Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[twabby]

Connor Brown is definitely wait-and-see UFA for me. I think his reputation far exceeds his on-ice results to date and there’s no reason to buy high on him when middle 6 wing is probably the easiest position to get on the cheap.

Orlov and Jensen should be the priorities in that order. They’re likely to drop off in the next few years but given Ovechkin’s contract losing either of them in the hopes that internal options can match their impact starting next year seems foolish. Both of these guys are high-end NHLers and it’s not easy to find players that can step into their roles. See Fehervary last year and the immense struggles he had, despite the team thinking he would be ready for top 4 duty. There’s no reason to think at this point that Iorio, Kenny Chesney, Johansen, or anyone else won’t struggle either.

 

[Langway]

Jensen over Brown is likely the right call, yes. It's all TBD aside from Orlov barring sweetheart demands.

With Brown it's more under the assumption he does fit well in the top six and provide a strong two-way system fit. But we'll see about that and even then it depends on the numbers. The other thing gained by confidence in internal options is greater leverage in these situations. They shouldn't be afraid of the idea of sticking to their guns if need be.

If they keep their priorities straight and operate with some foresight they should be well positioned to add a key piece (ideally up front). With the cap set to raise reportedly significantly in coming years they could be well positioned to restructure in some key ways and tweak the mix. Mantha is up in two years, Oshie in three. So it's not like they've got loads of term on the books should they want to shake up the mix.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Buy high on Brown? We already paid to acquire him lol. And EVERYONE is wait and see….This talk is assuming they all have good seasons.

Also, why are we looking to fill important positions “on the cheap”? Lame strategy. I’d rather pay for the players that produce, so let’s see.

I wouldn’t pay Jensen a ton. If he’s willing to give a discount (off UFA pricing) to stay, let’s talk.

predictions on his cost? Paying him in the Dillon price range seems like a scary thought to me….

 

[DWGie26]

Your last comment is spot on for me. I’d like to see guys like Protas, Snively, and McMike take over for some of the vets so they can have the flexibility to add another top six forward. Oshie is probably done as a top six guy and if not this year then likely next year. If they’re really ruthless they should probably move Oshie after this year and re-sign Brown to fill his role and then find that new top six winger. Mantha is a wild card as well — he needs to produce this year.

Orlov I think has to be their top priority. He’s the least replaceable of all UFAs and their best all around defenseman to boot. Love what Jensen has developed into but if he’s looking for more than three years is that a good idea? What if Iorio tears up Hershey and Chesley has a great freshman campaign at Minnesota? They have to lean in to some of these young guys in order to extend the window by acquiring a Timo Meier or someone similar who can take the burden off of Ovechkin and Kuznetsov and flip the script from a play driving perspective.

To their credit they have a host of young guys who look like they are going to be solid NHLers. You’d hope that there’s a top six stud in there as well between Lapierre, McMike, Protas, Miro, or Snively.

Yep… spot on. Going to come down to cap and term for most of those vets. Jensen is going to be the most difficult because people will pay him. I think the same for Sheary.

Orlov the most important but i have a feeling he will sign a favorable contract with Caps. Maybe only 2-3 years. Wants to be here with OV. Strong ties to Russia and I think he wants to play in the KHL. Would like to see 2-3 years at $6M which would be good value. I hope Fever gets a bridge deal for 2 years and then we can pay him big when Cap goes up significantly as has been reported.

 

[DWGie26]

Jensen over Brown is likely the right call, yes. It's all TBD aside from Orlov barring sweetheart demands.

With Brown it's more under the assumption he does fit well in the top six and provide a strong two-way system fit. But we'll see about that and even then it depends on the numbers. The other thing gained by confidence in internal options is greater leverage in these situations. They shouldn't be afraid of the idea of sticking to their guns if need be.

If they keep their priorities straight and operate with some foresight they should be well positioned to add a key piece (ideally up front). With the cap set to raise reportedly significantly in coming years they could be well positioned to restructure in some key ways and tweak the mix. Mantha is up in two years, Oshie in three. So it's not like they've got loads of term on the books should they want to shake up the mix.

