Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[caps4cup]

Because his underlying numbers were garbage the last two years.

He had the best xG% out of any regular forward that was on the team for both the 19/20 and 20/21 seasons. And was by far the best in 20/21, besides Mantha who only played 14 games.

Eller was awful last season, but he was pretty damn good the 3 years prior to go with strong underlyings.

 

[zappa4ever]

I had to listen to the game on the radio, so I didn't see it. But it sounded like CMM got plenty of opportunities to earn a spot but failed to impress (again)?

Only noticed a cpl good plays from him, a nice poke check, not much else
1 for 7 faceoffs and 2 shots
Nothing saying "there's no way we can send this guy down"
maybe he shows more gms 5+6 if he's in

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not what you want to see from CMM…..

 

[Rayquaza64]

game 5 and 6 will be big for all our guys who are on the fringe of making the roster

 

[DWGie26]

Going to need these next two games to sort some things out. In terms of prospects/those fighting for a spot, I’d like to see the following play in the next two games

F: Protas, Snively, CMM, Beck, AJF, Leason - i think Snively and Mojo are locks for roster.
D: Gus, Nardella, Johanson

I’d send Lappy, Iorio, Carlsson, Irwin (two-way), McIlrath down Today so they can be in Hershey camp from jump.

 

[traparatus]

I'll again reiterate that with such a meat and potatoes approach offensively with such prominence given to activating D upgrading the 1LD spot is the easiest route to near-term contention. Easier said than done, of course. I don't know if that's Chychrun with his injury history but something along those lines. Perhaps Sanheim, though I'm not sure he quite meets the mark needed.

They could use more star potential up front obviously but then I'm not sure it would be maximized. A Patrick Kane type talent would still do his thing regardless but stars with swag on that level are rare. The cookie-cutterness up front is I think an issue without an easy answer. The work ethic of Brown & Protas can help. Strome can bring some balance. But I don't know if the front office is selective enough getting that mix right. The current mix is fine but they look to need more of a slippery element that's hard to figure where it'll come from.

I'm with you regarding defense. As I see it, there are two ways to win in the playoffs. Either your best players have to, at the very least, match their best players or you suffocate the opponent defensively and turn the game into a coin flip.

The first way isn't going to happen. We simply don't have the top-6 to match up with cup contenders. On top of that, two of our core players in Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are not particularly good at playing sustained zone offense and rely heavily on the rush. Eller's ability to maintain control of the puck in the ofensive zone also seems to have evaporated.

The defensive way was not possible until this season because a team cannot play stifling defense with two sieves in net. This season we finally have some goaltending. I say let's trap the hell out of it and go back to relying on opportunistic, off-the-rush offense. Get Carlson a decent partner, bump Fehervary down to the 3rd pair and trap, trap, trap.

 

[DWGie26]

I'm with you regarding defense. As I see it, there are two ways to win in the playoffs. Either your best players have to, at the very least, match their best players or you suffocate the opponent defensively and turn the game into a coin flip.

The first way isn't going to happen. We simply don't have the top-6 to match up with cup contenders. On top of that, two of our core players in Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are not particularly good at playing sustained zone offense and rely heavily on the rush. Eller's ability to maintain control of the puck in the ofensive zone also seems to have evaporated.

The defensive way was not possible until this season because a team cannot play stifling defense with two sieves in net. This season we finally have some goaltending. I say let's trap the hell out of it and go back to relying on opportunistic, off-the-rush offense. Get Carlson a decent partner, bump Fehervary down to the 3rd pair and trap, trap, trap.

Hence your name traparatus. Haha.

But your point is very valid. Goaltending and opportunitstic offense (created by trapping) is they key.

 

[zappa4ever]

Seems like 10 starting FWDs are etched in stone with 5 of 6 D settled, Gs settled

OV - Kuz - Brown
Sheary - Strome - Martha
_____ - Eller - Oshie
_____ - Dowd - Hathaway

[MarJo/McMic/Snively/Protas/AJF/Leason/Malenstyn]

Fever - Carlson
Orolv - Jensen
______ - TVR

[Gustafsson/Irwin/McIlrath/LuJo/Carlsson/Iorio/Nardella/Alexeyev]

Guess we're gonna learn a lot in gms 5+6 on what the coaches see in the glut of players fighting for 3 starting positions

Sure seems like Protas is the only FWD that is forcing the issue

on D I've been impressed the young bucks LuJo/Iorio/Nardella (although Iorio had a cpl bad breakout passes v CBJ), heck all the D have looked at least OK and most look ready for 3rd pair minutes

 

[Langway]

The defensive way was not possible until this season because a team cannot play stifling defense with two sieves in net. This season we finally have some goaltending. I say let's trap the hell out of it and go back to relying on opportunistic, off-the-rush offense. Get Carlson a decent partner, bump Fehervary down to the 3rd pair and trap, trap, trap.

