Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

Peter Laviolette calls Caps performance against Florida ‘not good.’ Dylan Strome thinks team may need to win 17 of 25 games to make playoffs.

Coming into Thursday night's game just barely holding onto a playoff spot, the Washington Capitals needed a big win–both to hold onto…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

68% points percentage needed according to Lavi (edit: actually Strome, though I'm guessing he got the 17 out of 25 games number from the coaches)

I said last night the loss moved them to 70-75% needed, so that "15, 16, 17" range may even be optimistic,

They're not winning 17 of the next 25 if they play like they did vs FLA.

 

[hb13xchamps]

I don’t think Kuznetsov’s contract is unmovable. He’ll only have two years remaining on his deal after this year and his cap hit is $7.8 million. Teams would take a shot at a potential 1C and I’m sure some GMs could convince themselves that he could round back into SC level Kuznetsov.

 

[Misery74]

This is our home record since 1/1/23:

1/3: Buffalo 5-4 OTL
1/6: Nashville 3-2 L
1/8: CBJ 1-0 W
1/14: Philly 3-1 L
1/17: Minnesota 4-2 L
1/26: Pittsburgh 3-2 SOW
2/12: San Jose 4-1 L
2/14: Carolina 3-2 L
2/16: Florida 6-3 L

Out of 18 possible points, we got 5. We are absolute garbage at home, where we have the last change.

What is the downside in bringing in Nelson as the interim? Maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle.

It’s also time to let the kids play. Playing McIlrath does nothing for this organization.

 

[895]

Have you seen the 8x8 deals GMs have been handing out lately? 8 mil is average second line centre money.

Kuznetsov, at his current salary, is not overpaid. Yeah he could be doing much better, but in terms of being albatross there are much bigger problems on this team.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t think Kuznetsov’s contract is unmovable. He’ll only have two years remaining on his deal after this year and his cap hit is $7.8 million. Teams would take a shot at a potential 1C and I’m sure some GMs could convince themselves that he could round back into SC level Kuznetsov.

I think he’s definitely moveable…..make a hockey trade GMBM….

Have you seen the 8x8 deals GMs have been handing out lately? 8 mil is average second line centre money.

Kuznetsov, at his current salary, is not overpaid. Yeah he could be doing much better, but in terms of being albatross there are much bigger problems on this team.

He’s terribly overpaid as someone already posted in an analysis of salary vs performance.

I know you’re a fan of this dude more than many are….but how do you keep supporting that effort?

He is embarrassing. His lack of heart and effort epitomizes a massive problem on this team.

 

[895]

I think he’s definitely moveable…..make a hockey trade GMBM….


He’s terribly overpaid as someone already posted in an analysis of salary vs performance.

I know you’re a fan of this dude more than many are….but how do you keep supporting that effort?

He is embarrassing. His lack of heart and effort epitomizes a massive problem on this team.

Yeah it sucks that he decided to not care so much. That's why it's frustrating. He could be so much better.


But that doesn't change the fact that getting rid of kuzy's 7.8m cap hit would not get us a better player on the open market. In a trade maybe, but then you're giving up assets the other way.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

f***ing ridiculous. He's our best defender and is still actually performing. Has been a core player for the better part of a decade and on this team for more than ten years. Has more than paid his dues and his current performances still back it up.

Just give him term and lower the cap hit. We have with many other players in similar situations.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah it sucks that he decided to not care so much. That's why it's frustrating. He could be so much better.


But that doesn't change the fact that getting rid of kuzy's 7.8m cap hit would not get us a better player on the open market. In a trade maybe, but then you're giving up assets the other way.

We don’t have to directly get a better player. His type of malaise eats away at the core of a team….

I bet he’s asking for like 7+….maybe more? Maybe an 8 year deal to carry him to retirement?

