only ourselves really.

I would have given BMac a lifetime job after the Cup. Bottom line, he has been an absolute disaster since we have won.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

All of this to watch Boston lay waste to us in the first round too.

I wonder how there can be any argument for keep this coaching staff? We are 3-7 in our last 10 at home, with loses to Ott, Nash, Philly, Min, and SJ. Not exactly Murderers Row.

Most likely won't renew the contract, but I'm for interjecting change now. Teams like the Pens didn't wait for contracts to expire and cleaned house when needed.

 

[twabby]

Another benefit to selling is that if they do decide to trade Mantha, Oshie, or Kuznetsov in the offseason it’s entirely possible/probable they’ll need to include a sweetener for teams to take them. These sweeteners can be acquired this TDL for guys like Sheary, TVR, Gustafsson, Johansson, etc.

 

[Langway]

Breaking down the Blue Jackets' options for trading Vladislav Gavrikov

It's believed the Blue Jackets are seeking a first-round pick as a starting point for Gavrikov. Here's a list of potential trade partners.

theathletic.com

The Capitals would like to add a physical defenseman for the stretch drive and the playoffs, so they're in the market for Gavrikov or perhaps Montreal's Joel Edmundson.

Portzline. Hard to say if that still holds or if they're shopping in that bracket given the asset cost. Edmundson has another year left on his contract. A more modest target could be PHI's Nick Seeler, signed on the cheap next season as well. He's done fairly well in a depth role. Stecher, Kulikov or Braun would be among cheaper depth options that at least give them an upgrade over Irwin.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Breaking down the Blue Jackets' options for trading Vladislav Gavrikov

It's believed the Blue Jackets are seeking a first-round pick as a starting point for Gavrikov. Here's a list of potential trade partners.

theathletic.com

Portzline. Hard to say if that still holds or if they're shopping in that bracket given the asset cost. Edmundson has another year left on his contract. A more modest target could be PHI's Nick Seeler, signed on the cheap next season as well. He's done fairly well in a depth role. Stecher, Kulikov or Braun would be among cheaper depth options that at least give them an upgrade over Irwin.

I know nothing about Gavrikov. I see that he's an LD with decent size that was a 6th round pick for the Jackets back in 2015 and is a pending UFA. Is he really that good that he would warrant a first rounder in exchange? Is he a top four dman? Caps can always kick the tires on him come the summer.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

It's gut check time. If they get 3 or 4 of 6 points out of this you have to start believing they have a chance.

If they look completely lost then yeah it might be time to cut bait.

After the AS break I was using the Stadium Series game as the litmus test for the Capitals, that is once they play the Stadium Series game on Saturday against the Canes, that would be five games since coming back from the break and I'm of the belief that they would have to have gotten at minimum 5 points from those games. Two games now remain and they've gotten 2 points so far. We'll see.

However there's always the chance that they may get in to the playoffs by default as I've not been impressed with the Panthers and Islanders play.

 

[Agent37]

I'm not alone in thinking that this roster is not even close to being a genuine Stanley Cup contender, unless they somehow miraculously catch fire like they did in December and manage to sustain it? I'm genuinely starting to wonder if the best chance for Ovi to get another cup is for the Caps to go on a losing streak between now and the deadline and for BMac to sell some pieces of the roster and retool (Obviously getting rid of Mantha and Eller) I hate to say it because I love Osh and he actually is a factor in the playoffs and is the heart of the team but am wondering if it's actually time to move on and gun for pieces like Boeser and Gavrikov (if you can sign Gavrikov for a few years, but than you're locking out LD from more prospects moving up in the line up and risk a repeat of Siegenthaler (who quite honestly the capitals could really use rn). Idk I just kind of feel like this roster is a s**t show that isn't properly sorted out the way their currently performing.

 

[twabby]

I know nothing about Gavrikov. I see that he's an LD with decent size that was a 6th round pick for the Jackets back in 2015 and is a pending UFA. Is he really that good that he would warrant a first rounder in exchange? Is he a top four dman? Caps can always kick the tires on him come the summer.

He’s the exact type of player Washington should avoid: a middling non-impactful defenseman who is going to go for way too much as a rental.

Good on Columbus for pumping up his value though!

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

He’s the exact type of player Washington should avoid: a middling non-impactful defenseman who is going to go for way too much as a rental.

View attachment 650675

Good on Columbus for pumping up his value though!

It’s also disappointing that they’re targeting LD when they spent multiple high draft picks on LDs in consecutive years in Johansen, Alexyev, Siegenthaler, Fehervary, and Tobias Geisser. They also signed Bobby Nardella, traded for Brendan Dillon, and claimed Dennis Cholowski. And right now their left side, when everyone is healthy, is Orlov, Gustafsson, and Fehervary. A whole bunch of mostly nothing for a lot of investment.

Side note: Kempny was a brilliant acquisition and was even better in 2018-19 until that hamstring tear so I don’t hold that against them.

 

[um]

He’s the exact type of player Washington should avoid: a middling non-impactful defenseman who is going to go for way too much as a rental.

View attachment 650675

Good on Columbus for pumping up his value though!

I'd like the Caps to get in on the value pumping with all our UFA dman.

If these guys can get 1st what can Orlov and Jensen get?

 

[Langway]

Gavrikov's reps have been allowed to talk to teams about an extension so presumably that will be a component and explain the price tag. He's maybe a decent #3. Good length, physicality and some skill but keeps it pretty simple.