The main issue is I'm not sure they're explosive enough to counter effectively. It's largely what they tried against Florida and it worked mainly in slowing them down and less so in generating counter chances. They seem to get them more often off of failed transition from the opposition rather than pouncing on neutral zone errors. If they were smarter maybe it could still work but away from the puck they don't read off of each other well enough typically to anticipate those scenarios better to where explosiveness is less necessary. So it's the combination of sense and physical limitations. I wouldn't expect Ovechkin, Oshie, Eller & Mantha to provide much in that regard. Maybe Brown & Protas can help a bit due to pressure/engagement but overall the lack of explosive pace still looks to be an issue. Johansson has some but he's mostly a flimsy player so its impact is muted.

Beefing up the defense further mostly would help with their in-zone rotations so that they're not relying on a Fehervary or TVR to create or produce. Gustafsson being that guy is probably not going to cut it.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[traparatus]

The main issue is I'm not sure they're explosive enough to counter effectively. It's largely what they tried against Florida and it worked mainly in slowing them down and less so in generating counter chances. They seem to get them more often off of failed transition from the opposition rather than pouncing on neutral zone errors. If they were smarter maybe it could still work but away from the puck they don't read off of each other well enough typically to anticipate those scenarios better to where explosiveness is less necessary. So it's the combination of sense and physical limitations. I wouldn't expect Ovechkin, Oshie, Eller & Mantha to provide much in that regard. Maybe Brown & Protas can help a bit due to pressure/engagement but overall the lack of explosive pace still looks to be an issue. Johansson has some but he's mostly a flimsy player so its impact is muted.

Beefing up the defense further mostly would help with their in-zone rotations so that they're not relying on a Fehervary or TVR to create or produce. Gustafsson being that guy is probably not going to cut it.

I think they still have the players for an effective counter-attack. Not to the point of winning the Cup or anything but enough to win a round. Going back to Florida series, they got in trouble when trying to maintain offensive zone possession. Some extra dumb decisions from Carlson come to mind. When majority of the game was spent in the neutral zone, Caps were doing shockingly well.

With Backstrom down and out, Ovechkin and Kuznetsov ARE the top-6. Everybody else in there is complementary at best or shouldn't be there at the worst. Can those two play effective in-zone offense? IMO, it's a hard no.

The irony of it is, when Trotz was implementing a turtling, counter attacking style, I tought we had the personnel to play an offensive possession game. Clearly, he was onto something. Now Laviolette is all about maintaining offensive zone control and I don't think we have the players to do it.

 

[swansonsays]

Hershey released their training camp roster earlier. Interestingly, the numbers that AJF, CMM, & Leason have worn in Hershey were all reassigned, while numbers worn by LuJo, Snively, & Protas were not. Numbers up to 48 were assigned, skipping 5, 21, & 40. Could be nothing, or maybe it's a sneak peak at guys who might be sent down versus guys who won't.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Anybody else catch the visor attachment on Fucales helmet? Don't think I've ever seen anybody use one of those before. Managed to catch a screenshot of it. Thought I was crazy the first preseason game when I caught a glimpse. Seen him play a ton in Hershey and never noticed it there, something new he's trying?

 

[Langway]

Hershey released their training camp roster earlier. Interestingly, the numbers that AJF, CMM, & Leason have worn in Hershey were all reassigned, while numbers worn by LuJo, Snively, & Protas were not. Numbers up to 48 were assigned, skipping 5, 21, & 40. Could be nothing, or maybe it's a sneak peak at guys who might be sent down versus guys who won't.

Interesting. I'd be surprised if this ends up being the outcome. I don't think it's all 100% settled yet and if anything the three that didn't have their numbers reassigned seem more likely to make the Caps initially.

 

[hb13xchamps]

I’ve barely watched preseason games but how is Kody Clark still on the roster over a few other guys? Did he get hurt?

Edit: appears he hasn’t played in a game yet this preseason but isn’t listed as injured like the other guys with known injuries. Interesting. Anyone know if he is at least practicing?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Interesting. I'd be surprised if this ends up being the outcome. I don't think it's all 100% settled yet and if anything the three that didn't have their numbers reassigned seem more likely to make the Caps initially.

I don’t think it much matters. But who knows?

Wouldn’t think any of them are for the duration as it is. I suppose it’s possible. But doubtful

 

[DWGie26]

Hershey released their training camp roster earlier. Interestingly, the numbers that AJF, CMM, & Leason have worn in Hershey were all reassigned, while numbers worn by LuJo, Snively, & Protas were not. Numbers up to 48 were assigned, skipping 5, 21, & 40. Could be nothing, or maybe it's a sneak peak at guys who might be sent down versus guys who won't.

