Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

I'm with you, but I don't think it's giving up to be realistic about what's going on so we make wise decisions until the roster freeze.

I'm all for hoping that we do find our way to having an actual 15% chance at the finals, but I don't want us acting like all-in buyers on twabby's <1% chance or anyone's graph designed to get degenerate gamblers to bet their socks on dodgy odds.

And the "Anything can happen, it's not over yet, and you're a quitter and not a fan if you think otherwise" argument makes it even harder to swallow.

You're a quitter if you're giving up now.

We'll talk again in 2 weeks.

 

[pman25]

I cannot wait until Laviolette is gone. Continue to bench our top D prospect in Alexeyev for no reason. Call up a journeyman tough guy in McIlrath to play over him as a 'reward' - as if playing Irwin over AA was not bad enough. Borderline criminal. Has has to go. It's the same bullshit he did with McMichael, but at least we could send down CMM eventually and his lack of minutes were partially justified. AA has been very solid when played, he should be playing every game.

I don't think AA has been particularly good or noticeable, but yes he should probably play over Irwin or McIlrath.

But really, whoever is the 6D doesn't matter that much. We can't score!

 

[Raikkonen]

Sell, sell, sell.


View attachment 651292

I see dead people multiple 1st round picks there in the list

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm with you, but I don't think it's giving up to be realistic about what's going on so we make wise decisions until the roster freeze.

I'm all for hoping that we do find our way to having an actual 15% chance at the finals, but I don't want us acting like all-in buyers on twabby's <1% chance or anyone's graph designed to get degenerate gamblers to bet their socks on dodgy odds.

And the "Anything can happen, it's not over a yet, you're a quitter and not a fan if you think otherwise" argument makes it even harder to swallow.

I think as Goon pointed out most responsible teams wouldn’t bail so early is all. It sends a distasteful message to your organization and the fans.

I think Management probably accepted their Team fate internally already. My stance on acquisitions doesn‘t waiver. I’m always open to good hockey trades.

I don't think AA has been particularly good or noticeable, but yes he should probably play over Irwin or McIlrath.

But really, whoever is the 6D doesn't matter that much. We can't score!

This….

 

[g00n]

I think as Goon pointed out most responsible teams wouldn’t bail so early is all. It sends a distasteful message to your organization and the fans.

I think Management probably accepted their Team fate internally already.

It's very likely they have plans for several scenarios, good and bad. I can't imagine they wouldn't.

In fact they've probably crunched all the numbers and know exactly when they'd probably pull the trigger, and on which guys, with X and Y teams interested. They certainly have a similar contingency plan if the team is still in a playoff spot but needs help. And yet another for surging and trying to find spots for LTIR guys returning.

They're not sitting around online reading posts like ours and thinking "I wonder if capsnut69 has a point...maybe we should sell? I should ask Ted."

 

[Raikkonen]

This looks simple

We have underperforming expensive players mostly on wings. This is where you can slot younger hungrier guys and maybe be at the same capacity in terms of winning. Do you really think if Caps traded Oshie and just used NAK in his place they would be worse? Mantha traded and Snively/Protas instead? I say no way we are getting worse. Mantha and Oshie right now are net negative. Same for Eller. It has to be next man up in terms of defensive zone starts besides Dowd I guess. GMBM have 3 expensive centers now, so we depend on their defensive work too. No biggie.

Obviously that could only work if Backstrom and Kuznetsov will change a gear or two, but there is no way they are gone in season, so we have to hope they can play better in April.

Sell, sell, sell indeed.

And then fight for every point.

 

[Jags]

You're a quitter if you're giving up now.

We'll talk again in 2 weeks.

Yeah, I'm not seeing so many quitters. There are a couple Chicken Littles running around as usual, but everyone else is just in a roster speculation thread a couple weeks before the deadline talking about how things look right now, today, because the distant past is irrelevant and tomorrow isn't here yet.

But we sure are lucky to have you around to tell us when it's okay to say certain things so that no one puts our fandom in quotation marks!

 

[pman25]

I just don't see how selling Hathaway, Sheary, Eller, etc is giving up or quitting. We might actually get better depending on the returns we get and if it means Wilson/Dowd get back in the lineup soon and maybe Snively slots in full time or Protas does as well.

They can gain some picks while remaining just as "good" as they are now. Then flip those picks in a package with McMichael/Fehervary/Mantha for Timo Meier and/or Jakob Chychrun. You see? We can be sellers and buyers!