Hard to see the value in giving up a pick around 15 potentially for that sort of player, even if they've got significant blueline turnover to potentially navigate. Meier? Sure. Chychrun? Maybe. If SJS wants to retain half on Karlsson, alright. That's about all I can think of that would be worth giving up the pick for (among frequently mentioned candidates anyway).

 

[Jags]

One other point. I like Milano. But was there any reason to sign this twice waived player for 3 years, at almost $2m per? Who were we competing against for his services? Only ourselves really.

I would have given BMac a lifetime job after the Cup. Bottom line, he has been an absolute disaster since we have won.

Milano was a victim of circumstance. Passenger Syndrome -- the idea that a player's success is largely due to the talent he plays with. That was the book on him going into last offseason, he wasn't a good fit on his PTO, then he landed here, played all over the lineup with middling talent, and proved that he's an impact guy on his own.

So long as he doesn't regress, it's a good contract. Any good player on a less-than-median contract is saving us money, not bilking us. This is the same bargain Connolly was on his cheap-o deal, adjusted for inflation. Gotta pay those pandemic prices.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Player cards were updated this week from Dom at The Athletic. They're just one way of looking at the value of players but I've listed the Caps out here to really drive home the point of how much their top players are letting the team down. The Surplus Contract Value is the number I've listed which is the difference between their actual Salary and their Market Value, or how much their performance would net them in a yearly salary based on their current and yearly projected performance metrics, GSVA (Game Score Value Added), and how much their performance adds to their team's number of wins.

As an example, Kuznetsov's Surplus Value is -$4.2M which is the net of his Salary ($7.8M) and how much he's actually worth this year ($3.6M on the open market). I've bolded the guys who have negative value relative to their contract.

Ovechkin: -$1.2M
Kuznetsov: -$4.2M
Wilson: -$2.5M
Backstrom: -$6.6M
Oshie: -$3.2M
Hathaway: +$2.1M
Mantha: -$1.8M
Strome: +$1.1M (Dom pegs his market value for this year @ $4.6M so his contract seems like a good deal given the cap increase assuming he doesn't regress)
Eller: -$1.6M
Sheary: +$1.9M
Johansson: +$2.9M
Dowd: +$3.3M
Carlson: $0.0M
Orlov: +$1.0M
Fehervary: +$0.5M
Jensen: +$3.3M
Gustafsson: +$7.3M (!)
TvR: +$2.4M
Kuemper: -$0.2M
Lindgren: +$0.2M.

Re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic all you want but when your top guys are playing like they should be paid 3rd and 4th line money you're going to have a bad time. To what should be a surprise to no one, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie look like boat anchors. And Eller's number may not look bad comparatively but providing -$1.6M in value on a $3.5M salary is really awful. Also, Gustafsson... what a pickup by BMac.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

 

[JohnCarlsaurus]

Yeah very telling stat. A lot of bottom six depth and issues with top six player (injuries or bad play). The irony that people are saying we won’t be sellers because we are committed to putting a team around Ovie, yet he isn’t supported this year.

Also Lavi has been a failure and I wanted him here

Same. Really disappointed

 

[g00n]

Player cards were updated this week from Dom at The Athletic. They're just one way of looking at the value of players but I've listed the Caps out here to really drive home the point of how much their top players are letting the team down. The Surplus Contract Value is the number I've listed which is the difference between their actual Salary and their Market Value, or how much their performance would net them in a yearly salary based on their current and yearly projected performance metrics, GSVA (Game Score Value Added), and how much their performance adds to their team's number of wins.

As an example, Kuznetsov's Surplus Value is -$4.2M which is the net of his Salary ($7.8M) and how much he's actually worth this year ($3.6M on the open market). I've bolded the guys who have negative value relative to their contract.

Ovechkin: -$1.2M
Kuznetsov: -$4.2M
Wilson: -$2.5M
Backstrom: -$6.6M
Oshie: -$3.2M
Hathaway: +$2.1M
Mantha: -$1.8M
Strome: +$1.1M (Dom pegs his market value for this year @ $4.6M so his contract seems like a good deal given the cap increase assuming he doesn't regress)
Eller: -$1.6M
Sheary: +$1.9M
Johansson: +$2.9M
Dowd: +$3.3M
Carlson: $0.0M
Orlov: +$1.0M
Fehervary: +$0.5M
Jensen: +$3.3M
Gustafsson: +$7.3M (!)
TvR: +$2.4M
Kuemper: -$0.2M
Lindgren: +$0.2M.

Re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic all you want but when your top guys are playing like they should be paid 3rd and 4th line money you're going to have a bad time. To what should be a surprise to no one, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie look like boat anchors. And Eller's number may not look bad comparatively but providing -$1.6M in value on a $3.5M salary is really awful. Also, Gustafsson... what a pickup by BMac.

How does this factor injuries?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

How does this factor injuries?

It only measures their actual on-ice performance relative to projected on-ice performance over the same sample size, not actual performance relative to 82-game expectations.

 

[Langway]

Could be a fit. Pending RFA.

 

[Raikkonen]

Secondly, we really need a top line talent. Not a middle 6 who COULD play up. Solid top 6 at least. Ideally someone 26-28 with wheels and heart who can be a 25-30 goal scorer. I don’t know who that is. Maybe Meier.

yeah, like Mantha