That was probably done before camp. Expected CMM to stay in Washington and didn’t expect Protas to be in the conversation. I wouldn’t read into it.

 

[John Price]

with baseball season essentially over and the football team playing like shit wednesday can't get here soon enough

 

[twabby]

2022-2023 Season Preview

Visualizations and predictions for understanding hockey.

hockeyviz.com

Hockeyviz is considerably stronger on Washington this year than other models and the pundits:

The metropolitan division is considerably tighter at the top than at the bottom. Columbus picking up Johnny Gaudreau helps them considerably but the remainder of the roster being as it is leaves them in the dregs of the division, alongside Philadelphia. The capitals upgraded considerably in goal by acquiring Darcy Kuemper, but otherwise will win games primarily off the back of their very strong 5v5 and 5v4 defence. The Rangers have exceptionally strong goaltending but will struggle for stretches to generate even-strength chances.

It’s a reasonable prediction. They had maybe the worst goaltending among playoff teams last year yet still made it comfortably, and now they have arguably a top 5 goaltender in the league. That should be worth a lot.

 

[twabby]

Meanwhile, Evolving Hockey is a bit lower on Washington but still has them in a playoff position (though in a dead heat with PIT/NYR and NJ ahead of them)

 

[Langway]

Projected to have the fourth-best goaltending in the East behind TBL/NYR/NYI in Micah's model. Finishing rating below setting seems a bit counterintuitive.

Hard to quite buy into the Caps being better than CAR/NYR but you never know. Structure/defense can account for a lot but it's hard to stick to it for 82 games, esp. for them. The potential is there. Depth is improving. I mostly wonder about lulls/consistency/sense and injuries. Their baseline is probably sturdier than most but they've got to avoid letdowns. Better goaltending should help but hopefully they don't become overly reliant on it either.

Big pass on NJD being that good or NYR missing the playoffs. Hard to believe STL is worse than VAN. VGK/BOS also seem pretty rich. FLA under Maurice will be one of the more interesting new combinations. Hard to know what that's going to be like.

 

[pman25]

Makes sense the model may not like NYR as much with their team being entirely propped up by Shesterkin + Powerplay. That team made way too many timely saves and goals as well. It won’t hold but probably still good enough for the playoffs

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Projected to have the fourth-best goaltending in the East behind TBL/NYR/NYI in Micah's model. Finishing rating below setting seems a bit counterintuitive.

Hard to quite buy into the Caps being better than CAR/NYR but you never know. Structure/defense can account for a lot but it's hard to stick to it for 82 games, esp. for them. The potential is there. Depth is improving. I mostly wonder about lulls/consistency/sense and injuries. Their baseline is probably sturdier than most but they've got to avoid letdowns. Better goaltending should help but hopefully they don't become overly reliant on it either.

Big pass on NJD being that good or NYR missing the playoffs. Hard to believe STL is worse than VAN. VGK/BOS also seem pretty rich. FLA under Maurice will be one of the more interesting new combinations. Hard to know what that's going to be like.

The Rangers were an awful hockey team until the trade deadline. I don’t think people talked enough about the historically good season that Shesterkin had as the Rangers were bottom 5-7 in most metrics. They improved after the deadline with some savvy acquisitions to bolster depth but they lost some of that this summer and their main signing was Trochek who is on the downswing. I think their run of success in the playoffs was more about luck and being able to play third string goalies than it was about what the Rangers did.

They certainly have room to improve and they have some young talent that could take big steps up in their development but I don’t see the Cup contender everyone is clamoring over.

 

[Langway]

Forward depth is NYR's biggest issue for the moment but should be fairly easy to address and it's largely just a pretty poor fourth line. Their high-end forwards, D & G are all more than adequate. They were a poor possession team but did seem to make some strides in the playoffs I thought. They weren't just hot or hanging on so much. Miller has all the tools to be a star and is the key. It's just a matter of putting it all together. I don't know about Cup contender either per se due to their mid-range forward depth. The kid line will need to improve even more to get into that range. But they've got a relatively high floor unless Igor falls off and the very top of the East isn't what it was.

Tampa's defense is weaker minus McDonagh. Who knows what Toronto gets from Spinny & Murray. Florida is thinner. Boston older and banged up. You'd think Toronto is now the team to beat but that's still a team that hasn't gotten out of the first round yet. So in some ways the East is almost tailor-made for a structured sort of team to walk through. But that could just as easily be Carolina. More than most years this seems like a wide open year where the trade deadline could be key.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Meanwhile, Evolving Hockey is a bit lower on Washington but still has them in a playoff position (though in a dead heat with PIT/NYR and NJ ahead of them)

Ohhhh...this is going to annoy some Caps fans hoping for a flop....