Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[Calicaps]

I don’t really get the argument that Eller’s performance was due to a rotating cast of teammates. Unless you’re also going to make that same argument with McMichael, who probably saw even more inconsistent linemates and definitely more inconsistent ice time.

Of course the difference is McMichael was still able to drive play despite no consistency and no trust, while Eller didn’t really.

I’d put Eller at 4 LW, and make Johansson the healthy scratch. Eller will still get a bunch of ice time at 4LW.

This is where the experience factor matters. Yes it's true for both, plus Eller's covid woes. But Lars then gets the bigger benefit of the doubt because he's demonstrated his usefulness at length. That doesn't mean CMM shouldn't get a chance to show what he can do, but his is a different bar. For Eller, it's show you can still do the job. For McMichael, it's show you can do the job at all. The second one of those comes with less trust and more to prove.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t really get the argument that Eller’s performance was due to a rotating cast of teammates. Unless you’re also going to make that same argument with McMichael, who probably saw even more inconsistent linemates and definitely more inconsistent ice time.

Of course the difference is McMichael was still able to drive play despite no consistency and no trust, while Eller didn’t really.

I’d put Eller at 4 LW, and make Johansson the healthy scratch. Eller will still get a bunch of ice time at 4LW.

I don’t love that argument either….fact is, neither of them played well enough….COVID is a much better excuse for Eller.

 

[Raikkonen]

Protas looks like he could be 3C next year instead of Lars and team won't miss a beat. Never seen some special defensive abilities from CMM, he's weaker physically obviously, and how come he's better player?

there is Strome who could be long term 2nd liner perhaps, and how CMM will show he's better for 2C?

then there is Jimi...

the centermen logjam before CMM is a very tough hill to get on already. as it seems after preseason game 2 at least

I'm sure Protas has a place on the roster not later than next season. can any of you say this about CMM without any doubt?

so there is LW path then.

or trade.

if they send him down I'd prefer them to send protas too just to keep their morale high enough

if they send down only one... CMM has not many games to show he shouldn't be one

not ideal, but it is what it is

I'd not blame Lavi

 

[twabby]

This is where the experience factor matters. Yes it's true for both, plus Eller's covid woes. But Lars then gets the bigger benefit of the doubt because he's demonstrated his usefulness at length. That doesn't mean CMM shouldn't get a chance to show what he can do, but his is a different bar. For Eller, it's show you can still do the job. For McMichael, it's show you can do the job at all. The second one of those comes with less trust and more to prove.

But again what is Eller’s realistic ceiling entering next year? A pretty good 3C? That’s hardly going to move the needle even in the best case scenario where he returns to his old form. They need to give high-upside players runway to grow because it’s been the top of the lineup that has fallen behind the rest of the contenders in the NHL, not their depth.

Repeating the same formula as recent years is likely going to lead to yet another first round exit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why wouldn’t his ceiling be “a good 3C”? That seems fine to me for Eller.

it’s clearly not going to be ”the same formula”. CMM just doesn’t move that needle much anyway IMO.….not yet.

let ‘em play it out….

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

But again what is Eller’s realistic ceiling entering next year? A pretty good 3C? That’s hardly going to move the needle even in the best case scenario where he returns to his old form. They need to give high-upside players runway to grow because it’s been the top of the lineup that has fallen behind the rest of the contenders in the NHL, not their depth.

Repeating the same formula as recent years is likely going to lead to yet another first round exit.

They want to become a retirement home.

 

[DWGie26]

Said this before…. Love the competition! It is healthy. Lavi haters think he has a one track mind. He does. #winning!

 

[traparatus]

Said this before…. Love the competition! It is healthy. Lavi haters think he has a one track mind. He does. #winning!

The argument would work better if Laviolette has done a bit more winning in his time in DC. The team hasn't achieved nearly enough for #winning to be the one and only track.

 

[Hivemind]

"CMM just needs to force the issue" - a portion of the Caps fans
CMM contributed more goals/60 and points/60 at 5v5 last year than TJ Oshie or Nicklas Backstrom. I'm not talking his fancy stats, On-Ice Goals For, expected goals, possession metrics or anything like that (and all those numbers are even better). I'm talking just his raw stats per minute of ice time he saw. How is that not forcing the issue?

He forced the issue last year, and Lavi still decided to give Carl Hagelin more ice time on a nightly basis. Even in the game in which Hagelin literally scored against his own team (in which CMM had scored a goal in the right direction).


