Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[AlexModvechkin8]

Too late to suck hard for Bedard?

 

[Empty Goal Net]

No they haven't.

"An argument isn't just contradiction."

 

[g00n]

"An argument isn't just contradiction."

Yes it is

 

[Langway]

If they were to sell and sell soon they would sink pretty hard I reckon. They may sink hard regardless in terms of morale and self-belief. They have no scorers.

They're 16th in points percentage. Others will sell but picking top ten wouldn't be out of the question I don't think. Especially if 8 doesn't return soon. Not Bedard territory but maybe Sale or Leonard.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

In 2022, the 27th place team (6th worst) had a 7.5% chance of winning the lottery. That team at present is the Canucks with 46 pts. (Caps have 62.) The 10th worst team last year had a 3.5% chance. That team is Ottawa with 55 pts, with 3 games in hand on the Caps. It's conceivable that the Caps could end up in the 6-10 position in terms of lottery odds.

 

[g00n]

Losing tonight would start the mathematical clock ticking a lot faster.

They'd need about a 70-75% points % the rest of the way after losing to SJ, CAR, and now probably FLA. Prior to that they had a better chance at hitting the needed ~65%, and they had Ovie.

Falling out of a playoff spot gives Gmbm and Ted the PR cover they need to shake things up. Ted set that standard 10 years ago.

I don't think any player movement happens before the Stadium Series ....but soon afterward, very possible.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Some of the Bears, particularly McMichael, are playing really well. They might get better after selling.

 

[twabby]

I’m bored now. Should Mac find the balls to be a seller…which of these players will actually be traded?

NAK
Eller
Hathaway
Mojo
Mantha
Jensen
Orlov
TVR
Irwin

Hathaway should be coveted around the league I reckon. Cheap, gritty, good depth player. Gustafsson is someone else I could see getting a lot of attention, especially at his cap hit. I suspect both could get at least second round picks. Those are guys I’d put high on the “sell” list.

Mojo I can see a case for re-signing. Same for TVR. Depends on their numbers. I don’t know that either gets a lot in a trade, but who knows.

Orlov and Jensen are the interesting ones. They can’t afford to lose either one for nothing, so hopefully contract demands from their agents are pretty much decided at this point. I can see both returning a first round pick or close. They can’t let that value go if they aren’t re-signed.

NAK, Eller, Irwin, and Mantha I could see no team being interested in. Maybe Eller with retention. Maybe Mantha with a pot sweetener.

 

[Langway]

Writing kind of on the wall here.

Gus probably only returns a third. Good player but he's bounced around a lot. Probably still not someone that would be trusted to play second pair minutes on a contender and not the strongest. NAK could draw a late pick from teams looking for depth grit. Eller maybe another mid-rounder since depth Cs are coveted. Sheary maybe the same. They'd need to open up the floor for offers on everyone more or less. Why the hell not?

 

[Pigskin]

I'm kinda wondering if FLA piling on another 4 goals or something in the 3rd period would help management figure it out

 

[g00n]

Writing kind of on the wall here.

Gus probably only returns a third. Good player but he's bounced around a lot. Probably still not someone that would be trusted to play second pair minutes on a contender and not the strongest. NAK could draw a late pick from teams looking for depth grit. Eller maybe another mid-rounder since depth Cs are coveted. Sheary maybe the same. They'd need to open up the floor for offers on everyone more or less. Why the hell not?

If they do flip the sell switch I put everyone but Ovie, Wilson, and possibly Orlov on the table, same as last offseason. Though I think Backstrom probably deserves a chance at a full season with his new hip.

 

[pman25]

The low cap hits we have for some of our guys should net us some 3rd rounders at least when a lot of contenders are already capped out.

I look at Edmonton. Make them send us Puljujarvi and a 2nd for Sheary/Hathaway. They already gotta pay to dump him anyway. And we get another young reclamation project player like Strome/Milano

They get a versatile winger and an agitator to fill out the bottom 6

 

[Langway]

If they do flip the sell switch I put everyone but Ovie, Wilson, and possibly Orlov on the table, same as last offseason. Though I think Backstrom probably deserves a chance at a full season with his new hip.