 

[895]

Without seeing the actual numbers on cap hit and term, it's impossible to tell who's being unreasonable in this situation.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/nhl-trade-deadline-what-should-each-contender-do-with-their-first-rounder

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Orlov wants term. In the past, he has spoken about the importance of comfortability and security with respect to being able to live comfortably and not worry about being moved or have to pack your bags and change cities. He has mentioned how ecstatic he was to get his first long-term extension because he could move out of a rental and buy his own property in the DMV. If they give him term, I can absolutely see him taking a discount, thus lowering his cap hit. He should be a Caps lifer. He wants to be here.

 

[Misery74]

Orlov wants term. In the past, he has spoken about the importance of comfortability and security with respect to being able to live comfortably and not worry about being moved or have to pack your bags and change cities. He has mentioned how ecstatic he was to get his first long-term extension because he could move out of a rental and buy his own property in the DMV. If they give him term, I can absolutely see him taking a discount, thus lowering his cap hit. He should be a Caps lifer. He wants to be here.

His agent is probably advising him that this is his last big payday. He should take it.

We simply cannot afford any more Caps lifers until we get rid of some of the ones we have already signed.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Yeah it sucks that he decided to not care so much. That's why it's frustrating. He could be so much better.


But that doesn't change the fact that getting rid of kuzy's 7.8m cap hit would not get us a better player on the open market. In a trade maybe, but then you're giving up assets the other way.

Maybe getting rid of $7.8M doesn’t get you a better player on the open market but it's worth parting with assets to make the team better. Also, getting rid of Eller and Kuznetsov this summer nets you $11.3M and that’s a Dylan Larkin on the open market plus about $2M in left over cap space; moves don't need to be made in a vacuum.

Kuznetsov is pretty overpaid for what he brings to the table at the moment. He has the 23rd highest cap hit in the league among centers but is performing as a mid to lower tier 3C, Backstrom is a 4C on 1C money, and Eller is a replacement level player on 3C money. They make $20.5M collectively and they're mostly garbage. Dylan Strome and Nic Dowd are the best centers on this team right now and they're collectively under contract next season for less than what Kuznetsov will make.

All that said, the biggest issue on this roster is Backstrom. He's barely passable as a 3rd line center and he has the 10th highest cap hit in the league at his position. If you subbed out Backstrom and his $9.2M cap hit with Larkin or another $9M center then Kuznetsov isn't as glaring an issue. Sub out Backstrom with Zibanejad or Brayden Point or Tomas Hertl or Crosby or Jack Hughes and get actual value from that contract and this is a drastically different team with a lot more options. Even if you sub out Backstrom with McMichael or Protas and then use the $9M on a winger then that's Timo Meier money and this team is much more competitive.

Sucks to say but Backstrom coming back was and is the worst thing that could have happened to this franchise in the short and medium term. Hopefully he can continue his recovery and at least become a 2/3C tweener. He's essentially Jay Beagle making more annually than Sidney Crosby, and honestly Beagle in his last season here was probably better.

 

[twabby]

Washington needs to prioritize reshaping their roster down the middle. They have Strome and Dowd signed next year, and those two guys should be pretty good 2C and 4C pieces. But they are severely lacking at 1C and 3C.

Backstrom can't block Protas or McMichael from being in the lineup next year at center (ideally 3C). I love Backstrom but injuries have killed his career and I agree with @AlexBrovechkin8 , his presence in the lineup is the biggest hindrance on the team being competitive again.

I have no idea how they address their 1C spot, but Kuznetsov isn't it and they need to move on from him. I'll believe Larkin is available as a UFA when I see it. All indications are that he is going to re-sign in Detroit and it's just a matter of hammering down contract details. Pierre-Luc Dubois from all indications just wants to play in Montreal. Those are the two guys that originally stuck out as potentially being available that could fill the 1C spot.

I still think they need to potentially look at next season as a year to take a step back before reloading for 2024-25. Give McMichael, Lapierre, Protas, Iorio, and guys like that big NHL minutes for the entire year so they can make informed decisions for the following season.

 

[Marshall]

If Orlov wants 6, 7, or 8 years, move him.

(For the record, I don't blame Orlov at all - get that money when you can, young man.)

 

[crazy8888]

If Orlov wants 6, 7, or 8 years, move him.