(I'm also going to preempt any arguments about his defense with saying his defensive numbers are on the better of average, sometimes even great. Third lowest xGA on the team, trailing only Dowd and Leason. He gave up the fourth fewest High Danger Chances Against/60, trailing only Dowd, Hathaway, and Oshie. His shots/attempts against metrics were consistently between players like Eller and Hagelin. )

 

[Ridley Simon]

Why do people think Lars will have a bounce back year? He wasn’t injured last year, his shooting percentage was right in line with his career average, and he’s 33. Genuinely curious.

I think he will score his usual points. High 30’s. Same as he’s been.

 

[twabby]

Why wouldn’t his ceiling be “a good 3C”? That seems fine to me for Eller.

it’s clearly not going to be ”the same formula”. CMM just doesn’t move that needle much anyway IMO.….not yet.

let ‘em play it out….

It’s fine in a vacuum to have your 3C play like a good 3C.

But it doesn’t address the biggest problem that Washington has in their lineup right now: a cohesive and impactful top 6 lacking high-end playdrivers. They need to be swinging for the fences right now when it comes to player development and roster decisions especially at forward rather than playing it safe. Playing it safe has led to the playoff duds of late.

McMichael’s age and his metrics from last year suggest there’s a good chance he will make a big leap this year. He’s the type of player I’d give a lot of ice time to alongside legitimate wingers, and only pulling the plug on him when he shows he can’t handle it.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Agreed on all fronts.

Sheary in the top six is….something though. Gross.

Well, when you are missing 2 top 6 forwards, someone has to plug the holes.

 

[twabby]

Just to be clear I don’t really care about the preseason lineup. Everything I’m saying applies only to the regular season.

So I’m not officially criticizing the coaches (yet).

 

[Calicaps]

But again what is Eller’s realistic ceiling entering next year? A pretty good 3C? That’s hardly going to move the needle even in the best case scenario where he returns to his old form. They need to give high-upside players runway to grow because it’s been the top of the lineup that has fallen behind the rest of the contenders in the NHL, not their depth.

Repeating the same formula as recent years is likely going to lead to yet another first round exit.

Here's the thing. If one guy gives you a reliable 6/10 on the 3C meter (offense and defense and possession etc) and another guy might give you 8/10 but to date has only given 4/10, who do you choose?

Obviously this is a crude way to view it, but if you're trying to win you choose guy #1 because he's a known quantity. You can work with that.

Uncertainty is bad and it's plentiful, so you take certainty where you can get it. If you think Lars is gonna regain his basic form and be a reliable guy, taking the risk on CMM for some limited upside is probably not a prudent move.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Well, when you are missing 2 top 6 forwards, someone has to plug the holes.

Fair point.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

If Connor McMichael has 1,000,000 fans, I am one of them
If Connor McMichael has 1,000 fans, I am one of them
If Connor McMichael has 1 fan, it is me
If Connor McMichael has no fans, then I am no longer on Earth
From what's low to what is high I'm on team McMichael til the day I die

 

[trick9]

CMM is going to get his chances, even if he starts the season in Hershey, like he should if he doesn't win the top-9 spot straight from the camp. We are once again right up there as the oldest or one of the oldest teams in the league and several guys have nagging injury problems that force them out of the line-up sooner rather than later. Look at last season. We were missing basically half of our forward core at one point.

With a coach like Laviolette, he's going to have to force the issue. Being neck and neck against your veteran competition isn't going to be enough for Laviolette. But he's going to get his chances. If he doesn't, it's likely because we are staying healthy and winning games, which would be great.

 

[HTFN]

Here's the thing. If one guy gives you a reliable 6/10 on the 3C meter (offense and defense and possession etc) and another guy might give you 8/10 but to date has only given 4/10, who do you choose?

Obviously this is a crude way to view it, but if you're trying to win you choose guy #1 because he's a known quantity. You can work with that.

Uncertainty is bad and it's plentiful, so you take certainty where you can get it. If you think Lars is gonna regain his basic form and be a reliable guy, taking the risk on CMM for some limited upside is probably not a prudent move.

In games they're winning, sure. Probably.

In games they're losing it should be the opposite in equal measure but it's not, and prolonged failure to expose guys in those "safe" scenarios (where they can't lose a game more than it's already lost but they can, ideally, win one here and there) is why they will continue to have no experience worth hanging a hat on.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It’s fine in a vacuum to have your 3C play like a good 3C.

But it doesn’t address the biggest problem that Washington has in their lineup right now: a cohesive and impactful top 6 lacking high-end playdrivers. They need to be swinging for the fences right now when it comes to player development and roster decisions especially at forward rather than playing it safe. Playing it safe has led to the playoff duds of late.