Backstrom's not going to get substantially better. He probably only gets worse. Ditto Carlson. The game has passed them by athletically and there's little to be done except put them in lesser roles. Maybe a long, full off-season allows Backstrom to strengthen his lower body for the first time in a while but he's got to balance not overdoing it. Given their apparent obligations to 19/74 (presumably) we can basically write off the remainder of Ovechkin's contract as far as true competitiveness goes. The only way to an ascending mix within that time is a later stage transition largely fueled by selling off, restructuring and managing to do very well drafting and developing the next couple years. You wonder if they have the patience and commitment for it. It seems at least just as likely they'll fast-track it and become firmly entrenched in the bubble.

When a team has the bus drivers everything else for a GM is relatively easy. It's just working the fringes. When you're trying to mask fading bus drivers it's just the opposite. It's upside down...a team in decline without developing secondary strengths. It's a lot of smoke and mirrors maintaining the pretense of competitiveness via strengthening the weakest links and building depth. Lavi's job isn't any easier but going forward a refresh is probably needed away from sheer competitiveness toward development/poise. Watching a team run around like their hair is on fire without chemistry or much execution isn't all that entertaining. That's at least in part on him, esp. given his track record. Going forward I don't think this approach is thoughtful enough nor athletically/mentally sustainable. He's a coach for a different, mostly younger team with more in the tank. Probably better for him if he does move on.

Otherwise they can even swap out Kuznetsov, dump Mantha, swap a lot of the secondary pieces at the deadline...but the declining core dynamic will still be there. The somewhat limited attention to detail will be there even if they manage to do pretty well building back the supporting cast. Without substantial ascending/tonesetting additions and more of an active approach to developing it's not a functional enough mix going forward. Not given what's likely to be even stiffer competition in the East. If they conclude it was just injuries catching up with them this season, don't look forward much, don't seriously re-assess much it's hard to like their chances.

As for Wilson, they can't go into next season without an extension I don't think. He can't be handled like Orlov/Jensen. Either they need to secure his services--and are presumably interested in doing so--or they need to move him. Given his value and notoriety league-wide it would be interesting what he'd fetch. I also think there's fair risk in extending him at a market premium rate in the event his production and durability decline. Not a deadline matter but an issue to potentially add to the pile this off-season. Of course, I don't doubt they do hold off and run the risk of losing him for nothing in a rush back toward competitiveness next season.

Of course, this is something of a premature postmortem. They're not dead yet. But unless Kuemper carries them I doubt this lineup has it in them.

 

[Peeri]

I'm in the boat that anyone not named Ovechkin should be on table. That won't happen, but just watching this core struggling on daily basis should ring the alarm bells at the office. None of these guys will be performing at their contract levels in the future. Also if they are so concerned with OV record they should give him a better chance at it by having better team around him. Win win.

 

[Roshi]

Losing Ovie for couple of weeks and losing 3 in a row pretty much baked the season. Too bad. Just cant see us going on some crazy run at this point as the team is just too broken and not feeling it up either.

Not giving up on the big picture. It sucks this season didnt pan out, but we should get back in the water next season and build for playoffs again. But for now… yeah, lets sell.

Realistically though its pretty much just Eller and Sheary. Gustafsson if they arent sure about extending. Hathaway or Johansson? So whats that, couple middle round picks. Hard to get excited with that. Maybe target some reclamation cases instead to give them some games and see if we could give it a go? Like Puljujarvi?

Mantha (and Kuzy) are too tough to move at the TDL and Jensen and Orlov are still likely keepers.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

This was published before last night’s game but the point is only reinforced by the loss to Florida. Caps should sell. The injuries coupled with regressions in finishing by some of their top players sunk the season. It’s just not working. If they hadn’t spent the season with half their cap on the injury list or if they were getting healthy I’d say they’d still have a puncher’s chance but they shouldn’t throw good money after bad trying to salvage something that probably isn’t there.