Jensen is all about the market. I like him on a team friendly deal. If he decides to leave, that probably means resigning TVR and he plays 2RD with Iorio coming in on third pair. We have a whole season to evaluate Strome and Brown and then the chips will fall.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yep… spot on. Going to come down to cap and term for most of those vets. Jensen is going to be the most difficult because people will pay him. I think the same for Sheary.

Orlov the most important but i have a feeling he will sign a favorable contract with Caps. Maybe only 2-3 years. Wants to be here with OV. Strong ties to Russia and I think he wants to play in the KHL. Would like to see 2-3 years at $6M which would be good value. I hope Fever gets a bridge deal for 2 years and then we can pay him big when Cap goes up significantly as has been reported.

I can’t see the financial sense in Orlov taking a short-term deal. Believe it when I see it. His advisors should immediately shit on that plan. I’m expecting to pay him $7 mil….for 4-5 years.

I would also explore a longterm deal with Fever and if not, bridge him. They need some strike early/low AAV deals to work out IMO.

 

[traparatus]

Exactly what I've been saying. This is the final year of the window for a LOT of players on this team and that was clearly always the plan.

So all the panic and shrieking about the front office being clueless about youth and having no idea what's going on with talent etc etc....it's horseshit. They're going to ride or die with the largely veteran group of Lavi's making until it falls apart or wins the Cup, and then they'll adjust with guys in the pipeline plus a few FAs, most likely.

There is ZERO point in getting bent out of shape about youth, speed, skill, etc this year. It's the "show me" season for half the team as well as the coach. And was always meant to be.

So they have a plan. So what? That plan hasn't produced a playoff series win in ages. Not even close. All of this sounds like blindly defending management because they are management.

 

[DWGie26]

I can’t see the financial sense in Orlov taking a short-term deal. Believe it when I see it. His advisors should immediately shit on that plan. I’m expecting to pay him $7 mil….for 4-5 years.

I would also explore a longterm deal with Fever and if not, bridge him. They need some strike early/low AAV deals to work out IMO.

I did say sneaky suspicion. It’s not market for sure. I don’t know that it is about the money and fame for Orlov.

The reason to bridge Fever is because Cap still tight the next two years. Then it goes up. Good for both sides on timing. But he will be more expensive on that 8 year deal after bridge for sure.

 

[g00n]

So they have a plan. So what? That plan hasn't produced a playoff series win in ages. Not even close. All of this sounds like blindly defending management because they are management.

I said they have a plan and they're following it, so the complaints about mgmt's ignorance about youth/speed/etc are probably bullshit if people are using the roster and ice time disparity as proof mgmt is clueless.

That's not apologizing for mgmt it's pointing out the flaw in that line of thinking. If the team sucks shit and Lavi and GMBM get fired, so be it.

But the view from the top --Ted and GMBM--seems to be allowing this set of mostly veterans to gel as a unit under the same coach for 4 years, as they did before with Trotz, and then rebuild or retool as necessary.

That's why so many contracts, including the coach, are up now.

If you all want to be angry every single day and pissed off at Lavi or whoever because your pet prospect isn't getting on the ice, that's your choice. But if you're using the roster/line decisions as a barometer about how they manage personnel I'm telling you you're not seeing the big picture.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[DWGie26]

So they have a plan. So what? That plan hasn't produced a playoff series win in ages. Not even close. All of this sounds like blindly defending management because they are management.

But it did produce a playoff team while many people thought they would spiral down. I want to win playoff series as well. But I don’t think it was because the plan was bad. Major change this year. Major change again next year while keeping the core in tact. You may not like the “Core” plan but that isn’t going to change No matter how much shade you throw.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I did say sneaky suspicion. It’s not market for sure. I don’t know that it is about the money and fame for Orlov.