McMichael’s age and his metrics from last year suggest there’s a good chance he will make a big leap this year. He’s the type of player I’d give a lot of ice time to alongside legitimate wingers, and only pulling the plug on him when he shows he can’t handle it.

So your strategy is make desperation moves? That’s what gifting lineup spots to unready guys is. Hard pass…


what they really need is some young guys to step up and show they’re ready to contribute, to take the guesswork out of it. Make the choices obvious.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The argument would work better if Laviolette has done a bit more winning in his time in DC. The team hasn't achieved nearly enough for #winning to be the one and only track.

You can only cook a great meal with the proper ingredients. The roster is what it is. I don’t think any other coach could have done much more with this aging roster and injuries….

winning and qualifying for the playoffs is the track. Puncher’s chance beyond that.

 

[twabby]

Here's the thing. If one guy gives you a reliable 6/10 on the 3C meter (offense and defense and possession etc) and another guy might give you 8/10 but to date has only given 4/10, who do you choose?

Obviously this is a crude way to view it, but if you're trying to win you choose guy #1 because he's a known quantity. You can work with that.

Uncertainty is bad and it's plentiful, so you take certainty where you can get it. If you think Lars is gonna regain his basic form and be a reliable guy, taking the risk on CMM for some limited upside is probably not a prudent move.

I’d take the guy who could give an 8/10, though I disagree with the premise that CMM was a 4/10 last year compared to Eller’s usual 6/10.

This isn’t the 2015-16 Capitals that lost because their depth couldn’t match the depth of other teams. This is a team whose high-end players don’t match up with high-end players from other teams. They need to be looking for all solutions to this problem, and unfortunately players like Eller and Johansson aren’t capable of driving high-end lines. Maybe McMichael can. His rookie season is in line with other players who have done so in the past.

And besides, I think Eller should be 4LW where he’ll still get plenty of ice time. So it’s not really an either/or situation. I do think Johansson should be riding the pine on the other hand.

 

[Cappy76]

Well, when you are missing 2 top 6 forwards, someone has to plug the holes.

We also acquired those 2 plugs for top 6 forwards this off-season in Brown and Strome. Sheary should not be seeing top 6 time

 

[g00n]

Do people think the difference between first round loss and Cup winner is CMM?

Seems like a disproportionate amount of hand-wringing over this topic.

No I'm not trying to stifle discussion...just getting perspective on where all our focus seems to be directed.

 

[Langway]

McMichael does need to prove where he belongs in the pecking order. Ideally for him it's at center but then Kuz/Strome/CMM as the top three centers are likely too soft. If at LW he needs to produce. While rate stats and underlying play paint an optimistic picture if Snively is finishing then Snively gets the spot. Or if Protas is being more of a forechecking load, etc. The production needs to speak for itself and if he doesn't produce in the pre-season it seems likely he won't dress on opening night. And that's probably how it should be unless he's downright dominant otherwise.

Their operating procedure is largely about strengthening weak links rather than attempting more ambitious elevation for what's a decidedly post-peak core. But then, again, I'm brought back to Gustafsson as an aggressive pinching system fit that ultimately still adds a weak link defensively. The reward is believed to be worth the risk--up to a point--but where is that up mentality front? Don't they need to at least manufacture McMichael/Snively as that depth scoring wild card ala past Burakovsky/Connolly/Sprongs but more reliable? To not prioritize that 5v5 for a Johansson is a waste. If they indeed have more fundamental tolerance for more aggressive D pinching then they should probably restructure to add a more capable one than Gustafsson. If that means trading Mantha plus for a Chychrun so be it I guess. If that's your approach go for it. Don't muddy the waters being wishy-washy.

Strome & Brown should provide a different feel in the top six but when it comes to Sheary/Johansson/Eller I think we know what we're likely to get...and it isn't likely to move the needle much. Working back from there they also don't seem prepared to undertake the risk to develop on the fly and turn it over to less proven commodities. Or else they should make the hard decisions and pave the way for it. It may not pay off but the ambition, boldness and confidence would be welcome. Conventional only pays off so far. While they just need to make the playoffs if that's the overriding goal too much can get sacrificed in the process. It always comes back to the vision and organizational cohesion. It's here that MacLellan needs to do a better job of checking and selectively amplifying how the coaches operate to better shape the agenda and get better results.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do people think the difference between first round loss and Cup winner is CMM?

Seems like a disproportionate amount of hand-wringing over this topic.

No I'm not trying to stifle discussion...just getting perspective on where all our focus seems to be directed.

It seems like they think he’s at least a potential difference-maker in winning a round…..I think that’s unlikely (up to now). There’s a lot of obsessing over CMM because we haven’t had a young super talented guy like this in a while….and this IS HF.