 

[g00n]

Yeah, I'm not seeing so many quitters. There are a couple Chicken Littles running around as usual, but everyone else is just in a roster speculation thread a couple weeks before the deadline talking about how things look right now, today, because the distant past is irrelevant and tomorrow isn't here yet.

But we sure are lucky to have you around to tell us when it's okay to say certain things so that no one puts our fandom in quotation marks!

Well you're partly right. The team doesn't care if any of you are giving up. So call it what you want.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This looks simple

We have underperforming expensive players mostly on wings. This is where you can slot younger hungrier guys and maybe be at the same capacity in terms of winning. Do you really think if Caps traded Oshie and just used NAK in his place they would be worse? Mantha traded and Snively/Protas instead? I say no way we are getting worse. Mantha and Oshie right now are net negative. Same for Eller. It has to be next man up in terms of defensive zone starts besides Dowd I guess. GMBM have 3 expensive centers now, so we depend on their defensive work too. No biggie.

Obviously that could only work if Backstrom and Kuznetsov will change a gear or two, but there is no way they are gone in season, so we have to hope they can play better in April.

Sell, sell, sell indeed.

And then fight for every point.

Probably would be worse with the Oshie move, not with Mantha one….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah, I'm not seeing so many quitters. There are a couple Chicken Littles running around as usual, but everyone else is just in a roster speculation thread a couple weeks before the deadline talking about how things look right now, today, because the distant past is irrelevant and tomorrow isn't here yet.

But we sure are lucky to have you around to tell us when it's okay to say certain things so that no one puts our fandom in quotation marks!

Now see, you were good until you decided to take a piss on the floor here….nobody needs feigned indignation in this conversation. Plenty of quit going on around here…..mixed with some sad and reluctant near-acceptance of their fate.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I just don't see how selling Hathaway, Sheary, Eller, etc is giving up or quitting. We might actually get better depending on the returns we get and if it means Wilson/Dowd get back in the lineup soon and maybe Snively slots in full time or Protas does as well.

They can gain some picks while remaining just as "good" as they are now. Then flip those picks in a package with McMichael/Fehervary/Mantha for Timo Meier and/or Jakob Chychrun. You see? We can be sellers and buyers!

Wouldn’t we be short NHL bodies if we suddenly traded these 3 or more guys for 2nd/3rd round picks? that’s low-key (Quiet) quitting lol…

I mean shit though…..if the Timo Meier deal is sitting waiting on Eller and any of those others being traded….snap to it! Don’t think that fantasy is likely though….

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

Will you feel the same way if they beat FLA and CAR in their next 2 games?

Just as it's best to not "stew" about the results of one or two individual matches, it's also prudent to not get too giddy about them, either. Looking at the Capitals this season, and over the course of the past few of them, one gets the impression that as a team they are on a downward trajectory. This season their goaltending is better (and their prior tenders are doing well elsewhere, but that's indicative of a different issue), but scoring has sucked for a couple of months and individual players are pretty much as @Jags summarized.

We wouldn't be the 8th seed with a 15% chance at the finals. We don't have that great a chance at being the 8th seed to begin with, and if we manage it at all, it might be more because of other teams' failures than our successes.

Not all 8-seeds are made equally. Our best defenseman's got one ear, our marquee center's got one hip, a dude in the wings has one eye, our phenom center's playing like a bipolar off his meds, we've got one $6m wing who hasn't given 100% since he was 13, another $6m wing who has had more concussions than the entire AFC West, a $5m wing who just went directly from a busted knee to a busted something else, at least two defensemen on the roster you wouldn't start unless you lost a bet, and a coaching staff who used to coach a hockey team but now poorly run a M*A*S*H unit.

So simply gaining victories in the next two will not change my opinion. Convincing victories, perhaps with McIlrath playing like #43 used to or our tenders and skaters pitching shutouts in both (or similarly superlative team and individual performances) will nudge my opinion in a more positive direction. But it's gonna take alot of positives to change my overall view of this season.

 

[pman25]

Wouldn’t we be short NHL bodies if we suddenly traded these 3 or more guys for 2nd/3rd round picks? that’s low-key (Quiet) quitting lol…

I mean shit though…..if the Timo Meier deal is sitting waiting on Eller and any of those others being traded….snap to it! Don’t think that fantasy is likely though….