Why the Capitals Should Be Sellers

The Washington Capitals are in a position they have not been in a long time: potentially missing the playoffs. They are currently in a playoff spot, holding the second wild card spot, but it’s hard to…

www.japersrink.com

 

[trick9]

What a dud game. Poor basically all around and they couldn't challenge the Panthers at all 5-on-5.

Makes the decision to tinker atleast somewhat easier. Guys like Kuznetsov and Mantha should be on the table in the summer, right now i doubt many teams want to take on that kind of salary. Main thing should be to make the decision on who you are looking to keep next season. Eller is likely gone and they should look to trade him now and replace him with Protas as soon as Dowd is back. I don't think that makes the team worse. If they plan to move on from Sheary, he should return a pick, and can be replaced with a Hershey guy, like McMichael or someone else.

They should also make some decisions on D's if they plan to move on from someone. But those forward deals mentioned above should be rather easy ones. While they'll lack depth but they gain some picks back and the team doesn't get terribly worse because they have solid replacements. They maintain the chance to win a Playoff spot, even with those deals, IMO. That isn't the case if they move on from Orlov or Jensen, for example. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't atleast listen to offers on those too.

 

[g00n]

This was published before last night’s game but the point is only reinforced by the loss to Florida. Caps should sell. The injuries coupled with regressions in finishing by some of their top players sunk the season. It’s just not working. If they hadn’t spent the season with half their cap on the injury list or if they were getting healthy I’d say they’d still have a puncher’s chance but they shouldn’t throw good money after bad trying to salvage something that probably isn’t there.

Why the Capitals Should Be Sellers

The Washington Capitals are in a position they have not been in a long time: potentially missing the playoffs. They are currently in a playoff spot, holding the second wild card spot, but it’s hard to…

www.japersrink.com

I wonder where Japers got the idea to use that injury chart?

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

Moneypuck has Washington at a 47% chance of making the playoffs with a regulation win tonight. A loss in regulation drops them to 31%.

forums.hfboards.com

"sell, sell, sell"

LOL


which one of you is "Luke"?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I wonder where Japers got the idea to use that injury chart?

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

Moneypuck has Washington at a 47% chance of making the playoffs with a regulation win tonight. A loss in regulation drops them to 31%.

forums.hfboards.com

View attachment 651703

"sell, sell, sell"

LOL


which one of you is "Luke"?

Not I, though we do follow each other on Twitter I think.

There are some smart people on these boards so it's not surprising a lot of things that are proposed or discussed here are repackaged on official accounts. I don't think it's a very well kept secret that people in hockey -- players, agents, reporters, bloggers, and management, both current and former -- check in and at times post on HF.

That's not to say I am accusing Luke of "taking" material from here for his post. I think he and Japers Rink collectively are the best around in terms of Caps analysis and commentary and they provide a lot of original content.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Backstrom's not going to get substantially better. He probably only gets worse. Ditto Carlson. The game has passed them by athletically and there's little to be done except put them in lesser roles. Maybe a long, full off-season allows Backstrom to strengthen his lower body for the first time in a while but he's got to balance not overdoing it. Given their apparent obligations to 19/74 (presumably) we can basically write off the remainder of Ovechkin's contract as far as true competitiveness goes. The only way to an ascending mix within that time is a later stage transition largely fueled by selling off, restructuring and managing to do very well drafting and developing the next couple years. You wonder if they have the patience and commitment for it. It seems at least just as likely they'll fast-track it and become firmly entrenched in the bubble.

When a team has the bus drivers everything else for a GM is relatively easy. It's just working the fringes. When you're trying to mask fading bus drivers it's just the opposite. It's upside down...a team in decline without developing secondary strengths. It's a lot of smoke and mirrors maintaining the pretense of competitiveness via strengthening the weakest links and building depth. Lavi's job isn't any easier but going forward a refresh is probably needed away from sheer competitiveness toward development/poise. Watching a team run around like their hair is on fire without chemistry or much execution isn't all that entertaining. That's at least in part on him, esp. given his track record. Going forward I don't think this approach is thoughtful enough nor athletically/mentally sustainable. He's a coach for a different, mostly younger team with more in the tank. Probably better for him if he does move on.