The reason to bridge Fever is because Cap still tight the next two years. Then it goes up. Good for both sides on timing. But he will be more expensive on that 8 year deal after bridge for sure.

Has nothing to do with fame….he‘s in his prime and underutilized for his skill set (could be an all situations regular for other team). It’s about the financial security of his family, and not taking a deal with long term risks some portion of that security.

The Caps are about to enter their greatest period of turnover and financial flexibility in 10 years….I think they can plan enough to squeeze in a 6/7/8 year $4 Mil per deal for Fever (totally spitballing on numbers).

 

[traparatus]

I said they have a plan and they're following it, so the complaints about mgmt's ignorance about youth/speed/etc are probably bullshit if people are using the roster and ice time disparity as proof mgmt is clueless.

That's not apologizing for mgmt it's pointing out the flaw in that line of thinking. If the team sucks shit and Lavi and GMBM get fired, so be it.

But the view from the top --Ted and GMBM--seems to be allowing this set of mostly veterans to gel as a unit under the same coach for 4 years, as they did before with Trotz, and then rebuild or retool as necessary.

That's why so many contracts, including the coach, are up now.

If you all want to be angry every single day and pissed off at Lavi or whoever because your pet prospect isn't getting on the ice, that's your choice. But if you're using the roster/line decisions as a barometer about how they manage personnel I'm telling you you're not seeing the big picture.

Seriously, everybody gets what the plan is. Some people, myself included, simply don't think it's a great plan.

After years of watching the team come up well short of any playoff success, I think it's fully justified.

 

[DWGie26]

Has nothing to do with fame….he‘s in his prime and underutilized for his skill set (could be an all situations regular for other team). It’s about the financial security of his family, and not taking a deal with long term risks some portion of that security.

The Caps are about to enter their greatest period of turnover and financial flexibility in 10 years….I think they can plan enough to squeeze in a 6/7/8 year $4 Mil per deal for Fever (totally spitballing on numbers).

If we need to sign Orlov for 5y/7M then i do that in a heartbeat. He will go to KHL before it ends and he has said he wants to play there. His family has plenty of financial security. So Maybe 3x7M. Just a hunch he’ll do shorter term.

For Fever, just to spitball more numbers, I think a bridge is 3-3.5M and 8 year is 5.5-6M now. Probably 6-8M in two years for an 8 year deal. And I am in favor of dolling that out.

 

[g00n]

Seriously, everybody gets what the plan is. Some people, myself included, simply don't think it's a great plan.

After years of watching the team come up well short of any playoff success, I think it's fully justified.

Apparently some people clearly don't get the plan, and that was my point.

Whether or not it's a good plan, or being executed very well, is a different matter.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If we need to sign Orlov for 5y/7M then i do that in a heartbeat. He will go to KHL before it ends and he has said he wants to play there. His family has plenty of financial security. So Maybe 3x7M. Just a hunch he’ll do shorter term.

For Fever, just to spitball more numbers, I think a bridge is 3-3.5M and 8 year is 5.5-6M now. Probably 6-8M in two years for an 8 year deal. And I am in favor of dolling that out.

he just turned 31. Feels like he could play here for 5 then head back to KHL for last 1-3 years…


you don’t know his finances lol….easy for us to say his security is fine….lol.

 

[Jags]

Do people think the difference between first round loss and Cup winner is CMM?

No. Do you think the difference between losing in the first round or winning the Cup in 2023 is Lars Eller? Are either of these guys the difference between making the playoffs or not?

The "He has to prove it!" crowd has to concede that the kid proved a lot last year. CMM at center wasn't that big a sample, but in that sample he was the better player. Not by a mile, and it's apples/oranges because their styles/skillsets aren't all that similar, but CMM proved he can do it.

If McMichael adds a little more finish and sandpaper to his game, he's easily the better player at even strength. And as good on the PK as Eller may still be, we've got good penalty killers without him. The things McMichael currently lacks are not things he's going to pick up in the AHL. The kind of finish and fight his game needs requires NHL linemates and competition. You can't teach an NFL receiver to take the hit and catch the ball across the middle playing flag football with a CFL team.