Not really, no. They have 13 forwards without Ovi, Wilson, Dowd right now. Add in Wilson / Dowd and we are at 15. Call up a Malenstyn or Borgstrom if you have too, but nah they wouldn’t be short

 

[g00n]

Just as it's best to not "stew" about the results of one or two individual matches, it's also prudent to not get too giddy about them, either. Looking at the Capitals this season, and over the course of the past few of them, one gets the impression that as a team they are on a downward trajectory. This season their goaltending is better (and their prior tenders are doing well elsewhere, but that's indicative of a different issue), but scoring has sucked for a couple of months and individual players are pretty much as @Jags summarized.

So simply gaining victories in the next two will not change my opinion. Convincing victories, perhaps with McIlrath playing like #43 used to or our tenders and skaters pitching shutouts in both (or similarly superlative team and individual performances) will nudge my opinion in a more positive direction. But it's gonna take alot of positives to change my overall view of this season.

I think beating FLA and CAR given everything that's happened and is happening would be a very positive sign. Maybe it's just me.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

 

[twabby]

Isn’t the underlying theme “don’t give up early”, not that we’re going to suddenly get hot and make the Finals?!! Lol….

We have too many injuries and slackers for that to happen….but the playoffs are not lost yet.

There are no guarantees that folding early gets you a better next hand.

There's something to be said for getting ahead of the market. Waiting until the last minute could limit the number of potential buyers and drive down acquisition cost.

For instance, if Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere both get traded a week or so before the deadline what will the market for Orlov look like at that point? If Matt Dumba is traded within the next week what will that do to Jensen's trade value?

With how cap-strapped teams are reducing the number of buyers by waiting could severely impact their ability to extract full value from their most valuable assets.

I think at this point we have enough information where the results of the next few games don't matter when it comes to their Cup odds for this season. They'll either be huge longshots or out of the playoffs completely regardless of whether they beat Carolina in a gimmick outdoor game, for example. Beating Florida tonight won't suddenly make Oshie's back feel all better.

So why not get ahead of the market and extract value while you can instead of potentially losing a game of trade-deadline musical chairs? I understand the optics may not look great to some, but give the fans some credit. Sell us on a retool/reload for next year instead of selling us on a "anything can happen!" prayer for this season that no one is really buying.

 

[YippieKaey]

Based on what? Fan feelings?

Why do you need a guarantee of anything? This is professional sports. You try to make the playoffs and take it from there.

View attachment 651175

Not sure what year this was done but it doesn't change the point since 8 teams always get in. 7th or 8th seed still has a 15% chance of making the Finals.

You may see that as 85% chance of failure. It all depends on how you look at it. If you're the #1 seed and you know the above, do you say "well we have a 74% chance of NOT making the Finals, let's blow it up"?

No way.



I'm going to say "the players are going to have to score more goals than in previous years" is the answer to that question.

Do you think this is impossible?

Four previous attempts without significant changes. Declining regular season performance from 80% of players. Looking at the standings. Having watched a lot of hockey. Watching the Caps play hockey.


Take your pick.

 

[g00n]

There's something to be said for getting ahead of the market. Waiting until the last minute could limit the number of potential buyers and drive down acquisition cost.

For instance, if Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere both get traded a week or so before the deadline what will the market for Orlov look like at that point? If Matt Dumba is traded within the next week what will that do to Jensen's trade value?

With how cap-strapped teams are reducing the number of buyers by waiting could severely impact their ability to extract full value from their most valuable assets.

I think at this point we have enough information where the results of the next few games don't matter when it comes to their Cup odds for this season. They'll either be huge longshots or out of the playoffs completely regardless of whether they beat Carolina in a gimmick outdoor game, for example. Beating Florida tonight won't suddenly make Oshie's back feel all better.

So why not get ahead of the market and extract value while you can instead of potentially losing a game of trade-deadline musical chairs? I understand the optics may not look great to some, but give the fans some credit. Sell us on a retool/reload for next year instead of selling us on a "anything can happen!" prayer for this season that no one is really buying.

You only need 2 buyers for a bidding war.

What happens if you make your moves and the market afterwards is much higher? Then you're at a disadvantage if your rivals are getting more in return.

OTOH if teams keep losing out on options they start to get desperate and might overpay. If there's one desperate team making a big move at some point it raises the potential value for the other teams that trade afterward.

So it cuts both ways. There isn't a set, 100% reliable "get in early" strategy.

Four previous attempts without significant changes. Declining regular season performance from 80% of players. Looking at the standings. Having watched a lot of hockey. Watching the Caps play hockey.