Otherwise they can even swap out Kuznetsov, dump Mantha, swap a lot of the secondary pieces at the deadline...but the declining core dynamic will still be there. The somewhat limited attention to detail will be there even if they manage to do pretty well building back the supporting cast. Without substantial ascending/tonesetting additions and more of an active approach to developing it's not a functional enough mix going forward. Not given what's likely to be even stiffer competition in the East. If they conclude it was just injuries catching up with them this season, don't look forward much, don't seriously re-assess much it's hard to like their chances.

As for Wilson, they can't go into next season without an extension I don't think. He can't be handled like Orlov/Jensen. Either they need to secure his services--and are presumably interested in doing so--or they need to move him. Given his value and notoriety league-wide it would be interesting what he'd fetch. I also think there's fair risk in extending him at a market premium rate in the event his production and durability decline. Not a deadline matter but an issue to potentially add to the pile this off-season. Of course, I don't doubt they do hold off and run the risk of losing him for nothing in a rush back toward competitiveness next season.

Of course, this is something of a premature postmortem. They're not dead yet. But unless Kuemper carries them I doubt this lineup has it in them.

Unfortunately, making any decision on extending Wilson is nearly impossible right now given the ongoing injury issues.

 

[twabby]

Could the Caps sell on Dmitry Orlov?​

The Capitals have had contract talks with pending UFA Dmitry Orlov, but it sounds like term is a significant issue. Unless one side or the other softens, there won’t be an extension any time soon.

The 31-year-old, top-four defenseman is in the last season of a six-year deal carrying a $5.1 million average annual value.

I haven’t heard his name mentioned anywhere in trade talks because I don’t believe that’s something the Caps are trying to push out there. They’re focused on making the playoffs and want him part of it.

But I also think Caps GM Brian MacLellan is closely assessing his team leading up to March 3 and will make his buying/selling decision based on where the team is in the standings and how it’s trending. Are they a team headed in the right direction? Are they finally healthy? Or should they listen, last minute, on a guy like Orlov, if it looks like they’re first-round fodder?

Tough call. I’m not sure it will be much clearer March 3, either.

Right now, I think the Caps would rather add. They have battled through injury adversity to be where they are, with a chance to make the playoffs.

Still, if Columbus is successful in its bid to get a first-round pick plus another asset for pending UFA Vladislav Gavrikov, I would imagine the bar would be tangibly higher for a guy like Orlov.

I don’t think they can hold onto Orlov past the TDL without a contract agreed to at least in principle. It would be malpractice given the likely return.

Also they need to push Orlov’s name out there. If LeBrun is correct and they’re not even gauging the market then that’s bad!

 

[g00n]

Not I, though we do follow each other on Twitter I think.

There are some smart people on these boards so it's not surprising a lot of things that are proposed or discussed here are repackaged on official accounts. I don't think it's a very well kept secret that people in hockey -- players, agents, reporters, bloggers, and management, both current and former -- check in and at times post on HF.

That's not to say I am accusing Luke of "taking" material from here for his post. I think he and Japers Rink collectively are the best around in terms of Caps analysis and commentary and they provide a lot of original content.

Not my content and not really stealing. I know we have eyes on us. I just thought it was funny

Party on, Luke...wherever you are

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I wonder where Japers got the idea to use that injury chart?

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

Moneypuck has Washington at a 47% chance of making the playoffs with a regulation win tonight. A loss in regulation drops them to 31%.

forums.hfboards.com

View attachment 651703

"sell, sell, sell"

LOL


which one of you is "Luke"?

Not the first thing I’ve seen “lifted” from here…..

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Not my content and not really stealing. I know we have eyes on us. I just thought it was funny

Party on, Luke...wherever you are

It is funny. For all the ranting and raving on here there’s also some great content.