Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[AlexModvechkin8]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

 

[g00n]

OTOH

Depends on your definition of 2nd line or 3rd line

 

[Serial_Derecho]

Seems rather logical that Strome/Mantha would be on line 2. Personally, Id swap Sheary and MoJo, (or add Protas instead of MoJo), but otherwise, Im happy with those lines. Has the potential to be a deep group of forwards when Wilson gets back.

 

[twabby]

JFresh also tentatively has Washington winning the division.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Canes wont come in 4th lol

 

[IafrateOvie34]

JFresh also tentatively has Washington winning the division.

I have the Caps doing great things this year. They may be old, but I still believe they have some gas left.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Canes wont come in 4th lol

I agree. I personally believe it will be the Canes or Caps for top two in the division. The Bruins, Leafs, and Rangers I expect will drop off. For the Ranger it all depends if they get that epic goaltending again. Ottawa will surprise a few fans and make a push.

 

[Langway]

JFresh also tentatively has Washington winning the division.

NYI so high is weird. They did nothing up front to add scoring. Romanov and the coaching change won't solve it.

LA seems low.

 

[twabby]

I think it's a good approach to build a model and not alter the entire thing in order to fit teams you might personally disagree with. Otherwise I'm sure you'd get other and even more wacky results, at which point you're just guessing.

 

[RedRocking]

I think it's a good approach to build a model and not alter the entire thing in order to fit teams you might personally disagree with. Otherwise I'm sure you'd get other and even more wacky results, at which point you're just guessing.

Otherwise known as sports prognostication. The analytics are just another form of guessing.

Here are some numbers, that I find more interesting, even if it’s mostly a measure of public perception. Still, Vegas has their numbers guys, and needs these odds to be somewhat right:

To win the Metro:
- CAR +175
- NYR +325
- PIT +350
- WSH +600
- NYI +650

Seems Vegas views us as barely a WC team (4th longest in Atlantic is BOS at +800, other three no lower than +225).

Seems more in line with most of the press, I suppose. Hope our guys prove them all wrong.

 

[Capsman]

I wouldnt send CMM to the AHL. Let hom practice with the NHL players

I’m not sure that served him well last season. I think he needs lots of game action to regain his confidence.

 

[twabby]

Otherwise known as sports prognostication. The analytics are just another form of guessing.

Here are some numbers, that I find more interesting, even if it’s mostly a measure of public perception. Still, Vegas has their numbers guys, and needs these odds to be somewhat right:

To win the Metro:
- CAR +175
- NYR +325
- PIT +350
- WSH +600
- NYI +650

Seems Vegas views us as barely a WC team (4th longest in Atlantic is BOS at +800, other three no lower than +225).

Seems more in line with most of the press, I suppose. Hope our guys prove them all wrong.

They don’t need the odds to be correct. They need the odds to reflect betting patterns such that they make money.

 

[RedRocking]

They don’t need the odds to be correct. They need the odds to reflect betting patterns so that they make the most money.

Sure, obviously. As I said, it’s mostly a measure of public perception, but it’s still against what their own analytical models are telling them, so they can make that money. And they often nail things like o/u’s and spreads - they’ve been at this a long time.

As for betting patterns - The NY teams get a flood of public money (like always), as do the Caps to some extent (since people know Ovechkin, and they’ve won it so many times) making their odds a little shorter than they should be. But even with the over pricing of NYR, they’re still really afraid of CAR, a small market team, winning - which tells me that that is where the sharps’ money is at.

In any event, my larger point is that all the preseason predictions are guesses. And I, personally, just find these more interesting and extrapolate them in my own way, just as you do with the analytics.

I hope the model that has us finishing first is closer to being right, and I honestly appreciate you sharing that info, as always. Just having a little fun with it, is all

 

[YippieKaey]

JFresh also tentatively has Washington winning the division.

This model doesn't account for injuries. And since we're the oldest team in the league it's unrepresentative of reality. Unfortunately we won't even make the playoffs this year.

You heard it here first.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This model doesn't account for injuries. And since we're the oldest team in the league it's unrepresentative of reality. Unfortunately we won't even make the playoffs this year.

You heard it here first.

That’ll be a prediction you can be proud of if it comes true lol…..

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Ohhhh...this is going to annoy some Caps fans hoping for a flop....

Bedard though.

This model doesn't account for injuries. And since we're the oldest team in the league it's unrepresentative of reality. Unfortunately we won't even make the playoffs this year.

You heard it here first.

I tend to be the mayor of negative town but you might have me beat in this case.

 

[YippieKaey]

That’ll be a prediction you can be proud of if it comes true lol…..

Pride probably won't be the predominant feeling.

Bedard though.


I tend to be the mayor of negative town but you might have me beat in this case.

Does that make me the governor?

 

[895]

I never thought I would say this but I think I hate mojo. Not personally obviously just that he's on the team.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[zappa4ever]

only changes from yesterday are flipping Marge and McMic

 

[Raikkonen]

get your shirt together guys
if MOJO is looking better than cmm, why not?

 

[HecticGlow]

CMM wasn’t ready last year. It’s not like an EA game where guys can be judged on their overall rating - his possession might have been good but his finishing wasn’t, he needs to become faster, and he needs to be more consistent.

I’d rather he work out those kinks playing 20 mins a game in Hershey than 8 minutes a game in Washington, and sadly it doesn’t feel like he’s going to get much more than that still. He also should be playing at center, not wing.

Send CMM down for quality minutes, and rotate Protas and Snively (if he’s looked good) at 3/4LW.

Assuming Wilson is back during the year and Backstrom doesn’t return until nearer the playoffs, CMM I likely to get squeezed out anyway. Better to get him AHL reps while he can, no?

 

[Langway]

I think there's also benefit to CMM & Lapierre both playing center together in Hershey. That can fundamentally change the look of that team and provide a glimpse perhaps into the future of the position. Hard to believe Protas hasn't earned a spot. These last two games feel like tests for not just CMM but perhaps some vets to not get too comfy in having a spot at the moment.

I'm a lot more concerned about Gustafsson than Johansson. Gustafsson seems a lot more likely to cost them points outright, esp. if Johansson's minutes are kept down somewhat and he's at least not acting as 1RW filler.

 

[g00n]

Some guys just never get much better. Remember how many prospects we overvalued during the rebuild? Guys like Pettinger and Sutherby who were "the next generation" for a while but ultimately ended up being JAGs?

Even Zubrus seemed to have a lot of potential but never really developed that much. Lack of finishing skills appears to be something you don't just shake off or grow out of.

There likely isn't some switch that gets flipped on a borderline-healthy-scratch guy that turns him into a stud. You have to see some serious incremental progress. That usually comes from offseason training, as it did with Wilson.

Is CMM looking a lot better than last year?