Take your pick.

Replaced both goaltenders. Significant changes.
Stats are about the same as last year, when they were a missed ENG away from probably eliminating the top seed.
They're currently in a playoff spot.
The rest is your subjective opinion.

 

[twabby]

You only need 2 buyers for a bidding war.

What happens if you make your moves and the market afterwards is much higher? Then you're at a disadvantage if your rivals are getting more in return.

OTOH if teams keep losing out on options they start to get desperate and might overpay. If there's one desperate team making a big move at some point it raises the potential value for the other teams that trade afterward.

So it cuts both ways. There isn't a set, 100% reliable "get in early" strategy.

For sure, the dynamics could be a bit different than what I described.

So let me rephrase: Washington should be willing to sell now and they shouldn't wait until the last minute before becoming willing to sell. If the determination is that waiting until TDL day will yield the biggest return, then by all means wait until then. But they should be inserting themselves into discussions now and should be letting rival GMs know that they are open for business. Make the Kings think twice about giving up a ridiculous package for Jakob Chychrun when instead they could a lesser (but still substantial) package for an extended Dmitry Orlov, for instance.

 

[g00n]

For sure, the dynamics could be a bit different than what I described.

So let me rephrase: Washington should be willing to sell now and they shouldn't wait until the last minute before becoming willing to sell. If the determination is that waiting until TDL day will yield the biggest return, then by all means wait until then. But they should be inserting themselves into discussions now and should be letting rival GMs know that they are open for business. Make the Kings think twice about giving up a ridiculous package for Jakob Chychrun when instead they could a lesser (but still substantial) package for an extended Dmitry Orlov, for instance.

Do we believe they aren't?

I'm seeing a lot of "sell sell sell" and not as much "let's listen to offers and see what happens by the TDL"

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Do we believe they aren't?

I'm seeing a lot of "sell sell sell" and not as much "let's listen to offers and see what happens by the TDL"

The mentality should be "We're ready to sell (for the right offer)."

My counter to your I'm seeing a lot of "sell sell sell" is I'm seeing a lot of "I like our team." It cuts both ways. I think most of us are not at either extreme.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There's something to be said for getting ahead of the market. Waiting until the last minute could limit the number of potential buyers and drive down acquisition cost.

For instance, if Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere both get traded a week or so before the deadline what will the market for Orlov look like at that point? If Matt Dumba is traded within the next week what will that do to Jensen's trade value?

With how cap-strapped teams are reducing the number of buyers by waiting could severely impact their ability to extract full value from their most valuable assets.

I think at this point we have enough information where the results of the next few games don't matter when it comes to their Cup odds for this season. They'll either be huge longshots or out of the playoffs completely regardless of whether they beat Carolina in a gimmick outdoor game, for example. Beating Florida tonight won't suddenly make Oshie's back feel all better.

So why not get ahead of the market and extract value while you can instead of potentially losing a game of trade-deadline musical chairs? I understand the optics may not look great to some, but give the fans some credit. Sell us on a retool/reload for next year instead of selling us on a "anything can happen!" prayer for this season that no one is really buying.

When have prices EVER gone DOWN at the deadline lol?

 

[g00n]

The mentality should be "We're ready to sell (for the right offer)."

My counter to your I'm seeing a lot of "sell sell sell" is I'm seeing a lot of "I like our team." It cuts both ways. I think most of us are not at either extreme.

Nobody has said "I like our team". The absence of seller panic is being interpreted that way.

 

[YippieKaey]

What are you basing this on?

The same people who constantly slag the front office for shitty asset management are demanding more trades and assets rather than pushing for the playoffs.

I don't see any difference in the amount of gambling and "faith" going on here.



This is a pointless distinction. The fact is the WC spots are not useless. It doesn't matter if you say 7th has 12% chance vs 15% aggregate. The point is the same. And right now we don't know which spot they'll land in.

I don't see anyone here saying "we need the 7th not the 8th spot because there's a big % difference". I see people saying "we're in a playoff spot but we're probably going to lose it and then if we don't we'll lose in the first round."

And again, the chance for the 8th spot is non-zero, while the top couple of seeds aren't even coin flip....they're half that. They don't give up because success isn't guaranteed.

Using CHANCE, pure chance, in a game of skill is pretty pointless since not all WC clinching teams are the same. The Kings won the Cup as an 8th seed with a young, up and coming core with some veteran mixed in.

We are not the 2014(!) LA Kings.