(For the record, I don't blame Orlov at all - get that money when you can, young man.)

Why though? If he is willing to sign for a reasonable amount who cares about the term. The lower the cap the easier he will be to trade should a need come. For now you are getting a good defenseman for at least 3,4 or maybe 5-6 more years. History says he is durable and from all accounts loyal to the team and wants to stay here.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Why though? If he is willing to sign for a reasonable amount who cares about the term. The lower the cap the easier he will be to trade should a need come. For now you are getting a good defenseman for at least 3,4 or maybe 5-6 more years. History says he is durable and from all accounts loyal to the team and wants to stay here.

Frankly, I struggle to make a good business case for bringing back Orlov, particularly if Jensen is resigned. Orlov’ s performance has noticeably declined and his likely quest for one last big payday makes bringing him back a risky proposition at best.

 

[crazy8888]

Frankly, I struggle to make a good business case for bringing back Orlov, particularly if Jensen is resigned. Orlov’ s performance has noticeably declined and his likely quest for one last big payday makes bringing him back a risky proposition at best.

Hence why i specifically said for reasonable salary. I said the term does not concern me as much as the salary.
I agree that he should seek his big pay day elsewhere. But on a team friendly deal, why not give him the few extra years he is asking for?

 

[g00n]

If people didn't want Oshie, NB, and Carlson signed to long term deals there's no way they should want Orlov to do the same, and that's undoubtedly what Orlov is looking at. He wants contracts to take him through 36-38yrs old like those other guys.

 

[Langway]

Hard to haggle at the end of the day on term, though, if they don't want to risk a step back next season. You can't worry that much about reaching a longer-term critical mass on term on the books and spite their chances of being competitive next season in the process. It is what it is. If they need to redefine where the line is and what's most essential then ship out Kuznetsov if need be. Orlov leaves and what's the answer at LD? There's not much sturdy available in UFA among LD that can slide into that role. They could go with something much softer like Gus & Gostisbehere but that won't get it done. Fehervary isn't ready. Trading for an Edmundson or some other replacement is likely to be equally costly in assets compared to what 9 would return at the deadline.

Maybe they could pry McDonagh out of Nashville or something at value but if cheap acquisition costs are the target it's likely to carry an element of risk. I suspect they buckle and come to terms. It's Jensen I wonder about more.

 

[g00n]

Hard to haggle at the end of the day on term, though, if they don't want to risk a step back next season. You can't worry that much about reaching a longer-term critical mass on term on the books and spite their chances of being competitive next season in the process. It is what it is. If they need to redefine where the line is and what's most essential then ship out Kuznetsov if need be. Orlov leaves and what's the answer at LD? There's not much sturdy available in UFA among LD that can slide into that role. They could go with something much softer like Gus & Gostisbehere but that won't get it done. Fehervary isn't ready. Trading for an Edmundson or some other replacement is likely to be equally costly in assets compared to what 9 would return at the deadline.

Maybe they could pry McDonagh out of Nashville or something at value but if cheap acquisition costs are the target it's likely to carry an element of risk. I suspect they buckle and come to terms. It's Jensen I wonder about more.

Does this logic apply to Gmbm and all the other long term deals everyone here hated at the time?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Not a capologist and don't know the terms of the CBA on this situation, but Hagelin being on LTIR, can his contract be traded to a team that's up against the cap so that the team acquiring Hagelin could then use his LTIR status to go over the cap?

 

[Raikkonen]

Not a capologist and don't know the terms of the CBA on this situation, but Hagelin being on LTIR, can his contract be traded to a team that's up against the cap so that the team acquiring Hagelin could then use his LTIR status to go over the cap?

what for?

 

[pman25]

Not a capologist and don't know the terms of the CBA on this situation, but Hagelin being on LTIR, can his contract be traded to a team that's up against the cap so that the team acquiring Hagelin could then use his LTIR status to go over the cap?

I don’t think it really works like that, trading him to a cap team would offer them no benefit, unless another capologist person can explain it. LTIR contracts are generally more valuable to floor teams like Arizona