If Eller was clearly the better player and were gifting this kid his spot instead to coddle him into playing NHL center, I'd agree wholeheartedly. But that's not the case. If Eller returns to form and McMichael shits the bed, the difference between them still wouldn't be all that staggering. One is a declining asset on his way out of town no matter what, and the other is a cost-controlled, improving and (hopefully) high-upside asset.

I like Eller a lot and will always appreciate what he contributed here, but he's standing in the way of progress now. We need more from that spot. Whether CMM is the solution or not, we have too much talent at wing to anchor a top-9 line with a center that can't score. Eller does not now and has never complemented the offensive talent of his wings. The only player to ever thrive on Eller's wing was Connolly, who did most of his scoring on his own, regardless of who he played with.

Eller's lack of general offensive awareness and modern offensive vision is a growing detriment to a team with the talent around him to score. Depth scoring is going to be crucial if we want to make any headway in the postseason. And like I said, if CMM isn't the solution there, fine. But the only way to find out is to give him the shot and see how he responds.

TL;DR: I'm no more interested in gifting the 3C spot to an aging offensive vacuum whose improving days are behind him and will absolutely be gone next year than I am in "gifting" it to anyone else. We know what we have in Lars Eller, and it's not good enough anymore if we really want a shot at competing for a championship. Sticking with Eller is settling. f*** that.

 

[g00n]

JFC going in circles. Never said Eller was the answer or entitled to anything.

Carry on with your panic mode.

 

[DWGie26]

he just turned 31. Feels like he could play here for 5 then head back to KHL for last 1-3 years…


you don’t know his finances lol….easy for us to say his security is fine….lol.

He has made $40M across his 4 contracts. And he will make more so I sure hope he has financial security.

 

[Jags]

JFC going in circles. Never said Eller was the answer or entitled to anything.

Carry on with your panic mode.

Yeah, tons of panic in that post.

You implied others were arguing that CMM was the answer or entitled to something, which is an equal helping of bullshit to what you're rolling your eyes at right now.

No one thinks McMichael is the second coming. What people advocating for him clearly want is to stop committing to players that don't move the needle anymore. We've tilted at the same windmill four years in a row now with the same roster and the same result. Maybe let's at least pretend that we're interested in trying another approach.

With specific regard to the "McMichael vs. Eller" thing, what he hell was EVER so special about Lars Eller that anyone would want to curtail the development of a kid that's supposed to be one of our top prospects? Do we just like watching our best young players kick ass in someone else's sweater? That's a weird kink, but you do you.

 

[RedRocking]

Um, so what about Protas over Eller? Protas is doing all the things to get noticed and make it really hard to keep him out of the lineup.

He probably isn’t as natural at C as CMM. But he might be better at wing right now, which might make it easier to work him in.

Would that satisfy the “play young guys with upside” crowd, or does it have to be CMM?

 

[DWGie26]

I wouldn’t have predicted this last year or going into training camp, but I NOW think that it is very possible CMM gets sent to Hershey and Protas stays. Means Eller at 3C and Protas probably at 3LW. Or he could play in Top 6 on right instead of Sheary. Protas has looked more NHL ready than CMM.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I wouldnt send CMM to the AHL. Let hom practice with the NHL players

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

are we not on TV again tonight?? lol

 

[twabby]

Um, so what about Protas over Eller? Protas is doing all the things to get noticed and make it really hard to keep him out of the lineup.

He probably isn’t as natural at C as CMM. But he might be better at wing right now, which might make it easier to work him in.

Would that satisfy the “play young guys with upside” crowd, or does it have to be CMM?

Yes. Play the best players, and the players with the higher upside that could make an impact in the top 6/9. If that’s Protas over CMM then go for it!

For what it’s worth in his small sample size last year Protas showed very well statistically.